Remember when the Muslim Brotherhood was reckoned to be part of the movement for democratic change in Egypt? That was then. This is now. The New York Times reports that “Gaining Power in Parliament, Islamists Block a Cairo Protest”. Who could have seen that coming?
CAIRO — The Muslim Brotherhood flexed its muscles here on Tuesday as hundreds of its young members linked arms to block a protest march from reaching Parliament while its lawmakers inside dominated the selection of leaders for legislative committees …
The protesters had set out to demand that Egypt’s military rulers surrender power now, before a new constitution is drafted and without any guarantees of immunity from prosecution. But when they confronted the Brotherhood barrier, they quickly shifted their ire to the new target.
Advertisement“The people want the fall of the Brotherhood,” they chanted. “No Brotherhood, no officers. Down, down with military rule!”
The confrontation was a vivid illustration of the inversion in the Brotherhood’s status. Once outlawed and persecuted, the Islamist group is now the party in power, with half the seats in the newly elected Parliament.
Civilian members of the Brotherhood are even playing the role of informal police officers in keeping the peace, as they did during demonstrations in Tahrir Square last week. On Tuesday, members of the central security police stood idly behind the Brotherhood’s lines, some officers leaning casually on riot shields.
Maybe the State Department can get the Muslim Brotherhood to help the US ambassador out. “Egypt’s justice minister said on Tuesday he had sent back a letter from the U.S. ambassador that asked for an end to a travel ban on Americans being investigated for alleged illegal funding of pro-democracy groups.” America is only the biggest aid donor to Egypt, which is kind of nice for the Muslim Brotherhood because they’re going to have money to spend. You would think that the MB should be going out of its way to do America a favor.
You would think. But why isn’t it happening?
Punidits in the capital are perplexed. The Washington Post thunders, in an editorial, that Egypt shouldn’t keep believing that America can be kicked in the teeth and like it because Washington just might turn off the money to the Army.
There is a grotesque incongruity in the tour around Washington this week of an Egyptian military delegation even as seven Americans who work for congressionally funded pro-democracy groups are prevented from leaving Cairo and threatened with criminal prosecution. What makes it worse is that the ruling military council refuses to recognize the seriousness of the crisis it has created in the U.S.-Egyptian alliance.
But maybe the “ruling military council” probably recognizes the seriousness of the crisis just fine. It’s just that, unlike the Washington Post, they are probably betting that the administration will keep handing out the money however hard they get poked in the eye. After all, it is still “friends” with Pakistan in spite of what the Land of the Pure has done to its nearest and dearest Western ally. And if you can be friends with Pakistan, how can you even have enemies?
Already the administration is taking the line that it’s Bush’s fault.
Administration officials say Gen. Tantawi has been warned repeatedly that the aid money is at risk. But they tend to blame Congress, which attached conditions to the 2012 military funding over the administration’s objections. Before aid is disbursed, the administration is required to certify to Congress that Egypt is holding free elections and protecting freedom of expression and association.
It’s a sad day indeed when President Obama has to hide behind the comparative resolution of Congress (only when compared to himself) to stiffen his spine. “They’re gonna make me do it!” he says. But the Egyptians have already got his number. They’ve got him figured out. Thus, they are probably betting that the administration will certify that Egypt has met every possible test of democracy and expression whatever they do since up until now he’s never missed a chance to stand up to Congress nor an opportunity to cave to foreign tyrants.
Now they say Egypt is bankrupt and sinking fast. “Unlike in Libya, there’s no significant oil wealth in Egypt to tap.” Since the Arab Spring things have been going to hell in a handbasket. Anything that isn’t nailed down is being sold by the military for cash. You would think this is a sign of vulnerability.
Any warehoused resources or stocks that can be sold for cash are being liquidated, resulting in shortages of fuel, foodstuffs, and even medicines in a number of localities according to numerous reports. Egypt has a population of over eighty million, and it can’t support or feed its own; food imports are a necessity, and there is less and less money to do so, or for consumers to buy it even if it were available.
But quite the contrary, Egypt’s plight ties the administration’s hands. For the mismanagement can only mean — in the language of diplomacy and ‘engagement’ — that it is even more important than ever to support Egypt: to flood it with money, fill it with hope, to take the moral high ground so that the Muslim Brotherhood won’t extend its influence. If America uses food as a weapon it would marginalize the moderates and ruin the President’s leadership from behind in the Middle East.
Anyone who disbelieves this has only to look at North Korea. Guess who Pyongyang’s biggest food aid donor is?
Unfortunately the Muslim Brotherhood had this figured out even before the Washington Post could write an editorial. They know the iron rule of extortion: the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Be a nice guy and you get zip. Be the Muslim Brotherhood and the other hand and … as applied to Egypt this implies that the Copts get nothing; America gets nothing, but the Muslim Brotherhood gets everything. It’s been that way for so long under this administration that it’s probably established policy.
Well he did say “irreversible”, didn’t he?
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Maybe not so OT after all:
At least 73 people have been killed in fan clashes following a football match in the Egyptian city of Port Said, state television reports.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16845841
SF
Egypt is in thermal run away. As their situation deteriorates, they’ll seek more radical solutions through Islamic fascism. They won’t hit bottom until after their economy has zeroed out, they’ve lost a generation of children to famine and the Sinai peninsula has been reclaimed by Israel as a buffer zone. All the while, they’ll be blaming their misfortunes on the Americans and the Jews.
Under Mubarak, they were sitting on a knife edge. Now they are in free fall.
The “surprise” expressed by our Washington gnomes over the rise of the MB has to be a misquote or some kind of wierd play on words. The average 5th grader could have figured out that the entity with the most members and the most polished organization would win the greatest number of seats in an election.
This is high order idiocy at the highest levels of government (ours). I’ll bet dollars to donuts that the USA sends tons of grain and boatloads of money to Egypt, all of which will be consumed by the MB and used to fatten their jihadi minions for murder and mayhem. Gaza is the working model for this depraved diplomacy.
If we’re going to pay tribute to criminal states shouldn’t we get something back other than a poke in the eye? This administration’s dealings with Islamoworld are so preverse I have to wonder if maybe I’m the crazy one.
somehow i think this time they will be left holding the (empty) bag. is there any gain electorally for obama by helping them? no. any loss by not helping them ? no. hard to cut the DOD budget but not aid to pakistan and egypt. won’t take long to find out.
even if dc wanted to send in money and aide, who would deliver it, given the recent house arrests of american aide workers?
“The Washington Post thunders, in an editorial, that Egypt shouldn’t keep believing that America can be kicked in the teeth and like it because Washington just might turn off the money to the Army.” Hmmm…I thought Islamists were good? That’s what Jackson Diehl or one of the other columnists tried to tell ignorant conservatives fearful of the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule as a step on the Mideast’s path to democracy. Or at least Islamists are good if they’re fighting al-Assad who’s backed by Russia. Cuz we all know who is pervey vrag or enemigo numero uno for Pravda on the Potomac…Russia.
This must be somewhat the way the people of Constantinople had it shafted to them as their leaders bribed their future’s away until Islam no longer wanted just the loot! Ya once again slow motion train wrecks and the smart ones are as deaf and blind as the dead are and yet we (the pee-ons) will be the ones to suffer most.
So, when are they going to storm the American Embassy and take hostages?
Egypt is spiraling further out of control. Fast.
Since this administration can’t negotiate its way out of a paper bag, the “detained” aide workers are or will soon become hostages, as the MB demands food and money (and Obie’s continued support) in exchange for their release.
“The “surprise” expressed by our Washington gnomes over the rise of the MB has to be a misquote or some kind of wierd play on words.” Peter, they’ll be just as ‘surprised’ when the MB takes over post-Assad Syria, even if Assad can be persuaded to step down peacefully and a mass slaughter of Alawites does not result. The neocons are always ‘surprised’.
“If America uses food as a weapon it would marginalize the moderates and ruin the President’s leadership from behind in the Middle East.”
So, NOT giving away food, is using it as a weapon, and instead we should INCREASE the funds we send to a country that hates us, hates our ally Israel, And only made peace with them because we had to start bribing them to do so?
Yes, things are unravelling quickly, too quick for our State Dep’t to respond to them, apparently…
And, somehow, the US gov’t still cannot manage to cut ANY part of the (never passed by the Senate) budget, and continue to borrow billions every day.
Don Rodrigo @ 7 asked:
“… when are they going to storm the American Embassy and take hostages?”
The American embassy in Cairo is referred to by the locals as “The Castle”. The American embassy is seen by the locals as a symbol of all that is evil in the West. A repeat of what happened to the American embassy in Tehran is almost a dead certainty if the Islamic fascists take over in Egypt (which seems likely).
After the fascists take over in Egypt and if it was up to me, I’d pull all American citizens out of the US Embassy and replace them with foreign mercenaries and Coptic Egyptians. I’d have the Copts do all the public interaction and release them from their contract as soon as things got really ugly. However I’d contract the mercenaries to keep the embassy open for business until the bitter end. There would be a clear understanding that if they were captured by the Islamists then they would be on their own. I would also provide the mercenaries with state-of-the-art infantry weapons and body armor.
White South African mercenaries are among the world’s best. They could probably shoot their way out of an embassy hostage situation, blend into the local population and maneuver their way back to South Africa. Gaddafi probably used white South African mercenaries up until the end of his regime. Hardly an endorsement, but given how hated Gaddafi was, it shows how good his mercenaries were that they kept him alive for as long as they did.
If only I owned the copyright on headlines including, “In a Completely Unexpected and Surprise Development.”
The Donks still haven’t figured out why the Iranians released their hostages during Reagan’s inauguration.
While I don’t agree with all of Confederate H’s points, he is on to something when he suggests that at the elitny level the R and D labels are shed and both sides start playing patty cake with each other.
Witness one of the primary donors to the PAC backing Mitt Romney and thrashing Newt also being a major backer of Talking Points Memo, an otherwise forgettable pro-Democrat collection of hacks site founded by one Joshua Micah Marshall in D.C. :
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/marc-andreessen-venture-capitalist-helped-bankroll-tpm-donates-222324769.html
What’s the connection? As far as I can tell, only fierce defense of The Almighty Status Quo, complete with money printing, Washington remaining bloated in both its welfare and warfare apparats.
All the sneering about Ron Paul supporters being neo-Wilsonians or somesuch seems rather odd and beside this main point. Fiat money is basically the money changing at the heart of the Temple of Almighty Government.
o/t
Sorry but the Chrysalis free Kindle download has been suspended due to a mysterious glitch at their end. Will put up a different free book tomorrow.
Thanks,
Walt
LOL.
I suspect that Ray LaHood’s son is stuck over there advising the MB how to cash in on “smart power”. He is likely advising that all the MB has to do is suggest they have a design for an electric car with a solar panel roof and a little windmill on the antenna. Team 44 will send millions and all the wheat in flyover country for some of that.
re: Port Said riots.
This is football – ostensibly a game, and apparently no one is starving yet. Imagine what things will be like when there’s no food. No, really. No food. None.
At this juncture, we can only know one thing for certain. According to Barack Obama and the New York Times, it will be George W. Bush’s fault – and that darned obstructionist Republican congress. And they will show us the small suffering children. And it will all be the fault of these greedy, evil men.
Wait for it.
Apple pie and motherhood
Mean nothing to the Brotherhood
They have the power now and mean to stay
In power for a good long time
Because it’s been a long, hard climb
From where they were to where they are today
Mubarak looked at them askance
He never asked them once to dance
Always the bridesmaid, they were never kissed
In darkness with Mubarak there
They got only that mile long stare
But now he’s gone and never will be missed
Oh yes they have the power now
And at their feet the camels bow
The pyramids shine like the stars at ight
The Nile with golden flecks will flow
And Cairo will be all aglow
Ablaze with Allah’s fierce and holy light
So, when are they going to storm the American Embassy and take hostages?
More likely they’ll storm the American Embassy and take refuge.
bad week to give up sniffing glue
catholic high school girls in trouble
Study by an individual in even the most cursory and briefest of fashions will reveal the intent of the Muslim Brotherhood; “a movement for democratic change in Egypt” being laughable in its naivety in light of the Brotherhood’s relationship with Nazi Germany, the tenets of Islam it embraces, etc.
And by laughable I mean immediately so when “Muslim Brotherhood” and “democratic change” are mentioned in the same breath.
Everyone please read my web page at http://www.mybetteramericaplan.com to see why the revolutions that are engulfing the world will continue into the future in many countries in many ways. The young will rise up against oppression. No dictator or ruling class or party will supress them. The decade of revolution is upon us. Read my web page to see the ONLY way for America to solve it revolution by creating a whole new government.
Ron 22
Please go away.
22. Ron McCune
Is the web page satire?
13. Viktor (not that Victor)
While I don’t agree with all of Confederate H’s points, he is on to something when he suggests that at the elitny level the R and D labels are shed and both sides start playing patty cake with each other.
……….
You guys are in company with George Soros who says there’s not much difference between Romney and Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/01/30/george_soros_not_much_difference_between_romney_and_obama.html
Philippines: 3 most-wanted terror leaders killed
http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-3-most-wanted-terror-leaders-killed-065359040.html
Ron 22,
All I can say is “Wow!”
You indeed put a lot of work into creating this epic tome. I have never seen such a clear example of obsessive manic insanity in my entire life. You are to be commended.
Let’s look at what we know, what we can reasonably assume, and what we might profitably speculate about possible motivations for what is going on. Items 1-6 summarize what we know for sure.
1. The primary national interest that the US has in Egypt is assuring that our Navy has full and unimpeded transit through the Suez Canal. Continued peace between Egypt and Israel is also an important interest. We also have other interests, but they are secondary.
2. Both of our key national interests rest on strong relations with the Egyptian military.
3. From hard experience, the Egyptian military has learned the advantage of remaining in the background — “the power behind the throne” as it were.
4. Much of the Egyptian economy is controlled by the top brass of the Egyptian military, active and retired. Bakeries and cement plants are, for example, among the “strategic industries” under their control. Hence, this elite, which calls itself “The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF),” controls wealth as well as power.
5. Last year we provided decisive support to a coup by the SCAF against President Mubarak, including extensive preparations prior to the coup, assistance in operations during the coup, and perhaps most importantly – the propaganda cover of the so called “Arab Spring.”
6. SCAF’s top guy, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, is effectively head of state at this time. The MB has agreed to support him and his people in their current roles for the next six months. Hence, we are dealing with SCAF, not the Islamists, in this situation.
Those are facts. Assumptions and speculations follow.
7. We might reasonably assume that increasing friction between the SCAF and Washington has reached a serious level. We know that Egypt was annoyed by Washington’s recent decision to bypass Egyptian bureaucracy by fast tracking $65 million to several NGOs without getting approval. More important, we know that the entire annual aid package to Egypt has been put at risk by a Senate action taken last December. We also know that some in Washington are annoyed by reports that Tantawi has become very comfortable in his role as Egypt’s dictator. It’s probably not reasonable, however, to assume that these frictions, by themselves, provide the full motivation for Egypt’s actions.
8. We might speculate that its all about money. Egypt faces a financial crisis and may be seeking a handout. Action against the NGO’s might be seen in Cairo as providing leverage without threatening America’s primary interests.
9. We might speculate that its all about power. Tantawi has observed the effectiveness of the NGO’s in getting rid of Mubarak. He might see getting rid of the NGO’s as a prudent action as he consolidates power as the new dictator.
10. Or we might speculate that, like the “Arab Spring” of 2011, this is simply more theater – the public show that provides cover for private agreements.
13. Viktor (not that Victor)
While I don’t agree with all of Confederate H’s points, he is on to something when he suggests that at the elitny level the R and D labels are shed and both sides start playing patty cake with each other.
Witness one of the primary donors to the PAC backing Mitt Romney and thrashing Newt
also being a major backer of Talking Points Memo, an otherwise forgettable pro-Democrat collection of hacks site founded by one Joshua Micah Marshall in D.C. :
—
50k from Netscape baby Marc Andreeson makes him
“one of the primary donors to the PAC backing Mitt Romney and thrashing Newt”
…in what Universe?
—
Further evidence that Andreeson is one of Mitt’s “primary donors”
22. Ron McCune
“Black and dark skinned people will probably have to have the tattoo put elsewhere if the tattoo on the buttocks cannot be seen. Maybe locate it on the bottom of their feet, but only if it won’t disappear with time.”
Thank you Ron, for your invaluable contribution.
Israel is looking into building a railway from the port of Eilat in the Red sea to the Med. The rail would provide an alternative for cargo which could be picked up by a second ship at the Haifa port. A backup plan should there be difficulties with the Suez canal. India and China are interested in the plan.
To be practical it would also serve to transport visitors to the resorts in Eilat.
One thing the Israelis should be doing is beefing up the naval port in the Red Sea and maybe stationing one or more subs there. It is possible that the Egyptians will blockade the Suez to Israel navy.
Again, with Wretchard’s kind permission, I invite all Belmont Clubbers who are Amazon Prime members to download, free, and to own permanently, my mystery Philly Streets during the period 2 Feb thru 6 Feb. Click the link below to reach my Listmania page, where clicking on the title will take you directly to the book’s Amazon page.
I am growing uncomfortable posting these things, feeling I am taking advantage of Wretchard’s good nature, so this will be my last free book posting. Anyone interested in free Kindle books can find me at the Kindle Owners Lending Library. Thanks.
http://www.amazon.com/Walt-Erickson-s-Novels/lm/R1RT20GYEZD2FM/ref=cm_lm_byauthor_title_full
And now even the results of a soccer match are a basis for protest agianst the new “government”:
“CAIRO (AP) — Egyptians ranging from soccer fans to lawmakers blamed the country’s military rulers for a bloody post-match riot Thursday as anger mounted over the failure of police to stop the violence when a narrow stadium exit turned into a death trap in a seaside city north of the capital.
A network of soccer fans known as Ultras vowed vengeance, accusing the police of intentionally letting rivals attack them because they have been at the forefront of protests over the past year, first against former leader Hosni Mubarak and now the military.
Thousands of protesters converged on Cairo’s Tahrir Square — the epicenter of the uprising that ousted Mubarak last year — carrying the red flag of the city’s Al-Ahly soccer club and the national banner. They then marched to the nearby Interior Ministry to protest the police inaction and call for retribution for the 74 people who died in the world’s worst soccer violence in 15 years.
The protesters raised flags of Al-Ahly and Zamalek, another top team with its own Ultras group, and Egyptian flags. Some held black banners reading: “Mourning.”
Survivors and witnesses described people falling from the bleachers and other scenes of chaos after as fans from the local Al-Masry team in Port Said chased supporters of the visiting Al-Ahly club with knives, clubs and stones. Hundreds fled into the exit corridor, only to be crushed against a locked gate, their rivals attacking from behind.”
“Prime Minister Kamal el-Ganzouri, in an emergency parliamentary session, announced he had dissolved the Egyptian Soccer Federation’s board and referred its members for questioning by prosecutors about the violence.”
NOW there is effective action for you! Dissolve the Soccer Federation!
There’s nothing whatsoever wrong in Egypt. This is what normal rule of Arabs by Arabs looks like
spindok @ 30 said:
“Israel is looking into building a railway from the port of Eilat in the Red sea to the Med. The rail would provide an alternative for cargo which could be picked up by a second ship at the Haifa port. A backup plan should there be difficulties with the Suez canal.”
Someone in Israel is using their brain.
If the people of Egypt insist on being stupid then eventually they’ll tear up the Egyptian-Israelis peace accord. The main reason the Sinai Peninsula was given back to Egypt by Israel was because of the Egyptian-Israelis peace accord (the Sinai Peninsula was no longer needed as a buffer zone to protect against random attacks from Egypt). Egypt lost the Sinai Peninsula to Israel during the Suez Crisis in 1957 but Israel gave it back to Egypt as part of an international treaty. Egypt again lost the Sinai in the 1967 War but again Israel gave it back after the Egyptian-Israelis peace accord was agreed to. If the political process in Egypt becomes random due to Islamic fascism then Israel will be compelled to protect its border by reclaiming the Sinai Peninsula as a buffer zone. That process always results in the Suez Canal being shut down and loaded up with scuttled ships and naval mines.
Tearing up the Egyptian-Israeli peace accord for the Egyptians will be equivalent to putting a pistol barrel in their mouth and pulling the trigger. They’ll do this anyway because they want to be on good terms with Allah.
The Suez Canal is too important to world commerce to remain unusable due to religious idiocy. My guess is the international community will inform the Egyptians that they’ve used up their three chances and now they’re permanently out of the canal business. The Suez Canal will be declared a “neutral zone”, put under United Nations control and administered by an international military force. Tolls collected from ships passing through the canal would be paid towards this military force and maintenance of the canal. Maybe some token amount would be handed over to the Egyptians as a face-saving gesture. No doubt the Egyptians could derive some benefit from the money by building a few mosques or spending it on religious indoctrination at al Azhar university. It’s important to be a good terms with Allah.
Watching the “splats”, the Gooney bird landings, and all the sad farces of this Administration and its “Elite” enablers has put me in mind of the final musical scene of the movie, “All That JAZZ.” Last week I was informed that my youngest half-brother at the age of 55 had died of a drug overdose. It came as no surprise to anybody except my father who had enabled him and in the process had ruined his own finances and had borrowed money from family without telling the truth about what he was doing with it.
I don’t see dead people but I do see similarities.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNcl0L7eJUY
Egg @ 33: The Suez Canal will be declared a “neutral zone”, put under United Nations control and administered by an international military force.
Why stop there? Include the Straits of Hormuz. And to make it fair, the Panama Canal. Straits of Malacca – previously free, I believe. A little imagination might add three or ten more navigational chokepoints.
And then maybe large swaths of oil fields in SA and Iran and maybe Iraq. The Kurds might even like the idea, depending on the terms.
Bwaa-haa-haah!
–
The Israeli railroad might be a good idea, but I doubt it’s going to transport Israeli submarines, much less US aircraft carriers.
–
t @ 34: sorry to hear about your brother, difficult as it was the end has to come hard, be well yourself.
Josh @ 35, I understand that you’re being facetious but the folks who believe in one world government under socialism would fully agree with your suggestion.
Allowing the United Nations to administer anything is normally an act of desperation or stupidity. However it will be clear after Egypt has lost the Sinai for a third time that they should not be allowed to administer the Suez Canal. The question will then be “Who should administer the canal?”. The Egyptians and other Islamic states would not allow the Israelis, Europeans or the Americans to administer the canal (they’d show their displeasure by sinking ships in the canal through terrorist actions). Only an international entity would be allowed to run the canal.
toadold @ 34, Echoing Josh, sorry about your brother. It’s hard watching a family member self destruct. Usually “tough love” is the only solution when they go completely off the rails (particularly with drugs). However if the family member ends up dead, then the person administering the “tough love” will have serious guilt issues. There’s no obvious solution.
e @ 36: Josh @ 35, I understand that you’re being facetious…
This would establish the UN as the NWO and give it a revenue source.
Of course as soon as you establish that, they’d probably ban Israel from using it, then ban the US. Then probably fill them in to save the Sinai clam and the Hormuz minnow.
Still, if Obambus is given another four years, and if Europe doesn’t implode and Egypt does, then the Suez idea is good, and the generalization seems a natural second act. Maybe we can charge the world a fee for sliding down the slippery slope.
{Last year we provided decisive support to a coup by the SCAF against President Mubarak, including extensive preparations prior to the coup, assistance in operations during the coup, and perhaps most importantly – the propaganda cover of the so called “Arab Spring.”}
Sorry, NOT a fact. Not even close. Mubarak was the front man for the SCAF. So removing him and using him as a scapegoat was not a coup.
What do you mean we? You walk around with a mouse in your pocket? This administration was caught with it’s pants down. Obama, his strap hangers, the CIA, DIA, NSA, et. al. Were all left looking stooooooopid by the food riots, which the media dubbed the “Arab Spring”.
The MB took advantage of the food riots to overthrow the existing power structure in the Islamic crescent. That happened because like all rodents, they are fast on their feet. They depend on staying ahead of current events for survival.
Western Civilization is more dinosaur then rodent. The Dinosaur, when faced with a current event, either eats it or waits for it to go away.
I’m actually encouraged by current events.
Food riots end when enough rioters die to allow the rest to have enough to eat.
Government cannot end food riots. It can prevent them. So the government in Egypt has to survive for now, then work to prevent future food riots. No secrets here, the Chinese bureaucracy has manuals on how to do this dating back thousands of years.
What I find most encouraging is that Egypt is moving from a Kleptocracy to a ‘Good cop, bad cop’ Oligarchy such as we have in America. Only instead of Democrats and Republicans doing the ‘good cop, bad cop’ routine Egyptians will have the MB and the SCAF doing it.
Not only does this make for stable government, since the cop on top can always blame the other guy, but the Oligarchs become an elite, with power passed on to their children. So the Oligarchs of Egypt can turn to the Oligarchs of America, or Argentina and borrow a few million metric tons of wheat.
I don’t know why you feel obligated to attempt to rewrite history, but it won’t work. To much evidence of the confusion in the White House during the food riots.
Josh @ 37 said:
“… if Obambus is given another four years, and if Europe doesn’t implode and Egypt does, then the Suez idea is good…”
More likely, Obambus is given another four years and our economy gets hammered back to 8 July 1932. While that’s happening, the European Union disintegrates and Egypt becomes the new Caliphate with a 17th century economy and matching child mortality rate. Under that scenario, no one will care if the Suez canal is full of wrecked ships and naval mines.
stoicheion @ 38 said:
“This administration was caught with it’s pants down. Obama, his strap hangers, the CIA, DIA, NSA, et. al. Were all left looking stooooooopid by the food riots, which the media dubbed the “Arab Spring”.”
I agree with stoicheion’s comment. Obama made the mistake of believing in his own propaganda.
Stoicheion also said:
“What I find most encouraging is that Egypt is moving from a Kleptocracy to a ‘Good cop, bad cop’ Oligarchy such as we have in America. Only instead of Democrats and Republicans doing the ‘good cop, bad cop’ routine Egyptians will have the MB and the SCAF doing it.”
I do not believe the MB and SCAF can coexist. They may try but eventually the MB will be compelled by their religion to overreach. Egypt’s only long term hope is if the SCAF attempts a repeat of what Ataturk did for Turkey. That ultimately involved killing many Islamists and imposing a secular political system upon an unreceptive population.
Eggy, I would say you were correct except for the fact that Shitte and Suni have co-existed for over a thousand years. Their mutual hatred dwarfs anything the SCAF and the MB can muster. I’m sure once their mutual enemy (America) is finished, they will resume the ritual slaughter.
I hate to agree with Soros on anything but he’s correct. The differences between Mitt and Berry are not as pronounced as the similarities. I will vote against Mitt because I consider him a bigger threat then Berry.
Any politician willing to restore the Constitution is going to be stopped by the establishment. Change will only come thru armed revolution. I’m to old for that. So I’ll just wait for the young ones.
Watch
‘A Real Democratic State’:
Justice Ginsburg Praises the Arab Spring During Visits to Egypt and Tunisia
Ginsburg wrapped up a State Department-sponsored visit to Egypt on Wednesday with a public seminar at the Cairo University law school. The 78-year-old Ginsburg told students she was inspired by last year‘s protests that led to the end of Hosni Mubarak’s regime.
“This is the most wonderful time in which to live and be among the young people who are helping your country and bringing about change during this exceptional transitional period to a real democratic state,” Ginsburg said, according to the U.S. Embassy in Cairo. “Think of the people who lived before you and did not have this opportunity because they lived under a dictatorial regime.”
stoicheion@38 said: “Mubarak was the front man for the SCAF. So removing him and using him as a scapegoat was not a coup.”
You are half right. President Mubarak was the nominal leader of and front man for the SCAF. But, when a subordinate overthrows the top guy, what else do you call it if not a coup?
From the SCAF’s point of view, Mubarak had gone soft. Mubarak’s son, you may recall, was attempting to implement a policy of political reform which, if successful, would have shifted power away from the military to a civilian party. Further, Mubarak’s son was actively seeking foreign companies to invest in Egypt — more efficient companies than those owned and operated by the SCAF. Mubarak’s son was a threat to both the power and wealth of the SCAF. Removing Mubarak in the manner which we observed (a manner which might reasonably be called a “coup” imo) also removed his son from power and eliminated these threats.
stoicheion continued: “This administration was caught with it’s pants down. Obama, his strap hangers, the CIA, DIA, NSA, et. al. Were all left looking stooooooopid by the food riots, which the media dubbed the “Arab Spring”.
Dig a bit deeper. Beyond the usual MSM sources. You might notice the concern expressed by the NGO’s after the botched election in 2005, and items such as the reference in one of the wikileaks papers from 2007 mentioning student riots in 2011 and the selection of Mohamed El Baradei as nominal leader of the student rebellion at a meeting in Washington in 2010. You might notice that the leader of the coup, Tantawi, chose to be in Washington during the period of riots in Cairo.
No doubt, the timing of the events in Egypt was triggered by the coup in Tunis, and there certainly was an air of confusion. But even so, years of efforts by a number of US financed NGO’s were behind the calls for democracy in the riots last year. I suspect the difference between your perspective and mine will be greatly narrowed if you look into the activities of State Department supported NGO’s in Egypt between 2005 and 2011 and into Tankawi’s personal activities in Washington during the riots last year.
These NGO’s were nearly invisible during most of the uproar last year, but now that they are in the news again this background should be easier to come by.
BTW, from my perspective your version of events lets Obama off far too lightly. Looking stupid is no big deal. However, our active support of Tankawi’s coup against our long-term friend and ally Mubarak has done irreparable damage to our strategic interests. A monumental blunder, far worse than merely ‘looking stooooooopid.’
stoicheion continued: ” The MB took advantage of the food riots to overthrow the existing power structure in the Islamic crescent.”
A ha!! Now its my turn to borrow your words. I hope you won’t mind.
“Sorry, NOT a fact. Not even close.”
Today, SCAF holds the reins of power in Egypt, as it did during the Mubarak years. It has not been overthrown. Tankawi is the de facto head of state. SCAF rules Egypt. A leader of the MB said just a couple of weeks ago, that the MB would continue to accept this status quo for six months longer. The MB appears evolving into a “front” position, similar to that held by Mubarak before last February, assuming current trends continue.
I find the “good cop, bad cop” scenario interesting, but I doubt it would be stable. I agree with Eggplant@39 that one cop or the other will seek to dominate. If so, this means that Tankawi has limited time to bring the MB firmly under SCAF control. The clock is ticking. I’ve seen speculation in some quarters that Tankawi intends to trap the MB by giving them all the public trappings of power, but none of the tools, so that as the coming financial crisis unfolds the MB will get the blame for the suffering. Speculation is cheap and easy. We shall see what develops.
RWE @ 33 said, There’s nothing whatsoever wrong in Egypt. This is what normal rule of Arabs by Arabs looks like
Reminds me of something said by Edward Gibbon a couple of hundred years ago. To paraphrase: They yearn for freedom but do not know how to benefit from it.
When the food runs out, where does a fleeing Egyptian flee to? A quick look at the map shows the bordering countries to be Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. Possible destinations North across the Mediterranean Sea include Cyprus, Turkey, Greece, Albania and Italy. I can’t see welcome signs in any of these places.
The Egyptians are stuck with each other. That can’t be good.
@ stevesmith from “Cycle 25″ – sorry to move retrograde on the threads.
There sits the moon. Albedo 7% compared to earth’s 30-35%. Both would have temps of 5 C if they were blackbody radiators with zero reflectivity. Hence the local temps over 100 C on the sunny-side of the moon provide a rough scale of the effects that we can attribute to our atmospheric actions.
The reflected radiation from the glass roof of a real greenhouse is trivial compared to the effects of reduction of heat loss from convection. We need not get into a physics lessons and derive technical terms for mass transport of heat by earthworms that travel in and out, tunneling through the soil.
50k from Joshua Micah Marshall’s backer is just chump change for ole’ Mittens eh Doug? Well ok believe what you want to believe. EOT for me, hope I didn’t exceed my four.
If we had the national gumption, the solution to the Suez problem would be that (once Israel has taken the Sinai again), build a new canal about 20 miles east of the Suez, with a few high heavy bridges to move vehicular traffic across. Israel would then control both sides of the new canal, with the means to move armor in to protect the west side, and the mined and full-of-junk Suez would serve as a useful barrier to Egyptian attacks.
33. Eggplants
spindok @ 30 said:
“Israel is looking into building a railway from the port of Eilat in the Red sea to the Med. T
…………
I haven’t seen a map and I’m not familiar with the geography of the area except to know there’s mountains of biblical proportions in the Sinai…. but between the red sea and the Mediterranean–or going straight up the jordan river–and then cutting west…–is there a plausible route for a canal?
45. epignosis
Based on random statements that come to mind like “those in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones” and “through a glass darkly” and “this glass panes me” and “he raised his glass” – I surrender.
Walt @ 31: Free, hell, I purchased that last one. 99 cents? Cheap.
“Today, SCAF holds the reins of power in Egypt, as it did during the Mubarak years. It has not been overthrown.”
Did I just witness a public execution of your ‘coup’ theory? When the Obamanation swapped out press secretaries a while back was that a coup?
The revolution (Arab Spring) kicked off by the food riots is far from over.
SCAF is clinging desperately to power but the Egyptian army is not the Syrian or Iraqi army. The SCAF is limited in the orders it gives to what the troops will obey.
The MB knows that. I expect the fireworks to come late summer.
If one side or the other can secure LOTS of food, they will gain the upper hand.
I agree that this administration will get credit/blame for losing the Islamic crescent, or most of the rest of it.
Don’t get me started on NGO’s. I consider the MB an NGO, as well as Haliburton, Toyota, General motors and the Girl Scouts. Think about it.
Cousin Dave @ 47 said:
“… the solution to the Suez problem would be that (once Israel has taken the Sinai again), build a new canal about 20 miles east of the Suez, with a few high heavy bridges to move vehicular traffic across. Israel would then control both sides of the new canal, with the means to move armor in to protect the west side, and the mined and full-of-junk Suez would serve as a useful barrier to Egyptian attacks.”
Or the Israelis could go west of the Suez Canal to the edge of the Nile Delta and build a razor wire fence to keep out the Egyptians. The Israelis could then annex the Sinai Peninsula, rehabilitate the Suez Canal and collect canal tolls for themselves. Obvious problem with this idea is the Egyptians and sympathetic Arabs would launch constant raids against ships in the Suez Canal. Could the Israelis turn the length of the canal into a giant exclusion zone with a massive military presence? It occurs to me that the Arabs would use “suicide ships” to block the canal. Cargo ships loaded with ammonium nitrate soaked in diesel fuel would appear, pay their toll and then self destruct half way down the length of the canal. The Israelis would have to closely inspect every ship for scuttling charges. This maybe technically impractical because of the delay this would impose on every ship trying to use the canal. I do not think it is commercially feasible for the Israelis to run the Suez Canal due to the problem of sabotage.
Charles…
It’s nice that you should think upon it.
I’ve proclaimed that as THE solution since 1978 ish…
Last time I looked, Bibi’s government was seriously contemplating the rest of my proposal — previously posted here at the BC.
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Establish an island off the Gazan shore with the spoil from:
An ocean-level canal hard upon the Israeli-Sinai border…
Built and funded by the USA with a 99-year lease on the Sinai Canal and rights in perpetuity for the Gazan Island.
Adjunct to this…
Move the Gazans on down the coast to un-occupied Jordan, near Acaba — where it can finally be possible for them to make their way in the world — trading with the Near and Far East.
All such constructions would take a generation.
The path to the Dead Sea would be dug with the goal of bringing oceanic commerce further north — and of providing additional fresh water via those projects you so know and love.
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The weather there abouts is suitable for resorts — of which their seems to be no end of demand.
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In the meantime, the imposition of the USA between the players would shut down any talk of further Sinai campaigns. Neither party is, nor ever would be, able to take on the hyper-power.
Which would cause, at least the Egyptians, the players to look towards their economic prospects.
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America would pick-up a Sixth Fleet anchorage — and obviate the need to station a task force in the Eastern Med.
That’s a HUGE savings.
Further, we’d no longer need to impose upon the graces of others for advance positioning of war materials.
We’d be both in the Mideast and yet not upon Jewish nor Muslim lands. That’s a double-plus good.
Gaza Island would become Gitmo-east.
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This railroad idea is merely the fall-back to my main scheme. Without American $$$$ the canal can’t be built.
While it would eliminate the prospect of nuclear war: Sunni on Jews — it still wouldn’t resolve the Shi’ite drive.
You can’t have everything.
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To extend the thought:
International trade, particularly between India and Europe/America is going to EXPLODE in the generation ahead.
Suez will be entirely too small to handle this surge.
In an ideal world these two canals would evolve into one-way traffic.
Realistically, the USN has to make the case that America can’t be held hostage to mb islamists in Cairo for the transit of the Suez.
By definition, they’re going to deny us passage WHEN WE NEED IT MOST. ( Duh )
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Acaba could be a replacement for fractious Beirut — a city that cannot shed its civil war history.
It would/ could become the banking center that Dubai hopes to be.
Since Dubai is entirely despotic… there’s a real limit as to how many eggs global finance wants to put in that jar.
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I will admit that the nature of islam is to drive resolutely against pluralism. So I’m not at all optimistic that ANY muslim state can advance to pluralistic democracy; aka republicanism.
Stevesmith @ 49 – Apologies for being boorish. I don’t know what’s got my goat these few days.
C @ 48: I haven’t seen a map and I’m not familiar with the geography of the area except to know there’s mountains of biblical proportions in the Sinai…. but between the red sea and the Mediterranean–or going straight up the jordan river–and then cutting west…–is there a plausible route for a canal?
CANAL? No. Railroad – mebbe. The Israeli border with the Sinai – unfortunately is blocked at the Mediterranean end by Gaza. In a straight line from Eilat it looks about 200 miles, and there are some mountains about halfway there. So either the railroad would go 300 miles or more within Israel, or would be built with parts in the Sinai.
OTOH … the Suez canal is something like 100 to 120 miles long already, isn’t it? Maybe a 300 mile alternative would be reasonable. Just put in some marinas and casinos, salmon and shrimp farms, every 100 miles.
just develop technology/machinery that can clear a scuttled ship in under an hour, sell the salvaged parts and scrap metal to pay for that service.
Josh…
A little help:
There’s a scale on your link…
So the distance is approximately 110 miles, or less.
Having witnessed the power of modern equipment to move earth…
I just don’t regard the mountains as anything but a big fat target.
Slightly off-topic: There’s some interesting agitprop going on concerning the possibility of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear assets, refer to:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-israel-preparing-to-attack-iran/2012/02/02/gIQANjfTkQ_print.html
This is probably just MSM noise (some yarn that someone at the Washington Post cooked up for a 30 second sound bite). However it might be one last attempt by Israel to convince the Iranians to give up their nuclear ambitions (I doubt it). Another possibility is it’s a pathetic attempt by Obama to convince the Iranians not to blame the US after Israel takes out their nuclear assets. The shear stupidity of this last possibility gives it a “ring of truth”. No mater what the motivation behind the story, it is almost a sure bet that the Iranians will ignore it.
Re Eggplant @ 59: convince the Iranians not to blame the US after Israel takes out their nuclear assets
The Age of Proportionality is over. Whoever attacks Iran is going to have to go for the head of the snake. Hitting government officials and their supporting infrastructure is a whole lot easier than taking out deeply buried nuclear targets.
As the Japanese showed at Pearl Harbor, you can get one free shot in warfare. Make the most of it.
But I still have this niggling feeling that the push which brings down the transnational elite’s house of cards will come from an unexpected direction. Chavez goes mad in Venezuela? Hong Kong starts a civil war in China? Londoners riot again?
Big K…
Like the Guns of August…
Their downfall will be a WHITE SWAN.
Which do travel is flocks.
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As for Chavez… he’s long been mad…
Hong Kong’s financial provocations ( lowest cost gold ) have long been endured…
Londoners riot? — Only if its the home team — not the visitors.
51. stoicheion
I share your perspective on NGOs. However, the current focus is on a very small subset of the NGO universe, namely those which received direct or indirect funding from the US government to influence political reform in Egypt since 2005.
I also share your observation that SCAF may not be able to count on the loyalty of all elements in the Egyptian military in the evolving situation. I assume that SCAF is well aware of its vulnerability and that the two broad groups within the military most likely to put SCAF at risk are well penetrated by internal security. But surprises happen.
And, I agree yet again that the phrase “Arab spring” remains alive. But only as ongoing theater in the MSM and a propaganda vehicle for some of the players
I observe that SCAF owns the bakeries in Egypt, and we might expect these bakeries to play an important role in the developing situation (as they have in times of shortages in the recent past), so we also share a perspective on the importance of food in the developing political situation.
Finally, I have a confession to make. I looked up a dictionary and found that the definition of the word “coup” is now so broad in common usage that it could possibly apply to a change of Obama’s press secretaries – depending on the nature of his internal office politics. At any rate, my intent would have been better conveyed with less confusion had I described the key event in Egypt last February as a ‘coup d’etat.’ I suspect you disagree, but after arriving at a convergence of views on so many issues we both might take comfort in an unbridgeable difference on this one.
53. blert
Without American $$$$ the canal can’t be built.
……………
It’ll be +-10 years before the USA becomes energy independent and another half decade or so before the economy starts feeling the effects of extra money.
But in that time frame as well the Israelis will be laying in a very large cash cushion from their reserves off the coast of the eastern Mediterranean. That’s the kind of endowment that supports canal building.
I would argue that a similar project 10-15 years from now when the USA is funded again by oil independence–would consist of a vast piping system to skim off the top 10-20 feet of the Mississippi River to prevent flooding from April to June–the water would be pumped west to refill the Ogalala aquifer, and over the continental divide at South Pass in Western Wyoming to flow into the colorado basin.
One piece of technology would need to be invented by then. That would be portable thorium reactors that produced electricity for 1/4 to 1/10th the cost of coal plants.
blert @ 58: looked like more than 110 to me, the road to the border is not direct and gets 265km, so your estimate is probably pretty close.
Were you suggesting flooding the Dead Sea all the way up to sea level? That would flood the Jordan valley all the way past the Sea of Galilee? I’m sure someone has done the calculations, of how much of Israel, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon (?) would also be flooded? Might really help the canal idea, I suppose.
56. Josh
OTOH … the Suez canal is something like 100 to 120 miles long already, isn’t it? Maybe a 300 mile alternative would be reasonable. Just put in some marinas and casinos, salmon and shrimp farms, every 100 miles.
……….
Yeah …well maybe not casinos… but make sure the canal is big enough to let the cruise ship pass easily and give them stops where people can go to water parks theme parks and some disneyfied side trips down biblical history lane, and that’s how you would help fund ongoing operations…ie not just by transit fees.
I think the question is which currency block is going to get control of Egypt and the Egyptian central bank. I think this is really what all this Arab spring is about.
This CNBC video The Baghdad Job: Iraq’s Missing Billions really piqued my interest. $40B cash paper money (base money) pumped into Iraq on shorter notice than even the banks got their $10T. Why?
Because it is was the first volley in the currency wars. I could never understand why no US oil companies got contracts in Iraq. Part of it was payoff to the Chinese, Russians and Eurps for not making too much noise. But at the core, as long as Iraq accepts dollars for oil, the oil effectively belongs to the US. But even better, by injecting that seed of $ base money liquidity into Iraq the Fed and the elites hoped to kick start that economy to run on US dollars, thus expanding and maintaining dollar hegemony. It also happened to increase the base of money that the fed can inflate to fund US government and world CB funding.
If we look at Libya and Tunisia from this viewpoint, then it would appear that this was an attempt by the ECB and the Eurps to do likewise. Notice how European Nato members took the lead in the intervention and how the first thing the rebels did was establish the Libyan CB. I have no evidence, but I would bet that Libya/Tunisia are being reined into the Euro sphere of influence. Syria will fall into Euro land too as with the treaty of Versailles. This all harkens back to Balfour and the setting up of mandates in the middle east at the end of WWI.
Iran is going to fall into the dollar sphere. Notice how the Iranian Rial is entering hyperinflation. Once key infrastructure starts being destroyed the Rial will be destroyed too, and once the bombs stop falling you can watch for another $50B base money paper drop to Tehran. This will anchor Iranian oil into the US dollar sphere and also further cement Iraq in this sphere too. This is the why the MENA quid-pro-quo to the Eurps, but it leaves Russia, India and China SOL.
This is the great game and the US has little choice. If Iraq escapes the dollar sphere then the dollar is toast and this fiat money poker game that the elites have been playing for over a century will all come to a halt. That is why the bankers are forcing Barry to deal with Iran.
So where does Egypt fall? I think it is up for grabs between the Euro and dollar spheres of influence. But either way BIS, IMF, World Bank, ECB, Fed, and all the large banks will still be calling the shots.
63. Charles…
Please post the numbers in cubic feet, or cubic miles, of water that top 10 to 20 feet of the Missisip represents.
Then calculate the diameter of the plumbing system necessary to transport said water.
Also the power required to do so.
Newt’s Lunar Colony would be a piece of cake in comparison.
67. Doug
Newt’s Lunar Colony would be a piece of cake in comparison.
…….
imho to make this work you’d need electrical power to be much cheaper or 1/4 to 1/10th current power produced by coal plants. The answer here is portable thorium reactors. A fist full of thorium will produce enough power to keep a moon colony of 1000 going for 100 years. The USA has millions of tons of the stuff. There’s much more thorium on the moon and mars.
Create the technology to turn the deserts of the earth green–and much of the problem of colonizing the deserts of the moon and mars is solved. That is, the way to the deserts of the moon and mars is through the deserts of the earth.
Charles…
We’ve been over this before.
Thorium, no matter how abundant, is NOT fissile.
So ANY ramp up of thorium use demands an exponential ramp in U-235 based fission.
ALL American and Soviet attempts to make thorium work out died on the thorns of materials failure.
THERE ARE NO MATERIALS THAT CAN SURVIVE HOT FLUORINE. PERIOD.
That’s the problem.
For those new to this web-debate: during fission high energy particles are emitted. In particular the massive residual isotopes left by cleaving U-235. ( or U-238 or Pu-239, etc. ) These peppy items are referred to in the argot as ‘hot’ atoms. They are REALLY energetic. They’ve got enough kick to power thousands of ordinary chemical reactions/ transformations.
As they bump around, they cool down, by transmitting their high energy to nearby elements.
In ALL of Charles’ schemes these include a bath of fluorine. With atomic energies to hand, these puppies fly off as hot atoms, also. The reactive/ corrosive power of atomic Fluorine is beyond anything you can imagine. There is no substance in the periodic table that is immune to its power. None.
And thusly, thorium-salt reactors are a pipe dream. Of late, they’ve got quite a following — by the faithful.
It’s not for nothing that no thorium reactor ever entered power service.
But, it gets even better.
You see, thorium is only fertile. The item that really makes the mare run is U-233. This is breakout, weapons grade, nuclear explosive.
So any 1st world scientist that actually solves the thorium ‘cycle’ has unleashed Hell upon humanity. For with U-233 any nit wit can make the Bomb. Yes, that’s right, U-233 is MUCH better than U-235 as a nuclear explosive.
And with a molten brew it would seem entirely practical that any such promoted thorium be extracted as U-233 before it is poisoned into non-explosive isotopes.
We can only thank our lucky stars that thorium salts are a known dead-end.
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And we’re not going to replace fossil water, either.
That’d be more draining than the Wan or Governor Moonbeam.
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FAR more practical is a trans-Med fresh water pipeline from France to Algeria; and from the Po to Libya.
All you’d need would be a run-of-the-river dam and a massive plastic garden hose – say 60 meters in diameter — snaking its way on an isobar — on the down low — off to Cyrenaica.
It’d be a real water-for-oil swap.
Cheers.