One way to tell whether a regime has lost power is when its major symbols are overrun and no gatekeepers remain to stop it. Then the Berlin Wall is smashed down, Saddam’s statue is toppled, or Marcos’ palace is swarmed by crowds. In the case of Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, the singer is gone, but the song remains. The 82-year-old strongman is on the way out, but Egypt is still mostly under the control of the Army. This means that the story, far from having ended, is now moving into a second phase.
Time magazine reported the administration was preparing an aid package for opposition groups — but before Mubarak left.
First, with diminishing influence over Mubarak, they have to try to ensure the dictator fully relinquishes control. … The second challenge is harder. Washington has publicly called for a transition to democracy, which Egypt has never known. To avoid a continuation of dictatorial rule under a new strong man or a dangerous power vacuum as weaker players try to seize control, Egypt will need to see the lightning-fast development of long-suppressed political parties. So the US is preparing a new package of assistance to Egyptian opposition groups designed to help with constitutional reform, democratic development and election organizing, State department officials tell TIME. The package is still being formulated, and the officials declined to say how much it would be worth or to which groups it would be directed.
The “aid package” is something that should have been undertaken from the beginning of the crisis. The package now under consideration is now way behind the curve and looks to be like carrying coals to Newcastle. Time suggests what it might look like. “In countries like Serbia and Ukraine direct and indirect U.S. aid helped youth driven opposition movements successfully oust repressive leaders by training them in non-violent civil disobedience, election organizing and other fundamentals of civil society.” The aid package has to “lead” events — and events are moving at a pace far faster than the glacial formation of the aid package.
What appears to be happening, as noted above, is that the head of the system is changing, but the system itself remains largely intact. Egypt is now in the post-Mubarak period. But whether it is in the post-Army period or moving there remains to be seen. Recent events may have convinced the Army officer corps that Mubarak had to go, but it probably still believes the Army has to remain in charge. The role of opposition groups in this context will be to take sides with factions in the Army. The BBC hypothesizes that this will change the ideology of the Army, but not the fact that the Army rules:
It is still too soon to know for certain what made Mr Mubarak step down, but it seems a reasonable assumption that the army leadership could see the hairline cracks appearing among their own officer corps.
The generals were inclined to side with the president, one of their own, and the more junior officers sympathised with the demonstrators.
There was an historical echo to that.
In 1952 many of the senior officers here preferred the monarchy, while the younger ones, including a young colonel called Gamal Abdel Nasser, favoured a successful coup against the old system.
There have only been two presidents since Nasser: Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak, who took over when Sadat was murdered.
What has happened today is that the old Nasserite system, a vaguely socialist, military dictatorship, heavily dependent on an unpleasant secret police, has collapsed.
What the next days and weeks will show is what the factions look like. If the Army has split, even so slightly, then that fact should manifest itself in the appearance of a number of blocs. Which way the civilian opposition groups are drawn will serve as an indicator, in the way that dust is drawn to some giant unseen gravitational source, of what is going on beneath. Some opposition groups will tailor their programs to capture some of the “aid” money the Obama administration is putting together, but the fundamental character of these blocs may already be determined by prior events — where they fall within the new constellation.
What has happened today is that the old Nasserite system, a vaguely socialist, military dictatorship, heavily dependent on an unpleasant secret police, has collapsed
that is what is being protested, in the name of Mubarak, but it is far from clear that that is what has collapsed. maybe ironically it was the Army that was bemused and then offended by Mubarak claiming he was an Arab Warrior and not a community organizer, which in all due respect is probably closer to what he really was.
all I see at this point is a first step in a still dark direction. all we can hope for is more steps, and then more light, and finding it was a good direction after all.
Ataturk the model?
“major symbols are overrun and no gatekeepers remain to stop them…”
In a way the army itself is the major symbol of Egypt, sort a living pyramid. The army’s mythical “victory” in 1973 is a source of national pride. The US military aid gives top army officers access to US leadership and weapons. The army runs a large chunk of the economy. It provides stability, but now the army has become the only agent able effect change.
It seems to me that the while the army kept Mubarak in power, the army is something bigger than the man or the ‘regime’. I don’t think “regime change” as the Egyptians define it involves shutting the military out of the government entirely. It is not clear yet if that is Obama’s definition.
Whether or not the “regime change” the Egyptians end up getting includes ousting the army will determine the course of events in the near future, and especially relations with the US and Israel.
Breaking Switzerland has frozen Mubarak assets
Fox News | 2/11/11 | Fox News
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/11/news/international/swiss_banks_mubarak/
http://news.google.com/news/search?pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=Mubarak+Switzerland+assets+frozen
If its true that mubarak has 40 billion and that the army congtrols 30% of the economy of egypt–then the capacity for fubar mounts geometrically.
.
The restlessness of the young colonels in the military would translate into a restlessness for spoils that they would think they are being shut out of by higher ups.
.
Egypt is doomed unless it drastically reduces the number of state employees.
Currently 35% of employees in Egypt are employed by the state.
Foreign aid should not be poured into such an economic black hole.
In contrast in Turkey 13% of employees are employed by the state.
Turkey has a vibrant entrepreneurial economy and Egypt should follow its model and practices.
This should be a precondition for any foreign aid to Egypt–apart from emergency food aid to prevent famine–
It would be better if Mubarak’s money were used to subsidize Egyptian grain for a short period and pay for water drilling in the western desert to grow grain.
However, seizing his assets would also delegitimize all military coffers outside Egypt. The army is currently the only counterbalance to the MB. Systematically dismembering the military leaves only the MB. conventional wisdom has it that el baradi and the google exec have no power base in egypt so would while perhaps instrumental in dismembering the old elite they would have no part in the new regime. — unless they–or whoever else is using facebook & google in egypt– presented a new vision for egypt–which water and cheaper –or at least home grown–grain would fulfill. For without vision the people perish.
It would be nice if the saudis invested as well in egyptian water/agriculture rather than in the egyptian military.
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/09/saudi-arabia-considers-matching-u-s-military-aid-to-egypt/
5. Victor
Egypt is doomed unless it drastically reduces the number of state employees.
Currently 35% of employees in Egypt are employed by the state.
………
this tracks well with what I read somewhere that the military run 30% of the industry in egypt.
5. Victor
We agree on something. Are you feeling OK?
Before you know it, you’ll be putting a Palin sign up in your front yard.
1) Good post by Victor, I think.
2) The Dambusters episode was a marvelous milestone is weapons technology history. The Brits had to develop an underwater concussion bomb to bust the dams. They came up with a fat, spinning drum that skipped across the water after being released by the low-flying bomber. Each bomber had a spinning mechanism onboard for the huge bomb it carried, which must have threatened to wreak havoc on keeping the craft steady and flying.
Supposedly, these bombs were the first use of dimpling the metallic surface that was later used to reduce air (or any fluid) resistance on everything from golf balls to supersonic aircraft.
Remember, it’s only been a few hours since Mubarak stepped down, and there can be no comparison between a regime taken out by internal demands and one where an external military stepped in to take out the regime.
As others have pointed out, the military was the key agency for stability in the country – for Mubarak has prevented the emergence and functioning of any opposition parties for 30 years. That has resulted in, that has actually enabled, the rise of the non-secular, ‘religious’ organizations, such as the Muslim Brotherhood to emerge as ‘opposition’ to Mubarak.
Obviously, the army had no intention of allowing govt power to pass to such an organization, and frankly, the people on the street weren’t demanding it. They wanted ‘people-power’ – the right to develop opposition parties (that’s a plural noun) and the right to choose their government themselves. The focus has been, right from the start, on the need for economic and political reform.
I think that an economy that is so enfeebled as is the Egyptian economy, with the mass of its population living in poverty knows that it has to change. Tt has refused to enable a private economy and has instead, relied only on the revenues generated by the public institutions of the Suez canal tolls, tourism and some agriculture. This can’t sustain that size of population and the army has to know this. So, economic change will have to be a key part of the agenda – leading towards a private business economy and the rise of a middle class of small to medium size businesses.
It is fascinating to listen to the rhetoric of the ‘left and the right’ here in America. I’ll be open and declare that I am almost always a conservative, a Tea Party supporter, a small govt, limited..etc, etc. But this issue has thrown me out their door.
The right are breathless with: “The Muslims are coming, the Muslims are coming!!’…and fearing jihadist overthrow in the next days, darkly referring to ‘Look what happened in Iran’ (ignoring the differences)..and obviously subscribing to the view that “The only good Arab is a controlled and repressed Arab’. I can’t agree with this, may I say, bigoted and quite ungrounded view.
The left are more, I would say, unusually grounded in focusing on the realities of the on-the-ground demonstrators, listening to what they say, and acknowledging that the problems are a brutal dictatorship, repression of freedom, fake elections..after all, no opposition parties are allowed!, no habeas corpus, no free speech…and a disastrous, crippling economy caused by socialism.
BUT the left is still living in their own dreamworld…for they are starting to say that this revolutionary change in Egypt is due to…wait for it..His Majesty of the EmptyBrain Himself, Obama. Incredible. A two-bit community organizer, a pathological narcissist, whose only focus is on being seen as His Magical…and they are saying the had a thing, anything….to do with this change across the globe????
Watch – Obama will try to slither himself..sorry, that’s Himself, into the kudos and praise-for-freedom..and present himself..oops, Himself, as the patronizing Big Man…
More power to the Egyptian people who want economic and political change to enable their own freedom. That does NOT mean a theocratic dictatorship. Oh – and notice, Obama did nothing a year ago when the Iranian people demonstrated for freedom. Heh – he’s not interested in freedom. But, he didn’t think they’d win, so he aligned himself..Himself..with the Winning Side. That’s Basic Obama..
Forty percent of the men who went on the Dambusters Raid were killed that night. Almost a quarter of those on the raid were Canadian, of whom 50% were KIA. Nineteen Australians were in the crew that night. Two died. One of the aircraft that actually reached the target and released a bouncing bomb was commanded by an American, flying out of the RCAF, Joseph Charles “Joe” McCarthy DSO DFC and bar.
They got Richard Todd, himself a bona fide war hero, to play Guy Gibson in the movie. Historians are divided on the impact of the Dambusters Raid. Some say it damaged the Rurh’s factories; others that it set back German food production. Still others claimed it changed Stalin’s thinking. But it’s greatest effect in retrospect was the creation of a legend. Legends are true, but apart from their immediate factual basis, they are lastingly true because posterity in remembering them makes them so.
ALL HAIL THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC ON THE NILE
On the 32nd anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, one of the most deadly and terrifying in history, Hosni Mubarak went the way of Iran’s tragic Shah as Egypt begins it’s transformation into the Islamic Republic on the Nile. The only walls crumbling are those that divide Mosque and State as a new and more horrible tyranny takes shape arising from a people who hate America, the West and Israel’s Jews and want Sharia law to guide their fate. The Gazaization of Egypt is now underway as the Brotherhood of Evil works its way into power joining with Hamas, Hezbollah and fascist Iran in an alliance of unholy terror.
Obambus is now giving us his *impressions* of current events.
young people … moral force … non-violence …
What does he think he’s doing?
“something in the soul that cries out for freedom” …
Who does he think he is, Andy Rooney?
Divers find second of two vessels commanded by Captain Georg Pollard 600 miles off Hawaii. (Pollard’s first vessal sunk by a whale inspired Melville’s Moby Dick)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2672281/posts
#13 josh – right. Obama, remember, sides always with Power. The force that is in power, will see him jogging along right beside.
He totally ignored the Iranians demonstrating for freedom – so much for his current rhetoric about a ‘basic desire for freedom in all of us..heh, then why did he ignore them? Was it because he didn’t think they’d win?
During the early weeks of this Egyptian revolution, Obama sided with Mubarak! Then, when it became clear that the Egyptian demonstrators weren’t going to give up…and that the army wasn’t going to side with Mubarak…Obama switched sides. Typical Obama – his focus is always, always, on Himself.
#12. Apollo – hey, aren’t you a perfect example of what I was referring to in my post #10 – of the mindless chicken little run of ‘The Muslims are coming, the Muslims are coming!!’.
I can not believe the hubris of Americans who think that they are the cause, or even have any control or substantial influence over events in Cairo.
I don’t have the apparent hatred so many of you do for Obama but I do have to say, if you were a 30 year president how much influence do you think a two year president’s advice would have?
Somewhat surprised too that Mubarak did not employ troops the very first day and put down the revolt before it got going. Yes, he would have been condemned by the world, for about a week, yes, money would have been cut off for about a couple of months, so what? He would still have been in power. I’d be very interested indeed to learn what had changed within Egypt that things did not go that way.
And what are the dynamics in Egypt? We tend to view the different factions as being entirely separate and divisible, but this is not the case. Rather than being wholly a category of one faction or another each individual who plays a part is more like a Venn diagram. People in the military may be members or have sympathies with the MB, and so on and so on. They are human beings, not mere variables in an equation that is susceptible to being reduced to one single, simple solution.
Things can change, and they can change rapidly. The human capacity for treachery is near infinite. And the human capacity to rationalize one’s own treachery is infinite.
Remember the refrain from the song in 1984?
Under the spreading chestnut tree
I sold you and you sold me
There lie they, and here lie we
Under the spreading chestnut tree
We need a plan B.
I know I speak into the wind but here goes anyway…
With all sides echoing each other in their lack of ability to know what comes next, it seems like a good time to take stock of what we can infer about the future.
Role of Western aid to Muslim societies.
Hasn’t worked out so well. Muslims, with the help of huge food, medical, and dollar aid packages (combined with the trillions in unearned wealth from oil), are breeding like bunnies. Virtually all of the most seething Muslims hellholes on earth are also exploding their populations and exporting massively to the West… So trillions in unearned wealth along with trillions in Western monetary, medical, and food aid has produced a dramatic and ominous uptick in radical Muslims — there are not only vastly more Muslims alive today than ever before, but there are vastly more radical Muslims alive today than have ever existed before. Is it possible that Western dollars, Western aid, and Western food flowing into Muslim hands have simply produced a catastrophic radical result?
Grade for Western dollars, medicine, and aid to the Muslim world: Epic fail.
Role of Muslim immigration into the West and exposure to Western wealth, education, opportunity.
Rare Muslims integrate and become productive members of society in the West. Far more become a drain on the system and refuse to integrate, establishing enclaves brimming with malcontent young. They are ripe for Jihad. They hate the civilization their religion teaches is inferior to Islam. They do not seek the answer to their dilemma by scrutinizing and evaluating the role of Islam in their misery, but turn their ire and their arrogance against the West which nurtures them. It is a now well-established pattern that second and third generation Muslims living in the West will be increasingly more radical over their parents and grandparents. We are now finally admitting that so-called “homegrown terrorism” is a growing menace. It seems logical to conclude that as more Muslims flood into the West fleeing their hideous failed societies, that there will be exponentially more radical Muslims waging Jihad on our own soil.
Grade for exposing Muslims to Western wealth, education, opportunity: Epic Fail.
Projecting “democracy projects” into the Muslim world.
A brief run-down tells the tale:
Democracy in Algeria installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Democracy in Turkey installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Democracy in Lebanon installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Democracy in Gaza installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Democracy in Iraq installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Democracy in Afghanistan installs radical Jihadists into the government.
Grade for attempting to graft democracy onto the monster of Islam: Epic Fail.
Yet everybody from Obama to GWB, from Rachel Maddow and Juan Cole to Wretchard are chomping to throw more aid, more democracy, and more of just about everything that has failed epically in the last three decades at the Muslims expecting something good to come of it…
There’s a name for that. It’s called insane.
We’d best begin talking about Plan B.
It’s been sort of amazing that all of this has been taking place in Egypt for nearly a month but nobody really seems to know whats going on. Nobody has satisfactorally answered the basic question of whether the agitation is only against Mubarak personally or against the whole weird Nasserite military/autocracy that has been in place since the late 1950′s.
I still say that whatever takes the place of Mubarak will only be a short-lived transitional government to something controlled or heavily influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Right now as I write this, I have just come back from Tahrir Square where I was when a thunderous shout went up when it was announced Mubarak had stepped down followed by rapturous joy that has not abated one whit. They are honking car horns and waving flags like mad on every street.
However, if the emergency laws that have been in place for almost 3 decades are not ended immediately, those protesters are not going anywhere and the army can’t fight them or beat them without unimaginable bloodshed in the streets. Tomorrow will be another big day.
For right now though I don’t know when I’ve shook so many hands or seen so many people so happy. They were so happy to have foreign photographers to get their story out and stick it out and were very welcoming the whole time, taking time out to come up and just say, “Thank you, thank you for being here”.
The photographers were all that was left and those few enough after the brutal assaults, robberies and detentions of journalists and indeed any foreigner of Feb.2-4 when I couldn’t even stand outside my hotel at night as my neighborhood had been temporarily overrun by the pro-Mubarak thugs, secret police and army.
Once in Tahrir Square you were alright but getting there was another thing. I can’t imagine what it must be like to have lived for almost 3 decades and more either experiencing that kind of fear or learning to shut up and take it.
The courage and resolve these people have displayed is almost unimaginable. In my opinion, Americans no longer have either trait in great enough quantities to make a difference.
We let ourselves be pushed around by illegal immigrants, the TSA, I can’t take a photo of a cop in the U.S., hang clothes on a clothes line in my own back yard in some places, smoke a cigarette in my own car (know a guy who got a ticket for that in SF), we stand for our money in its billions being spent on foreign escapades, lobbying and corporate/congressional corruption enacted in front of our very eyes, the DOJ taken over by the NAACP, tax payer funded sex changes and so much more I couldn’t even make a list extemporaneously.
It’s about time we took to the streets and demanded changes starting with no more corporate funding of campaigns or corporate lobbying in Washington.
….and Obama has just given his most fatuous speech yet, equating the transition from a military dictator to a military junta to the fall of the Berlin Wall, and Ghandi’s Indian independence movement.
While, of course, taking credit for it.
ETAN – Appreciate your desire to find a home tween the right’s anti-Arabism…And the left’s ahistoricism. Still – while the revo will stand as the Egpytian democrats’ achievement (whatever goes down from now on), history may very well turn out to be a rough god who rode W. AND Obama (and Julian Assange) into the future. The signficance of W.’s freedom agenda can’t be denied.Especially since he did more than talk. Nor does it make sense to diminish the force of O’s example (which was amped up by his Cairo speech). Did you see the placard in Tahrir Square – “Yes We Can Too!”
Peter Boston
…continuing a thought…
The MB may settle in for a looong war of attrition with Israel via propaganda and the careful nurturing of regional alliances before striking. But strike it will; nothing in this “revolution” has led me to believe the leopard has changed its spots. That said, Eban’s Law of Palestinian Gravitas may be equally applicable to the Egyptians (and Mighty Mouth, for that matter): They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
If the Egyptian military is fractured along religious and/or political lines, there may not be a better time for Israel to strike upon the first provocation, no matter what. My fear is that action by Israel might bring in the United States as an openly belligerent, anti-Israeli player. Because Mr. Obama does not seem capable of understanding his limits, the threat is real.
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”
___Einstein
While rarely acknowledged, defeat has been very good to the Egyptian military. There is no reason to believe that will change.
To all of good will, Shabbat Shalom.
The reason they have not announced the details of the aid package is we are waiting for the loan papers to be approved by China.
“He (Obama) must embrace democratic change in the Arab world…”
Still waiting for him to embrace democracy in the US.
10. ETAB
“non-secular, ‘religious’ organisations…”
Huh? Even with the sarcastic quotation marks it is contradictory. No, I’m not one of the “Muslims are coming” variety but the MB was responsible for killing Sadat so there is a reasonable case for concern if they take the reins.
Victor Egypt is doomed unless it drastically reduces the number of state employees. Currently 35% of employees in Egypt are employed by the state.
Perhaps a little history is in order here, when 100% of the employees in Egypt were employed by the State:
GENESIS 47
[20] And Joseph bought all the land of Egypt for Pharaoh; for the Egyptians sold every man his field, because the famine prevailed over them: so the land became Pharaoh’s.
[21] And as for the people, he removed them to cities from one end of the borders of Egypt even to the other end thereof.
[22] Only the land of the priests bought he not; for the priests had a portion assigned them of Pharaoh, and did eat their portion which Pharaoh gave them: wherefore they sold not their lands.
[23] Then Joseph said unto the people, Behold, I have bought you this day and your land for Pharaoh: lo, here is seed for you, and ye shall sow the land.
[24] And it shall come to pass in the increase, that ye shall give the fifth part unto Pharaoh, and four parts shall be your own, for seed of the field, and for your food, and for them of your households, and for food for your little ones.
[25] And they said, Thou hast saved our lives: let us find grace in the sight of my lord, and we will be Pharaoh’s servants.
Under pricing food to the third world has generated ‘edge of the Petrie dish’ dynamics.
Throughout the ummah there is absolutely zero desire to limit births.
Their maternity wards are considered ordnance factories — by them !
This Gordian Knot is going to be unraveled by the four horsemen.
Fat chance that our dis-organizer in chief interrupts his perpetual campaign to effect positive outcomes.
BTW, when does retiring to summer quarters equate to fleeing the country?
You do know that MOST of Mubarak’s time has been spent in the Sinai. It’s all set up to run the country for years on end. Mubarak only travels to Cairo when it is necessary. Cairo stinks, that’s why.
—–
All of this talk about Mubarak stashing away tens of billions overseas is absurd. The bulk of his assets are locked up in Egypt — it can’t be any other way.
Folks, when a despot attains wealth the bulk of it comes in the form of equity in national assets: direct or indirect.
Marcos is a perfect case in point. ( Mr. 15% ) He held a hidden skim royalty with the national telephone company. When he left — he lost all of it. As long as could sit on the throne the phone company shunted huge dollars to him.
At which point Marcos spent large on himself and his crew. The nominal wages earned by his palace guards were a joke — IF they were drawing from the national treasury. Instead, Marcos used his ‘royalties’ ( nice double entendre, eh ? ) to top-up wages all over for his crew and clan.
This is why having stolen so much Marcos had such a ‘small’ war chest overseas.
The only despots I know that can beat this equation are those with fantastic hard money exports: oil, diamonds and the like.
Nations that run terrible export deficits don’t permit the man on top from shunting huge funds overseas any more than drilling holes in your boat gets the water out. To do so creates a crisis destined to upset the whole operation — and very quickly, too.
—
I’m with Morton on ‘democracy’ under the ummah. It will always default to theocracy.
Karzai is already rolling over to the Taliban/ISI/Iran/drug lords. The Resident has completely demoralized him.
He really is stashing as much get-away-money as he can in Dubai.
( BTW, this Swiss stunt assures everyone that Dubai is the bank of choice for the despots of the future. )
Obama better be careful. Identifying yourself with something that you have no control over, much less any understanding of, can be fatal. We all wish the Egyptians the best. But what if Morton and ApolloSpeaks turn out to be right and, say, 6 months from now we have a radical Islamist state in Egypt? How will Obama explain that catastrophe? Blame it on Bush?
I have mused sometimes that Joseph was the first communist.
James,
Everyone fights a revolution from inside his own skin. The biggest effect of this experience is that many people will have realized for the first time that they, as individuals matter. I know the feeling of Tahrir Square. And there is this too. Once people experience being free even fleetingly, then even the MB must realize that it is a change they must reckon with forever.
One hopes the president knows what the shape of coming events in Egypt are likely to assume before announcing his satisfaction or dissatisfaction with them in public over the next few days.
Too late, Obama won’t miss a chance to show his foot in mouth desease on international stage.
Forget about Obama’s reaction to the fact afterwards, has anybody here and abroad (besides his usual toadies) rejoiced at his way of handling international affairs?
ETAB@10: I agree with your point about “the Jihad is coming and the sky is falling” reaction. With or without Jihad though, Egyptians are bound to be poor and unhappy because (as you have also said) their current economic engines can’t carry the load.
The temptation will be to copy Cleveland and go for publicly funded mega projects that don’t improve the economy. One handicap I think Egyptians have is a belief that the amount of wealth in the world is finite. People who believe this (Obama, Unions, leftists generally) think that redistribution of wealth is the only way to alleviate poverty. Until they understand that wealth can be created and that all the beavering over all the millenia across all the world up to WWII produced only one sixth (IIRC) of the wealth that was created in the 50 years after WWII; they are hooped.
Re Wretchard @11
One of the aircraft that actually reached the target and released a bouncing bomb was commanded by an American, flying out of the RCAF, Joseph Charles “Joe” McCarthy DSO DFC and bar.
To prevent any confusion, the Joe McCarthy referred to in this sentence was not the (in)famous Senator who later presided over the House Unamerican Activities Committee in the 50s; that Joe McCarthy was Joseph Raymond
McCarthy and he served as a Marine in the Pacific Theatre; he also flew 12 missions as a gunner-observer but gunner-observers do not normally command bombers. Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_McCarthy#Military_service
#31 western canadian – yes, very nice point about how socialists, the left etc (and of course Obama) indeed think that wealth is finite.
They don’t understand, as you point out, that wealth is simply a definition of resources or goods and services. Wealth consists of ‘what we value’, the goods and services that are used/consumed…and that, as a population increases, more goods and services (and more wealth) are produced and used.
The left usually doesn’t understand, as well, that in order to produce goods and services of value – we have to invest in the structures of production. This means, we have to invest in factories, roads, communication systems..and workers. And educate the workers to have the skills to make those goods and services.
The left/unions focus only on the Wage Results of Production –the wages and benefits of the workers – and totally ignore the costs of production, those factories, roads, trucks, trains etc..If you redistribute all your profits to the wages and benefits of the workers – you starve the infrastructure that produces wealth…That’s what has happened in the socialist countries.
ETAB.
I don’t get it. If the jihadis aren’t coming, what’s been going on?
I am more concerned with lawfare, religious defamation law by way of the UN, for example. And ethnic enclaves with juror null protecting those assaulting non-Muslims, and protected by PC and hate-speech laws as in Scandinavia and Western Europe.
After Mubarak?
La deluge, of course. Not for Barry Soetoro, though. For him, it’s another “fundamental transformation” taking place.
Has the White House been renamed the Green House yet?
There are now only two possible positive outcomes in the short term.
1. The Eqyptian army takes and keeps control. The world should pray for this option.
2. The army takes control for a year or more until viable non-radical political parties can be formed, with the hope that they can stave off what will surely be a rabid push for radical muslims to firmly take control of the second largest Islamic country in the Middle East. If the Obama cabal had any real interest in Egypt a variation of this option would have been discussed with Mubarak from the beginning.
But longer term, what happens in Egypt is irrelevent. Islam cannot survive more than a few more decades.
The infinitely greater danger to the world is Barack Obama. Ironically, if he succeeds, Islam’s lifespan will be even less than if he is defeated. Not because of him specifically, since he obviously has a soft spot in his heart for terrorism and radical muslim terrorism in particular, but because he won’t life forever. And the Marxist masters who succeed him will annihilate Islam in much faster order than would the Western democracies.
The Muslim Brotherhood is dangerous by itself, of course, but in context, the danger they pose is nothing compared to the new western/marxist aristocracy/commissars salivating to get their hands on 100% of the wealth of the west.
Wait- an old general ruling Egypt was replaced with a new general.
The Dambusters
The Pilots:
Plt. Off. Taerum RCAF – Canada
Plt. Off. Spafford RAAF – Australia
FS Deering RAF – Ireland
Flt. Off. Earnshaw RCAF – Canada
Plt. Off. Fraser RCAF – Canada
Flg. Off. Burcher RAAF – Australia
Flt. Lt. Martin RAF – Australia
Flt. Lt. Leggo RAAF – Australia
Fg. Off. Chamber RNZAF – New Zealand
Flt. Lt. Hay RAAF – Australia
Plt. Off. Foxlee – Australia
FS Simpson RAAF – Australia
Sqn. Ldr. Young RAF – USA
Fg. Off. MacCausland RCAF – Canada
Fg. Off. Wile RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Garshowits RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Garbas RCAF – Canada
Fg. Off. Urquhart RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Cottam RCAF – Canada
Flt. Lft. Knight RAAF – Australia
Sgt. Kellow RAAF – Australia
Sgt. Sutherland RCAF – Canada
Sgt. O’Brian RCAF – Canada
Flt. Lft. Shannon RAAF – Australia
Fg. Off. Walker RCAF – Canada
Flt. Lt. McCarthy RCAF – USA
Sgt. Radcliffe RAF – Canada
FS. McLean RCAF – Canada
Flg. Off. Rodger RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Byers RCAF – Canada
Sgt. McDowell RCAF – Canada
Flt. Lt. Barlow RAAF – Australia
Flg. Off. Williams RAAF – Australia
Flg. Off. Glinz RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Gowrie RCAF – Canada
FS Thrasher RCAF – Canada
Flt. Lt. Munro RNZAF – New Zealand
Sgt. Pigeon RCAF – Canada
FS Weeks RCAF – Canada
Plt. Off. Howard RAAF – Australia
FS Brown RCAF – Canada
Sgt Oancia RCAF – Canada
Plt. Off. Burpee RCAF – Canada
Sgt. Arthur RCAF – Canada
FS Brady RCAF – Canada
Three other Canadian airmen were trained but did not go on the raid because of illness.
Taken from “The Men Who Breached the Dams” by Alan Cooper.
It’s possible Flt. Lt. McCarthy took this clip to heart.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZywerGiEZqo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JqBiMgC2Wg
practice runs of bouncing dam busters, documentary footage
Wretchard said:
“In 1952 many of the senior officers here preferred the monarchy, while the younger ones, including a young colonel called Gamal Abdel Nasser, favoured a successful coup against the old system.”
In previous comments, I expressed the belief that Egypt’s population had expanded beyond the capacity of it’s intrinsic economy. Even if one could snap his fingers and make the Aswan Dam and it’s reservoir go “poof”, Egypt could not go back to the traditional farming methods that fed the Egyptian people for thousands of years. There are too many Egyptians and those old farming methods are too inefficient to feed them. Egypt is in serious trouble mainly due to demographics and there appears to be no solution.
Given this pessimistic outlook, where was the branch point in Egypt’s history where this disaster could have been averted. I don’t see how Mubarak could have changed anything. Egypt was already over-populated before Mubarak assumed office. Anwar Sadat could not have changed anything. He was completely focused on (unsuccessfully) keeping the Moslem Brotherhood from murdering him. Nasser might have changed things but he was too busy playing games with the Communists, Islamists and the Israelis. Funny thing is that the branch point in Egypt’s history probably occurred when the country was still under British control, i.e. the “old system”.
Well, that was a quote from the BBC source. It seems true, though I’m no expert.
Wretchard,
Pardon me, you’re correct that was a quote from the BBC. Also, I agree the quote seems to be true.
TO: Fernandez
RE: Well….
….[They might] gradually weaken the Army without provoking a direct confrontation until the Army is too weak to win. — Fernandez
….they might do that.
Or, they might emulate what happened in Iran on 11 Feb 1979, overwhelm the army by direct ‘assault’ in the streets. Iran had a very strong military….on paper….but not in terms of ‘morale’. I suspect that may be true of the Egyptian Army as well.
It’s an example of cutting off the head of the ‘snake’.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[History repeats itself. That's one of the problems with History.]
When all the future results look bad, it is time to try something that will change the future, even if you don’t know all the ramifications.
I suggest that Egypt should cut a canal (build the hydropower for electricity) from the Mediterranean to the Qattara Depression. Known results: 1) electricity for industry 2) changes in the water in the air over the desert – possible rainfall 3) water into the groundtable under the desert – yes its salt water coming in, but the ground tends to filter the salt, at least to some degree. 4) possibility of evaporation pans to create chemicals for industry.
Would this solve all Egypt’s – almost certainly not; but it would provide a sense of “doing something” and provide a possible improvement in the national economy. Again when all the futures are bad, do something to change them – if things don’t improve, you’re no worse off.
The military controls the Egyptian government, The U.S. sends the Egyptian military over 1 billion dollars a year in aid.
If Obama plays his cards right he could use that aid to manipulate the military in regards to putting another system of government in place.
Tolonaro @ 45 said:
“I suggest that Egypt should cut a canal (build the hydropower for electricity) from the Mediterranean to the Qattara Depression.”
Who is going to pay for it? The Egyptians don’t have the money and we certainly don’t.
Also there’s a climate issue. One of the reasons why I’m sceptical about global warming is because the earlier computer climate models always indicated that the Sahara Desert should be a rain forest. It’s my understanding that the models have since been tweeked such the Sahara remains a desert (they probably fiddled around with the computational mesh). I suspect there is a conservation principle at work concerning climate, i.e. if I turn Australia into a lush rain forest then the changed weather patterns would cause the Amazon basin to transform into a desert. Consequently the concern is that a large inland sea in the Sahara might adversely change the world’s climate. Of course if we had climate models that we actually believed in (and had the money) then we could proceed with confidence with regard to a Qattara Depression project.
Ich Bin Ein O’bamnik.
…-
“Protesters Defeat Mubarak
The West Loses Its Favorite Tyrant
Protesters Defeat Mubarak: The West Loses Its Favorite Tyrant
In the end, the refusal of pro-democracy protesters to back down sealed his fate. The people on the streets of Egypt insisted that Mubarak leave. But the West stood by the leader almost to the end, despite the fact that the despot had turned his country into a police state and plundered its economy. By Florian Gathmann, Ulrike Putz and Severin Weiland more…
http://www.spiegel.de/international/
…-
“Hamas hails Mubarak’s resignation Xinhua”
#47 Eggplant I agree the consequences are not calculable, at least in present knowledge; but from the point of Egypt, the effect on the Amazon is not of great importance. Actually, I don’t see that level of effect, but who knows.
As far as cost is concerned, Egypt can indeed put money there – if they want. doing things in a labor intensive method (shovels?) simply puts their subsidy for people to get something back. In any case, the point is that nothing else is calculable as solving their problems, so try something that seems to change the future. The changes are unlikely to be worse than what is foreseeable now.
Tolonaro @ 49,
I can’t argue with you. The Egyptian leaders need to do something. Busy work jobs like digging holes in the Sahara Desert might be an answer. Many historian believe the economic justification for the Pyramids was to keep idle farmers busy during the Nile flood season. Maybe after the Moslem Brotherhood takes over, they’ll keep Egypt’s population distracted by dismantling the great Pyramid and using the stone to build the world’s biggest mosque. Wouldn’t that be peachy creamy!
One stumbling block for the Qattara canal is that’s an awful lot of earth to move — think Panama Canal.
Next, the concept is that hydro-power could be extracted. But there is no experience anywhere with salt-water driven turbines. The only metals that might stand up to it are brutally difficult to machine.
Putting them together means that it is hopelessly uneconomic.
47. Eggplant
Tolonaro @ 45 said:
“I suggest that Egypt should cut a canal (build the hydropower for electricity) from the Mediterranean to the Qattara Depression.”
Who is going to pay for it? The Egyptians don’t have the money and we certainly don’t.
Also there’s a climate issue. One of the reasons why I’m sceptical about global warming is because the earlier computer climate models always indicated that the Sahara Desert should be a rain forest.
…………
The Sahara was a Savannah up until about 5500 years ago(there are some who think the change was abrupt and some who think it happened more gradually). Archeologists find the bones of Elephants, zebras, water buffalo, hippos crocodiles, Nile perch all over the Sahara desert. There were enormous lakes as well scattered all over the Sahara. They were larger than the great lakes. They have left an ancient aquifer that’s just enormous. The Libyans tap into the aquifer to grow grain. Their fields can be seen from space. For hundreds of miles around the great oasis in the western desert of Egypt there are just enormous aquifers for which the oasis show just the tip top giant underground lakes.
The Egyptians so far have used the water from these aquifers to feed housing developments near the coast. But not much else. They have had some plans but the plans got lost in the bureaucracy.
http://ancientlosttreasures.yuku.com/topic/3387/Ancient-lakes-of-the-Sahara
http://www.innovations-report.com/html/reports/earth_sciences/report-54055.html
http://www.egyptsearch.com/forums/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=007017
http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/3713/how-earth%E2%80%99s-orbital-shift-shaped-the-sahara
There is one project that would make sense:
A Negev Canal.
America would buy a 99-year leasehold on the land from the ‘Med to the Red’ Sea. The funds would cash out Gaza and send them to Aqaba or some such.
(It’s too crowded in Gaza anyway.)
Next the Corps of Engineers begins to cut an oceanic canal wider and deeper than Suez right through the Negev/Sinai. For its lease payments, Egypt gets XXXX tons of Winter Wheat and YYYY tons of Corn, or some such. Israel gets ZZZZ tons of crude oil, or some such. ( Thusly, inflation is removed from the rent. )
The spoil is tossed into the Med to create ‘Reagan Island’ — an unsinkable airbase right where it’s needed most. Off hand, perhaps five to ten miles on a side. The island is a permanent American territory — even after the canal reversion.
The Suez Canal goes to one-way traffic ( Southern, mostly ) and the Negev Canal takes the balance ( Northern, mostly ) It’s just as well, the Suez can’t keep up with demand, anyway.
By interposing America both Egypt and Israel have solved their strategic worry — each other.
We also make it practically impossible for the ummah to attack Israel alone. For someone like the mullahs the conflation of Israel and America is already made. So, it’s no big deal.
Since it takes three to five carrier strike forces to replicate a major USAF base and associated US Army Division we get our savings by means of our steaming budget. In fact, the Sixth Fleet can scale back to casual Task Force deployments. Gibralter (UK) and Reagan Island (USA) and Naples (Italy) and Cyprus (UK) would permit NATO a Mediterranean transit into the Indian Ocean unvexed by koranic tantrum.
Since the Suez is too small — another canal makes all the sense in the world. FAR cheaper than another war !
The BBC reports that “Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi has been put under house arrest.” His arrest was reported on his official website. “Mr Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, another opposition leader, had called for a rally on Monday to support the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.”
A genuine Democracy agenda would not differentiate between Mubarak and Castro, or Mubarak and Ahmadinejad. Or should it? My guess is that there is an instinctive resistance in the Left to even seriously consider Castro or Ahmadinejad as ‘authoritarians’. But logically there is no reason why it shouldn’t support dissidents who try to oppose Iran.
As I’ve previously posted…
Both Pakistan and Iran are on the bubble.
Iran is a massive food importer, too. It’s a race between oil and food prices. So far the soft commodities are sprinting.
Beyond that, Iran is over-calculated as an oil exporter. She’s sending crude to India only to import it back as motor fuels — and in grand style.
This affects her pocket book. She’s no where as well off as a snap calculation would indicate.
Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world’s largest fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara Desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa.[1]
NSAS covers a land area spanning just over two million km2, including north-western Sudan, north-eastern Chad, south-eastern Libya, and most of Egypt. Containing an estimated 150,000 km3 of groundwater,[2] the significance of the NSAS as a potential water resource for future development programs in these countries is extraordinary. Recently the Great Man-made River Project (GMMR) in Libya began extracting substantial amounts of water from this aquifer, removing an estimated 2.37 km3 per year. This system is primarily used to supply water in the Al Khufrah Oasis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nubian_Sandstone_Aquifer_System
Charles…
I would not be surprised to find that this mega-aquifer was fed by the mega swamp in Sudan. It’s head would provide a relentless push sending fresh water ever northward — across the centuries.
Not that anyone will listen, but … I appreciate the comments on something that could be done. Sounds like things that USA could support, things that would make an actual difference in Egypt. thanks you all.
#2 Jay, beltway
You are, of course, right. The Egyptian armed forces is about the only secular institution in Egypt that can hold it together. That does not mean that is it an honest [by any standards] institution, or one that is positive for Egypt’s future development. But you have to deal with what you have; not a fictional world where the right gesture yields a land of milk, honey, and unicorns defecating skittles. As has been discussed here, Democracy has certain prerequisites before it is a possibly workable form of government. One way or another, you have to be above the first two levels of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. If the mass of the society is not there, no amount of magical thinking combined with show elections is going to generate anything but a bread and circuses result. There also has, as has been noted elsewhere, to be a certain level of intellectual development. The electorate has to have internalized such concepts as cause and effect and analytical thinking. Third, you need to have developed from what John Ringo calls a Familial [or perhaps Tribal] trust society, to a General Trust society. You cannot have the rule of law necessary for the functioning of a Constitutional Democracy unless there is the ability to have a certain minimal level of trust outside the family, clan, or tribe.
There probably are other conditions, but those three are vital. None of them obtain in Egypt, and the Egyptian armed forces are not capable of making them obtain. It is key to understanding the situation, to realize that “Cultural Diversity” does not mean assuming that all cultures are both equivalent and functionally identical. It means understanding that they are different, and taking those very real differences into account.
“The old Nasserite system, a vaguely socialist, military dictatorship” is what we are dealing with. They have a subsidized food distribution system centered on the government. This has two problems. The food production is woefully incapable of meeting demand, and there are no market forces to increase production; requiring the government to keep on subsidizing. If the subsidies are cut, the cost of food to the people goes up, and there are riots and starvation. And it makes the locals tend to off the ruling class.
Nothing the army can do in the short to medium term will change that. And they have no incentive to. In a system with the workforce and the military so tied to the government, any changes threaten too many people. In a tribal trust society, the graft makes everyone defend the system from changes so as protect their iron rice bowl, and expand it. Add to this the detail that the recent and coming unpleasantness is going to make any foreign business with half a functioning synapse reduce their exposure and make Egyptian bonds even more hinky than Greek bonds.
Population pressures, and the economic chaos caused worldwide inflation and a shortage of food grains [we are really the only country with significant surplus grain production today, and we are using 1/3 of our grain for the ethanol boondoggle] means that no matter if things settle down under the Supreme Military Council, eventually the organic matter is going to impact the rotating airfoil. There is not going to be a Constitutional Convention at that point. At one or another interation, the Muslim Brotherhood or a like group is going to end up in charge. This is not going to end well.
#24 SpeakEasy
A palpable hit. No matter how this comes out, Obama cannot be a beacon for democracy or liberty; because it would be a contrast to his entire history at home. Similarly, any recommendations to reduce the share of state employment in Egypt will not come from Obama. He has been trying to increase the dependency of the people on the State here.
This aid package being worked up will come with strings, some real interesting strings. You can be sure that a share of the aid will go to the MB, in the name of political diversity. And that the tactics used by whatever government is in power against terrorist acts by the MB will be limited as a condition of the aid. After all, we now have no doubt whose side the regime is on.
Subotai Bahadur
Qattara Depression
and not a new idea neither –
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qattara_Depression#CIA
So the US is preparing a new package of assistance to Egyptian opposition groups designed to help with constitutional reform, democratic development and election organizing, State department officials tell TIME. The package is still being formulated, and the officials declined to say how much it would be worth or to which groups it would be directed.
Let us remember how Obama entered the political world. His ‘community organizing’ career, combined with his Board positions on the Joyce Foundation and the Annenberg Challenge, consisted partly of shoveling other people’s money to leftist activist groups including ACORN, and amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Continue with the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the ‘stimulus’. Significant fractions of its trillion dollars were also shoveled out to Obama allies, some lefter than others.
So to whom will the Egypt package be shoveled? Like ACORN, the Muslim Brotherhood is double-breasted, part of it quite capable of organized violence, part staffed with reassuring ‘moderates’ who wouldn’t hurt a fly and know all the resounding phrases the MSM loves to hear.
So let us hear from smarter guys than I, upon who ELSE beside the MB will Obama and Hillary lavish those ‘packages’?
Excerpts from Spengler…..http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB10Ak02.html
Egypt had its Clavell moment on February 8 when the Food and Agricultural Organization warned that drought in China might require the world’s largest wheat producer to import vast amounts of the grain, forcing the market price to levels never seen before.
Not until June will we know the extent of the damage to China’s winter wheat crop, virtually all its production. Extremely low rainfall this winter parched more than 5 million hectares of 14 million hectares planted, and the next few weeks’ weather will determine if the world faces a real shortage of the staff of life.
Egypt has no oil, insignificant industry, small amounts of natural gas, and 40 million people who are about to become very, very hungry. Without figuring out how to feed the destitute bottom half of the Egyptian population, all the talk of “models” is window-shopping.
If Obama succeeds in forcing the Muslim Brotherhood into a new Egyptian regime, Mubarak’s cronies really would be better off in London exile. That implies a tsunami of capital flight and the disappearance of Egypt’s managerial class who, feckless as they might be, nonetheless keep the economy working day by day. As I noted last week, Egypt’s $12 billion a year in tourist revenue has gone to zero and would take years to restore under the best of circumstances. At this point, Egyptians will begin to starve.
How long Egypt can finance its external deficit, or its internal deficit, without recourse to the printing press, depends less on internal events than on the weather in China.
The New York Times on February 8 quotes Mohamed ElBaradei, the figurehead opposition leader, complaining that the Arab world is “a collection of failed states who add nothing to humanity or science” because “people were taught not to think or to act, and were consistently given an inferior education. That will change with democracy.”
It’s too late. A country that still practices female genital mutilation cannot undertake a grand leap into modernity (by way of comparison, China began to abolish foot-binding in 1911 and eradicated it entirely shortly after 1949).
In this case, Oswald Spengler’s motto applies: Optimism is cowardice. Memo to the temporary residents of Tahrir Square: pray for rain in China.
t/58; something else, too: a Free Trade Agreement for Egypt. Be hard right now, but after the Union president is gone in 2012, why not?
I looked but didn’t see the below equation mentioned by anybody.
………………………… 80:20 …………………..
There are two viable [organized] components inside Egypt right now. The Supreme Military Council and the Muslim Brotherhood. Regardless of the demographics of the civil uprising component, the two organized factions will be representing a general population of 80% Muslim and 20% Copts, et al.
Add to the equation the external regional influences and it’s activity in the current realm of time.
So, as the author so aptly indicated, the fiddler is still playing, the folks still dancing and the lights of the party still on. That will end in the coming days or weeks and the workings of sausage making begins.
I’ll submit that NOBODY can predict the [ultimate] consequences of this ‘party’ short of 12 years out…or more. There are simply to many ‘HOT’ variables in action within the entire Islamic region…..and a 80:20 population involved in Egypt who have not only no social or political experience in Western defined democracy but, ZERO infrastructure to support such a democracy.
w/54, My guess is that there is an instinctive resistance in the Left to even seriously consider Castro or Ahmadinejad as ‘authoritarians’
…could be that reflexive anti-Americanism that sanitizes anyone who hates America, is, under the sort of anti-American Obama admin, a fading dynamic.
Lots of countries can’t feed themselves. Ireland, Iceland, and Israel come to mind, and these are just all the countries I could think of real fast starting with ‘I’. Obtaining basic sustenance is not a problem, however, for citizens of these countries. Food purchases constitute 10% of income there.
The world trade in food is so big that here’s the probable outcome if we imagine that Egypt can grow enough food to feed itself: Egyptian farmers will sell the food on the world market getting the best price they can, and the guy on the street in Cairo will still be in hardship because he still can’t afford it. The problem is, compared to his Irish or Israeli counterpart, he’s just not productive or competitive. That kind of thing is happening even now. Agricultural products have long been among Egypt’s top exports. Even stuff you can’t eat, like cotton, which Egyptian farmers (like farmers all over the world) are planting like mad right now due world cotton prices being the highest they’ve in inflation-adjusted terms since the 1870′s heyday of King Cotton.
There are two paths for a people to take who find themselves behind the eight-ball economically. One, liberalize their economy and get to work. Two, go to war. The Muslim Brotherhood has already phoned in its decision on this, it seems. Shari’a already _is_ the offical law of the land in Egypt even if the version of it currently in place isn’t strict enough for the Islamists there. The domestic battles won’t take long for the Islamists, they’re already on victory’s doorstep.
Then, they’re very likely turn their eyes to their eastern borders. It’s sexier stuff than haggling over tax policies.
@18. Morton Doodslag
Exactly right.
The West has been busily and self-righteously fattening its future executioners for the last century(the islamic ummah has grown from a few hundred million at the beginning of the 20th century to approx. 1.3 billion today, thanks largely to western aid), all the while congratulating itself on its goodness and humanity.
Reality is about to bite us on the butt.
This has happened before, the shift from a military dictatorship to a democracy. In fact, it’s happened twice. It happen in Spain with the end of the Franco regime, and in Portugal with the Colonel’s Junta that ended that country’s strong man rule. Neither nation had a democratic tradition, now both are strong democracies. True, neither revolution saw demonstrations in the street, but the fact remains that both saw dictatorship give way to democracy. It’s been done before, it can be done again.
32. Henry Reardon: the Joe McCarthy [of the Dam Busters] was not the (in)famous Senator who later presided over the House Unamerican Activities Committee in the 50s…”
Senator Joe McCarthy was not on the House Un-American Activities Committee.
Please delete previous misformatted post.
32. Henry Reardon: the Joe McCarthy [of the Dam Busters] was not the (in)famous Senator who later presided over the House Unamerican Activities Committee in the 50s…”
Senator Joe McCarthy was not on the House Un-American Activities Committee.
Egypt will not become a stable, moderate, mostly secular democracy as some have written above. I can’t explain why people believe this may occur; there is simply no evidence for it.
It will most likely remain under military control, under Tantawi, who is hostile to Israel and may ‘include’ MB elements. At some point, the MB will insist on its inclusion and then the fireworks may begin. At some further point, the MB will either dictate policy or simply run Egypt directly or through coopted Generals.
The remainder of the scenarios presented here (the optimistic ones) are indeed a combination of projection and fantasizing about the EXTENT of American influence (not that it doesn’t exist, but it is limited).
26. blert: Throughout the ummah there is absolutely zero desire to limit births.
Not true. Fertility rates have declined substantially in most Moslem countries. For instance, Pakistan went from 6.35 children per woman in 1995 to 3.84 in 2006. This is still much higher than the U.S., but it is down over 40%. Syria declined from 6.55 to 3.21, down over 50%. Algeria was down 50%, Turkey 40%, Iran 65%(!) – and all are now below the replacement level of 2.1. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, down from over 6 to under 4, down 40%. Egypt down 25% to 2.72. Indonesia, the largest Moslem country, is down to 2.34.
ALL HAIL THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC ON THE NILE
On the 32nd anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, one of the most deadly and terrifying in history, Hosni Mubarak went the way of Iran’s tragic Shah as Egypt begins it’s transformation into the Islamic Republic on the Nile. The only walls crumbling are those that divide Mosque and State as a new and more horrible tyranny takes shape arising from a people who hate America, the West and Israeli Jews and want Sharia law to guide their fate. The Gazaization of Egypt is now underway as the Brotherhood of Evil works its way into power joining with Hamas, Hezbollah and fascist Iran in an alliance of unholy terror.
Did anyone else hear the English translation of announcement of Mubarak’s resignation?
It concluded with the words “May God help everybody”. Do you suppose the interpreter knew something the rest of us didn’t?
A suggestion for a Plan B: Morton Doodslag above suggests we need a plan B. I talked about this at my blog:
http://iwantanewleft.typepad.com/i-want-a-new-left/2011/02/a-challenge-to-all-lovers-of-democracy-what-foreign-policy-should-democracies-have-for-dictatorial-o.html
Basically, democracy in the Middle East is nearly impossible because of the extreme divergence of opinions and goals within each country. Some in Egypt (the liberals) want a Western style democracy, but the Muslim Brotherhood seems to want Egypt to turn into Saudi Arabia. For all I know the Copts want Egypt to be like Constantinople before the Turks came. Probably there are still some commies around who want Egypt to be like the old Soviet Union, and maybe there are even some Nasserites, too.
It’s awfully hard to have a democracy under those circumstances, especially when some groups are liable to use violence to squash all the others.
What we need to do instead of promoting democracy or demanding that the ruler institute reforms is to encourage the ruler to demand that everyone in the country become more moderate. The liberals will have to settle for something like Turkey rather than America or Britain. The Muslim Brotherhood will have to settle for something less than Saudi Arabia (Yemen, maybe). The commies, the Copts, the Nasserites, should all be encouraged to settle for less than what they want.
Moderation is actually the key to democracy. It isn’t elections. It is the lack of extremism that makes it work here in America. We’ve got basically two factions here, one (the conservatives) who want America to be America, and the other (the liberals) who want America to be like Europe. There isn’t much divergence here, so democracy can work.
The Middle East is filled with extremists whose basic motto is my-way-or-the-highway and who are willing to kill anyone who doesn’t go along. Try to implant democracy in a population like that and you will fail.
Morton Doodslag, as far as you go I would say you are absolutely spot on.
Intelligent people have the ability to see reality and so our intelligent elites can see what is going on but are allowing and even encouraging the situation that is coming about which will see the demise of western civilisation.
Therefore it would seem what is happening (that you describe) is just what they desire.
Which leads as always to the questions as to why they are doing this, what do they hope to achieve, and what is their end game?
Who will the King of Jordan crawl to?
First Jordan then Morocco and eventually Nigeria. Columbia en passant.
Alan Kellogg
Absolutely none of the favorable conditions in the Iberian exist in the ummah.
EEC mega support is not in prospect. You do know that Portugal and Spain received astounding amounts of Marshall Plan style aid from Germany and France?
You do know that massive numbers of Brits and Krauts vacation in Spain and Portugal?
You do know that neither country was staggeringly over populated needing relentless food imports?
You do know that Egypt’s IQ norms to 83; Portugal’s IQ norms to 95; Spain’s IQ norms to 97; America’s IQ norms to 98?
You do know that means that essentially half of the voting age population of Egypt would be classified as ‘moron’ back in the time when such harsh judgements were made?
You do know that such poor souls are easily led around by the nose — particularly by imams?
You do know that were the vote held tomorrow a theocracy would get a plurality — that the ‘polls’ never interview the average man — because he has no telephone number!
And you can see why illiteracy runs riot, what with stunted IQs and state sponsored schooling?
Get real.
The last time the West got optimistic during a theocratic take down we witnessed a purely reactionary turn for the much worse. ( But Carter thought that their hearts were in the right place. He conflated islam with Christianity. What a boob. Now he’s an islamist puppet and anti-Semite. Good grief. )
Rich Rostrum @69 and @70:
Oops! You are, of course, 100% right! Joe McCarthy was a Senator so he was on the Senate equivalent of HUAC (the House Unamerican Activities Committee), not HUAC itself. Sorry!
75. John Pepple
You’ve got the wrong linkage. America has political opinions all over the map. It doesn’t stop her from having a democratic republic.
A successful democratic republic in the image of America requires enough talent in the right slots to pull it off. It’s an intelligence intensive form of distributed leadership/ management.
As a polity’s normative IQ drops her Smart Fraction ™ plunges exponentially. This is THE critical ( rate-limiting ) brains fraction that innovates AND staffs the job slots necessary for a ‘modern’ economy and polity.
Without them the Want Ads for bookkeeper, salesmen, cashier, general foreman, etc go unanswered. The society is forced to kick the can along at much lower levels of complexity — at the cost of economic efficiency.
THIS is the real driver behind stinkingly low per capita GDPs in the third world. The withdrawal of the detested colonials created a chasmic shortfall in Smart Fraction ™ talent.
Thusly you see ENTIRE RAILROADS disappear into the jungle: roundhouse, locomotives, the works…
The locals could run them — barely — but could not repair them to save their souls. So even though it’s critical priority was obvious, Nigeria couldn’t save her railroad. And it was a ‘gift’ !
Mark Twain style riverboats still ply the Congo. They use British steam engines made in the 19th Century! At this time they are held together with bailing wire and chewing gum by only two guys: the captain and his first mate. Everyone else is too ignorant to understand a steam engine. Naturally the captain is constantly looking for mechanics. They’re too scarce. Even when he finally trains one up from scratch — the boy runs off for a higher paying gig. There are not enough Smart Fraction ™ players to hold the economy together. Hence they are stopped out at steam powered riverboat. ( It runs on chopped wood of which there is no limit at hand. )
That is but a slice of the story. Join the Peace Corps and discover what is really holding back the third world — themselves.
Wasn’t Andy Stern (ACORN, SEIU, etc) visiting Egypt a few weeks before the coup?
Wasn’t Soros paying for these thugs in the streets of Cairo asking for Mubarak’s ousting (hourly rates)?
Wasn’t he going to be paid back by the $60+ billions Mubarak had stored in Swiss banks?
Wasn’t this coup quite profitable for Soros/Stern/BHO?
@ 72 Rich Rostrom
Only Iran and Algeria have TFR below replacement level, all other countries have higher. (Algeria 1.76, Iran 1.89). True, fertility rates declined in all ME countries however in the short run (10 to 50 years) it will not make much difference as the rates are still much higher and the age of marriage is much lower then in the majority of Western countries.
Another data gives somewhat different picture:
Births in 2009 per 1000 persons
US 13.82
United Arab Emirates 16.02
Iran 17.07
Egypt 21.70
Syria 25.90
Pakistan 27.62
Saudi Arabia 28.55
Gaza 36.93
Afghanistan 45.46
Do you think Omar Suleiman is the right choice to become the future leader of Egypt after so many years spent as the right hand of Mubarak? I don’t. The Egyptian people should be given the right to choose freely their own representatives.
Julie…
So then it’s islamist fundamentalists (MB) dedicated to keeping women down, killing the kafir and conducting world wide jihad.
You’re not thinking, you’re feeling.
Swell.
95+ are muslim with their lives controlled by mosques five times a day. Except for the thin slice at the top most are uneducated and half cannot read and live on $2-5 per day. With their clerics they genitally mutilate almost all the young women and even Mubarak could not get them to stop. They are going to support the treaties with Israel and enjoy freedom without the military? Yeah right.