Alex Johnson at MSNBC says: “Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has ticked off the Obama administration [by declaring that Egypt was unready for democracy], but the White House is sticking to its position that he’s in charge of the transition to a new government that it won’t determine.” Pressed on what it would do to rebuff Suleiman, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said:
“I speak for the president of the United States.”
He went on to say, however, that disputes like that “can’t be arbitrated by us.”
Advertisement“That’s going to be determined by the reaction in Cairo and by the people,” he said.
Gibbs’ statement that the response which cannot “be arbitrated by us” is going to come from somebody else, presumably from reactions “by the people,” is the characteristic signature of an administration which has trying to have it both ways. This occurred as demonstrations, rather than dying down, have gotten bigger than ever, according to the BBC:
Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians have poured into Cairo’s Tahrir Square for the latest protest calling for Hosni Mubarak’s government to step down. Correspondents say it is the biggest demonstration since the protests began on 25 January. It comes despite the government’s announcement of its plans for a peaceful transfer of power. …
Wael Ghonim, a Google executive was detained and blindfolded by state security forces for 12 days, was feted by the crowds as he entered Tahrir Square.
Ghonim made a tearful appearance in the Square, where he recounted events that drove him to rebellion. “CAIRO, Feb 8 (Reuters) – One man’s tears provided a new impetus on Tuesday to protesters in Egypt seeking to keep up momentum in their campaign, now in its third week, to topple President Hosni Mubarak.”
Wael Ghonim, a Google executive detained and blindfolded by state security for 12 days, broke down in a television interview on Monday after his release saying a system that arrested people for speaking out must be torn down. “Ghonim’s tears have moved millions and turned around the views of those who supported (Mubarak) staying,” website Masrawy.com wrote two hours after Ghonim’s TV appearance. In that short span, 70,000 people had signed up to Facebook pages supporting him.
The VOA says, “Egypt Protests Swell Despite Government Steps on Reform,” and this new round of unrest may unsettle calculations at a time when the Egyptian unrest appeared to have been put under control by the army, and analysts were already wondering how the U.S. could influence the process — without appearing to influence it. Marc Lynch at Foreign Policy captured the administration’s confusion. He wrote that “Obama is still trying for Egyptian Change” without really trying, hoping some reform would happen without either having the means nor the gumption to actually press for it it:
There seems to be a congealing narrative that the Obama administration has thrown in its lot with Omar Suleiman, abandoned its push for democratic change, and succumbed to short-sighted pragmatism. … But this narrative, so politically convenient for so many different actors, captures only one part of the truth. It’s right that the administration was frustrated by Mubarak’s rejection of the blizzard of messages they sent along all channels on the need to begin an immediate and meaningful transition. …
Despite the rapid consensus that Suleiman has been designated as America’s man in this process, any acceptance of his role is likely by default rather than design. The administration clearly does not want to allow Suleiman and Mubarak to revert to the status quo ante, or to consolidate a new nakedly military regime. … The Egyptian military seems to have a winning game plan, and it doesn’t include the fundamental reforms for which Egyptian protestors or the Obama administration have called.
Releasing the Google kid was a cardinal error.
He’s a weeper. All touchy-feelly…
Kumbaya is not going to affect the Muslim Brotherhood.
The idea that ultra hard core islamists are going to be marginalized is too absurd to discuss.
Graduating photos of Cairo University show how the MB has completely co-opted the fashion of the Smart Fraction elites.
There is absolutely no in between.
el Baradei — what a con.
It is MUCH easier to destroy than to build.
Ghonim’s Google connection should send chills down the spine of all other governments.
I’d say it’s an own goal for Google. The Chinese solution is going to go global tout suite.
Suleiman is correct, a democratic-republic is not in the cards — just the muslim brotherhood.
That the MB comes to power with one vote, one time — it will be salafism on steroids.
I find it hard to imagine Israel stopping the threat without using atomics. We’ve over provisioned the Egyptian Army.
A similar folly is underway in Pakistan.
The Resident may, in fact, not be able to shunt his follies onto a successor administration.
I note with increasing alarm the buzz WRT dirty bombs and AQ.
—
OT
Nibras Kazimi has interviewed the salafist enemy in Iraq. It’s an interesting post mortem.
http://talismangate.blogspot.com/
Think Smart Power. Kind of like the “creative solutions” that Enron was pushing a few years back. It works until it really really doesn’t.
We spent time in a small group with a senior Israeli diplomat when he was in town recently. While he gave some anecdotes about how well they know the Palestinians and how he believes that ultimately the Israelis will be able to come to a tough but acceptable agreement with them, he absolutely bristled that they are under no illusions about who the MB are. It seemed clear that their analysis buys into Eqypt 2011 = Iran 1979 if the MB prevail. For what its worth.
Fundamental principles provide guideposts for setting direction when there is upheaval all around you. So much cannot be known about the Egyptian situation and the problem the Obamatrons have is that they lack guiding principles in world affairs. Wretchard is right: Obama has distanced himself from the side he ostensibly supports, while trying to ingratiate himself to the other side without really engaging them. The guiding principle of the administration seems to be “figure out a way to let Obama take as much credit and as little blame as possible no matter what comes about. George Will famously said regarding the first George Bush’s purported lack of vision: “The only thing George Bush really believes is that people like him should be president.” Obama has a vision, but it is inconvenienced by world events. His vision is that he should reign over a transformation of the U.S. economy. Events in Egypt are a distraction from his vision so his minions are hedging in an effort to minimize his expenditure of political capital. He is devoid of any foundational principles in foreign affairs worth staking his presidency on.
Keith…
Some ‘insiders’ claim that the Resident is already in full campaign mode and has thrown the reins/ reign over to Valerie Jarrett, thus giving America it’s second female President. ( After Mrs. Wilson. )
http://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=Valery+Jarret&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
A lot of people seem confused about whether the MB or the current regime is the greater evil. Others claim one or the other is the greater evil and therefore the other one should be backed. Nobody is pointing to anything that might actually be GOOD, or at least neutral. It’s sad that nobody can find such a thing to point to.
Europe used to be one of the most savage places on earth. For a couple thousand years they killed, raped and tortured each other and outsiders. Finally, one regime coalesced and did unspeakable things, and everyone else turned on them. They threw a war, and EVERYBODY came. Since that was done, Europe has been more or less at peace both internally and externally.
Maybe the ME is the new Europe. Egypt’s current troubles, or a future war with Israel, or some other spark will ignite the whole region in a conflagration similar to WWII, and THAT is what it will take for these people to finally tire of killing, raping and torturing each other and try to live at peace.
If that day comes, I think the US should sit it out as much as we can. Let someone else come in afterward and clean it up a la the Marshall Plan. The ME finally at peace would be worth short gas rations for a few years.
freedom of choice, is what they got.
Because the “Prescient O” praised Indonesia’s “spirit of religious tolerance…an example to the world”, we must assume this is all a case of poor reporting.
Muslim mob burns churches in Indonesia
On the other hand, maybe the “Waffle O” is recommending this form of Islamic expression to the rest of the world…Hmmm…
Re: Egypt
Are we witnessing the “Bluffel O” action figure?
Suppose you had two facts. The first was that the status quo could not last forever. The second was that if the status quo fell it’s most likely successor was the Muslim Brotherhood.
Taken together the two facts force a third: that one had better start creating an alternative to that process. In one sentence that is the justification for the democracy agenda.
The aging dictatorships in the Middle East are going to fall — possibly soon — because they are inefficient and corrupt. They can’t feed their people because privileged few make off with most of the money and stunt the economy.
Given this doom, it seems suicidal not to try and change the structure of the game. The payoff matrix stinks. Doubling down on Mubarak might be a strategy if it could work. But will it work? And if so, for how long? And at what price? How many more weapons — which will be turned against Israel in the end — do the Egyptians need to be given for some measure of temporary cooperation.
Obama’s problem is simple to state. He has to find his way out of the conundrum. But I’m not sure he even understands it.
The most important statement re Egypt today was by Sec Def Dr Gates.
He praised the Egyptian Army very strongly.
Dr Gates is clear that American fundamental interests are served by the Egyptian Army at this point.
According to the Egyptian constitution–if Mubarak resigned there has to be an election within 60 days
–that would mean complete chaos and is NOT in American best interests.
The most probably scenario–
1/ Mubarak keeps his long scheduled visit to a hospital in Germany.
2/ When Mubarak leaves the country Suleiman immediately takes over–with no need for an election in 60 days.
3/ Mubarak can spend a long time in Germany while Suleiman pulls together a credible, coalition transitional government and functional constitution.
The Google angle dramatically changes the face of Egypt for American, Europe, India and the Anglosphere.
Egyptian Arabs, both Christian and Muslim–are no longer seen as ignorant, fanatical goat herders.
These Arabs are now seen as potential– sophisticated, intelligent, High Tech executives.
That is a complete frame change and Suleiman will capitalize on that powerful frame change moving forward.
Dr Gates represents adult supervision of American interest in Egypt–and beyond–at this point.
First let me postulate that most dictators do not wish to either depart nor be remembered as Ceausescu of Romania was. Most of them to some people’s surprise are not cackling Bond villains who spend their days demanding more braid from their tailor but are by their own lights patriots. We can disagree with them and hold to our faith in the redemptive effects of democracy and civilization. They sincerely believe in their paternalistic role. At their worst they see see themselves as their nations Franco, preparing the ground for a King Juan Carlos who will follow after the flames of revolution have burned out. When their charges become obstreperous there are a few policies they can choose among. Each has a historical record.
If a strong Republican is President of the United States then they can arrange an orderly departure. This can result in a fairly comfortable retirement and a stable prosperous future for their people.
If a Democrat is either President of the United States or they are effectively in charge with a divided and crippled government then the besieged despot can expect humiliation and death followed by the descent of their nation into an orgy of immolation. However if they become active enablers of their nations destruction and surrender preemptively then they may be able to arrange a second life for their associates in university campuses and think tanks. That is only if they or their erstwhile supporters are nimble enough to flee with well distributed cash and can calibrate the right degree of anti-Americanism to secure a sinecure.
The third solution for them to turn to if neither variety given above is appealing is the Chinese option. They are now the acknowledged experts on crowd control and dispersal to ensure regime stability. This offers the benefits of extended tenure in their current position. The cost is the further repression of their people while affecting the anti-American sentiments that before could only be uttered in exile, possibly in America. The decision tree therefor demands first a family conference to determine if you wish to stay or go and then a consideration of what fate awaits your people.
“because they are inefficient and corrupt. They can’t feed their people because privileged few make off with most of the money and stunt the economy.”
This sure sounds like Mexico. I think Obama has more in common with Chavez when it comes to democratic movements.
I find it difficult to worry about peace in the Middle East when the US government is enacting genocide against its own people by recruiting job takers and assassins from other nations, namely Mexico. Senator Gramm is a murderous traitor. Nobody votes in this country for what this administration imposes on the governed. Despotism starts and ends at home. USA out of Egypt now.
Vic – “These Arabs are now seen as potential– sophisticated, intelligent, High Tech executives”
-You know, the Koran on my ipod still tells me I’m part of the party of Satan (e.g. S. 58.19). There are high tech executives, and then there’s the Engineering Brotherhood. I rather suspect events will lead to “revelations” somewhat short of your dreamy expectations. Most of the fanatics I know (whether in person or on al Jazeera English) have university degrees.
Technology is not decisive, historically; rather, it’s the ethics behind technology’s emergence, renewal (or loss) and use. How long do you have to Google to learn that?
The Canadian scholar Northrop Frye warned us that a modern university or technological education does not make a bad man good; it makes him more dangerous.
Suleiman is 74 years old. He’s a placeholder until Egypt is ready to hold free and fair elections, monitored by Jimmy Carter, after which, following the example of National Socialism in Germany, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Egypt will elect a gang of thugs who will install a repressive, warmongering and Jew-hating regime.
The media will egg this process on because they’re always for the “little guy”. Right now the Muslim Brotherhood is the little guy. President Zero is a one-termer, but his lasting legacy will be Iran II, and the Mainstream Media will drop this story like a hot potato as soon as the “little guy” starts flogging eighty year old women for being caught outside trying to get bread for her family without the close male family member as the Sharia-mandated escort.
–
Tabari I:280 “Allah said, ‘It is My obligation to make Eve bleed once every month as she made this tree bleed. I must also make Eve stupid, although I created her intelligent.’ Because Allah afflicted Eve, all of the women of this world menstruate and are stupid.”
Annoy- You talking about Lindsay Graham or Phil Gramm? Get yo crackers straight.
No people have ever, on their own, voted for a fundamentalist dictatorship – and that includes the Muslim Brotherhood.
The problem in Egypt and the ME, which so many seem to ignore, are threefold. These are structural not ideological. They are: population, economic mode and political mode. Period.
The population in the ME has exponentially increased in 40 years; in Egypt from 40 to 80 million.
The economy is socialist; that is, it is statist, which means that all revenues primarily come from state-owned resources and industries. In Egypt this is primarily from the Suez canal tolls, tourism and some agriculture. Employment is primarily within the civil service – BUT – these jobs are confined to corrupt nepotism.
The problem is that a statist economy, without private businesses, cannot support such a massive population. It cannot generate enough wealth to even trickle down.
The majority of the population live without regular employment and in poverty.
Politically, the structure is two-class. The Rulers and the Ruled. There is no means of enabling the devt of a middle class economy of private businesses which could generate wealth (small and medium business for internal and external export). The majority of the people have no power to make the govt change.
Result? Poverty – and, for some, a retreat into ‘magical solutions’ or Islamic fascism. But NO PEOPLE ever vote for fundamentalism, and it is naive to think that the Egyptian people would automatically move to accept the MB as their Rulers!
Obama is an ignorant and arrogant idiot. His only focus is on Himself. He wants to be ‘on the winning side’. He hasn’t a clue about economics, history, political modes. So – he’s abandoned the policies, as he has done with every policy – to others. Internal to Pelosi and Reid (that disastrous Stimulus and health care)…and external to…?
What’s needed? An interim govt devoted to: constitutional change to permit opposition parties, a free press, freedom of speech and a fast-track focus to enable private businesses to rapidly develop. During this interim, the various oppositions (including the MB) would be encouraged to develop and voice their policies. Then, the people would vote.
Obama is, just as he did in Iran, ignoring freedom and siding with whoever seems to be ‘the strongest’.
CHANGE!! CHANGE!! CHANGE!! I am so sick of listening to this administration blather on about change. Things are ALWAYS changing. To say you support “change” makes as much sense as saying you support “the passage of time”. Change will happen whether you support it or not.
What we all need to hear is what specifically our so-called leaders actually are working toward. What are the goals of this administration and how do they intend to work toward these goals? We need a President who can actually lead and not one who tries to work every side of every question.
BARRY, STOP VOTING “PRESENT”!!!
The only “asset” that Egypt, and the rest of Arabworld, have in abundance is lots and lots of young men with no future. There is no industrial base to provide enough jobs. There is no agricultural base to provide enough food. There is no intellectual base to solve the deficiencies in 1 and 2.
I don’t think it matters a whit which family, or general or imam ends up in the presidential palace. The probability of Egyptian society, as a whole, saying that we have only ourselves to blame for these most fundamental problems, let’s rally around our new leadership, is zero.
Israel is to blame. America is to blame. Europe is to blame. The guys next door are to blame, and we can walk that far to punish them for inflicting this monumental failure on us.
It’s almost impossible to not see wars across the Levant between the Arab states who will fight for resources and dominion, and between the Arab states and Israel for survival.
I got good new fer ya:
Egyptian journalist: U.S. is next target
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=260941
tip to Creeping sharia
Lindsay Graham Herb,
I was too busy frothing at the mouth to pull it together.
I was just watching some tv show that portayed how most Americans in Mexican prisons get murdered. They usually try to put them in ‘lock up’ for their own safety. What do ex-cartel members do when they get out of prison? They go to didny-lan, kill some crackers and vote for Lindsay Graham.
Why is it OK to murder Americans? Because they are racists who deserve it of course.
Perhaps, wretchard…perhaps.
But then again, maybe what he wanted all along was a very, very…rocky road.
http://theobamafile.com/obamacampaignadvisers.htm
Sometimes we need to look where we have been…to understand where we are.
Virtually every “inner circle” person in his life, (Rashid Khalidi and his wife, Ali Abuminah, Jeremiah Wright, George Soros, …maybe even the Lebanese George Mitchell) holds a certain noxious view toward Israel.
And sometimes, it’s not what you say that counts…it’s what you don’t say.
The fact that a clear message is not being sent, the fact that Wisner says one thing, the administration says another…then it takes it back, then it walks back the take back…LOOKS like rank incompetence and indecision. Maybe it is.
Maybe.
This is what you get with someone that prefers to vote “present” whenever possible. That’s what he’s trying to do in Egypt. But OTOH, even if the Egyptian people hold an election, they will elect the muslim brotherhood. The majority of Egyptians think sharia is a good thing. One vote, one time. 1979 redux.
Another U.S. puppet dictator is the only way to prevent chaos.
MC – “The U.S. will be transformed into an Islamic republic.”
No, we will become a narco-terrorist state. This is what Lindsay Grahamm is working on.
ETAB
you forget that most of the people in the middle east and north africa are young and illiterate.
for all the eductated people there is many many more who cannot read or write. these disenfranchised youth are easy pickings for the muslim brotherhood ..they are the ultimate community organizers.
obama is just playing both sides (like voting present) so that he can spin what ever he choses. he is solidly behind the brotherhood ..he has actively pushed the brotherhood agenda in the ME and here in north america.
get your prayer rug while you still can.
Thanks, Mr. Fernandez, for keeping the heat on this petulant ‘administration’.
These dummies are so juvenile they can’t even get their stories straight. I’m sure the Presidential Daily Briefing has been reduced to a shell game, in order to keep it simple enough for Obama to comprehend it. He’s given the choices of three shells with predetermined “talking points for the day”.
And then he’s given instructions to make sure the tele-prompters are in place before he speaks.
Instead of ‘reality shows’ on TV, why don’t they just show a daily video of this ‘administration’? They’d have millions of followers on ‘Face Book’.
PLEASE!! THIS ‘ADMINISTRATION’ IS NOT THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE MAIN STREAM AMERICAN PEOPLE.
The Harvard/Princeton Studies on the Roots of Terrorism show that–
Lack of Civil Liberties, Not Poverty, Breeds Terrorism
More legitimate political participation = Less terrorism.
Which was the point GWB, Cheney, Rice made.
” the conventional wisdom that poverty breeds terrorism is backed by surprisingly little hard evidence.
“The evidence is nearly unanimous in rejecting either material deprivation or inadequate education as an important cause of support for terrorism or of participation in terrorist activities,” Mr. Krueger asserts.
The 9/11 Commission stated flatly:
Terrorism is not caused by poverty.
So what is the cause?
Suppression of civil liberties and political rights, Mr. Krueger hypothesizes.
“When nonviolent means of protest are curtailed,” he says, “malcontents appear to be more likely to turn to terrorist tactics.”
Which — ironically, given that Mr. Krueger is no fan of the( GWB) president’s actual policies at home or abroad — is close to Mr. Bush’s rhetoric:
“Liberty has got the capacity to change enemies into allies.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118358989440157536.html
Sec Def Gates clearly sees the Egyptian Army as the guardian of Democracy in Egypt, now and in the future.
The economic challenge for Egypt is to build its human-knowledge capital–increased focus on math and science education-higher quality engineering schools–maybe Google will help.
Enforcement of functional international accounting and business practices, property rights etc via the IMF.
Yes! Any day now, muslim women will be giving birth to children with suicide vests.
Even if the United States was to convert to Islam, and speak fluent Arabic, there would be a war as to the correct ‘sect’.
Until these people realize that they are born into a suicide cult, it will be more of the same ignorance.
And then he’s given instructions to make sure the tele-prompters are in place before he speaks.
This story was avoided like the plague by the MSM.
Obama lip syncs his speeches.
Could this guy be any more phony?
#23 johnny – the literacy rate in Egypt is 70%. That’s enough. You are also ignoring the power of the oral communication systems of the internet, twitter, facebook. Because something is discussed orally or in shorthand online style, doesn’t mean it is false or illogical.
Yes, the disenfranchised are readily available to the MB, who provide the essential services of food, health care, protection from the corrupt police – that the Egyptian govt is not providing. BUT – a fascist ideology cannot run a massive economy, and there is no proof, ever, of any people actively voting in a fascist government.
You’ll counter with ‘Hamas’. Think. There was no electoral constitution setting up term limits and constraints on govt power. That is a first, primary requirement in any democracy – that constitution with term limits and govt restraints. In Gaza, the ‘choice’ was between the corrupt Fatah and Hamas, which had been focused primarily on providing the social services ignored by the corrupt Fatah. So – Hamas was voted in. But that’s why they were voted in- for their social services. Not for their fundamentalism. And – without a constitution and restraints and term limits and opposition parties – the people are trapped.
Iran? Same thing. No constitutional restraints and term limits and freedom of speech and the press. Those are basic requirements.
Islamic fundamentalism moves in, under the guise of ‘hope and change’ and then..changes. (hmmm)…and then, once moved in, one finds that the candidate is not a centrist, isn’t pro-American, but is anti-American and the most far-left socialist we’ve seen in control, ever, of the US.
What do you call Obama being against reconciliation and the individual mandate before he was for them ?
What do you call Obama being against repeal of the DC gun ban before declaring (following the repeal of the DC law) that he had found a Second Amendment right for the citizen to bear arms ?
(mighty gracious of ya, Barry)
What do you call Obama being for redistribution of wealth (aka “spreading the wealth around”) prior to the election and denying such to Bill O’Reilly on Sunday ?
Dithering ? Dissembling ? Adjusting your (apparently quite wobbly) principles according to the moment ?
Obama seems as clueless and inept on Egypt as he was on the gulf oil spill where he seemed to think his biggest job as President was figuring out whose ass to kick.
In Gaza, the ‘choice’ was between the corrupt Fatah and Hamas, which had been focused primarily on providing the social services ignored by the corrupt Fatah. So – Hamas was voted in. But that’s why they were voted in- for their social services.
Don’t forget intimidation…those Hamas guys at the polls holding the AK-47′s on “election” day (gee, shades of Philadelphia November 2008)
Or the fact that the US/Condi Rice was so hot for “free and fair” elections to happen in Gaza. (cough)
Hamas/Hezbollah/Muslim Brotherhood set themselves up as the friend of the people as a deliberate strategy. But their real heart lies in the destruction of Israel, and, in the case of the Brotherhood, Islam’s worldwide domination.
The Democrats have ‘passed’ so much legislation during the last 4 years that is up for review/repeal; Wouldn’t it be easier to impeach Obama and declare all his actions/signatures to this legislation null and void?
Peter Boston…
That Onion piece was hilarious. Those jolly jokers !
Victor said:
Have you done a #define American “Elite American” there?
Peter Boston #27
You do realize that was the Onion, yes?
wretchard #8
When the British and other colonial powers faced those kinds of issues they found ways to divide the body politic and make a dog’s breakfast of internecine states and regions. When the status quo ends replace it with something(s) that keep the natives fighting with each other. Empowering MB and giving it the resources of a state should be far from our minds.
Let Egypt hold elections, when/not if, they abrogate peace treaty, will the w0n cut off Egypt or Israel?
Send in the clowns
http://www.stlyrics.com/lyrics/alittlenightmusic/sendintheclowns.htm
Isn’t it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.
Isn’t it bliss?
Don’t you approve?
One who keeps tearing around,
One who can’t move.
Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.
Just when I’d stopped opening doors,
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours,
Making my entrance again with my usual flair,
Sure of my lines,
No one is there.
Don’t you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you’d want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don’t bother, they’re here.
Isn’t it rich?
Isn’t it queer,
Losing my timing this late
In my career?
And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year.
ETAB
I don’t agree with your figure of literacy rate ..not even close.
go to egypt or any of these soon to be muslim brotherhood “democracies” and then tell me they will have freedom.
I just don’t see it turning for the better. I wish it would but nothing I have seen so far indicates a happy outcome.
Maybe Tony Blair will get his prayer answered with: “a democratic theocracy*”.
…-
“Goodbye, Hosni. Hello, Hamas!”
“George Jonas February 8, 2011 – 5:02 pm”
“The dark ages are staging a comeback via the age of enlightenment.
Democracy is opening the door to theocracy. It has in Gaza, and seems about to do so in Egypt. Who would have thought that our cherished political system could be so mischievous?
Perhaps we should all have, for democracy is a repeat offender. It has opened the door to slave societies before, religious as well as non-religious types, such as the Third Reich and the Soviet Union. True, at the end of the Second World War, it also opened the door to its own sweet self in countries such as Germany and Japan, and in 1989, when the Soviet system imploded, democracy established itself pretty much across East-Central Europe.
But let’s listen to U.S. President Barack Obama.”
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/02/08/george-jonas-goodbye-hosni-hello-hamas/
*Tony:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2670095/posts
Suppose you had two facts. The first was that the status quo could not last forever. The second was that if the status quo fell it’s most likely successor was the Muslim Brotherhood.
Lordy, I only wish I had two facts, but in today’s world all I have is a leaky bag containing a mushy pile of factoids, and it’s hard to know where one ends and the next begins.
While Mubarak cannot last forever the “status quo” as a strong man ruler of the nation can last quite a long time, whether it’s passed down within the family or not, in fact the tradition in the middle east is older than Islam – most especially so in Egypt.
And, in my mushy pile of factoids I do in fact find one that looks a lot like, “the most likely successor is the MB”, but what makes it a factoid is I don’t really know what it means. Most likely, as in 51%? Successor, as in, running the country semi-successfully for a decade or six? And what is the second most likely successor (basically none, which is what makes the MB seem the most likely successor – so “most likely” might be a mere plurality over 99% of “unkunks”) IOW, as a betting proposition one might take the odds. OTOH, it’s the size of the pot in human misery that puts one off, you really like to know what it means when you bet on the future. Unfortunately that works in *favor* of the MB, because miserable as it might indeed be, people think it is *predictable*, and that counts for a lot, in certain circumstances. Of such things are factoids made.
30. tanstaafl
you are correct on both the brotherhood and o-BUM-a. …and O’Really is a douchebag.
regards
There seems to be some confusion over the role of democracy. Democracy isn’t the goal; it’s just a mechanism to get people to the goal which is liberty and freedom. The routes to freedom are varied.
As China has shown with its miraculous movement of hundreds of millions of people off the farm into the industrial world it is possible to get partway to freedom with hybrid capitalism. That in turn might drive China to political liberty as well, time will tell. It will be driven by the huge population needing not only a free market economic model but also an appropriate political system to allow it enjoy the advantages they see in the West. A similar formula might evolve out of ME countries; it will have to if they are to feed their big populations.
PB re lip synching… that was just swamp gas reflecting off of a weather balloon and venus rising.
If what he says isn’t true, it ought to be.
Obama saying hands off Egypt (article linked in #37) is like Obama saying hands off Honduras and then proceeding to back the return of the dictator Zelaya.
Or Obama saying hands off Israel and then announcing that continued building in East Jerusalem was a nono, which remark helped Fatah dig in in terms of preconditions.
“Foreign stuff” distracts Obama from his true dream (the one he inherited from Dad) of fundamentally transforming the representative republic into a big government hellhole.
But there’s no way “hands off” is anything but a pose for this man.
ETAB@28 “Same thing. No constitutional restraints and term limits and freedom of speech and the press. Those are basic requirements.”
Mario Loyola at NRO argues that Mubarak has violated no constitutional law in Egypt, therefore deposing him would itself be ‘unconstitutional’, i.e.: vote him out.
“…and then, once moved in, one finds that the candidate is not a centrist, isn’t pro-American, but is anti-American and the most far-left socialist we’ve seen in control, ever, of the US.”
Again,’
Sounds like Mexico. I have spent a fair amount of time in deep Mexico, and god love them, they, especially the women are unabashed socialists. Importing socialist in this country is a threat to all Americans regardless of country of origin, yet, we worry about the illiterate in somebody else’s backyard while we utter NIMBY or something or other.
#36 Johnny – what’s your data base? I use the CIA World Factbook, which says that the literacy total is 71.4%. Male population literacy rate is: 83%; female is 59.4%. Data from 2005 – that’s 6 years ago, and I would presume is higher now.
What’s your data base leading you to come to your conclusion that the people in the ME cannot move into freedom and democracy?
It would appear as if Egypt’s best hope was Gamal Mubarak; young, educated, business friendly and was in process of bringing more like him into the government.
Unfortunately, Gamal faced opposition on two fronts: 1. the military resented the loss of power he represented and 2. the population has a justified distrust of an hereditary government.
t@29 “Obama seems as clueless and inept on Egypt as he was on the gulf oil spill where he seemed to think his biggest job as President was figuring out whose ass to kick.”
It was naught for not. Earned him 20 billion for his friends and supporters. 1 Man 1 vote 1 term.
“Obama is still trying for Egyptian Change” without really trying, hoping some reform would happen without either having the means nor the gumption to actually press for it it:
Hope and Change, baby! Now that’s “smart diplomacy”.
Nom:
There are a very few foundations for a stable society:
Protected property rights. Men should be able to build and protect wealth.
Equality before the Law. No one should have legal privilege.
Enforceability of Contracts. You should do what you say you will do. Keep your word.
Freedom of Speech. Falsehood cannot survive exposure.
Protection of Life. If life is freely taken property is useless.
All of which means that there cannot be an entity with power to abrogate the Rights of Citizens. The citizens should be able to dominate the State.
Im sure that there are more but this is a start. Egypt’s problem is their society is based on islam, which claims that several of the above foundations are not universably operable.
Jimmy Carter II
ETAB
I’ve been there.
the CIA haven’t got a very good track record. lol
#50 Johnny – again, what’s your data base for your assumption of “there is [sic] many many more who cannot read or write”.
Your having ‘been there’ is not a statistical data base. The CIA World FactBook is a legitimate and reliable set of statistics. I suggest you check it out. The CIA is not the same as the CIA World FactBook.
Terrorism is caused by belief systems; ideas. People form opinions about it individually, but based on the belief systems they have accepted.
Other than now days, the only other historical time USA has seen people regularily eager to blow themselves up, in order to maybe get a few of us, was during WWII in the Pacific.
In both cases, the motive was a religion. Religion based on false ideas.
Herb “Egypt’s problem is their society is based on Islam,”
No, that needs to be turned on its head to read: Islam’s problem is that it is based on small nomadic populations. It hasn’t evolved from that.
An economy based on goat herding was where Islam came from. Islam grew out of that. That economy is over.
The problem in the ME is that instead of the Islamic culture based on an expired economic model of tribalism, that obsolete culture got propped up by oil funding from the West, otherwise Darwin would have done his work and Islam would be extinct. It can’t work as a way of life, that’s why they immigrate here. It can’t work because women are equal to men and no economy can operate with religion sticking its nose into the state. So the region will collapse until they find a way to free up its entrepreneurs to feed that many people. Plus the government bureaucracy run by “Presidents for life” can’t create the necessary jobs for an Egyptian population of 80 million people based on a culture of nomads.
The president is reduced to improvisation because he has no strategy for Egypt, and he has no strategy because he’s fundamentally uninterested in the world.
See http://vulgarmorality.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/president-obama-against-the-world/
“Wael Ghonim, a Google executive detained and blindfolded by state security for 12 days, broke down in a television interview on Monday after his release saying a system that arrested people for speaking out must be torn down.”
Dear Wael, do you have any idea of what happens in Iran (or ANY other Islamic regime, including the once-quasi-demcocratic state of Turkey) when “people” speak out against the regime? (Hint: do not look to the Freedom of Speech clause of the U.S. Constitution’s Bill of Rights).
There are markedly few “good guys” in the autocratic Middle East. There are only gradations of dictatorship, ranging from the sociopathic (e.g., Iran) to the fairly benign (e.g., Jordan).
Would but that Liberty was a ubiquitous yearning in the Arab-Muslim world. But it is not.
We must accept that and proceed with policies that protect America, and her allies, from the Islamicization that threatens the Free States of the world.
Egypt VP: Protests Must End Soon
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/08/egypt-vp-protests-end-soon/
mebbe these facetube revolutions aren’t actually working out in the real world.
["It was the picture of man who could not choose between chocolate or vanilla and was simply waiting for the soda jerk to make the decision for him."]
Slightly off topic but……Obama has made only one significant decision in his life. When confronted with white or black he chose the “down trodden African slave victim” as his social, professional and political key for personal gain.
As President, he has NOT offered up even so much as a superficial “plan” much less any comprehensive plan thus, his total lacking in leadership on any subject matter. He leaves all the work and hard decisions on the shoulders of others so he will not take any direct blame for anything should it go wrong or turn out not popular.
His only “talent” is playing both ends from the middle. In Egypt his first declared position was for what seemingly would be the finality move by the people to ouster the ‘Old Fart’ right now. As it became apparent that “right now” was not going to happen, he moved to the position of, the ‘old Fart’ should stay in office to facilitate a smooth non violent transition at election time. Who knows what his next position may be between now and then.
#16 Hangtown Bob has a legitimate suggestion, BARRY, STOP VOTING “PRESENT”!!!
The only problem is….does zippy actually know how to do anything else?
Clueless. Shameless. Out of touch. And so we get President Jarrett.
I thought this was a good article and the last 2 paragraphs had traction for me as it is difficult to know what is going on here.
The Muslim Brotherhood is a case in point. Does the MB have the wherewithal to can future elections if voted into power? Probably not but people are frightened of such a scenario.
Can a democracy exist if it bans a certain type of group or voice? The answer appears to be yes as manifestations of the Nazi Party are banned around Europe in different ways yet Europe seems to have genuine democracy although the European Union has some pretty goofy laws that are eating away at freedoms. In America it is the opposite and anything goes including the Nazi Party.
Despite ACLU cries of the American edifice crashing down based on their ivory tower legalistic view of reality being based on legal precedence, America has survived the dissolution of freedoms during the Civil War, internment camps, jailing people for nothing during the McCarthy era and a whole lot more. That doesn’t mean we should be blithe about such considerations, far from it, but we shouldn’t be throwing up our hands as if the fantasy of that “P” word in Arizona, “profiling”, will result in a fascist state; to a liberal, a fascist state is one with common sense and merit based on deeds.
In fact, the kind of common sense reflected in Senate Bill 1070 in AZ which only wants law to be upheld is a radical view not from the arena typically looked at as freedom squelching, the conservatives, but from the Democratic Party which has bought wholesale into the idea of the U.S. Constitution as a kind of suicide pact at the disposal of the teeming populations of the Third World.
It seems at this point that only a dirty radioactive bomb detonated in an American city, a scenario which is a near certainty at some point, will finally put off liberals from thinking it’s still 1900 and we could use more people, especially if they are the right people who can prove that Jim Crow was just a glitch and that we are perfectly fine now.
The point about the MB in Egypt is, does the MB have the kind of a track record that would result in a continuation of the MB on the outside looking in or is their willingness to seemingly limit their violent radicalism to Israel actually play into the Zeigeist in which the Egyptians view Israel which is to say in almost the worst way?
Speaking in generalities, Egyptians would seem to feel united in wanting the dissolution of the state of Israel but how far they are willing to go to do this is doubtful; it seems mostly bluster and wishful thinking in the face the loss of tourist dollars, foreign investment, International Monetary Fund considerations, and a whole lot more.
Aside from the fact that the Egyptian Army would probably lose any confrontation with Israel, the nation of Egypt has too much on the line to agitate in any real way against Israel. Were Israel to disappear tomorrow it would benefit Egypt not one whit; it would be the equivalent of smoking a joint and staring out the window.
The latest manifestation by Gibbs is probably what the administration should have been doing all along; an attitude that says you don’t tell your friends what clothes they should wear.
In real terms, Egypt is a non-entity on the world stage. South of the great population centers in the north people are riding donkeys the way we use buses in America and their trains are more like Gordon of Khartoum than Amtrak. The water flow of the Nile is only just enough to keep Egyptians afloat and any war Egypt fights in the future will be with the Sudan and not with Israel.
If the West and Israel are indeed behind the splitting off of southern Sudan from the north it is a brilliant stroke. A military base and a new dam that can shut down water on the Nile would leave Egypt helpless unless they go the way of Israel and start investing in desalination tech.
Forget the Muslim Brotherhood. Build a dam in the new state of “whatchamacallit” south of Khartoum and Egypt is putty; faucet on, faucet off. For decades Egypt has said straight out that any diversion of the Nile by the polities south of Egypt would mean war but Egypt will not go up against U.S. or Israeli troops supporting a dam so they can play with the Suez all they want; you can lead a horse to water but if there is none it can’t drink.
In the end in regards to Egypt, the spice will flow, because it must flow – they do not have the luxury of oil to subsidize any radicalism like Iran. To Egypt, the world is one great Golan Heights and they are inextricably tied to it.
That google exec in egypt really sticks out.
This kind of corporate involvement in politics is unusual.
That’s going to have effects all around the world in unintended ways.
What’s google’s unofficial motto. “Don’t be evil.”
Ah well, what do we mean by evil in this context? And why would google coin such a motto.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_be_evil
”don’t be evil” leaves one free to ‘do’ evil –as long as it’s justified by the end –which is a call one can make, if one is able to change one’s human nature.
OTOH the motto “don’t do evil” –is within one’s grasp even in the truth of one’s fallen nature, and is therefore work sufficient unto the day.
The first motto beseeches “Get me behind thee, Satan!”
The second motto prays “Get thee behind me, Satan!”
Obama dithers because he has no moral compass to guide him. Instead he has only a tactical compass which is supposed to enable Obama’s arrival at his domestic ideological destination.
In my opinion, he won’t try for the democracy agenda in the middle east advocated at W#8, because that is not his ideological destination for the US. His domestic ideological destination seems to be command and control and this limits his tactics in foreign policy. For Obama the foreign events of the day are the magnetic pole of his tactical compass. As these events come and go, start in one direction and turn in another; this wandering magnetic pole randomly jerks his compass needle from one quadrant to another. He dithers all over the map in foreign affairs because he tries to keep clear the way to command and control in America.
A better President would articulate and constantly draw attention to a better alternative to authoritarian and Islamist oppressive societies. Middle eastern people may well choose authoritarian oppression or Islamic oppression and the consequent angry poverty. That is up to them, but an American President should make them choose in the face of the bright prospects of freedom to create wealth and freedom of choice. Those prospects should be clearly depicted and constantly advanced by the President himself. He doesn’t even have to use the word “democracy”.
Were Israel to disappear tomorrow it would benefit Egypt not one whit; it would be the equivalent of smoking a joint and staring out the window.
Um, yes and no. For there would be utter euphoria from the Atlantic to the border of China.
Sheer ecstacy.
Absolute, hysterical elation.
Unmitigated, unfettered joy.
(Of the sort where one could declare, “Now I can die, happy.”….And they will, they will.)
And how do you measure euphoria?
Will Israel’s destruction help them materially? No. Especially after the drunken chaos that will ensue; and after the Palestinians are massacred left and right as all factions vie for control of the region between the Jordan and the Sea.
(But this will be merely a footnote. No one will care about Arab killing Arab.)
Put another way: Who benefited in NYC in October 1969 when the Mets won the Series? Who benefited in Green Bay (and beyond) four days ago? Etc.
Yes, how do you measure euphoria?
(For that matter, how do you limit an uncontrollable hatred or slake an extraordinary thirst for destruction?)
There’s an emotional component here, which is real and must be taken into account.
The enemy is still the enemy no matter how much he wants to be your friend (or tries to force you to be his).
Israel’s existence continues to remind its neighbors of their weakness….
…in a region where honor is more important than life itself, where shame is unforgiveable.
In a region where the after-life is more important that this one.
(Is it any wonder why so many don’t understand what’s going on?)
bm/63 –(Is it any wonder why so many don’t understand what’s going on?)
Among the other things going on –such as, the people that the aggressors think are holding them down are the only people who could if given a chance lift them up, and that the things that upset the aggressors are the results of thousands of years of personal choices the aggressors have always been free to make themselves, that these personal sacrificial habits of mind, in being rejected, leave the aggressors so busy rejecting there is no time to learn to achieve –and thus an entire culture collectively sacrifices an entire cultural potential out of pique, and for that bitterness to escape, life is willing to end itself.
And so an impossible thing happens: the only people who can win the war cannot end it, and the only people who can end it cannot win it.
…cannot win it.
Gosh, Buddy, hope you’re right about that….
(But it seems from here that the shoot-and-then-shout-’victim’ strategy may yet prove spectacularly successful, given the world we live in. And they only have to win once…as long as we’re talking about paradoxes.)
Of course, if everyone runs out of money (at the same time?), all bets are off….
15. ETAB
“No people have ever, on their own, voted for a fundamentalist dictatorship – and that includes the Muslim Brotherhood.”
The majority of Gaza voted in Hamas (ideologically equivalent to MB), and polls indicate that if given the chance the majority of the Arabs on the ‘west bank’ would also vote for Hamas and other terrorist factions.
Indications from Egypt are that a significant portion, maybe a majority, would vote MB. MB has their people on the ground and in the mosques, and a long history of opposing the ruling elites.
The other parties have facebook pages and students trying to keep their internet working.
Polls show broad support for Islamism and traditional Islamic values. Also broad support for democracy, which is not incompatible with Islamism when democracy can be reduced to “1 person, 1 vote, 1 time”.
Another data point is that 80-90% of Egypt women have been ritually mutilated (and 10% of the population is Christian, who do not engage in that barbarism). Estimates are only 50-60% of the women are “literate”. Will these women vote independently of their husbands?
#66 Jay – no, you are quite mistaken. I repeat, ‘ no people have ever voted for a fundamentalist dictatorship’.
The situation in Gaza was a vote between the totally corrupt Fatah and Hamas – which was engaged in providing the social services (food, health care, security) that Fatah had failed to provide. The people did not vote for fundamentalism but for a provision of social services and a non-corrupt govt.
The failure in Gaza, to first set up a constitution with limited terms, opposition parties and a free press – enabled Hamas to embed itself and move to authoritarian rule.
The PEW polls are flawed and contain inconsistencies and contradictions. Literacy is 71.4%, with men at 83% and women at 59.4%. And literacy is not the only criterion of being able to think.
Egypt needs to first, amend its constitution to permit opposition parties, set up term limits for elected representatives, permit a free press. Then, allow at least a six month period for opposition parties to organized and develop their policies. That includes the MB. Then – the people will vote.
#59 James May – nice post; thanks for your comments. They are grounded in reality – and so many comments seem to ignore that and instead focus only on the ideology.
As you point out, ideology – the ideas in the mind – must at some time come into contact with reality, and reality doesn’t support a society based primarily around utopian ideas about ‘being a pure people’. The economics of food production, health care, housing and wealth production take precedence. And a fundamentalist Islamic ideology has no economic capabilities.
In my opinion, Obama is NOT clueless. He is shrewd like a fox. He deliberately INTENDS the actions he takes, and the chaos they produce.
Bob
bm/65; you’re right –please amend ‘And so an impossible thing happens’ to “And so an impossible thing has happened, so far”
Why do the US government support Suleiman to become the future leader of Egypt? He has been involved in everything that Mubarak has done and that is now refused by the Egyptian people. These people deserve to choose their own leader.