Ya think? Fox reports that Hillary Clinton has called all available US ambassadors to a meeting at the State Department for a strategy session.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of U.S. ambassadors.
The top envoys from nearly all of America’s 260 embassies, consulates and other posts in more than 180 countries will be gathering at the State Department beginning on Monday. Officials say it’s the first such global conference.
AdvertisementThe gathering comes at a time of crisis in Egypt that could reshape dynamics in the Middle East, fallout from leaked diplomatic documents and congressional calls for sweeping cuts in foreign aid.
According to Politico the agenda will include keynotes by Susan Rice and Admiral Mike Mullen.
The ambassadors hold meetings with their regional bureaus Monday and Tuesday. Clinton is set to address the ambassadors Wednesday about “leading through civilian power,” after a welcome from her chief of staff and counselor, Cheryl Mills. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice will then forecast the year ahead at the United Nations, and Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns will do the same for the year ahead in foreign policy.
The ambassadors will also hear from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen on civilian-military operations in the 21st century, and USAID chief Raj Shah will speak on results-based development.
Although it’s nice to see the State Department reacting to events, how much staff work has been put into the meeting and will there be enough detail and process to focus such a huge meeting on the actionable items. In other words, has Hillary already sketched out a response which is going to be set before the ambassadors, or is this a brainstorming session to answer the basic question of WTF — “Win the Future”?
It’s interesting to compare the administration’s response to the crisis to one which occurred 66 years ago in the Ardennes. At the crisis of the Battle of the Bulge, Eisenhower asked how long it would take him to re-task the 3rd Army to relieve Bastogne. Patton’s answer was 48 hours. The reason he could do this was because he had anticipated that a crisis might arise and had ordered his staff to prepare contingency plans.
Finally realizing that this was a major offensive, Eisenhower sent the Airborne divisions refitting after Market-Garden to take Bastogne and Saint-Vith. The 101st Airborne, whose defense of Bastogne would become legendary, arrived by truck just hours before the town was cut off and surrounded, supported by units of the 10th armored. “Visualize the hole in a doughnut,” the 101st radioed SHAEF Headquarters in Paris, “That’s us.” Bad weather grounded the Allied air forces and prevented resupply. …
After the 101st arrived on December 18, Eisenhower asked Patton how long it would take to wheel his Third Army around 90 degrees and attack the Germans to relieve Bastogne. Patton shocked everyone by announcing he would attack in forty-eight hours. The Third Army, led by the 4th Armored Division, moved through the Ardennes in a lighting maneuver. It would take them six days to reach Bastogne.
Patton was mentally front-running the crisis. Events will soon show whether the plenary scheduled by Hillary signals decisive action or the opening cogitations of an institution caught off balance.
Update:
The meeting of ambassadors was apparently called before the Egyptian crisis in response to State’s straitened budget. In that case it might as well be used as an opportunity to re-evaluate the crisis in the light of the Department’s reduced budget.
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The chances of such a large assembly creating unorthodoxy is zero.
This scheme approaches a synod.
Obviously, the underlying crisis is what is to be done WRT islam and islamism.
Beyond that the Regime has to come to terms with its spending and printing addiction.
And at the deepest remove: deal with the SCO — the true engine of grief.
“In other words, has Hillary already sketched out a response which is going to be set before the ambassadors. . . ”
Yes, and the response will be too little, too late, and a**-backwards.
“. . . or is this a brainstorming session to answer the basic question of WTF — ‘Win the Future’?”
The audience will be allowed to brainstorm endorsements of Hillary’s plan.
The quality of the planning and decision-making is telegraphed in the following sentence:
“Clinton is set to address the ambassadors Wednesday about ‘leading through civilian power’ . . . . U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice will then forecast the year ahead at the United Nations . . . .”
Yes, it will truly be a WTF moment.
You might think that Hilary would want to listen to the assembled ambassadorial-level expertise. But, no, Hillary knows best, always . . . .
Hillary and Barack, pathological narcissists, were made for each other.
“Eisenhowever” is that a Freudian slip or a typo?
Wretchard the Ardennes pivot and the philosophy behind it is quite the contrast with the current Idea of good intentions will see you through. While the Ardennes pivot is probably the most famous of Patton’s use of staff to generate alternative plans, it is not his only one.
The image he projected was a contrast to his use of his staff. In contrast to the Administrations “Since we have the right ideology everything will come out OK” Patton believed the old concept that no plan surevise contact with the enemy, that is why the are called the enemy. For every major move he made he requiered his staff to generate plans for several alternates. This method generate an ever branching series of plans and kept the Germans off balance, even thought they were no slouches when it came to staff work. There was a tale of a German staff officer describing the difference between fighting Montgomery and Fighting Patton. The officer demonstrated by taking small close steps and saying, “This is how Montgomery moves each step is planned and careful, it may be hard to stop but you have no doubt as to the direction he is going.” Then he took bounding random alost leaping steps across the room. “With Patton you couldn’t tell where he was going and he would come at you quicklyfrom a direction you didn’t expect.”
The Obama group takes small steps and they are not planned in the least apparently.
Ambassadors? For advice?
When I took the Foreign Service exam many moons ago, all the questions regarding ambassadors were of the form: “The Ambassador has insulted the wife of the ruling junta’s president, who has threatened to take the entire embassy hostage. What do you do?”
Ambassadors were generally described in the test as politically-appointed buffoons who knew nothing about the country they had been assigned to, and were liabilities which the regular State Dept. folks had to apologize for on a daily basis.
Should that not read “Hillary takes the lead in floundering”
And Blert, actually from this administration
s POV “the underlying issues” is mostly what to do about Israel, not Islam.
But surely you should be lauded for having such high expectations out of them.
blert – SCO?
Apparatchiks respond to crisis by calling a meeting. Clever.
The evening news will explain why the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt is Bush’s fault. Maybe both of them.
Interesting that Obama kept his mouth shut while Iranian shlubs were gunned down in the street demonstrating against the Mullahs yet takes sides when “the people” (meaning Islamists) demonstrate against a part-time Western ally.
Secretary Clinton: Won’t Label Egypt Foreign Policy Crisis Situation
“Eisenhowever” was a typo. Also my keyboard sucks. I’ll upgrade my desktop and go back to it.
toadold-
” The Obama group takes small steps and they are not planned in the least apparently.”
Accurate, but you forgot to mention the direction of travel….
We have a crisis!
Hey kids! Let’s schedule a show!
Lightning strikes the barn.
EDITORIAL: Obama Channeling Jimmy Carter
Egypt is Barack’s Iran moment
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/30/obama-channeling-jimmy-carter/
The Washington Times
7:42 p.m., Sunday, January 30, 2011
As Egypt’s regime totters on the verge of collapse, President Obama is looking less like Ronald Reagan and more like the Gipper’s predecessor, Jimmy Carter. The turmoil in Egypt is markedly similar to the revolution that gripped Iran 33 years ago. Egypt may be to Mr. Obama what Iran was to Mr. Carter.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/30/obama-channeling-jimmy-carter/
we have a belief around here that no meeting with more than eight people in it will lead to any beneficial outcome or action.
sounds a bit like a “Rescue Me” moment
“or the opening cogitations of an institution caught off balance.”
That one. Is State ever NOT caught off balance?
The only US institution with the ability to influence local players that matter is the military, which has extensive contacts with Egyptian officers. This is due to the US supplying weapons and training to the Egyptian mil for the past 30 years. When this thing started the Egytian Chief of Staff and his advisors were in the US.
It looks like the Egyptian mil is waiting for a clear signal from the US to oust Mubarak and reconstitute the government. The officers want to keep the US mil and food aid flowing, so they don’t want to cross horns with us. They are the best hope for a stable (read non Muslim Brotherhood) government forming.
Obama is not communicating with any clarity what he would like them to do. I don’t think he even knows that the US has influence in the Egyptian army. This must be really frustrating to the guys on the ground with the guns who want US aid. Every delay in getting Egypt onto a stable track gives the MB more influence.
The State Department is still debating how to respond to Castro rolling into Havana. They probably have paper wending through the python of Foggy Bottom on what Diem’s assasination means. Chavez will have to take a number and wait.
The amateur hour government can’t even do ‘process’ right. Case in point, the Health Care bill just failed because in 1,000 pages plus Nancy Pelosi didn’t find room for a severability clause. Pulling it together SanFranNan did rack up AF frequent flyer miles adding to the Mideast chaos.
The military has been different and more in tune with America’s historical culture. That is why the statists do not want to build on and use them, as happens in other countries. The Left fear and hate the military and push to destroy it by injecting lawyers gays women and politics.
They honestly think that a meeting with all the ambassadors is the best use of their time right now? That speaks volumes!!
I work for State. This conference was called long before the problems in Egypt. The subject was the probable massive budget cuts facing us when the CR ends.
What is striking about Mrs. Clinton’s first-ever conference of all U.S. Ambassadors is the complete lack of introspection concerning American foreign policy. What are we doing right, and what are we doing wrong, and where, are not even to be considered.
Instead, bureaucrats are given their time in the bright lights. Why would an Ambassador who personally created a great fortune, or who was formerly chief executive creating a business empire—the men and women skilled in human relations and accomplishing goals—stoop to being lectured by bureaucrats about the creative process to be used in improving American foreign policy? Bureaucracy and creativity are oxymorons, and only honest introspection can bring them together.
This is the second great disappointment in Mrs. Clinton’s leadership at State in as many weeks. She badly fumbled Tunisia/Egypt with a lack of honest self-analysis of our national policies regarding peoples’ desires for freedom, and now she showcases bureaucratic vision for the future of American foreign policy. She’s become a true-believer in the Democratic Party mantra: government knows best, collective thinking is creative (not mind-numbing counter-productive), and top-down dictat is more effective than bottom-up emergence of good thinking.
Counter-intuitively to a large meeting of policy experts, her personal insularity is starting to show…and that’s the sign of a closed mind. She badly needs some open-minded, intellectually curious advisers, and she will never find such people in the bureaucracy. I thought Arendt had pointed this out, long ago.
From now on, your name is Flounder.
In other words, has Hillary already sketched out a response which is going to be set before the ambassadors, or is this a brainstorming session to answer the basic question of WTF — “Win the Future”?
WTF is mostly economic, is it not? And I doubt Hillary would put herself out to be shot down, that’s not how management works today – and has never been how bureaucracy works.
Fred @ 17: Hey now, someone alert the NYTimes. Or not! Budget cuts after CR? No more fresh flowers every day? Uh-oh. And this ambassador gig seemed so promising.
Stumbley @ 5: Just what I was going to say, a collection of political hacks, earning continuing education points maybe, but action? There’s a huge staff in foggy bottom, supposed to generate plans.
Patton? Again, modern management style is to have no plans prepared in advance, plead no resources, but would offer to turn their divisions today, would then issue the orders, and nothing would happen but chaos for a month, then they would blame the troops. Yes, well, I *hope* someone says the US military is better organized than that even today, and I hope so, but I’m describing civilian management as I know it today.
Thanks Fred. Am updating post on your info
One can but hope for a mass firing.
If this is about budget, why spend millions moving bodies? An email is much cheaper…
7. epignosis
SCO = Shanghai Cooperation Organization
i.e. the anti-NATO.
It’s a rouges gallery of despotism:
Red China, Putin & Co, a slew of despotic ‘stans…
It’s a coterie of Chinese supplicants whose ambit is to ‘peace-block’ every American initiative to solve WMD threats short of war.
Hu know what I mean?
10: Raven:
The direction? Perhaps in an ever tightenig sprial until they disapear up their own backside?
The constant meme now is that Eygpt is Obama’s Iran ala Jimmy Carter. I fear it is more like the World is Obama’s Iran.
There is no balm in Giliad alas and Nevermore.
The Egyptian Army made an official announcement today that they will not open fire on the protesters — and they are not enforcing the curfew.
The Egyptians arrested 6 Al Jazerra reporters and the US State Dept demanded–and got–their release–which is interesting.
PJ Crowley, spokesman from US State Department, demanded their release.
“The people who reportedly briefed Obama on the Middle Eastern fires over the weekend didn’t include a single specialist – National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, chief of staff Bill Daley, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes, National Security Advisor to the Vice President Tony Blinken, National Security Council chief of staff Denis McDonough, assistant to the president John Brennan and Deputy Director of National Intelligence Robert Cardillo.
Indeed, as Helena Cobban blogged, it is a first-rate policy breakdown of the “blind leading the blind and the blind advising the blind” in the Oval Office.
The time may have come for the “State Department Arabists” who were kept in the wilderness on ideological grounds to replace the long-time pro-Israel activists who surround Obama as advisers.”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB01Ak01.html
“Events will soon show whether the plenary scheduled by Hillary signals decisive action or the opening cogitations of an institution caught off balance.”
It will be yet ANOTHER speechifying session with lots of banal PC mantras and nothing of any substance related to the realities on the ground. Remember, Ambassadorships are political patronage posts and most of these ambassadors are political appointees being paid off by our foreign-relations-astute, voting-present Resident-in-Chief. It will be only another in a long line of circle-j**ks made famous by this administration. Leaders around the world are laughing at the incompetance of our Resident and are coming to realize that the U.S.A. can no longer be trusted.
So, if the M.B. takes over Egypt’s government…To avoid being labeled as the “President who lost Egypt” will Obama cite Hillary’s failure to advise him properly? After all, she took the lead.
I think Fred’s right, this meeting was set up long ago and it will accomplish precisely nothing. They may not even discuss Egypt.
So far, Obama’s behavior has been entirely consistent with his prior behavior during the gulf oil spill. But then, Obama’s a talker, not a doer.
To respond to Stumbley @12:33PM, ambassadors are either political appointees or career State Dept employees. The political appointees are the ones sent to western Europe or other places they’d like to be. The careerists are the ones sent to Iraq, Afghanistan, other hardship posts, or places really rich friends of the president don’t want to be.
The career ambassadors are less likely to mouth off and insult the local ruling junta, but they have their own problems w/ myopia and other problems caused by hanging around the State Dept for decades.
Wretchard @ 9 said:
“.. Also my keyboard sucks. I’ll upgrade my desktop and go back to it.”
Go to your local electronics junk store and get yourself an old IBM Model-M keyboard. There’s actually a Wikipedia article about them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_M_keyboard
All my computers including the one’s I use at work are Model-Ms. Accept no substitutes. The IBM Model-M is the world’s best keyboard.
Victor: The time may have come for the “State Department Arabists” who were kept in the wilderness on ideological grounds to replace the long-time pro-Israel activists who surround Obama as advisers.”
“Long-time pro-Israel activists”. Like who? Maybe Brezezinki who suggested shooting down Israeli jets? Or Robert Malley who was personally in contact with Hamas?
You’ve got to be kidding.
rest assured, what ever team obama decides to do, the outcome will be bad for everyone, and we will continue to drive over a cliff.
In that case it might as well be used as an opportunity to re-evaluate the crisis in the light of the Department’s reduced budget.
oh, snap!
No matter what this conference is supposed to be about, all strategic thought in the White House is about re-making the Construct which occupies the Oval office.
Each change of the political seas requires a re-manufacture of the Construct. That is why a robot serves as the Foreign Secretary. Like all those books where the ring bearer is weakened each time he uses the magic ring, the Construct is weakened each time he is re-manufactured. One day the Construct will simply fade away and leave nothing for the robot and the elves to re-manufacture.
This isn’t a conference – it’s an Obama re-manufacturing workshop.
A meeting at State begins with an opening statement by Hillary Clinton, reminding the assembled glitterati of the seriousness of the situation.
A crisis is upon us while
We’re sitting here discussing
What’s happening along the Nile
Please Susan stop your fussing
As I was saying things look tight
Mubarak may be leaving
No Susan you don’t look a fright
What, John, you’ll not be grieving?
I’ve heard friends in Court of Saint James
Are standing with us, yes Fred
They share our goals and share our aims
Was that ‘rubbish’ you just said?
And please stop passing little notes
No longer we’re in high school
And making little paper boats
Is not what thinkest I cool
But please I beg you, do attend
We have our work to tend to
Please Harry I will not offend
But hold your mail to send to
Ambassador, it gives me pain
To have to say to you now
Just please put up that aeroplane
Or I shall have a moo cow
The yoots want Mubarak away
With riot mobs as we speak
So think of what we’ve said this day
And meet again here next week
Comments in one of yesterday’s posts speculated on the return of Bill Clinton. As the president weakens, here is Bill’s opening. Many who love him, picture him hovering behind Hillary anyway and should she step into the VP position his imaginary presence will help her appear more congenial to that cohort.
30. Unsk
Not to worry, Susan Rice is in charge…
What could go wrong?
O/T:
Senator Grassley writes to BATFE acting Director General, stating allegations that the agency was enabling gun running accross the Mexican border and that one of the guns was allegedly used to kill a US Border Patrol agent.
Second letter warns acting DG Melson that interfering with a whistle blower is a criminal offence.
Links to letters here
http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-national/breaking-news-grassley-writes-melson-on-project-gunwalker
What a crisis does is re-arrange organizations and their routines in ways that were heretofore politically impossible. The Egyptian crisis is unlikely to be severe enough to force a real change in Washington. What may happen as a consequence, however, may be serious enough to do it.
Nothing short of the loss of Saudi Arabia and a real oil crisis could do it. Maybe the threat of war involving Israel might, but only if either Israel falls or it threatens to go nuclear.
Therefore the game must be to quietly create a “shadow” set of leadership nodes, much in the same way it is done in parliamentary organizations, even with the bureaucracy, so that if the crisis truly comes then a contingency plan will be in place to try and salvage what remains.
Nobody can say what form the crisis might take. Maybe something so serious that Washington actually asks whoever is incompetent to form a unity cabinet, or even, as Nixon did, to resign. When you think about what it took to make Nixon resign, it’s wasn’t much by comparison to what might now befall.
Are there enough competent Republicans and Democrats to do it? I think informal conversations and alternative plans should go forward earlier rather than later, so the “staff work” is done to the extent it can be.
Because the problems are immense. It is one thing to say “Hillary and Barack have made a hash of it.” But it is another thing to come up with a sounder plan. There are many losing moves in any game, but there are only a few winning ones. Which are those?
Blert, is that Susan Rice the long-time pro-Israel activist?
The ONLY plan that can be acceptable to Washington is one that kicks the MB entirely to the curb.
The MB and their Qutbist schtick is a bone that cannot be swallowed.
El Baradei should be placed on the curb if not on the receiving end of wet work. He is and has been a stooge for the enemy for years.
Hence his acceptability to the MB.
If it should come to pass that the MB gets on top — we shall see a reign of terror as far reaching as the Stalinists or Maoists. The Nile will not have enough water to wash away the blood.
39 maineman…
Susan Rice has been quoted making no end of anti-Israeli comments over the years.
I leave it to the BC to cut and paste. Think of her as the anti-Bolton.
w#38: Whoa Nelly! In a business the people who are doing the contingency planning are the very people who will be taking action during a crisis. That may include pushing aside an incompetent CEO. Straightforward and legitimate.
In a Nation State and I know that is not in any way your suggestion but; please remind people that planning for a succession of power that will have no electoral mandate has several unpleasant and dangerous names. As I understand it there are constitutional mechanisms that both protect the Presidency and allow special types of power sharing in times of crisis.
Sufficient unto the day.
Israel shocked by Obama’s “betrayal” of Mubarak
“The question is, do we think Obama is reliable or not,” said an Israeli official, who declined to be named.
“Right now it doesn’t look so. That is a question resonating across the region not just in Israel.”
In any event, the Copts are in deep shit and should be making plans to get out.
Victor never misses an opportunity to bash Israel.
Tell me, which of the 57 states of Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) are you from.
I’ve always thought that when our pResident declared that there were 57 states, it was just a slip of the tongue as to his where his heart was truly at.
So, wretchard (#38), if “Israel ~ threatens to go nuclear.” will 0bama send special forces into Israel to secure their Nukes? I believe there is a greater chance of that being discussed by 0bama and Hillary then they discuss anything of real value concerning Egypt, of course 0bama and Hillary won’t jump the gun on discussing what might happen with Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
When you think about what it took to make Nixon resign, it’s wasn’t much by comparison to what might now befall.
Clinton had three times more reasons to resign than did Nixon, and he stayed on and made it through. I leave it to the reader to do the math regarding Obambus. I’m shocked, shocked at the racism implicit in even considering such eventualities … for a start.
44. Interesting Connections
In any event, the Copts are in deep shit and should be making plans to get out.
January 31, 2011 – 3:48 pm
Where will they go? This is not snark or a trick question. Honestly, where will the Copts go?
Interesting Connections @ 44 said:
“In any event, the Copts are in deep shit and should be making plans to get out.”
There are currently 9 million Copts in Egypt. Who is going to grant them sanctuary after the Islamic fascists take over? To provide some perspective, at the beginning of WW-II, there were 523,000 Jews in Germany and 3.3 million Jews in Poland (the Jews murdered in the Holocaust came from all over Europe and not just Germany). If the MB takes over Egypt, we’re probably looking at a Holocaust worse than the Jewish Holocaust of WW-II. The Coptic population never went through a diaspora as the Jews did and remains concentrated in the Nile Valley. Coptic culture will be almost entirely extinguished if the Islamic fascists gain control of Egypt. Again, the Copts are the original Egyptians. Their ancestors built the Pyramids and created the ancient Egyptian culture. Also the Coptic Orthodox church is one of the oldest branches of Christianity. Coptic genocide would be a horrific loss for the entire human race.
Wretchard @ 9 and Eggplant @ 29
You can get a new model M from unicomp. I wear out membrane type keyboards, but never a killed a model M. There is no need to suffer. As a bonus it will outlast scores of ordinary keyboards – so it is cost-effective.
Got a new one for a new computer at work this year:
http://pckeyboards.stores.yahoo.net/en104wh.html
c.w.
Reuters Headline
Analysis: Egypt crisis a fresh dilemma for Obama team
The latest word is that the obama money brain trust, Geithner & Bernanke have recommended taking the dilemma and making a 1.8 trillions dollars worth of dilemm’in-aid.
46. CharlesWhite
So, wretchard (#38), if “Israel ~ threatens to go nuclear.” will 0bama send special forces into Israel to secure their Nukes?
Subotai Bahadur addressed this scenario several months ago (don’t remember the BC thread title). At the time the Obama administration was in the process of abrogating agreements to supply Israel with bunker buster bombs and diverting them instead to Diego Garcia, along with additional bombs from our West Coast stockpiles.
The speculation was that the US was making contingency plans for having B2′s from Diego Garcia take out Israel’s nuclear stockpiles, launch sites and the facilities at Dimona in order to eliminate Israel’s nuclear strike capability. Presumably those options are still available.
colderwater @ 50,
$100 is fairly dear for a keyboard, even a Model-M. Model-M keyboards are almost indestructible so it makes sense to buy a used one. Typically the guys running electronics junk stores don’t realize the value of Model-M keyboards and throw them into the same bin with the Chinese trash. There’s a Model-M being offered for sale on eBay but the seller wants too much money for shipping (typical) and the bid price is already too high. Much better to nab a couple from a local junk store.
Aardvark @2
I thought WTF was supposed to signfy Weasel The Finances.
52. tharkun
I believe if the US tried to use B2′s or covert operatives that Israel should and would launch on threat hitting all Islamic targets. …NEVER AGAIN.
The speculation was that the US was making contingency plans for having B2′s from Diego Garcia take out Israel’s nuclear stockpiles, launch sites and the facilities at Dimona in order to eliminate Israel’s nuclear strike capability. Presumably those options are still available.
The other wrinkle is that if Egypt closes the Suez, Israel’s subs, now based in the Med, would have no way to reach their war stations in the Arabian sea; not without going around the Horn of Africa. That plus the fact that the IAF must transit Iraq or the KSA to get to Iran means that the Israeli nuclear deterrent will have no route to Iran.
This could in certain circumstances be destablizing. What nukes do is discourage wars. Of course, if they don’t discourage wars then the fact that nukes exist turns into a liability because they may wind up being used once deterrence fails.
An Israel without a nuclear option would be an invitation to invasion from its numerically superior neighbors. Yet if Israel could find some way to deliver its nukes the worst of all possible worlds beckons. One in which Arab states mistakenly believe Israel’s nukes are checkmated and invade, only to find Israel has figured out some way to deliver the nukes.
By fiddling with Israeli deterrence yet not supplying the equivalent, such a policy would invite miscalculation on both sides. The main use of nuclear weapons is to keep them from being used, paradoxical as it may sound. This was clear to generations of Cold War strategist, some of whom I hope are still around to counsel the President today.
13/steeple: “no meeting with more than eight people in it will lead to any beneficial outcome or action.”
I have a formula to go with that observation. The probability of reaching agreement in action within a group of N people can be found as 2 raised to the -(N-1), where N >=1.
f47…
Vic has established a reputation as a Turk.
That’s also why, not withstanding his prose, he has chasmic gaps in knowledge.
He’ll post dang near anything.
In a Nation State and I know that is not in any way your suggestion but; please remind people that planning for a succession of power that will have no electoral mandate has several unpleasant and dangerous name.
In a paraliamentary government there are ways of changing leadership through no confidence. In the US it is much more complicated, but there are still constitutional methods. One was demonstrated by Richard Nixon. A president can be persuaded by his party to resign, or do so in the appreciation that such an action would be good for the country.
As long as there is bipartisan support and everything is constitutional, no obstacles need arise. It is fundamentally a political question.
The Washington Post wrote at the time, “After two years of bitter public debate over the Watergate scandals, President Nixon bowed to pressures from the public and leaders of his party to become the first President in American history to resign.”
He was not in fact, impeached. Bill Clinton was impeached, however, but subsequently acquitted. Yet at any time he might have resigned.
Neither the charges against Nixon nor Clinton involved “high” policy issues. Nixon had recently been re-elected by a landslide. Clinton, though he may have had his faults, was generally considered a competent President. The problems of the one were “a second rate burglary” and those of the other “all about sex”.
In a case where the President is manifestly unable to meet the standards of his office — which is the case posited here — it would arguably be more dangerous to debate the question of changing CEOs outside the political process. Watergate was all about replacing Richard Nixon before his term ended and it took the form of Congressional hearings etc. Whether or not that was wise is open to historical debate. But it was clearly done in a Constitutional manner and over an extended period and for what was arguably an entirely political motive.
The political campaigns to force Nixon and Clinton to resign were ironically less dangerous because they were about relative trivia. They did not occur at a time of crisis. Much more problematic is a situation where a President loses support in the midst of a genuine crisis. Because the effort comes at a time when he is exercising many of the powers of Commander in Chief. In wartime attempts to persuade a President to resign will have the look and feel of mutiny, treason or insubordination. The greater the crisis, the greater the risk that steps undertaken then will appear like a putsch. And therein lies the dilemma.
All things being equal a process that unfolds slowly, soberly and in the mainstream of a political process is preferable to a resolution that has to happen with all hell breaking loose.
OK, first if you want to understand the nature of the Foreign Service, read the late Keith Laumer’s Retief novels. That was not satire, it was documentary. Except we do not have any Retief’s.
Leaving aside the inability of any group that large to make plans for lunch, let along geopolitics; we are missing one other option. When the camel dung hit the rotating airfoil, where was our Allerhöchsterdiplomatiedame? She chose to go to Haiti to confer on the permanent political chaos there; instead of concentrating on Egypt. If there is anything even more unlikely than bringing democracy to the Ummah, it is creating a stable and even marginally honest government in Haiti. It is not possible, because of the indigenous culture [not the people, the local culture].
It is possible that if there is anything operational to be discussed beyond trying to make sure that any budget cuts do not affect the upper levels; it will be Haiti. After all, if anyone attaches their name to any ME policy initiative now; it will be there as it likely blows up. If Haiti gets hit with a 100 foot high tsunami, a Richter scale 10 earthquake, or an Ebola-Zombie plague … singly or in combination, it will not affect the reputation of anyone involved.
Nothing will come out of this meeting that bears on ME policy. Or that will end up enhancing HRC’s reputation.
Subotai Bahadur
Although I will not predict any useful policy change coming out of Hillary’s Chief Of Mission conference, I don’t share the general feeling of pessimism that permeates this thread. I worked for about a dozen ambassadors in my career, including working as deputy chief of mission to three, and there is no doubt some were good, some out of their depth, and at least one was in the job because he had friends in high places.
But a COM gathering is not unusual, although perhaps it is for the entire world — they used to be convened by the Assistant Secretary for each geographic bureau, so included some 15-20 COMs, all from Africa, for example, or Asia. And they usually spent most of their time with their respective geographic Assistant Secretaries. It was not uncommon in my time for the conference to be addressed by the Secretary. Many of them actually had a fairly good relationship with the secretary. And yes, they were also addressed by someone from the Pentagon and various other agencies.
So all of this looks to me like more of the same — nothing really new here except perhaps that COMs from all geographic bureaux will be together. But an annual meeting was certainly not unusual.
I suspect little will come out of this that will be made public, and that nothing will emerge that will change my conviction that Obama is way out of his depth. F
The problems of the one were “a second rate burglary” and those of the other “all about sex”.
Nosir.
The problems with Clinton included filegate and travelgate and using the office of the president to blackmail Monica Lewinsky and Linda Tripp, “bimbo eruptions”.
I consider any of those three sufficient for removal from office, and certainly all were more serious in criminal terms than “a third rate break-in”. Googling … split the difference: “third-rate burglary”.
It was the luckiest day in Bill Clinton’s life when that clown Ken Starr started to focus on sex and lies instead. In any case, Starr’s job should have been to investigate for three weeks, document it all, submit it to Congress, and go home.
Was Clinton a “competent president”? Eh. His biggest virtue was his tiny ambition, in fact, even getting there was probably more Hillary’s ambition than his own. Competent, oh, I suppose so. More so than Zippy.
Just heard Governor Brown (aka Moonbeam) of California give his state of the state speech. Brown, even at age 72, has probably thirty IQ points on Zippy. Which didn’t keep him from a few more gentle rips of the Republicans than I felt were necessary. Anyway it was just a speech, what we need is action, and I don’t believe his IQ points are going to help much with the retards in the legislature.
55. Habu
52. tharkun
I believe if the US tried to use B2′s or covert operatives that Israel should and would launch on threat hitting all Islamic targets. …NEVER AGAIN.
January 31, 2011 – 4:59 pm
The West miscalculates if it believes the sole targets would be Islamic, Arab, Muslim or Persian.
While I am sure it is just symbolic, tribal hyperbole, consider:
A noise is come even to the end of the earth; for the LORD hath a controversy with the nations, He doth plead with all flesh; as for the wicked, He hath given them to the sword, saith the LORD.
Thus saith the LORD of hosts: Behold, evil shall go forth from nation to nation, and a great storm shall be raised up from the uttermost parts of the earth.
And the slain of the LORD shall be at that day from one end of the earth even unto the other end of the earth; they shall not be lamented, neither gathered, nor buried; they shall be dung upon the face of the ground.
8. Peter Boston: The evening news will explain why the Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt is Bush’s fault
Assuming the narrative that a Muslim Brotherhood takeover is bad. More likely the Libstream Media will applaud the rise of the “underdog” who will blow the Philadelphi route wide open and supply Hamas with crap from Iran. Ahmedinejad’s ships don’t even have to slow down, they can toss the stuff on the sand berms along the Suez Canal as they pass through, and by the time they hit the Med and are subject to boarding and inspection they’re clean.
I don’t see what a meeting that includes Ambassadors from Chad, France, Chile, Iceland and Borneo can all have to discuss at the same meeting. Display of the Presidents picture? Issuing visas? Wine lists? The price tag for this will run in the multimillions and serve no useful purpose.
The West miscalculates if it believes the sole targets would be Islamic, Arab, Muslim or Persian.
It’s called the Samson Option. If the State of Israel has to go out, they’ll take the world down with them. I just have one request, that you do this thing in the Name of the Holy One of Israel. There’s not enough nukes in the IDF arsenal to take out all human life on Earth, and it’s important that the survivors know what deity was invoked when it happened.
A big part of the reason why parliamentary governments, like the UK, can sustain rapid changes of ruling party, is because of the permanency of senior civil servants through multiple administrations.
In the US a change in administration means a change in senior civil servants–there is no institutional memory.
-Egypt will move to the Turkey model– with the Army guarding democracy and moving in to take over if chaos evolves.
-Our US military has extensive, long term relationships with both the Egyptian and Turkish military.
America needs to pursue our fundamental interests in our foreign policy, if Israel is in alignment with our interests – fine.
Currently Israel is not in alignment with our American fundamental interests.
Israel has become a liability rather than an asset for the US
–Barak– and other Israeli politicians have been clear about that
–the current regime in Israel is now a de facto One state/Apartheid state/ Colonial state.
–That is not the American Way.
No country is an existential military threat to Israel.
General Petraeus recommended putting Israel under CENTCOM, which would have protected it from all significant threats
–they rejected the offer
–they have also consistent rejected our requests that they stop colonizing the Holy-land- over many years.
The only existential threats to Israel are
1/ International boycotts–which are building momentum
2/ The emigration of human capital–which is taking place now
3/ The future demographics of the One State Solution–which is their momentum strategy.
Commerce with all nations
- Alliance with none
Thomas Jefferson
IF there is ANYTHING you can count on is out-of-the-box thinking by Jews.
There is no way on Earth that I’d ever contemplate crossing swords with them.
There is no prospect that ANY American attack against Israel could possibly succeed, starting with our own totally conflicted armed forces. The blow-back would be beyond anything the Zero could possibly imagine.
Stepping into the shoes of Adolf… I don’t recommend it.
It sure would make the madmen of Tehran pleased as punch, though.
ALL prior estimations of Israeli deterrence power must be re-calibrated now that the Zero is on the button.
As for the zany notion that Tel Aviv shares any of the classic limitations on strategic options — think again.
———
All of this talk about giving the keys to el Baradei so that he can joyride and then ‘flip the drive’ to the MB is insane. el Baradei can only run his mouth –never a government. The MB see and hear that. Naturally, they love him. What a beard.
#66 Teresita said…
It’s called the Samson Option.
Do you never tire of being a fool. If there were such an option, it became obsolete in 1973…
The Navy allows you way too much free work time.
#66 Teresita said…
it’s important that the survivors know what deity was invoked when it happened.
January 31, 2011 – 6:07 pm Link to this Comment
Why, dear heart, they will have you to tell them; and you so want tell them…but…but…but…G-d is dead?
link
blert: ALL prior estimations of Israeli deterrence power must be re-calibrated now that the Zero is on the button.
The Mount Carmel fire tells me Israel isn’t ready to deal with civil disasters, unless they applied Lessons Learned really quick. Part of deterrence is the ability to absorb hits.
Vic…
It’s painful to see you mock yourself time and again…
There is so much junk in your posts they’re not worth Fisking.
Just…
Please…
Stop.
#69 allen –
#66 Teresita said…It’s called the Samson Option.
Do you never tire of being a fool. If there were such an option, it became obsolete in 1973…
A vulture was hacking at my feet. It had already torn my boots and stockings to shreds, now it was hacking at the feet themselves. Again and again it struck at them, then circled several times restlessly round me, then returned to continue its work. A gentleman passed by, looked on for a while, then asked me why I suffered the vulture. “I’m helpless,” I said. “When it came and began to attack me, I of course tried to drive it away, even to strangle it, but these animals are very strong, it was about to spring at my face, but I preferred to sacrifice my feet. Now they are almost torn to bits.”
“Fancy letting yourself be tortured like this!” said the gentleman. “One shot and that’s the end of the vulture.” “Really?” I said. “And would you do that?” “With pleasure,” said the gentleman, “I’ve only got to go home and get my gun. Could you wait another half hour?” “I’m not sure about that,” said I, and stood for a moment rigid with pain. Then I said: “Do try it in any case, please.” “Very well,” said the gentleman, “I’ll be as quick as I can.”
During this conversation the vulture had been calmly listening, letting its eye rove between me and the gentleman. Now I realized that it had understood everything; it took wing, leaned far back to gain impetus, and then, like a javelin thrower, thrust its beak through my mouth, deep into me. Falling back, I was relieved to feel him drowning irretrievably in my blood, which was filling every depth, flooding every shore.
Franz Kafka, THE VULTURE
See: Louis Rene Beres’s interpretation, and reconsider poo-pooing the Samson Option – http://www.freeman.org/m_online/jul03/beres2.htm
Wrethard – how many balls can 0bama keep in the air at the same time?
Nixon was a paranoid, but a patriotic one who tried to do the right thing.
Bill was a pig and money hungry good old boy, who tried to keep away from Hillary.
What is 0bama who has no sympathy or understanding for the average joe, who also seems to fear his wife?
72. blert
“Patton was mentally front-running the crisis. Events will soon show whether the plenary scheduled by Hillary signals decisive action or the opening cogitations of an institution caught off balance.”
Patton / Hillary = Churchill / Chamberlain
Patton / Hillary = Boy Scout / Code Pink
Less Talk – More Action
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI7YzUKE_wI
72. blert
You are living in denial
Bibi is still whining about the American traitor –Pollard–Bibi demands his release.
The spy — Pollard–was responsible for the death and torture of many American intelligence assets and $Billions in lost SIGINT.
Pollard should have been executed, like the Rosenberg’s–and his body handed over personally to Bibi
–in a coffin
Commerce with all nations
- Alliance with none
Thomas Jefferson
Victor: The spy — Pollard–was responsible for the death and torture of many American intelligence assets and $Billions in lost SIGINT.
There was a moral hazard created, I think, Victor, when Israel took out one of our SIGINT vessels on June 8, 1967, and there was no retaliation. Keeping Pollard on ice re-establishes US deterrence.
The inflection points in a political system occur not when its opponents cease to believe in it but when its supporters lose faith in its ability to deliver what they counted on it to do. When Mubarak’s supporters give up on him, then his fall is assured. By a similar process the administration’s real crisis will begin when it can no longer provide what its supporters believe they have “won”.
It’s not a system’s enemies which bring it down so much the loss of credit among its faithful.
That’s why an economic crisis is so destabilizing. It hits people where they live. A crisis in social security, pensions; a rise in inflaton, a prolonged depression in hiring rates, state bankruptcy, etc. has the effect of making the supporters of the Big Government model lose faith in the model itself.
Once that is gone, the crunch comes really quickly.
How far is that moment? I don’t think anybody knows. But I will make the claim that it can come suddenly. Some event like “the day the dollar died”, or a huge spike in gas prices; maybe a second and fiercer financial crisis, or a dreadful event — alone or in combination — can be upon the world in a relative blink of an eye.
Since September 11, 2001 the inflection points may have been coming at a faster rate, or perhaps I imagine them so. Perhaps Egypt will quiet down and we’ll paddle along for a while, but something else will crop up, big and fast. At some point faith in the system to cope may be lost. Not in the next crisis, or maybe even one after that. But if they’re arriving at an accelerating rate, then one day and of a sudden.
What if a crisis came that nobody believed the Fed or the President could cope with? In the Arab world the masses, long sedated by government handouts, no longer believe the handouts can feed them. Once everyone realized everyone else was thinking the same thing, then bang.
Imagine for a moment that a kind of Mubarak moment came to Washington: what then? That would be a very, very dangerous period.
And maybe that danger has already been recognized; which is why all these Constitutional but “out of the box” solutions like Tea Parties, state compacts or repeal amendments or lawsuits against the Federal government have proliferated.
I’ve have argued elsewhere that the real value of all this popular organizing lies not in what they propose but in the experience of their formation. It’s the Rolodexes they’ve accumulated on the way to forming the Tea Parties that is really crucial. They create the neural pathways for response.
A response to what? I don’t know. But there’s something out there in history coming at use. You can sense it but vaguely and can’t really prepare for its emergence. Or maybe it’s nothing at all. Who knows?
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/why_we_should_fear_the_moslem.html
56. wretchard
If the Suez was closed to Israel, it would impede the movements of Israel’s TURBO POPEYE armed DOLPHIN-class subs. There would be alternate means of taking out targets that would have been assigned to them after transit of the Canal. Aside from going the long way around [which I suspect would probably require a tender vessel]; Al Quada is not the only entity that could follow what is referred to as the SCUD-in-a-bucket scenario. With a launcher far more capable than a SCUD. And there are other means conceivable.
The IAF would have greater difficulty penetrating to Iran to use gravity nuclear weapons. However, Israel has quite a respectable arsenal of ballistic missiles with sufficient range and quantity to deal with Iran and the rest of the Ummah. One interesting point that is overlooked by most observers [who also tend to overlook the possibility of Israeli use of strategic weapons at all] is that if they have to use them at all, there is no point in restricting their use to just a few targets. The consequences to Israel from the rest of the world will be the same if they take out one nuclear weapons site, or if they go full bore Masada Plan. In fact, their willingness to go full bore would tend to make the other world powers hesitate, realizing that any retaliation on Israel was likely going to bear an unacceptable cost.
One of the trends in the Middle East, is for the world to try to foreclose any possibility of any kind of conventional attack on the threats to Israel’s existence. That may indeed be considered “peacekeeping” by the West. However, if both diplomatic and conventional military means are foreclosed, it makes the use of strategic weapons more likely.
I offer a reminder of the American orchestrated Oil Embargo against Japan in July-August 1941. Japan was faced with literally running out of oil in 6 months or going to war. In September, an Imperial Conference decided that if diplomatic means did not restore the flow of oil by mid-October, a decision would be made on whether to go to war, and the Imperial forces were directed to prepare for that possible decision. The decision was postponed by diplomatic delays until November 29 [the Pearl Harbor Strike Force departed on November 26, when the final decision to go to war and not recall the Pearl Harbor Force [and all the other Imperial Forces that were in motion] was made. The Roosevelt administration thought the Japanese would meekly commit national suicide [because the same oil weapon could be used again and again]. Instead, they made what was an existential threat against Japan, and were surprised when they struck back against all of their enemies. Mind you, I am not fan of Imperial Japan. But we have to recognize our own screw ups in how we dealt with them, to avoid repeating them. Like in the Middle East.
I also agree with # 55 Habu. Even preceding the current regime, Israel had every reason to distrust the intentions of the United States vis-a-vis the survival of Israel. The same professional Foggy Bottom inhabitants who will be meeting with HRC in a group hug have always been devout Arabists who view the existence of Israel [and its people] as a major impediment to their dearest wishes [which include a Saudi funded retirement]. After the last two years, and indeed the last two months; they have to know that they are very much on their own because the current regime will turn on them as soon as a crisis erupts. And they are busily arranging that crisis.
If the Israeli government has half a lick of sense, their strategic forces are never on lower alert than DEFCON 2. [n.b.- Contrary to TV/movie mythology, DEFCON-5 is the lowest level of alert (Normal Readiness), and DEFCON-1 is the highest (War Imminent)]. I do not know [hopefully no one outside of the Israeli government does] what constitutes an existential strategic warning for them. But I assume that the detected and confirmed actions of the United States [rather than their words] factor strongly into them. And their definition of EMERGCONS may be somewhat more liberal than ours.
Subotai Bahadur
Pollard might be released for the most cynical of all possible reasons. If Egypt goes and the other Sunni allies lose trust in the President, then Jerusalem’s importance becomes correspondingly enhanced.
Obama has let Tariq Ramadan back into the US because he wants in with the MB, which may be the next power in Cairo. So why won’t he spring Pollard if it turns out that Israel is about the only ally left in the region? Ramadan is the same old villain; and Pollard may remain the same old traitor. But its international politics that counts. As Churchill once put it, “I would make a favorable reference to the devil if Hitler invaded Hell.”
And re my #79 above, as if on cue Jerry Brown makes the argument for continuing subsidies because that is the lesson of Tunisia and Egypt. The LA Times reports:
But maybe Brown has learned the wrong lesson. The lesson of Egypt and Tunisia is that the subsidy money eventually runs out and then everyone is up the creek without a paddle. Increasing taxes will drive out the paying base and just postpone, but not eliminate the day of reckoning.
55. Habu
re: NEVER AGAIN
Agreed.
As a thought experiment, regarding the current crisis with Egypt and the threat posed by a possible Muslim Brotherhood takeover, perhaps a simple demonstration by Israel could throw the political/diplomatic equivalent of a bucket of cold water on the heated participants.
Instead of waiting until forced to implement the real Sampson Option, with all its attendant death and destruction, perhaps Israel could fire a single missile with a non-destructive “paintball” warhead into the Aswan High Dam. Call it the Aswan Gambit.
Victor or rather LOSER
‘Have you no shame?’
http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_fZVTT4F2Y6WCMArKRlzNiM
Richard,
You forgot to mention that Patton arrived in 36 hours.
That man knew how to connect dots!
Subotai…
This will be one of those rare times I have a different ‘take.’
I’m with Robert Stinnett & Eric Nave…
——
WRT the American embargo of Japan and unintended consequences…
The FDR sanctions specifically exempted crude oil exports from America to Japan! However, our banks noted that ALL Japanese funds were to be seized and placed in escrow for the USG. FDR & Co did NOT realize that this provision made it impossible for the Japanese government to PAY for oil imports.
So, while oil exports were exempted from FDR’s sanctions the money to pay for them was NOT covered in the language. THIS is why the Japanese lost access to American crude.
Even before that, FDR’s administration started giving the Japanese a ‘metered’ amount of excess reserves. Japan’s strategic petroleum reserve was VERY closely monitored by Washington. FDR allowed Tokyo to have just enough fuel to feel confident — but not enough to truly escape an energy bind in the event of war.
Lastly, the strike on Pearl was a full week late: getting the fresh code books around was a fiasco. Hence the IJN blew everything by broadcasting in both old and new codes — because even with an extra week — the code books had not reached all points. Fools.
———-
It was NOT anticipated that the Japanese would be remotely as effective and successful as they were, especially at grabbing the oil fields of the ‘birds peak.’
http://www.tenkile.com/images/tree_kangaroos/vogelkop_dist.jpg
Washington would have gagged if anyone had projected such an easy Japanese advance.
———-
Washington ONLY wanted a Japanese outburst/ attack. Washington held the Japanese in military contempt. This is something that the modern reader just can’t comprehend.
FDR and the rest of the National Command Authority thought that Tokyo would permit a resolution to all of our political dilemmas — by attacking Pearl Harbor and uniting the Nation.
At no time did the National Command Authority calculate that the USN would suffer a terrible beat down. Wheeler and Hickam Fields were to repulse the air attack with minimal losses.
That’s why the radar was sent. That the B-17s were a FULL WEEK LATE gets little modern press. Hap Arnold was furious at their sloth. They were to buttress the radar and discover the Japanese by ‘accident.’
The harbor screen was supposed to ‘discover’ submarine threats.
It was a fiasco — as we all know.
Washington wanted to hide — at ALL cost — the reality: our reading of enemy cyphers.
Our revenge was Midway.
Wayne Allen Root wonders if it could happen in the US.
Perhaps the US could offer sanctuary to the Copts. Nah, would never happen, since they are Christians, and therefore sub-human evil criminals or something.
I wonder if the MSM will bother reporting the carnage?
Wretchard,
There is a widespread misunderstanding of the phrase “high crimes and misdemeanors”. It does not refer to the severity of the offense but rather the prevalent practice, at the time, of shielding connected individuals from prosecution.
As to the relative culpability of Nixon and Clinton, I would point to: Clinton was disbarred by the Arkansas Bar Association and The Supreme Court. His subsequent SOTU was boycotted by all nine justices.
Yes, Nixon resigned – in the interest of political comity. This was in congruence with his decision to not contest the 1960 election because of blatant voter fraud in Chicago. Clinton hung in there in the face of a conviction for perjury.
I am no Nixon fan. He was a far better man than Clinton.
Roy
Now we know why Ambassador Huntsman suddenly resigned! Hillary was going to ask him for a loan.;)
Churchill sure had his moments–his problem was not booze –but chronic amphetamine use.
In his amphetamine euphoria he agreed to Stalins take over of Eastern Europe–in Tehran– and initially agreed to to the Morgenthau Plan
which would have meant the extinction of 25 million Germans and the ultimate Soviet control of all of continental Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan
Fortunately–Antony Eden and other members of the UK cabinet talked to Lord Moran, Churchill’s doctor, and he dialed down on the amphetamines.
Tariq Ramadan is a friend of Obama, an Oxford professor and the grandson of the founder of MB–looks like he is influential
- I know nothing about him.
Israel pursues Israels perceived interest
–currently they are stealing as much land, water and US money and diplomatic cover as they can.
The European colonists did the same thing–but that was 100s of years ago–and ended with WW1/WW2
Currently US fundamental interests are not the same as the current regime in Israel
— that fact is becoming more evident to more and more Americans
– massive hasbara propaganda is not working–it is, in fact, backfiring.
Since 1918 and Wilson’s 14 points–America has firmly opposed colonial regimes
–it is what it is.
US politics should end at the waters edge
Roy: Yes, Nixon resigned – in the interest of political comity
Actually, what happened was that on August 5, 1974, the smoking gun tape came out, and even what Republican support he had left completely collapsed. Bob Dole paid him a visit and told him impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate was certain, and on August 8 he announced his resignation. So no, it wasn’t Nixon trying to salvage the system or preserve civility, it was his final recognition that the gig was up.
Good grief Vic…
You under done your self.
Ugh.
Self-parody — it’s not that attractive.
Loser, the MB was co-founded by NAZIS.
Have you no shame?
Egypt’s dark side
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypts-dark-side.html
Loser –
Clueless in Washington
http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2011/01/clueless-in-washington.php
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. ” – Edmund Burke
The Turkey must be challenged each and every time, I am not willing for Israel to experience a holocaust, losing my parents entire families was enough.
Never Again!
Teresita,
Conventional wisdom is, well conventional as defined by the NYT. I was around then. In fact I was around when Harry Truman was cast off by the Democrats. Nixon was certain to be acquitted by The Senate if the Republicans had invoked party loyalty. Say what you will about Republicans, they have always demonstrated much more dignity than the Chicago crowd.
Roy
Nixon could have burned the tapes, or lost them for ten years like the Rose law firm records. Would pretty much have ended the ordeal. Why he didn’t, is a matter for speculation.
86. blert
I read it somewhat differently. The freezing of Japanese assets on 26 July 1941 did in fact technically have provisions for granting “licenses” to release funds to purchase oil. These were the responsibility of Assistant Secretary of State Dean Acheson, who declined to issue such licenses, because he believed the policy was for a full embargo.
The point was rendered moot on 1 August 1941, with the issuance of an order by Roosevelt totally embargoing the sale of oil and aviation fuel to Japan. It was actually issued as an order banning the export of oil and aviation gasoline to anyone but Britain, the British Empire, and countries in the Western Hemisphere. But the sole effect was to cut off Japan.
I grant that there was the metering effect, but that was based on an earlier set of sanctions. There was strong public pressure to cut off everything military to Japan. Roosevelt knew that a sudden cut off was a casus belli, so he had inserted into the July 1940 “Act to Expedite the Strengthening of the National Defense” a provision that let the President … prohibit or curtail the exportation of any military equipment or munitions … or machinery, tools or materials or supplies for the manufacture, operation, or servicing thereof when he deemed it necessary in the interest of national defense. On 5 July 1940 they limited certain strategic minerals, chemicals, and aircraft engines, parts, and equipment. On 26 July 1940 they added Aviation motor fuel and lube oil, and certain classes of iron and steel scrap. On 30 September 1940 they added all types of iron and steel scrap.
My argument, by the way, is not against doing things to pressure other countries. What I object to, is pushing them on matters that they consider to be vital and ignoring their capabilities, and instead trying to judge their response by our view of what their intentions are. That guarantees that our own subjective bias’ get included in the interpretation. That does not have a good track record, and we tend to get bit in important body parts. If we are going to pressure other countries, we need to have capabilities of dealing with the reaction and limiting the damage, and not just wishful thinking.
Acheson above, would have been a prime example of this if the matter of the licenses had been tested. In his own writings, he stated that he believed that a total embargo would not be a problem, because the Japanese would be “insane” to attack our country.
I have a feeling that our government believes that the Israelis would have to be “insane” to try to fight against being surrounded and wiped out.
Subotai Bahadur
Caroline Glick is paid by the Israeli FM hasabara
–she is pumping out Liebermans PR and preaching to the choir–or the equivalent echo chamber.
The key question is
–what are American fundamental interests in this matter and is Obama implementing American fundamental interests?
Israel is irrelevant
- unless they do something stupid–in which case– they are toast
The situation in Egypt is an opportunity to further the Bush doctrine and American interests in the CENTCOM region.
Reading Victor’s posts reminds me of an old joke about an Israeli Jew who only reads Arabic newspapers. His friend catches him at it and says, “Why are you reading that propaganda trash? It’s all lies!”
He says, “But in these newspapers, the Jews are taking more land and power every day, our scientists figure everything out, our spies go everywhere and kill anyone they want and get off scot free and all the terrorists are afraid of us and we secretly control the world! I wanted to read some GOOD news for a change!”
Who engineered the healthcare debacle?
Who’s never been elected at all?
Who really wears the pants at the White House?
Everyone knows it Hillary!
And Hillary has stormy eyes
That flash when she’s criticized
But everything Hillary tries
Comes crashing down!
(Comes crashing down)
Comes crashi-ing do-own!
(Comes crashing dooooooown)
[An old Paul Shanklin parody from the Rush Limbaugh show, to the tune of Windy, by The Association.]
Loser spouts more crap – no proof
Have you no shame?
No rebuttal to MB being nazi.
Habu, et al.
Were the U. S. Military to attack Israel, they would lose every single scrap of integrity and honor that has been loaned to them (earned by them) since Desert Storm. Especially from those of us who got kicked in the teeth during Vietnam and who have raised them up ever since.
If the U. S. attacks Israel, I will no longer have a country; just a place that I will live waiting for the “Dying Sting” to nuke not only all Islamic cities, but “some” western targets deserving a strike arising from “the Mother of all treacherous acts” from the United States of America.
If Obama can direct an attack on Israel – any attack – no one in this country is free from tyranny. And the military that carries it out is anathema; they will have totally lost their way – and their honor.
@ 102 Sgian Dubh: Ditto. And, that really would be an extreme form of the “Japanese oil embargo” moment. Very extreme. There are plenty of other ways in which the Israelis could be pushed up to and over an existential brink.
Egypt flipping MB could be one of them.
Still, I conjecture that in Israeli thinking, if they are pushed to and over that edge, even then they would attempt to avoid a full Masada Plan strike on the ME. Instead, were they to use nuclear assets, they would do so surgically to disrupt command-and-control functions to buy them enough time for conventional mobilization and citizenry fighting grit to kick in.
That probably means Damascus, in practical terms.
However, even a surgical use of nukes by Israel would in fact drag absolutely everyone in the area to attack, and probably force some form of absolute extreme response. One would only hope that the blanket broadcast in the moments before that response might consist of a variation on “For the sword of the Lord and for Gideon!”
–JC
http://www.tellthechildrenthetruth.com/mbhood_en.html
Vic – “Israel is irrelevant”
For a country that is irrelevant, you certainly spend alot of your time demonizing them. Well you have your self-appointed task to do I suppose. Probably recieve raves over at Prison Planet.
If CNN and ABC were the only sources, one would think that the Muslim Brotherhood was an off shoot of the Boy Scouts of America, that they spend their days helping old Egyptian mummies across the street.
Today those “Boy Scout” wannabes acted in a way that would surprised its network defenders.
Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.
#73 RWR
Re: Samson
Obviously, I have failed to make myself clear. There are a number of plans in place should Israel have to go nuclear. Each presumes a set of possibilities and potentialities which will determine target arrays using specific assets. None are known as Samson. If Samson did exist, it contemplated circumstances faced 40-50 years ago. With respect, we’ve come a long way since.
Allow me to lay down a marker: a review of the comments on this site since the Egyptian “troubles” will show that I was the first person to say, unequivocally, that the show was being controlled by the Egyptian Army. The Atlanta Journal Constitution is reporting that the show is under Army control. Just sayin’.
Best
102. Sgian Dubh
Habu, et al.
Were the U. S. Military to attack Israel, they would lose every single scrap of integrity and honor that has been loaned to them (earned by them) since Desert Storm. Especially from those of us who got kicked in the teeth during Vietnam and who have raised them up ever since.
Of course, that would suit Obama and the leftists running the show right now just fine. Everything they’re doing, every policy, has as an essential component the degradation, demoralization and eventual deconstruction of our military and its unique culture. From suicidal strategy and tactics in Afghanistan, to DADT repeal and mandatory “sensitivity training”, to the recent “study report” recommending women in combat, etc., etc., ad nauseum, all of it is intended to “break” our military.
If the U. S. attacks Israel, I will no longer have a country; just a place that I will live waiting for the “Dying Sting”…
I prefer a different perspective. You would still have a country. It’s just that it’s been taken over by the enemy within, and will have to fought for to take it back. There’s no guarantee that can be done, naturally, but the attempt must be made.
63. allen, 66. 73. 102. etc
All of you just plain wrong about this Israel nuking everyone theory.
First, you don’t understand Jews. Jews are (for better or worse) the most merciful people on the planet. On top of this, the IDF is extremely careful with humanitarian law. These guys call enemy civilians on the phone to warn them before an op during a war! IDF soldiers are taught to disobey unlawful orders and orders to target civilians. This is quite possibly the most moral and restrained army in the world (again for better or worse).
If G-d forbid there was an impossible military situation Israel might deploy against the actual invading armies. Maybe.
To imagine that a Jewish IDF officer would issue or obey an order to deploy strategic weapons on civilian targets in Russia, Europe, etc. is incredibly stupid. Besides, the officer probably has cousins in Moscow or Paris – and certainly in NYC.
Second, it’s technically impossible. Israel’s strategic weapons and missile forces were developed to deter Syria and Egypt. Their ballistic missiles can’t even reach Iran. There was no need to do so when they were developed as the key threats were next door. I do hope they are developing a new generation of longer ranged launch systems, but there is no indication this has happened.
They only way the can hit Iran (or other targets at distance) is with aircraft or sub launched cruise missiles. They only have three diesel electric subs, which carry very few missiles and are limited in range and time on station. If the situation was actually dire enough to consider the mythical “Samson/Masada” Israel would not have enough aircraft left to deploy more than a handful of tactical weapons to nearby targets. Available planes and fuel would be tasked to CAS to cover retreating forces. The SLCM would have been used up on Iran’s nuclear facilities long before your imaginary zero hour.
You gentlemen are totally wrong.
#67 Vic the Turk
“Israel has become a liability rather than an asset for the US”
Victor, look in the mirror. Turkey has become an Islamist pit of slobbering anti-Semites who help Iran further a “peaceful” nuclear program. They wont even allow NATO radars on their sacred soil because they might track Iranian missiles. Should we talk about the ongoing genocide against the Kurds?
Definitely not the “American way” there in Turkey. Sweet of you to propose that we become isolationists while your country makes deals with Iran and Hamas and movies about how evil America and Jews are.
To All of Good Will,
Re: “Loser”/”Hermann”/”Vic” & Terriersita
It is a joy to be associated with a host of others who see through these two enemies.
To those deserving…
The Hope
The Reality
“Eisenhower sent the Airborne divisions refitting after Market-Garden to take Bastogne and Saint-Vith. The 101st Airborne, whose defense of Bastogne would become legendary, arrived by truck just hours before the town was cut off and surrounded, supported by units of the 10th armored.”
Many of the reinforcements arrived on foot:
http://threeo.ca/outstandingpmsgengeorgespattonc758.php
“Patton was given the order to punch through the German forces surrounding Bastogne by General Dwight D. Eisenhower on December 23rd. Patton’s 3rd Army was engaged in the south near Saarbrucken over 100 miles from Bastogne. By December 26th, elements of the 3rd had succeeded in breaking off their engagement, turning 90 degrees to the north and punching through the encircling German forces. The breaking off the engagement was the first demonstration of Patton’s leadership capabilities, marching his forces over 100 miles, without rest, with all the baggage that a well equipped army must carry, in the dead of a brutal winter was the next.”
My father-in-law was among these. He suffered a concussion his first day there, but was sent back into line.
#109 Jay
I am a Jew.
#109 Jay
How about you?
109. Jay
63. allen, 66. 73. 102. etc All of you just plain wrong about this Israel nuking everyone theory. First, you don’t understand Jews. Jews are (for better or worse) the most merciful people on the planet…
Yes, but reading such fantasies of barely-concealed glee are a very interesting CAT scan of the psychology of certain Belmont Clubbers and Elephant Barflies. And to see excerpts of their scriptures posted to back them up is to witness someone literally taking the name of G-d in vain contrary to the Law given to Moses.
#115 Teresita said…
Elephant Barflies
“Yawn” – drumming up business are we?
#115 Terriersita said…
Elephant Barflies
Why, dear girl, that is very disrespectful of Wretchard’s published policy of non-solicitation. Were he to be informed that the site in question was recently blacklisted by blogger for neo-Nazi content, he might cut you off. We can hope.
One of the compliments of which I am proudest was from a colleague who is a former IDF infantry officer.
He said I was “an honorary Jew.”
As to the original topic, it goes back to our arguments that beginning with Obama’s inauguration – is he consciously destructive of America or just massively incompetent?
Revolutions tend to spin out of control. The American Revolution came close but our people held it together. The French, the Russians, the Iranians all lost it.
112. Louie723
Your link to “Patton” tells a false tale. Plenty of errors.
XLVII = 47th Panzer Corps
Mission critical lead element = 26 VG Infantry Division — NOT panzers.
110 Regiment HQ was DESTROYED/CAPTURED in Clervaux
” the resort town of Clervaux was the 110th’s command post, Headquarters Company, Supply Company, some of Cannon Company and Companies D and B of the 103rd Medical Battalion”
http://tinyurl.com/4wjtr3m
Col. Fuller was liberated by the Russian Army in the Spring of ’45.
Contrary to assumption, the German tanks vectored AWAY from Bastogne and went straight off to the Meuse. The 2nd Panzer ALMOST bagged BG Gavin! He drove right across their advance — and behind them — on the way to V Corps.
“Heinrich von Lüttwitz’s entire XLVII Panzer Corps, with 27,000 infantrymen and 216 tanks, assault guns or tank destroyers, which intended to smash through the 110th’s positions in one day, seize the Clerf River bridges intact and drive on to reach the Meuse two or three days later.
Bastogne only became a German priority after the campaign was off the rails. Since Hitler was personally calling the shots most of the German thrusts and priorities made no sense.
File under: “If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride.” I sure wish our economy was in no way dependent on any form of energy originating in the Middle East. We all know about the oil, and the huge reserves of natural gas. But apparently, there are large deposits of uranium ore in Syria, and strangely enough it seems Russia mining interests are looking into extracting it. I keep coming back to the idea that North America should unashamedly announce that we are going to become energy independent from the entire world, that the US & Canada will provide our own oil, natural gas, uranium (think about Cigar Lake in Canada), Thorium and coal (think about largest coal deposits in the world, the Powder River basin in WY and MT). We need to drill off the north coast of Alaska, the coast of California, the entire Gulf of Mexico (not just the west side), and east coast off Virginia. Also get going on the Bakken oil shale and the Canadian Tar Sands.
Meanwhile China has announced the production of the first Chinese-built Molten-Salt-Thorium-Reactor (invented in the USA at Oak Ridge National Labs), while our Nuclear Regulatory Commission hasn’t issued approval for a new reactor type since the late 1970′s. We are going to pay for this one way or another.
No productive development in Energy Independence will happen with Barky in the WH, we should have started developing these resources a decade ago. We may all live to regret that we didn’t. If events in Egypt don’t provoke the crisis I envision ($12/gallon gas), some other upheaval in the ME will.
bell curve…
So China wants to play with a design that both Russia and America gave up on? Terrific.
The combination of radioactivity and molten salts is a materials nightmare. What looks terrific on paper never worked out. Both Russia and the US found that their reactors were down for repairs and corrections to a degree never seen in other designs.
Radioactivity promotes the halogen element in the molten salt to a ‘hot-atom’ state. In such a state it is able to perform amazing destruction upon all engineered materials.
( Super-energized Fluorine or Chlorine is the natural consequence of using molten salts, so you can’t get away from it. )
Essentially every material known to man was put to the test. None survived.
“…or is this a brainstorming session to answer the basic question of WTF — “Win the Future”?”
Thanks, Richard. That’s the best laugh I’ve had all week.
114. allen
#109 Jay
How about you?
Reread 109 and deduce. I did not assert anyone is or isn’t a Jew, just that many people don’t understand Jews. Many (most?) Jews don’t understand and appreciate themselves. Mark Twain came close.
As an aside it would be interesting to survey the religious makeup of the commenters here. I suspect Catholics and Jews are overrepresented.
…sorry…all out of deductive facilities…If you cannot say, it doesn’t really matter. There is no right or wrong answer in any case; Olam Ha Ba beckons to all.
Best
Guess Mr. Obama finds out ‘Presidenting is hard work.’
There is no compelling reason to invest in thorium reactors nor in the thorium fuel cycle.
There is plenty of uranium waiting to be mined – it is most common than lead in the earth’s crust. The oceans have huge quantities awaiting clever extraction methods – the Japanese have one that involves plastic sheets that float in seawater and are retrieved yearly for uranium removal and returned.
Yes, molten salt reactors are interesting but like the liquid plutonium reactors the USAEC experimented with int he 1950s, material problems make them a technical and economic dead end.
109. Jay
You are, of course, perfectly free to take this with a Yucca Mountain sized grain of salt; and I will not be offended at all. 4 1/2 years ago, I wrote a project trying to define the parameters of just such a Masada Plan strike based on what would be the most efficient use of the forces available to the State of Israel. [Yes, I amuse myself in strange ways. I write what my muse tells me to.] It was done without access to any classified materials, and done totally open source. There were a number of Cases [designated Aleph - He] based on the strategic situation Israel was in. They ranged from removing any future threat to Israel by the Ummah and deterring the inevitable desire by the major powers to retaliate to what has been referred to as the “Samson Option”, wherein it was decided that if Israel goes down, so does the rest of the world as best they can arrange it.
Israel has done an amazing job of concealing the size of its nuclear arsenal. Basically, while there are data points from the first Israeli device to 1997; there really is no open source data out there beyond that. There is information of expanded production of fissile materials, and possibly a new and more efficient way of purifying them; but not details beyond that. One has to assume that since 1997, they have not been restricting themselves to making glow in the dark watch faces. I had to do an admittedly crude mini-max approximation from the baseline. The lowest figure turned out to be a multiple of what would be needed. The upper was an order of magnitude larger.
Means of delivery are somewhat more public. There is a lot of open source data out there, and a lot of that is based on public domain satellite photo analysis. While there is uncertainty about the rate of production of each model, the fact of deployment above certain numbers is confirmable. And once again, it turned out to be a multiple of what would be needed.
For the record, they do not use silos like we do. They have adopted the same technical solution as the Chinese, which also fits their limited resources. They use Transporter-Erector-Launchers kept in reinforced tunnels in the mountains. Drive out, erect, and launch. Whether there are reloads inside the tunnels is not known.
The missile force is largely made up of the Jericho-family. The Jericho-I is short range. The Jericho-II is highly underestimated by the press. Public information about tests has been based on tests where the range has deliberately been restricted. Looking at known parameters about engine thrust, weights of payloads, etc. over a series of launches, the range is closer to 4000 km. with a warhead sized payload. There is a Jericho-III that has entered service since I did the study. I rather doubt that it is less capable than its predecessors.
The Israeli space launcher is the Shavit which is a Jericho-II with an added third stage. Israel very carefully published the payload weight, apogee, and perigee of its Ofeq-1 satellite launched in 1988. If you can put a satellite into a selected orbit with those parameters, you have an ICBM. And the major powers [and in those days I believe that they were aiming the information at the Soviets] knew it. The production rate is …. obscure, probably deliberately so.
The submarine launched cruise missile with the longest range [they have at least two others; one the American Harpoon, another of local design that was also purchased by our Navy] is the POPEYE TURBO. In witnessed tests off of Sri Lanka in May of 2000, the extended range version can go 1500 km. with a warhead sized payload. There were 3 DOLPHIN-class submarines to carry them [estimated loadout 4 each]. On 24 August 2006, Israel bought two more from Germany.
I stipulate that I am not a nice person. I grew up during the Cold War reading the works of Herman Kahn. And other Rand Corp. studies. I designed a 3 wave strike package, with a number of options, that I believe would do the job. It was sent out to a number of people at different times. At least one of which occasionally frequents here. I know that it was forwarded to some people who actually have some involvement in the field, and compliments were received in return. And agreement with my stipulation.
While I am a retired Peace Officer, I have always been involved with the military. My original career goal would have started at Annapolis, but I have certain physical problems which precluded the armed forces. I had for a number of years a sideline as a writer for professional defense journals, and I have been told by operational personnel who read my work that some of my ideas were adopted with some success.
One project I worked on with a writer friend involved a professional war-gamer who worked for the DoD. After we finished that project, and after he had read another of my projects written for a bet [I always have been a wordy bugger with strange interests] he stated that I have an uncanny knack for putting myself into the mindset of a foreign staff officer.
If I could come up with this, open source; I have great faith that professional Israeli planners with access to the real data could and have done a far better job of it. In fact, I would be comforted if I were to find out that they had done so. Whether the Israeli NCA has the political will to follow such a plan is a matter beyond determination. I work with capabilities, and not intentions.
This is the internet, where as the saying goes “No one knows if you are a dog”. Anyone can say anything. And no one is required to believe them, if they do not find it credible. So with absolutely no ill will, I will understand if you think that these concepts are fantasy; and that I myself am not deserving of credence on the matter.
My point is, from what I myself have seen and written in another venue; is it my considered belief that a) Israel is in fact capable of wreaking a level of havoc on its enemies far beyond what is currently believed. In fact, their capabilities are such that in this multi-polar strategic world they should be considered and dealt with as a major strategic player. b) policies that ignore that, or depend on a subjective determination of “intent” to ignore capabilities will repeat a tragic mistake that our country [and indeed other countries] have made in the past, to our detriment., c) In the event that our NCA and Political Class are making the appalling decision that the State of Israel is the strategic enemy as opposed to either the Ummah or other hostile major powers; pushing them into a corner and poking them with sharp sticks may not have as benign a result as they believe. The most dangerous enemy is one who believes that he has no hope of survival and can concentrate his thoughts on doing as much damage as possible before dying., and d) the Ummah is blinded by both culture and ideology from realizing any of the above, and they will never refrain from the poking. And if we consistently act on their behalf, we will be rightly lumped in with them.
Your, and other BC-er’s mileage may well vary, which I understand and accept.
Subotai Bahadur
Wretchtard’s comment about Hillary doing her impression of an xtranormal.com movie inspired me to make one from some of the transcript. I think mine has more emotional content.
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8326315
Here is a quote from a China news agency:
“Yesterday, as the Chinese Academy of Sciences started the first one of the strategic leader in science and technology projects, “the future of advanced nuclear fission energy – nuclear energy, thorium-based molten salt reactor system” project was officially launched. The scientific goal is to use 20 years or so, developed a new generation of nuclear energy systems, all the technical level reached in the trial and have all intellectual property rights.”
So it looks like a research program into Thorium nuclear energy, not a commercial reactor right off the bat. But the fact remains they (China) are forging ahead with plans to bring 100GW of Nuclear Power (presumably some of it from Thorium) online by mid-century. We need to be headed in the same direction. I’ve read that some designs for Thorium reactors will eliminate the problem of high level nuclear wastes, as Thorium reactors can consume the waste from other types of reactors as fuel, that is one reason I have been promoting them for the USA.
Subotai Bahadur;
What is the largest yield device the Israelis can deliver? One would certainly expect them to have mastered thermonuclear weaponry by now.
I believe the largest weaponized device for the US was a 25 MT device that in its air-delivered form (B-52) weighed about 10,000 lb. It was also fitted to the Titan II missile. Of course, the Russians demonstrated an airdropped 50 MT (Tsar Bomba) but I don’t think it entered service.
I don’t think the Israelis have the carriage for 25 MT at the range for Teheran. Certainly they don’t really need that – several 5 MT devices can do the same job.
BTW, I still have my first edition of “On Thermonuclear War.”
# 130. Whitehall
That is one of the things that the Israelis are very good at keeping quiet. And likely they want to maintain a degree of strategic uncertainty. One of the obvious assumptions I had to make was that they could easily achieve 25KT in the size packages they could deploy. After all, if a 1st year college physics student using the extent literature can devise a 20KT gun device that can fit into a minivan sized package; I rather think that the Israelis have mastered implosion devices. Which, of course has implications for thermonuclear devices; but implications are not evidence.
25KT works for all targets I listed, as the net effects I intended are not yield dependent. If there are higher yields deployed, if not necessarily desirable, they are not counterproductive. One is reminded of the axiom, “It is not the size, it is how you use it.”.
Here is what I said at the time:
Since this is my 4th post on this thread, I will have to withdraw from the thread.
Subotai Bahadur
W #56 says “The other wrinkle is that if Egypt closes the Suez, Israel’s subs, now based in the Med, would have no way to reach their war stations in the Arabian sea”
I would be VERY discouraged if Israel was foolish enough to put all of its eggs in one basket (ie. The Med). Anyone who was banking on that could be extremely (and radioactively) surprised.
subotai, w meant that to be a loose rule of thumb, i think.
119. blert – “Your link to Patton tells a false tale. Plenty of errors.”
There may well be errors in there. I have not studied the battle extensively, nor do I know many of the units involved.
What I do know is that my father-in-law, who passed 20 years ago, had in his possession general orders from Patton thanking his unit for marching 100 miles in three days in support of those engaged in the Ardennes, under extreme winter conditions. With full field pack, rifle, ammo and helmet this was no small task. I have seen it, though it was years ago and I cannot quote it directly.
So Hillary is calling just about every single US ambassador to an unprecedented gathering?
Does anyone really believe that a single thoroughbred can be assembled from 260 horse’s hind-ends?
“Does anyone really believe that a single thoroughbred can be assembled from 260 horse’s hind-ends?”
Why sure. Hillary will say just the right words and …Presto…a full-fledged race horse will take shape. “Problem sol-ved” (Inspector Clouseau)
127. Subotai Bahadur
Do you have your report available? I would love to read it.
jinva2day
at yahoo
My own source re delivery systems was local but their info was only a few years old. From what they said the Jericho II would not reliably reach all the needed targets in Iran, and while the JIII probably could, numbers are very limited. So based on this it is likely that if the situation was bad enough to contemplate an expanded target list, the longer range assets would have been used up on Iran.
The new Dolphin class subs have not been delivered, so there are only 3 in service.
My speculation on the number of warheads available is based on FAS, which again is dated, but I don’t see any new cooling systems at Dimona…
As to the intentions angle, my comment about the hypothetical IDF officer with cousins in Moscow, Paris, or NYC was not to be cute. If, G-d forbid, Israel was attacked and weakened, then support (financial, political, and demographic) from Jews outside Israel would be a key asset. The Israelis know this. If, G-d forbid, the current state of Israel ceases to exist for any reason, Jews around the world would be able to recreate a Jewish state there. We have done it before.