Victor Davis Hanson tries to make sense of why California’s left, after having ruined the state, is still waiting around for a handout. Why can’t they learn and mend their ways? He likens the former Golden State to the entitlement addicted pressure groups of Greece who cannot believe the party is over because it has always been going full blast for as long as it can remember. But it can’t be over. The party must continue, but it’s really a Rage Party, Hanson argues; as in Rage Against Reality.
the Greeks are furious at “them.” Furious in the sense that everyone must be blamed except themselves. So they protest and demonstrate that they do not wish to stop borrowing money to sustain a lifestyle that they have not earned—but do not wish to cut ties either with their EU beneficiaries and go it alone as in the 1970s. So they rage against reality.
AdvertisementThe same is true of California. Our elites liked the idea of stopping new gas and oil extraction, shutting down the nuclear power industry, freezing state east-west freeways, strangling the mining and timber industries, cutting off water to agriculture in the Central Valley, diverting revenues from fixing roads and bridges to redistributive entitlements, and praising the new multicultural state that would welcome in half the nation’s 11-15 million illegal aliens. Better yet, the red-state-minded “they” (the nasty upper one-percent who stole from the rest of us due to their grasping but superfluous businesses) began to leave at the rate of 3,000 a week, ensuring the state a Senator Barbara Boxer into her nineties.
Yes, we are proud that we have changed the attitude, lifestyle, and demography of the state, made it “green,”and have the highest paid public employees and the most generous welfare system—and do not have to soil our hands with nasty things like farming, oil production, or nuclear power. And now we are broke. Our infrastructure is crumbling and an embarrassment. My environs is known as “Zimbabwe” or “Appalachia” for its new third-world look that followed from about the highest unemployment and lowest per capita income in the nation. Again, thanks to the deep South, our schools are not quite last in reading and math. So of course, like the Greeks, we are mad at somebody other than ourselves. Californians are desperate for a “them” fix. But who is them? “Them” either left, is leaving, or has been shut down.
Dr. Hanson’s observations about the Left’s unreasonable expectations are probably true. But what does he hope to achieve by stating them? Does he hope that against all odds the Left will come to their senses? Perhaps, because that’s the logical thing to do. But history suggests that logic doesn’t always prevail. Historically doomed societies never come to their senses. That’s why they were doomed. Their feedback loop was permanently disconnected; not simply unplugged but bricked over.
The Tea Party/Republican landslide in the House this year won’t help with passing too many bills, because the Dems still have the Senate and White House.
But, they can NOT pass bills. Such as not passing any sort of rescue package for California, New York or Illinois. If that’s the only thing they don’t do, it will be the best thing on their resume this term.
habits and egos are dangerous things, salvation is so easy but changing ourselves is so hard.the addiction analogy is a good one.
if only there was a new world to go to.
if only there was a new world to go to.
Sadly, I think that would only delay the inevitable.
Mark Twain said “Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Wretchard identifies the basic problem with conservative politics, which is that it involves complaining about liberalism/socialism/whatever you want to call it, but not doing anything effective to counteract it.
VDH is very astute, but like every other mainstream conservative believes that if we point out the flaws of the system it can and will be reformed. The first incorrect assumption here is that there are actually any flaws- I’m pretty sure the system is working exactly as it is supposed to, including the leave granted for ineffective opposition of Dr. Hanson’s sort.
Take the deeply hated Laffer Theory. Lower taxes to increase revenues! That’s idiotic! Conservatives patiently explain that yes, lower rates many times will lead to higher revenues. And yet the assumption is that the purpose of the tax system is to yield as much revenue as possible, and the function of the private economy is to pay as much as it possibly can to the government. Liberals would actually prefer to get less yield from higher rates, as higher rates are a form of control on people; but they win either way. When did a conservative- other than some crank nobody listens to- say the appropriate size of government needs to be defined first, then revenues need to be collected to fund those functions, and no more? Never, probably.
My father used to be a programmer. One evening he came home and in a thoughtful mood, said sometimes everything looks upside down, and then you realize you’re standing on the ceiling. I didn’t ask him about it- it was obviously some technical thing I wouldn’t understand. And yet for years conservatives have been standing on the ceiling, cursing the upside-downness of it all.
Liberals control society so completely that conservatives can never do anything except tinker at the margins, or delay some desired policy for a few years. Until we figure out some way to really game the system, our jeremiads will only echo in the wind.
I live in Kalefornea.
There has been no Change.
Thus, there can be no Hope…
Both Greece and Kalefornea will fail. The difference is that socialism in Kalefornea will die quickly and we can get about rebuilding things.
The nicest bit of schadenfreude is that Governor Moonbeam is THE GOVERNOR MOONBEAM that started us on the slippery slope of socialism. He will sink with the ship’s crew.
But, the ship will not sink. Just the officers, some of the crew, and the freeloaders in steerage.
There will be a great opportunity for predation.
And, Thrasymachus, I will eat…
The analogy with Greece fails, in that Calif is a very wealthy state – in terms of resources, both natural and human. What it lacks, is the will to say to invaders ‘enough’. The surrounding states can invite the human capital to emigrate, they will still be US citizens. This wail not be an interstate commerce issue.
If the surrounding states require ID to enter them, the states can keep out the invaders that neither the Feds nor Californians seem willing to do.
That, in turn, may wake the good people of California wake up.
Great commentary there Wretchard. I, too, wondered about the point of VDH’s article, because we all wonder and scratch our heads about the left. It is a handy summary of some of the obvious pathologies found on the left, but it begs the question: How can they be so blind? What makes them tick? Why are they so, as I say, “functionally insane”?
That is the question I am trying to answer for myself. I don’t know if I ever will find it.
“Hell in the end isn’t where God puts you, but where you want to go.”
So true. The utopian dream is a godless fantasy, but in the minds of fellow travelers it a real destination. Of course, every attempt to create utopia leads ruin and death. I suspect that hell is INEVITABLE result of those who try to make heaven without God.
4. Thrasymachus
Yet there are red states.
One scenario is that the Obama administration will try to use the executive branch to force a bail out of California, Illinois, and etc, by fiat and against the wishes of the legislative branch. In that case the Senate my not convict but the House would impeach??????
RE Greece, California, et al: Is this not like a grief reaction? Grief following the loss of an enormous myth or profound belief system? First denial, now anger, next …? Seems like CA is in denial, Greece anger.
And: are we non-Californians/-Illini/-New Yorkers not the Germans on this side of the Atlantic? What will we do? Or not do?
“Follow the money.”
And keep what you rightfully have coming to you, to do as you see fit.
F47
I think the analogy is fine. There are differences, of course. Drawing comparisons between two things doesn’t require a mirror image, it simply requires similarities.
California is potentially a wealthy state in natural resources. But because it can’t use them, they are effectively worthless.
It has human resources, but those resources are increasingly being driven out to other places. Greece has little in the way of human resources, and California is loosing, and will continue to loose it’s human resources. The current political climate will ensure that California will become poorer then it currently is.
The biggest difference, as pointed out by VDH, is that Greece’s wealth was built on borrowed wealth. California created incredible amounts of wealth, but because of similar attitudes about the role of government, the result is effectively the same.
Both Greece and California are screwed. What happens as a result will probably differ, but who knows how these things will fall out.
To All…
Kalefornea will come out fine in the end. Do NOT help us. We cr@pped the bed, we will clean it and make it up again.
Kalefornea has a history of Reagans.
Greece has a history of Carthage and Sulla.
I think many are missing the effects of any bailout, even if it were attempted.
No matter how much money is pumped in, the failed states will still fail, because nothing will change. They are financial black holes.
We can drag down the rest of the country into ruin by trying to bail out places like California, but we cannot save them. No possible way for that to happen, no matter how much money is pumped in.
RE Greece, California, et al: Is this not like a grief reaction? Grief following the loss of an enormous myth or profound belief system?
There’s a certain Communist Party, whose identity need not be mentioned, whose expatriate leadership is in danger of dying of old age. Talks are under way to get them to lay down their arms. In return there’s talk of offering them some impotent but prestigious sounding cabinet position. The ostensible reason for doing this is to give them some ‘token victory’.
In that way the geriatric leadership can turn their rheumy eyes to their followers and say “we have won our demand! We’ll show the government how magnanimous we are by accepting these offices, even though they should have given us better, and return in triumph from exile’.
Surrender is always an easier sell if you let the losers parade their colors.
In some ways is an astute strategy because its architects understand that the Left can never, ever admit it was wrong. In the end they have to keep even the illusion of their superiority because that self-righteousness is what being the Vanguard of History is all about. They are good at lying to themselves, so why not let them?
But in other ways that strategy only lays the groundwork for the Left’s eventual resurgence. Go along with their myth and eventually they’ll quote the myth against you. But since forcing them to eat crow is so expensive, so destructive and ultimately so hard, that there’s a real temptation to offer them a uniform of Napoleon from the costumer’s and go along with the farce.
The plague never dies. It hides in old books and in dusty cupboards. The equivalent of the Left will be with humanity until the end. But in the meantime, we can buy a period grace with these calming words. “Oh yes, socialism really was the best solution. Too bad we had to settle for less. Maybe next time, my emperor. Now if you will just step this way to Elba, you will find it isn’t St. Helena.”
Thrasymachus
“VDH is very astute, but like every other mainstream conservative believes that if we point out the flaws of the system it can and will be reformed. The first incorrect assumption here is that there are actually any flaws- I’m pretty sure the system is working exactly as it is supposed to, including the leave granted for ineffective opposition of Dr. Hanson’s sort.”
Let’s not go down the “Its all part of some DIABOLICAL PLOT!” road. There are too many people pulling in too many directions for this to be a coordinated, organized conspiracy. And The First Amendment is still a robust concept, Pajamas Media doesn’t require anyone’s leave to publish whatever it wants.
As for the ineffectiveness of the opposition, that is a real quandary. Don’t look to me though, I’m no more effective then VDH. I’m still stuck on the identifying the problem.
I didn’t think Hanson wrote the article for the benefit of California. It was written, I think, for the rest of us who don’t live there but will be expected to provide the bailout. CA has a lot of congressional representation. It used to be true that “so goes California so goes the rest of the country” and I imagine we’ll be hearing some interesting variations on that in the coming months, that CA is too big to fail and we’ll all pay a big price if we don’t help the state out, blah blah. It will kind of be like why the Chinese supposedly prop the North Koreans up, because they don’t want to deal with massive amounts of refugees and all the other catastrophes if North Korea completely blows up. So he’s warning us. Those of us who don’t live in CA are about to become the “them” he’s talking about.
Smashmaster, we might not quite entirely identify the problem, but when the problem becomes adequately manifest in misery someone surely WILL be implicated. I wouldn’t want to be that someone.
That’s why I respectfully disagree with Wretchard’s solution above. We shouldn’t let the perpetrators off the hook, but rather firmly impale them upon it.
Cali, like GMC is too big to fail, just now. Money will be sent to pay the state salaries and pensions, “unregistered democrats” will continue to tax the system. Should there come the inevitable natural disaster anytime soon, disaster relief will flow there to be appropriated for the more critical immediate needs of the socialist agenda.
Getting a Man of the Left to surrender his beliefs may prove harder than getting the Japanese defenders on Okinawa to come out of their caves and sing the Marine Corps Hymn. Not long ago some commenters dropped by this site to argue that feminism had degenerated because it had been infiltrated by the CIA and that Wikileaks would soon prove that the WTC had been rigged for demolition. You could argue with them, but with what prospects is the question.
Professor Hanson ruefully remarked in his article that:
The thing to remember is that VDH isn’t engaging in hyperbole or parody. Some people really do believe that if you push the ATM buttons hard enough, the money will actually spew out.
I think what Hanson hopes to achieve by restating the left’s “unreasonable expectations” is to stimulate action on the part of agnostics, who are beginning to recognize that there is an alternative to leftism. I have participated in several Tea Party events and have felt the energy of people who thought they were powerless. Clearly the November elections brought an even more important lesson: now it is time to reinforce that message and Hanson is doing his part. Read the comments following VDH’s column and you’ll remark the sense of discovery from Hanson’s words among his readers: these are folks who need intellectual structure for the anger and frustration they feel. I for one am glad Hanson does this, along with Wretchard and many others who bring the historical and philosophical perspective we all need to shape our frustration into a meaningful weapon. F
I am now retired and our house is paid for. We are happy in our neighborhood, and have no intention of moving out of California. California politics are dominated by Los Angeles and San Francisco. The legislature is owned by the democrats. The only way for things to change is for the state to hit bottom, and go bankrupt. I hope the state doesn’t get bailed out! Then maybe when there is no other way out, we can affect the changes we need and recover. Until then, California is on the skids.
When the money runs out, when the tractors and trains and trucks have no more fossil fuel for the production and dissemination of food, when the death panels decree your life isn’t ‘worth’ saving no matter the cost or your age or chance of recovery, then, sure, there will be a whole lot of disillusioned utopians who will end up sorely pissed.
But so what? They will have to take it up with those who promised them so much more than they could ever deliver. I imagine it will be something akin to the disappointment that the Italians discovered upon realizing Mussolini wasn’t all he was cracked up to be. I imagine, in the end, such overweaning disillusionment will likely lead to a similar outcome, even here. Some leaders simply deserve to be hung feet first from the nearest available lampposts.
In such circumstance people will be vengeful, cruel, and will be in no mood to be deterred. To intervene and suggest the guilty aren’t deserving of such rude justice merely risks making yourself or the next available innocent a target.
Governor Moonbeam may see himself, as Obama did, as a suave savior, ready to relive the role of Gregory Peck as Captain Hornblower loading his ship with provisions extracted from ignorant but soon to be enlightened peasants. My prediction is that within a year he may end up like the ranting El Supremo.
BTW, regarding “magical thinking” reports are that Syrian pilots really did believe that if they squeezed the trigger harder the bullets would fly faster. Just another link between Socialism and Islamism.
I sense that my understanding is becoming clearer as I read Wretchard’s posts, the elicited comments, and other web logs. I share what I better understand with friends, who may share with their other friends. I was converted my freshman year at college, 45+ years ago, by a friend’s comment about the liberal philosophy, “Lollipops for Everyone”.
Yesterday I ran across an older interview with Theodore Dalrymple:
“Dalrymple: Political correctness is communist propaganda writ small. In my study of communist societies, I came to the conclusion that the purpose of communist propaganda was not to persuade or convince, nor to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is to co-operate with evil, and in some small way to become evil oneself. One’s standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control. I think if you examine political correctness, it has the same effect and is intended to.”
http://tinyurl.com/2ampmdh
We just have to point out the lies of the left, I am thankful for VDH,Wretchard, and others who do so so eloquently.
onesimus
“When did a conservative- other than some crank nobody listens to- say the appropriate size of government needs to be defined first, then revenues need to be collected to fund those functions, and no more? Never, probably.”
But this is exactly how Leftists think…
They define the need for government extremely high, higher than they can fund it, but it IS government FIRST.
To frame the matter correctly fundamental metrics must be set forth. With Leftists, the battle starts even there.
Leftist absolutely DO NOT subscribe to the notion that government performs poorly. Instead, the collective is ALWAYS held above performance measurement — because it’s an expression of their collective good will.
That the path to Hell is paved with good intentions is a nostrum unknown to Leftists.
———–
It is ALSO the case that maximizing efficient government impact should NOT be any kind of operant goal. This nation was not founded upon the nostrum that maximum GDP per capita was any kind of goal at all.
Rather, this polity was founded upon the notion that government power must be limited in every way possible consistent with its task of providing and defending the public liberty.
Economic optimization is entirely the wrong metric for a harmonious society. We’re not robots.
If you seek wartime output in peacetime then Red China is your society, for that is their organizing arrangement.
BTW, once Red China has stolen the last bit of Western method she will hit the wall: she has NO internal system of rewarding the inventive or cultural arts. Normally overlooked/taken for granted the only path to economic gain is improved technique and materials. This is so costly and problematic that the West, especially America, provides a monopoly shield for a set term.
China and India massively cheat against this creative compensation. They crank out generic medicine in grand style, free riding on Western research. This makes them hopelessly dependent upon the West. It also explains why American medicine is so expensive. We are carrying most of the planet on our back as free riders in this area.
It puzzles many a foreigner as to why American medicine is so much more costly than even Canada — yet Canada free rides as well. Since the essence of modern medicine is our pharmacy this is no small thing. The expense growth in said pills is phenomenal.
——
Off Topic:
First step in containing cost growth in medicine: ban TV commercials for patented drugs. Such outlays equal or exceed research outlays. They also represent zero-sum expenditures against other ‘ethical’ drug manufacturers. The CEOs of Big Pharma all agreed they’d just as soon do without, BUT, not until the other guy is stopped also. c.f. Game Theory.
It is of note that something as simple as that never put pen to paper for Obamacare.
——-
Gray Davis blew up California during the Dot Com boom. He was Jerry Brown’s right-hand man 1975-1981. Since Jerry kept running for President, Davis was effective governor on many occasions. Of note, and not generally admitted by the Sacramento Bee ( Leftard fishwrap ) Davis is the politician that blew out the pensions for California.
When Politicized Labor asked for mania tempo rates of pension growth of 6% — Gray came back with 8%. This infuriated the Political Bosses — because they were shown to be not asking too much – just too little. The idea that 8% compound growth is mathematically absurd for a pool as large as CalPers never caused a stir. Why? Because, THIS TIME EVERYTHINGS DIFFERENT!
Shortly after that the markets blew up. Obviously, no pension was ever adjusted for the new trend.
——
The other California crisis is one that is inflicted upon her by the abdication of Federal responsibilities WRT illegal immigrants.
They are blowing out the prisons, medical care, and the need to staff so many extra LEOs at every level. Whether Russian or Mexican, they are profoundly overweighted in our law enforcement budget. We’ve got the Russian Mafia running wild. We’ve got multiple Mexican gangs running loose. We’ve got a race war whereby Mexicans are driving out Mulattos via kinetic lead poisoning.
Not too surprisingly, these illegals concentrate into self-organizing ghettos. In this way, they can avoid American cultural norms for as long as possible.
Sweet.
—–
The Democrats have gifted/burdened the State with an entire army of entitlement activists. Most of their energies are spent subverting all laws WRT illegals in the name of their higher cause. It gives them a HUGE boost to their Maslovian urges to spend magic money on their favored crowd.
—–
Do NOT think that fortunes are not still made in California. It IS true that to make one you must be a retired/ then rehired unionized public employee.
( You crank up your retirement by working absurd overtime in your last 13 months and then ‘retire’ in your early fifties. Next, your clan rehires you to fill in your old position — now as an ‘independent’ specialist, non-negotiated contractor. Since the new hat carries no additional pension rights the paycheck is cranked up to equal what the old maximum year provided until you see fit to take it even easier.)
toadold@9 – I believe that what wil happen is the Federal Reserve wil bail out California, Illinois, and New York and that will precipitate a political crisis of immense proportions. Illinois will likely be the first to go.
Liberals have feelings not thoughts. Trying to argue with them rationally is like trying to argue with a person who is in love. Reason just doesn’t enter into it.
Our current constitutional system is probably irremediably broken. Probably ben that way since John Marshall first decided he didn’t like the role the constitution set for the courts and substituted his own preference for an unrestrained judiciary. Lincoln did it even further damage and the two Roosevelts and Wilson set us on the final collision course with reality.
I love Wretchard’s blogs and the people who respond. They are some of the most thoughtful on the web but most here are still living in the past, Atlanteans calling for their slaves even as the water rushes in (or is it Sherman rushing in?), still thinking about how to save what is already gone. There is nothing left to conserve today hence conservatism itself is dead. Time to stop mourning what is lost and start planning the world anew.
The national test will be on the debt limit. If the House Republicans refuse to raise it, if they refuse to take the sucker punch and fold as Newt Gingrich did when Clinton dared him to “shut down the government,” then the game will change but until that moment when they really see that the check will not be cashed there is no way that the socialists will believe they are being told “No.” Then you will really begin to hear screaming.
Many years ago, I went to an ATM to take out $100 in cash. I got the usual five bills, all twenties I assumed. But when I looked at them, one was a fifty dollar bill.
My goodness! Thirty extra dollars, like manna from heaven. It was never debited from my account. Somewhere, in some single entry amongst billions of lines of transactions, unseen by anyone, there is a mysterious $30 deficit sitting in the bank’s records.
Yet I was $30 richer that day, by magic.
Perhaps this is the same way California will solve its financial problems.
Hi Richard: One item of note that Greece and California share in common (I have come to realize this while living here). I believe that one of the things that makes the Left strong in both CA and Greece is that both states benefit from (suffer) from intense attraction to outsiders as a tourist destination. I live in San Francisco where it is most pronounced and visible in a local gov’t as left and as crazy as they come. Both CA and Greece are analogous to oil states or states with natural resources in that no matter what they do people still come and buy “it” which essentially creates a strong export trade which is what tourism is. In a place like San Francisco, which is especially whacky, tourism and health care are the major industries, followed by local / state gov’t, which is funded by taxes on those two industries and others. Of course, CA and Greece are not completely dependent on tourism and have other industry, but this spigot, and the cushion it provides over core industry or business, is important to keep in mind.
No, of course not wretchard but someone must tell the truth. So that it is written somewhere that there are still sensible men in the nation if for nothing else, for the record.
The first statement is true. The Left is insane by any reasonable definition. But, could there be a need for a new 3%? Think about that for a time.
Now THAT is funny if it were not so dang true.
But some of use refuse, REFUSE to be driven there.
Molon labe
Thrasy…. said:
“…..that conservatives can never do anything except tinker at the margins, or delay some desired policy for a few years.”
True, if you accept the Leftists narrative. And it is theirs not the 3%’ers. Think differently for solutions and remember the rough men, the ‘Operatives’.
Reason won’t have any effect on leftists in California, or in Alpha Centauri. The five bodily senses will do what reason can’t. A cold, poor, hungry, frightened, dispossessed leftist will notice that something is up – just like non-leftists in the same situation would.
Leftists will come to their senses alright, except it will be their physical senses they come to, not brain sense. But that won’t be good news for the rest of us.
On the day that their physical senses impinge upon their progressive delusions, leftists will begin baying for revolution because, in their minds, some malignant other stole all their candy. They will believe that the revolution will bring back the candy store.
Speaking of lampposts: http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/112462/
The problem perhaps really hides itself, in a fact, that conservative movement don’t really speak out. The people out there is Europe don’t know anything about the American exceptionalism, the Constitution, and the most important believes in freedom. They know nothing. I can swear to that, since I came out from the soviet occupied territories in Europe, I came to USA, I am a citizen and a conservative Republican, but I swear to God, I knew nothing about freedom, before the time of becoming a citizen of USA. It happened by reading the Constitution, which gave me understanding of freedom. It is a total darkness about that in Europe, in the very countries who regained freedom from communism, who hated communism. But still- they don’t have a clue, what freedom is, or a clue, what USA is about. It is heartbreaking.
Thrasymachus #4 is right. We keep trying to name a problem, searching for a solution. Don Rumsfeld (or perhaps Dick Cheney, but I think Rumsfeld) held a brilliant press conference once where he said
“problems without solutions aren’t problems. They’re facts.”
We keep looking for a solution to the Left’s insatiable desire for money and power. There is no solution. We keep looking for a solution to the problem of governance in CA that led to them electing Jerry Brown again. There is no solution. Bankruptcy isn’t going to solve the problem, either, because it won’t change their desire. When the Left in Russia had eaten everything there was to eat, and spent all the money they’d stolen, they created a genocide, the Harvest of Sorrow.
We’d do well to remember that the Left has an unconstrained vision of humanity, following Rousseau. If they could just get us all to line up the right way, we’d be perfect. We on the other side will never win with a different unconstrained vision, one where the nobleness of people keeps them from plundering when all around them do, or where the nobleness of people makes them choose to subject their offspring to pain rather than let the govt take charge of some aspect of their life.
No, we have to make do with our constrained visions, one where we just get to make tradeoffs based on facts, not look for solutions that don’t exist. There is no solution to the Left’s hunger. It’s a fact. Given that fact, how to we limit their ability to invade us like locusts? We’d do well to start by limiting their ability to reach our children via public education. But it may be too late for that to matter.
A quick lesson in economics. If California, Illinois, and New York default it is not just going to bring California, Illinois, and new York to their knees. It will also bring everyone holding those bonds to their knees and the economy country wide not just in California, Illinois, and New York will crumble. That is why they will certainly be bailed out. That bailout, probably by way of the Federal Reserve will just be a continuation of the moral hazzard introduced into the system by the GM and bank bailouts.
What happens after California is bailed out is likely to be even uglier than what wil happen if they are not bailed out but since that crisis is one kick of the can further down the street the whizz bangs running this lunatic assylum will probably figure they will face and and muddle through then. So what is that even uglier event? It will be a run on the Treasury by federal bond holders.
How does a run on the Treasury work? Holders of our sovereign debt see the Fed propping up CalPers bonds by printing money and buying them will realize that those Treasuries they are holding are dropping in value faster than John Edwards presidential prospects. They will rush to sell to convert that bad paper to something tangible like oil. With everyone selling Treasuries and nobody buying the Feds are at the brink of default except that the Fed is the buyer of last resort so the print more money to buy treasuries so the government can continue to meet current obligations thus driving the spiral down ever further – hyper=inflation.
Now hyper-inflation is not all bad. If you happen to be sitting on $100K of school loans that could possibly be paid off with the equivelent a pack of cigarettes, a quart of Boone’s Farm and 5 gallons of gasoline provided the government doesn’t decide to index those loans because you owe the money to them directly and not the bank. On the other hand if you have $100K in the bank I would not bet heavily that would be fully indexed if it is indexes at all.
Right now the biggest problem in the world is that nobody knows what anything is worth because all of the major currencies are fiat currencies. As a result we have the totally anomalous situation where gold and silver and stocks keep hitting new highs. The only way investors could rationally be betting on both precious metals and securities is if nobody has much faith in currencies.
I do not know how many political systems have survived hyper-inflation without some kind of major political overhaul but I would be willing to bet not many which is why we should all be considering what kind of government and constitution we want after the coming upheaval. The times they will soon be a changing.
Why bother writing about it? Well, the rest of us might profit from the knowledge of two mistakes to avoid: one, don’t do what they did; two, don’t bail them out of it.
It will not matter what the left thinks when the wheels fall off. When the idea of escape from things that seemed inevitable occurs to people, those same things become unsupportable. The left is always hopeless, it is others that need a plan.
Most of the lefty people I know here in California do not see our budget problem as a problem of too much gov’t – rather they see California’s financial problems as caused by an unfair tax system that allows rich Republicans to not pay their fair share.
They haven’t yet arrived at the idea that our wonderful social safety net is unsustainable.
Do the “3%’ers” have the only answer? I think it will, in the end, come down to something like that. A few well-chosen sanctions–with the understanding that there are many more where those came from–might be all that was needed: “Listen. We’re serious this time. You’ve done enough harm. Step away from the levers of power and we’ll leave you and your families alone.”
Suppose they(the left) are correct? So long as somebody will pay the bills, there is no reason to think the welfare state can’t go on forever. To say that another way, so long as Calipornia can con, sweet talk, hustle or force somebody else to pay the bills, they are in good shape,
We will know in a few weeks If Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling, the world will end. The White House says so. So the good people of Calipornia made a bet. They bet that Governor Moonbeam would be able to hustle up more drugs and alcohol so the party could go on. It is good bet since if the world ends you might as well be broke and high when it happens.
Who would you vote for? The woman promising you blood, sweat, and tears or the guy saying “Party on dude”.
The only way Calipornia loses is if Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling and the world doesn’t end….What are the odds on that? It would mean civilization is really smoke and mirrors……A scam……..What are the odds on that?
If it really is a scam, why shouldn’t the morons pay for our party?
Worse comes to worst and Albertsons closes we can always eat the rich.
Joe Hill @ 36
None, depending on what you mean by hyperinflation
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation
pinched
“Extreme inflation, minimally in excess of four-digit annual percent change, where the involved currency becomes worthless. A fairly crude definition of hyperinflation is a circumstance, where, due to extremely rapid price increases, the largest pre-hyperinflation bank note ($100 bill in the United States) becomes worth more as functional toilet paper/tissue than as currency.”
America might be the First. I say that because no other nation has ever been in the USA’s position of dominance as the world’s only super power. Nor has any other nation had such a large percentage of the planets wealth.. Junk Bond Ben is betting that America is to big to fail. Not sure that is a good bet but there is no utopia. America doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be better then everybody else. If we go down the tube we take everybody else with us. We might even end up stronger, relative to where we are today.
Isn’t their a technique were a company intentionally drives down their stock price so they can buy it up cheap before announcing their new and improved, super duper, best ever widget?
As Wretchard points out, the left is an old problem. Actually, in my viewpoint, it is an ancient problem revolving around the concept of using tax money to buy support from segments of the populace. Ancient Rome can provide more than a few examples.
Hyperinflation = Money Printing = Hyperinflation…
The fact that it is a Political-Financial Narcotic is CENTRAL to the Final blow-off.
From the first, it is a CHEAT by the Powers That Be.
No addict-polity can refuse the next ‘boost.’
The collapse in value obvious to the man-in-the-street is a FINAL phase of the addiction.
Earlier in, TPTB tell one and all: we can handle it.
They never do.
Hyperinflation and collapse can occur WITHOUT any major war — current or immediately preceding.
Witness Rome circa AD 79. Coin dipping became part of the ‘minting’ procedure. Not so surprisingly, it drove all of the prior specie into hiding.
—–
When Weimar Germany kicked the habit she did so by issuing SILVER specie.
Not withstanding the gold bugs, gold almost never trades hands. It is not commercial grade specie.
The market wants Silver. All prior great empires/nations were on Silver Standards — to include our own until 1873. ( Spain, England, France, Rome, China, Venice, Genoa, etc.
The idea of going to gold + paper gold is a purely British idea. Her Empire found too much gold.
——–
To show you how true it is that gold DID NOT TRADE witness Darius III. He held onto Fort Knoxian levels of royal gold and did not part with any of it to buy off negotiable Greeks within Alexander’s ranks. What a FOOL.
Instead, gold is a Royal Metal. It is held, in most societies, only by the VERY rich — if the public is allowed to own gold at all. In most primitive societies gold was reserved for the Sovereign and his favorites — typically his religion.
Only in the most extreme cases was silver rejected in favor of gold: Attila the Hun famously wanted gold. He was a thief on horseback. Likewise, the western outlaws would shun silver. The posse would be sure to bag them with silver.
—–
All of which says that silver has only begun its run back into money use. Dumb money is selling and smart money is buying. The demand for purified commercial grade silver is so intense that those involved are expanding operations dramatically.
In the fullness of time JPMorgan will go bankrupt again, setting an all time world record for insolvency.
They love their Charles Manson
And hate their Victor Hanson
They love their Lefty charmers
And hate their working farmers
They love kinky seducers
And hate the wealth producers
They love their Lefty greenies
And hate Fox Channel meanies
And now with empty pockets
And new laws on the dockets
That punish those who work still
To give to those who work nil
They think that we will save them
But we should just enslave them
And make work unrequited
Until the land they’ve blighted
Is prosperous and sunny
Awash in hard earned money
And Lefty pols are banished
And Boxerdom has vanished
And when they’ve reached that station
We’ll welcome to our nation
A State no more beholden
A State that’s once more Golden
Great essay and discussion, Wrechard. Very timely.
I am a 5th and last generation Californian. It pains me to see what the state has become. However, for its own good, as well as the rest of the nation, the state must fail in order to be reborn. It is better to let the forces of economics have their way over fools in order for the rest of the nation to learn and change their ways.
There are consequences of actions, and California has not collectively suffered the consequences of irresponsible actions. The reservoir is actually and figuratively drained, and they will get no water in the reservoir until the outlet is restricted for a good while.
If sick states like California, Illinois, New York, et al, are bailed out, they will bring us all down. However, every disaster is a new opportunity, as a friend said after the Alaska Earthquake of 1964, and some responsible behaviors may just grow out of this fiscal and social disaster.
But this will only happen if we allow the state to fail from its own folly.
The Left have cargo cult minds.
So they put on the “earphones” made of coconut halves and vines, and sit hopefully at the end of the abandoned runway, waiting for the big metal birds.
Reason ain’t in it. Only emotion. That, and the Slave Mentality: “Make us your slaves, but feed us!”
It reminds me of Simone de Beauvoir’s remark about why so many women cling to their dependent, inferior status: “it exempts them from the risks and decisions of history-making.”
I agree that the Leftist mindset will be always with us, in one form or another. But I think Dostoevsky nailed it — it is formed from the desire to evade the terrors of real, actual freedom. Whether you fear and loathe the freedom of others (the mentality of the tyrants and petty tyrants), or fear being responsible for yourself, the root of it is that existential fear, I think.
So appealing to people’s self-respect and pride, and their desire to go their own way, won’t shift it — that’s the very thing they fear the most.
What to do? I think we need to concentrate on doing a little consciousness-raising with the Unaware, which is most people, and hope for the best. Like Samuel Adams did in the Revolution. You don’t need to convert everyone, just get to the point of critical mass.
F47 (#6) The problem with the ID thing is there are States giving away the only “true” US id used by the masses, that is official State Driver Lic and State ID’s, these are being giving to illegal’s by those very liberal states in the west so to keep them (the Illegal’s) from being denied there rights to vote and receive welfare, so now the Illegal’s advance into and infect the other states, which this brings up the point also of all those people fleeing California are also the ones who voted the insane governments officials into office that created the failing State, what do you think they are going to do in their new home State’s!
#21 F — Read the comments following VDH’s column and you’ll remark the sense of discovery from Hanson’s words among his readers: these are folks who need intellectual structure for the anger and frustration they feel.
Exactly, F. Many of us who spend much of every day reading articles and posts here at BC and elsewhere forget that most of our fellow citizens don’t do likewise. Those people often have no intellectual framework onto which they can place events of the day in order to understand political problems. We must continue a steady drumbeat of our prescriptions to treat the disease ailing us or else the nostrums of snake-handlers will fill the vacuum.
People like Hanson and wretchard are rivulets which can merge and create a mighty current cleansing the political sewer.
Why isn’t America drilling for more oil?
I don’t get it. It’s the anti-China. The US thinks the future is in the failed ideas of the 70s–solar and wind. The next GOP candidate should emphasize a more aggressive approach to meet America’s energy needs–drill everywhere including ANWR and match France in reliance for nuclear power.
It makes complete sense, and it will put Obama and the dems on the defensive. Let’s destroy the Global Warming movement once and for all in 2012.
“Rage Against Reality”
I’ve heard all this before, in the 1970s, when it was pointed out that (now-triumphant) groups *** and *** and *** (cannot be mentioned here, as accurate description and open declaration is unacceptable at PJM) were at war with their own reproductive, sexual, and inherent natures.
Rage is the 1960s emotion, not love. It will continue until the baby boomers and profiteering epigone are dead, thirty to forty years from now.
Better convert to Islam now. Get that paper from the mosque. Know the direction to Mecca.
Just remember that one paranoid man, backed by a state apparatus, was able to murder millions of his most productive countryment in a bid to retain power and control. That it set back his country’s food production and caused famines was of no import. Who is to say the delusional “left” in CA and their memebers in congress will not raise an army to invade and take the resources of their more productive (red state) neighbors?
Oh, silly me! They have done so already, it was called TARP, Jobs Bills, bank bailouts, foreign bailouts and unrestrained deficit spending. I still trust Americans are more grounded overall and will right this ship, but it may take a lost generation to happen. As a middle pack boomer I do not expect to have any support from the Feds when retirement age arrives (if it is even then possible).
Also, keep your eye on the failed state to our South, it may be the trigger that brings the end to the American experiment by allowing the “left” to distract by requesting extraordinary powers. Do not let this happen fellow countrymen!
Regarding high inflation rates and debt; personally speaking, I would welcome inflation rates in the UK similar to those of the 1970s – which reached around 30% p.a. IIRC.
Why? Simple, really. On the very basic side, I have no savings at all and around $400,000 in debt – and no realistic prospect of paying it off, thanks to the wrecking job that bonus-chasers in the banks’ casino divisions have done on the world’s economy.
I would like to see a comparison of financial status between those who actually provide useful services and/or goods (manufacturers, retailers and so on) and the parasites (bankers, lawyers, tax accountants, politicians, government employees). If this info is available, I would bet long odds that it’s the parasites who have savings and the useful who have debt.
And this means that inflation would hit the parasites and help the useful. Feature, not a bug.
@50
John, I have asked that question often. Usually in the form of “why don’t our politicians let us drill for our own oil, mine our own coal, and build our own nuclear power infrastructure?” The answers given never makes sense to me. It seems like there would be something in it for everyone. Jobs for one thing. A cheaper fuel logistics chain for another. The greenies should like the nuke aspect as it is the cleanest, most efficient power source available, and “The China Syndrome” notwithstanding, it is safer than Ted Kennedy’s car. The “no war for oil” and human rights crowds should like it because we won’t be subsidizing oil with our armed forces. The isolationist right and left should like it for obvious reasons. Seems like a no brainer, but I am not an Ivy League grad, so maybe I am missing something.
I do know our media is no help at all. When the price of gas goes up under a Republican, there is talk of executive collusion with “Big Oil” and heartbreaking stories about average people trying to get to work and old people freezing to death. Under a Democrat, rising costs are merely an adjustment to reflect the “true environmental cost” of fuel usage to pampered westerners and therefore, fully justified as vindication for past sins. Orphanage and homeless shelter heating never comes up.
Charles @ 48:
…what do you think they are going to do in their new home State’s!
Which is what infuriated me this weekend. I moved to the DFW Metromess this year and there was an article on how the Dhimms have taken over City & County gov’t. They were extactic that they really could do this thing …. govern….. BUT…
For one, the ISD’s are now in budget crisis as are all the public employee unions. Two, the new PC Dallas Police Chief’s son shot and killed a Lancaster PD officer in a drug deal/domestic gone wrong. The kid then got a Dallas PD police escort to his funeral. Three, Arlington officer just killed in a domestic call protecting a child (lack of training?). Four, Police Brutality Texas Trooper Woman Slammed Concrete Wall …. and on and on…
The DFW Metromess is circling the Liberal drain.
Vanguard @54,
Signs are, if Obama has agency, it is currently in the employ of OPEC.
To my reckoning, OPEC never gave up its cartel’s extortionist goals after its 1970′s price-fixing. The cartel did not disband, it simply went underground and forged deniable patronage ties with the political factions inside America that shared its monopolistic, manipulative goals.
(Check out the picture of Hillary and Chavez hyucking it up at Drudge. It’ll help make my point for me.)
These factions are our environmental and “progressive” factions. And since their energy policy amounts to dependency on OPEC products coupled with the appearance of scarcity in America’s consumer energy-markets, it was a good fit. And it was a deniable one, too. After all, why would a burkenstock-wearing greeny from Santa Cruz want to hug a petro-Sheik? It’s perfect cover.
But, “deniable uncooperability” is pretty thin cover anymore. And there are plenty of operational models for apparently paradoxic pairings of this sort to point to. For one, this cooperation is reminiscent of the queer sybiosis between Big Tobacco and the ‘sin-taxers’ in Sacramento: California’s tax takes depend on tobacco sales, while the state institutionalizes the market for Altria’s products in turn. Similarly, folks at the Tides Foundation, and Davos, and the UN, and in Jacques Chirac’s bureaus (just to name a few) were tickled throughout the nineties by the prospect of “taxing” Americans’ energy use by recycling OPEC’s ad fees and political contributions t.hrough carefully selected “progressive” media orgs., 527′s and PAC’s. And so, if it can be said that California is addicted to Big Tobacco, it’ll follow that America’s current ruling claque is hooked on OPEC black goo.
Of course, increasing domestic fuels extraction, or leading a concerted switch to nuclear power, or initiating a campaign to move to clean coal, are all anathema to OPEC’s and the Dem’s export-based money laundering racket. And they detour Americans’ daily energy dollars away from the Dem’s electoral ghettoes into conservative Texan, Kansan, Missourian, S. and N. Dakotan, Canadian and Alaskan ones.
Which, in a big nutshell, is why OPEC/Obama sniffs at enacting any of them.
Wow, this Auden guy sounds really smart. I wish I had met him during the Summer of Love
imho the pubbies in congess will cut off a lot of federal funding to the states next year. california will be hit in a big way.
@56
steveaz, you mean its not really about the environment and taking care of Mother Gaia?!? But, but…
(breaks down into a blubbering mess like a spoiled 9 year old who didn’t get a pony)
After VDH posted at Pajamas Media the following post was put up.
Failed State Watch: How Much Longer for Mexico? (Part One)
by Alberto de la Cruz
Mr de la Cruz concludes that Mexico is rapidly turning into a clear and present danger.
The giant sucking sound from Mexico is getting louder.
imho through his family VDH also channels a certain level CalMex opinion. That opinion if I’m reading Mr de la Cruz correctly is shifting to a harder line on illegals. That is the existential danger that Mexico poses is beginning to outweigh the mother’s milk affection for the old country.
Jerry Brown does have a supply side/Arthur Laffer “history.” He was pushing tax reform at the Federal level in his ’92 run for the White House. From Wikipedia:
Although he would focus on a variety of issues throughout the campaign, most especially his endorsement of living wage laws and his opposition to free trade agreements such as North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), he mostly concentrated on his tax policy, which had been created specifically for him by Arthur Laffer, the famous supporter of supply-side economics who created the Laffer curve. This plan, which called for the replacement of the progressive income tax with a flat tax and a value added tax, both at a fixed 13% rate, was decried by his opponents as regressive. Nevertheless, it was endorsed by The New York Times, The New Republic, and Forbes, and its raising of taxes on corporations and elimination of various loopholes which tended to favor the very wealthy, proved to be popular with voters.
At the time I thought it was the right message from the wrong messenger. It would be ironic if the supply side Governor turned out to be Jerry rather than Arnold.
39. Mel Williams was spot on:
They are totally frustrated because they don’t have a clue as to who the three remaining rich Republicans living in California might be.
Sorry to put a damper on all this pessimism, but today is a great day to be alive in Wisconsin!
Scott Walker has just been inaugurated as governor and immediately called the new (Republican) legislature to a special session to strengthen the state’s economy and deal with a 3 billion deficit.
Below are a few highlights from his speech. The full text is available here http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/112814919.html
“WISCONSIN IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS!”
“Our jobs plan provides relief from taxation, regulation and litigation costs…”
“Soon, we will lay out our plans for the next state budget and we will successfully tackle the three billion dollar deficit…Let me be clear on one thing: Increasing taxes is off the table…”
“We will right-size state government by ensuring government is providing only the essential services our citizens need and taxpayers can afford.”
“Our rights as free people are given by our creator, not the government. Among these rights is the right to nurture our freedom and vitality through limited government.”
“It is through frugality and moderation in government that we will see freedom and prosperity for our people.”
“To businesses around the world [including California], I say bring your jobs here.”
“A high quality of life; however, is not the result of a bigger, ever-expanding government.”
“In Wisconsin, we will define our quality of life as the expansion of liberty, freedom, and economic prosperity…”
(couldn’t have said it any better myself – ON WISCONSIN!)
jimbo, as a fellow Wisconsinite, I was very, very happy when Walker won and even happier to see the end of the sleazy, spend-thrift Doyle. I have been disappointed by so many pols it’s sometimes hard to keep my hopes up. I pray Walker lives up to his campaign promises. He’s off to a great start!
They are totally frustrated because they don’t have a clue as to who the three remaining rich Republicans living in California might be.
Hey, can’t they squeeze more out of the denizens of Malibu and Beverly Hills? The Hollywood crowd should be thrilled to pony up; after all, you know 99.9% of them voted for Moonbeam and Boxer.
C’mon, Tim Robbins, Sean Penn, Whoopi, Susan Sarandon, Warren Beatty, etc., etc, etc….you love statism, you pay for it!
Since Auden was already mentioned, the discussion about people who just won’t get it reminds me of the following ee cummings poem:
plato told
him:he couldn’t
believe it(jesus
told him;he
wouldn’t believe
it)lao
tsze
certainly told
him,and general
(yes
mam)
sherman;
and even
(believe it
or
not)you
told him:i told
him;we told him
(he didn’t believe it,no
sir)it took
a nipponized bit of
the old sixth
avenue
el;in the top of his head:to tell
him
I’ve been reading this guy recently. He runs a hedge fund and thinks that all Hell will break loose if the Feds don’t bail out the bankrupt states.
Smashmaster
Great commentary there Wretchard. I, too, wondered about the point of VDH’s article, because we all wonder and scratch our heads about the left. It is a handy summary of some of the obvious pathologies found on the left, but it begs the question: How can they be so blind? What makes them tick? Why are they so, as I say, “functionally insane”?
One thing to keep in mind is that the good Dr. Hanson is by training and inclination a scholar and educator. As such, he has to hope that a persuasive argument can change peoples’ minds. Unfortunately, the Left is, as you accurately put it, functionally insane. You can try talking reason to a lunatic all you want but to no avail. They remind me of the people who can’t believe they’re overdrawn because they still have checks in their checkbook.
The best thing the rest of us can do is to refuse to be enablers to the Left’s delusions. They say that addicts seldom want to change their ways until they hit rock bottom. I suspect the same is true of leftists. Bailing them out will only delay the inevitable and will further drag us down with them.
aDuoist
“Trouble is, since WWII, for each decade that French workers out-performed American workers, the Americans out-produced the French by twice as many decades. If the 2/1 trend holds, half of all French workers will be below the American poverty line by the end of this decade”
I’m sure your info came from 1960 newspapers, cuz, if you read your aware economy papers of today, see what they say:
“According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), France is ranked just after the U.S. and Norway for hourly labor productivity, calculated by dividing gross domestic product by the number of hours worked. This calculation works to France’s disadvantage though, as Norway’s GDP is inflated by oil revenue, which isn’t entirely the fruit of a person’s labor.
Germany and Sweden, which are both well below France for hourly productivity, along with Singapore, which is lower still, don’t even bear comparison, while productivity in Europe’s “cheap” destination, Romania, is a full 80% lower”
uh, we beat the Germans in productivity !
http://online.wsj.com/ad/article/france-productivity
and we are the wealthiest:
http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-french-work-the-least-in-the-world-but-are-richer-than-almost-everybody-2010-10
France has $36,500 GDP/Capita and works 1,453 hours per year. This equates to a GDP/Capita/Hour of $25.10. Americans, on the other hand, have $44,150 GDP/Capita but work 1,792 hours per year. Thus Americans only achieve $24.60 of GDP/Capita/Hour.
This puts the French Labor Alpha at about $0.50 GDP/Capita/Hour over the US. It may sound small at first, but add that up across millions of people, and a few decades. Now you’ve built a lesson for the rest of the world to learn.
http://www.businessinsider.com/are-the-french-the-most-productive-people-in-the-world-2009-8#ixzz1A6DNJhJI
and
Millionnaires : la France au troisième rang mondial
http://www.lefigaro.fr/impots/2010/10/11/05003-20101011ARTFIG00375-plus-de-deux-millions-de-millionnaires-vivent-en-france.php
and we work more than Germany: 38 h vs 35,7 h (Germany part-time Hartz IV jobs)
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=AVE_HRS
update your infos !!!!
65. Donna V.: I was thinking along the same lines; Let Californians bail out California.
I suspect I am like many conservatives nationwide. I spend most of my time taking care of myself and mine by working steadily. I am infuriated with the socialist slide our country is in but can not influence it any more than voting. We hope things get better but fear it will get worse. There is always the possibility we will have to take aggressive action just to defend ourselves, our families and our property. The left underestimates conservative resolve at their own peril. No threat intended; A warning is very much intended.
Claude, enough with telling us about how great France is. Your military sucks and it doesn’t even trust its own troops because too many of them are Muzzie. You’re going to have to “split” aircraft carriers with Britain and you’ve got completely unassimilated (and unassimilable) aliens destroying your cities and burning 1000 cars a night whenever they get the slightest bit ticked. They rob, rape and beat you natives with abandon, your European population is aging and not having children, and you can’t even get rid of the Gypsies that are stealing you blind. You’ve one way out–a major upheaval and mass deportations–but it’s not going to happen because you’ve all got too much Vichy in you. You’re going to roll over for the Muzzies and you’ll do it sooner rather than later. Marcel Bigeard had you modern-day Frenchies pegged to a tee because he knew what real, brave Frenchmen looked like. He didn’t think they existed in France any longer–and he was right!
This maybe a golden opportunity. There is nothing that says we can’t bail out California without conditions. If they want to continue the bankrupt welfare state and illegal immigration fantasy island and green theme park it will come with conditions.
There are many but I would start with two. Roll back tax rates to 1974 levels and abolish any agency or regulation created since Ronald Reagan left the governor’s mansion.