Korea
If the United States cannot find an effective way to deter the aggressive behavior of North Korea, countries in Asia which have relied on the “international system” since the war must ask themselves two questions. First, is nonproliferation truly dead? Second, is America unwilling to defend its allies?
If the answer to both questions is yes, then Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore will eventually take steps to acquire nuclear weapons. It would be a moment similar to the realization that the British Empire’s “Singapore” strategy was a fiction and a sham and now every nation had to look to itself. The collapse of the American security guarantee would mean the only way to guarantee security would be to rely on one’s own deterrent capability rather than rely on the world of Barack Hussein Obama.
It would be a momentous step, one which most countries in the region would be unprepared to take. One cannot imagine Julia Gillard, for example, declaring nonproliferation dead. She is too politically invested in the fiction to readily embrace a contrary fact. New Zealand is probably in the same case. For the foreseeable future, nonproliferation will be openly dead only to North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. All the rest will treat it as live even though it is moldering at the table at which it has sat immobile, inarticulate, the dishes placed and taken away from it like offerings before a waxen figure. Much of the world will cling to the hope it will speak again even if it has not spoken for some time, simply because they cannot bring themselves to accept the alternative.
But what can be acceptably done is to set a series of red lines coupled to a political process that can be invoked to determine whether and when nonproliferation has failed; and whether the U.S. defense shield is a broken reed. At some point even the most polite host must get up to pinch the corpse at the dining table and if it topples over be willing to declare with much regret that it is indisposed.
It is not impossible to build a political consensus around a group of clear metrics, which if transgressed, signals that yes, the nations must come to arms.
Those metrics might include a measurement of the number of warheads North Korea has, its delivery systems, and its behavior. In fact drawing the red lines may have utility in itself. If Australia and Japan say: past this line and we build — remembering that Australia has some of the largest uranium deposits in the world and Japan some of the most advanced technology — then even the maddest dog might be given pause.
Perhaps that time has not yet come. But politicians ought to describe what combination of circumstances might cause governments to recognize its existence. There is always the chance that Barack Obama is the Arthur Percival of the 21st century. Beaten before he starts. Too timid to go forward, too late to defend. When can he be justifiably regarded as a second-rater and not the Duke of Wellington come to life? Maybe now is too impolitic. But there must come a time — whatever allowances are made — when confidence is at end.
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The United States is willing to defend its allies. Present CiC Obama is not. He has projected weakness wherever he as gone, and events are beginning to overtake him. this will not bode well for us or our allies.
New Zealand is extremely hypocritical to depend on the U.S. nuclear umbrella to keep the peace and yet critize the U.S. nuclear arsenal. It will be interesting to see how New Zealand reacts to the realization the U.S. won’t use nuclear weapons to protect New Zealand and other Pacific rim nations.
Are there any other circumstances surrounding the nork attack? Or did they just start shelling on a whim? I was surprised that the RoK didn’t retaliate decisively after their boat was sunk and I’m wondering what it’ll take for them to go on offense. Also, how much can we (America) do with a lot of our guys in the middle east and elsewhere. I guess we could send a few battlegroups close in to shore if they aren’t already there. Don’t we have 40K troops close by? I know that’s not a huge number for an attack but I think 40K would seem huge if they were wiped out on day one of a real shooting war with the norks. All I can do is pray for the guys and gals on the line and hope they make outta there safely.
This possibility has been recognized in the Middle East. The Sunnis may get their bomb if Shi’a Iran gets theirs. Once Teheran gets the bomb, it’s a case of keeping up with neighbors. Then Israel may be the least of the Muslim world’s worries.
The same dynamic will inevitably play out in Asia. If a rogue power acquires nuclear weapons it will constitute an existential threat which must be met either by a security guarantee or unilateral action. Most countries are willing to let America lead. But it must lead. It can falter for a while. Yet eventually some cause to retain confidence must be forthcoming. Confidence and legitimacy is a fragile thing. Once it is broken then people start making their own arrangements.
When nuclear weapons were a superpower monopoly second-tier powers could gain nothing by arming. But a breakdown or unilateral retreat of America will not, as some imagine, lead to a “world without nuclear weapons”, but rather to a world that is universally armed. That is how the world was before the Pax Americana. Why should it be different after? Then we will move to new model of deterrence, one that is unstable and far less predictable.
The real price of bringing down the hegemon is that it will thereafter be a case of every man for himself. The Left has often wanted America off the world stage. Now they may be like a dog that has finally caught the car.
Wretchard said:
“… then Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will eventually take steps to acquire nuclear weapons. … It would be a momentous step, one which most countries in the region would be unprepared to take. One cannot imagine Julia Gillard, for example, declaring nonproliferation dead. She is too politically invested in the fiction to readily embrace a contrary fact. New Zealand is probably in the same case.”
New Zealand has effectively disarmed itself. It’s ironic that New Zealand was able to disarm due to the ANZUS pact but during the Cold War did almost everything it could to overturn America’s nuclear umbrella in the South Pacific (being “nuclear free” was so politically correct).
New Zealand continues to exist as a sovereign state because no adversary has yet chosen to conquer it. That could change in the near future with New Zealand’s significant natural resources being seen as a valuable prize by a resource poor belligerent. If China decided to gobble up New Zealand would Australia intervene? A more pointed question: Could Australia intervene given that China has nukes and Australia does not?
With Turkey turning openly Islamist, Iran Syria and Hizbulah practically taking power in Lebanon and NK acting up, our pResident is going to write a severe memo then another vacation. Is MicHELLe proud of the US now?
Maybe another round of golf will solve everything.
Remember, ‘never let a crisis goto waste’.
This is so overblown.
So the nutbar Norks fire off some artillery. We don’t have the power to keep the Norks from being nutbars. If the South Koreans object, we will support them, but we don’t need to jump out front. If the time comes for us to nuke the Nork I won’t shed a tear, but to paraphrase (the movie) Aragorn that day is not today.
And really, so what if the nutbars have a few atomic bombs? The one worthwhile thing Bill Clinton ever did (if the story is not apochryphal) is to read the Norks the riot act, telling them if they attacked the US, it would be a hundred years before anybody next saw where North Korea used to be. That still holds, at least we still have the disproportionate power to make it hold. And the same goes for Iran, etc.
What is the real threat, that they smuggle in a bomb by commercial freight, or manage to use one to attack the US fleet, or to blackmail a neighbor? The truth is, one or two or five nukes – especially small and poorly delivered – will not wipe out a country, and nobody dare do it and brag about it while the US, or even Russia or China, or UK or France, or even Israel, stand ready to retaliate. It’s still a MAD world whether anyone likes it or not. At least it is to the smaller nations.
This may lead to South Korea turning to China rather than the US for protection from the Norks, but … in what way would that be different than today?
It’s ugly and digusting, but I think (fortunately) it’s more as Adam Ant says, desparate but not serious.
–
Would one or two well-positioned kill Israel as a state? Perhaps. It would be hard to place one that would kill more Jews than Arabs, but that’s probably not a showstopper.
And what about giving the bombs to terrorists, so that we have no return address for retaliation? Well. That didn’t particularly stop us from retaliating after 9/11 against Iraq, that was not especially the source of that attack. Good on us! Who knows against whom we might retaliate, after a nuke goes off in LA harbor. And if it’s later proven that we had the wrong target, well, perhaps we get a second bite at the apple.
Would the US under Obambus do any of this? I don’t know. I like to think in extreme circumstances things would happen.
Would any such exchanges lead to widespread nuclear war between the US, Russia, and China? I can’t see it. None of the big powers is that crazy.
Unless and until there are dozens of serious nuke warheads with credible delivery systems, in the hands of a dozen small and wack job players, I don’t think there’s too much of a problem. And that scenario is a decade off at best. Time for the US to make moves against it. Or, to fall apart so badly that we have worse things to think about than foreign attackers.
First, is nonproliferation truly dead? Second, is America unwilling to defend its allies?
Looking at the list of groups/countries that lust after a nuclear bomb, I’d have to say non-proliferation is on life support or is dead. The answer to the second part depends on who is the ally in question and where they are located. For example an attack on Canada is too close to home not to be defended – at least that is what most of us up here hope. Far away New Zealand – not so sure. You would think that other Asian allies are so important politically and economically to the US that they would be defended. That may not be a good assumption with the present administration.
A way of setting up one of your red lines might be to ask “what would Reagan have done?” There may be some degree of variance from an imagined Reaganesque response to a specific incident that signifies a broken reed.
Josh…
Until Carter intervened ….
Clinton was, in every meaning of the word — on full attack mode WRT Nork.
I WAS THERE TO SEE THE AIR TRAIN OF MAXIMUM SURGE towards Korea.
Our Air Train is Still Not Official History.
One cannot understand the Kim family business without understanding that Clinton wanted to take Kim down — but Carter upset the apple cart.
Until that reality gets out… The world is chasing a dream of what happened back then.
Further, there were consequences.
We are STILL dealing with them.
Josh @ 7 said:
“This is so overblown. So the nutbar Norks fire off some artillery…”
If it’s just the Norks being crazy on their own then one could say this is “overblown”. However if the Norks got permission from China before they did their little stunt then we have a serious problem.
The Norks are crazy but it’s hard to believe they would deliberately piss off their Chinese patrons.
I too have a hard time envisioning New Zealand taking any hard stance in international security unless it is anti-US nukes. New Zealand will sit it out until the Maori decide to take action. Then watch out, they’ll put on a dance that will knock your lights out.
8 WC – “what would Reagan have done?”
For all of his hawkish views Reagan wasn’t likely to jump to action. Though he steadfastly stared down the Soviets who were an existential threat, I am pretty sure he’d of kept us out of Iraq. He certainly kept us out of Beirut. In the case of Korea I think he’d make some stirring speech and call the free world to condemn the North Koreans in unity. Reagan’s best weapon was his credible threat. A man who is pro-defense, talks about the threats in the world can talk softly and carry a big stick. A leftest, anti-American, pacifist can only argue with deeds.
A full-scale breakout hasn’t happened yet. The advanced Asian countries have not yet gone it alone. Nor will they if leadership is shown.
This can still end well; we can still give a world of peace to our children. But only if we start acting sanely. The margin to support fantasy is gone. It cannot be afforded any longer. There’s still time, but it is running out.
Threats and dangers must be faced openly and recognized frankly. We have to cleanse our language of dishonesty and see things for what they are. The biggest danger isn’t North Korea or even Iran so much as self-imposed blindness and fecklessness.
The North Korean problem has to be approached from the viewpoint of calculated risk. Unless something is risked Pyongyang cannot be stopped. But if too much is risked it can end badly too. Even the Obama administration is coming to the conclusion that doing nothing can increase the danger. The President himself has talked about “breaking the cycle of threat and reward”. That is nothing but another way of saying “we kicked the can down the road”.
Accepting risk means that some part of this problem, though by no means of all it, must be grabbed by the horns now. And that means politicians must take a chance. Failure is always a possibility and that is why politicos will never take a categorical position if they can avoid it. But doing nothing guarantees failure. So the President must either risk something now or play for time and let whoever comes afterward pick up the pieces. It seems fair to observe that if this problem is left to fester then the pieces will be very small indeed.
Nothing is going to be done. There will be no response. None.
This reminds me of Carter and the taking of our embassy, an outright act of war. Nothing was done… until about an hour after Reagan was sworn in. Then Iran quickly released the hostages.
What would Reagan do? We already know from history. It would never happen under Reagan. They wouldn’t dare.
Bin Laden honestly admitted that he was shocked by the extent of Bush’s response to 9/11. He invaded not one, but two, Islamic countries.
Of course, Bush campaigned on a humble foreign policy, so Bin Laden misread those tea leaves. When you signal peace, the sphincters of the world see weakness.
When you signal stupidity, like Obama, then EVERYONE sees weakness.
For all McCain’s faults on domestic policy, he was exactly right about foreign policy during the ’08 campaign.
These situations always make me think of the Thrymskvida. We are definitely wearing the wedding dress; but will we get the hammer back? Thor in the wedding dress is a laugh; Thor killing the giants with Mjolnir while wearing the wedding dress is the last laugh. We may get the last laugh but not, as with Carter, until the clown has left the stage.
A ditzy broad on FOX News last night said that Obama is doing precisely the right thing by ignoring North Korea’s artillary barrage into South Korea yesterday. Her screwy reasoning was that Kim was just throwing a harmless and childish temper tantrum to get attention again, to which the USA should not react. God save us from these ditzy women!!! I suspect that that is Hillary Clinton’s position, too, because that ditz doesn’t have a freaking clue what to do.
As far as the Presidents words, “breaking the cycle…” go, we’ve heard this before. He states the problem so that people at least know he acknowledges it, if not that he is merely intellectually aware of the general perception. This statement is left to suffice for any concrete measures as people imagine actual activity happening when it is only a hand waving distraction until the public’s attention moves on.
Unfortunately, rouge states are smart enough not to march across the Rubicon all at once, instead slipping by in numbers easy enough to ignore by the guards. It’s like the scene in Dune where “Sting” finds out how to kill the King – just move slowly. Obama will if at all possible continue to punt and NK for one, is taking full advantage knowing that another US President might slow or stop the pace of development (given accurate calibration on NK’s part). It will take a US President that knows what he’s going to do beforehand and will take advantage of any slip by NK to tackle this situation.
Nuking up: This too will be a gradual process for threatened states. After all, it only takes one Obama like presidency to throw allies into grave danger. 99% of the time protection isn’t really good enough.
But, missile based weapons, even nukes, probably won’t be the final frontier in alpha weaponry. Large, classified, satellite based systems are being deployed which likely will neutralize ground based threats some time soon. If a space plane fleet is deployed as an effective satellite defensive/offensive force, we
re looking at two new layers of military power. We just need to stay (way) ahead of the curve.
Yes, nonproliferation is dead — but then, it was stillborn.
The doctrine was always premised on a fiction: to wit, that the U.S., with or without Britain, the USSR, et cetera, would be willing to go to war to prevent “unacceptable” states from attaining nuclear capability. That was pure rhetoric, even when we were so powerful that we could have taken on the rest of the world and won. It was shown to be fiction when India and Pakistan acquired nukes, and again when Brazil announced its pursuit of nukes, and once and for all when North Korea demonstrated its possession of nukes.
Today, Iran is pursuing nukes, and no nation on Earth is willing to go to war to prevent this genocidal jihadist gangster-state from getting them.
It was always an unwise policy anyway. Monopolies and cartels of all sorts are inherently fragile. A technological monopoly is at the mercy of Nature’s willingness to spill her guts to any sufficiently determined investigator. The acquisition of nuclear weapons, or of some device as formidable in terms of killing power, by any entity with a bankroll of nation-state magnitude has become inevitable.
The question has therefore become: What now? Should we assist our allies in arming themselves, thereby providing their own deterrence, or should we retreat from our six decades of global military-diplomatic engagement and let the mess sort itself out, however many casualties that might entail?
Myself, I’m booking passage on the next starship out of here. There has to be intelligence and good sense somewhere in the universe.
Non-proliferation has been dead for a while. Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei killed it by protecting first the Pakistani and then the Iranian nuclear program. The Nobel committee rewarded ElBaradei in 2005 with a peace prize.
Is Sasquatch dead? Nessie?
As long as we are discussing fiction, we might as well have some fun with it.
Nobody respects us when we have a Democrat in office. It’s an age old story. Bullies look at sissies and scoff.
We are currently being led by children. They are playing dress up and trying to pretend to be able to handle adult issues, but they can’t. Our entire nation right now, is a costume party.
There is no Democratic Party. There is the Socialist Party pretending to be (barely) populist Democrats. That is a cosmic joke.
The White House has more visitors who identify with Maoism, than they do with the Constitution. Will America defend her allies? Right now, Americans cannot truthfully identify her allies.
We have slapped the face of Britain, Poland, the Baltics and Israel. We have deep bowed, genuflected and groveled before dictators and despots. There is much more warmth being shown to Chavez than Netanyahu.
Precisely who are our allies today and who are our enemies?
We are limp-wristed, weak-knee, lily-livered wimps in the eyes of the world’s tyrants, bullies and madmen. And, sadly…that’s not without good reason.
When Carter, Clinton and Obama have presided over our national defense, we became an engraved invitation to world tyranny.
Clinton “triangulated” because the government would have shut down if he didn’t and Dick Morris lead him by the hand. Carter made us a laughingstock. And Obama is worse.
We are a stealth socialist nation right now…pretending to not be and nobody is believing the masquerade, nobody is buying the sham…except the useful idiots in our own country and our lapdog media,(the front group for the whole charade).
No, we won’t defend our allies. Yes, non-proliferation is as big a fraud as the “Democratic” Party. And, no…we are no longer the world’s “big brother”, keeping it safe from lunatics.
Our own lunatics are running the country…and big brother has just tried on a dress.
It’s inevitable that almost all countries in Asia will go nuclear, and soon. I’ve yet to figure out why China doesn’t put more pressure on NK, Iran, etc to desist. It amazes me that they seem to think that being totally surrounded by nuclear states, many of whom are less than stable, contributes to their security.
The USA is the great adversary to all of these countries now, but that could turn on a dime. What happens if India and Pak let loose? Or Iran and israel? Or NK attacks SK or Japan? Does China pick up the pieces, or does that put her in mortal danger? I’d say the latter is more likely.
Any attempt to nip this would require close cooperation between US, China, Russia, India, and the non-nuclear (at present) states in Asia, with China as the conductor.
I don’t see a snowballs chance of that, because I think the main goal in China is to lessen our influence in the Western Pacific, and they’re willing to let themselves be surrounded because they’re obsessed with that goal.
I’m just thrilled about these sorts of things happening when we have the clowns running the show in DC, so I’m hoping that we can kick the can down the road, have our stupid multilateral talks that rarely achieve anything but buy time, and keep this and other things from getting out of control until we can get new leadership in the US. The thought of facing a real world geopolitical crisis that has the potential to spin out of control with Obama as our leader is enough to give me the willies.
Is this conspiracy theory or is it a valid thought?
Space wars with Reagan, crushed Russia economically. NK is a puppet of China. Is NK acting on behalf of China? Will this conflict spread the US to thin and crush the US economically?
It may not be wise in the short term for China, but China very rarely thinks short term.
No country should have to rely on another country for its defense. Any nation that does that then has to dance to the tune of the stronger nation because its very existance is tied to what the stronger nation does. Smaller countries in the Pacific, such as Australia and New Zealand, have to simply prove to any would-be enemy that those countries are simply not worth the cost of invading. Sweden and Switzerland have maintained their neutrality by proving again and again to any potnetial enemy that they are more than capable of defending their own territory. In short, you would probably have to destroy Sweden or Switzerland in order to conquor it. So if the smaller Asian nations adopt this strategy (like Japan does), they will probably survive any threat. But if the countries place their defense in the hands of the United States, especially with this administration in power, they really are screwed.
Tell me, do you really think Obama would go to war over South Korea? I saying an all-out war like in 1950, not just some random air strikes ment to deter an enemy. If Iran and Afghanistan are any indication of the type of wartime leader this guy is, he would not. Obama would look for the first opportunity to “negotiate” a solution to the problem, which basically means giving the North Korean whatever they wanted so that they would stop fighting. Just remember, the North Koreans would never have sunk a South Korean warship or bombarded a South Korean island if Ronald Reagan was in power. There really is something to be said for that.
W,
Everybody has a plan until the first bullet is fired. In the coming years there are NO words that will stop the Islamic bomb (A.Q Khan thanks asshole) and nuclear proliferation will continue apace until what, thirty or forty nation have them as well as non states (thanks Soviets for selling all the parts, some assembly required).
Nuclear war is inevitible provided the USA and Britian don’t step up and make an unabbiguous statement by nuking those who are hostile to freedom and are totally out of control. France could even throw in their force de frappe.
But sure as the sun rises in the East nuclear war is coming to the world. The freedom loving countries should develop a parallel UN and circumvent the current dysfunctional one. The first tenet …first strike if we detect nuclear arms being develop outside of our new organization.
Gordo,
It is at least a probe.
It will have given a good insight into reaction times and communication routes. Who spoke to whom and when, what did the body language look like. Also what military reactions were there, where did sirens go off, which radar batteries lit up, what air bases went onto alert.
We can speculate on whether or not it was a missile off Kalifornicated a few days back, If it was, then that was a very blatant probe.
The next few weeks and months will provide more opportunities to assess US and allied responses to provocations and may well push on until a hard boundary is detected, or alternatively until sufficient soft spots are detected for future use.
One of Aesop’s Fables has a crow sitting on the head of a sheep, and the sheep complaining that the crow would never dare do such a thing to a dog. “No,” replies the crow “but you aren’t a dog, are you?” – the motto is simple, a fool will tolerate many injustices.
23. Libertyship46
Your strategic comparisons of NZ, Aus with Sweden and Swit lack any cohesion or logic. Alliances are formed because it is well known that some nations lack the resources to defend themselves yet are in valuable strategic location that can not be allowed to fall into totaliarian hands.
FWP/18
…this place around here
is gettin’ so sorry,
b’lieve i’ll take a taxi
to Alpha Centauri
cfb/20; –Carter sure seems like a clown, but maybe that’s just incredibly good disguise. Look at it –he brought down the Shah with his ‘human rights’ campaign, gave us the mullahs and the current world jihad,
waved the Red Army toward the Persian Gulf (he could hardly have done more without hopping on a T-72 fender),
gave away the Panama Canal (Chinese ‘civilians’ now run the construction and maintenance services at both ends),
institutionalized the NoKo nuke weapons program,
put Chavez in office,
and has done all he can to subvert our embattled ally Israel –not to mention the Jewish people per se, not to mention the Christian people by pretending to be one of ‘em, so to pry apart the entire judaochristian one-ness.
Lessee, what else besides doing all he could, unto the very end when he needed to get re-elected and so brought in Volker, to collapse the free world morale and economy (just look at that misery index!).
His admin was marked by new wars breaking out up and down and both coasts of the central American isthmus, south Asia, across central Africa, and unto the capitals of western Europe, given to accept innumerable Red SS-20 IR thermonukes parked across the river & pointed straight at them,
the semi-rape of South Vietnam, the Boat People,
and the Pol Pot ‘one-in-four’ Cambodian genocide.
Oh yes, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Malaise Speech.
Hmm, what’d i forget? anyhoo, could he have done all that in any guise but a clown guise?
Some clown.
…and ridiculed Americans as having “…an inordinate fear of Communism”.
Lest we forget there are 40,000 US troops on the DMZ. Even somebody as feckless as Obama cannot walk back from them although I suspect he would try.
Of far more danger to the future of Western Civilization than a few rogue nations with big bombs is the intellectual vacuity of what passes itself off as The Leadership in Western Europe. Perhaps it is something even greater. Could we find a single Don Garza in Brussels, or London, or Berlin?
When everything is relative then nothing is sacred. The current generation of Europeans have already sold the birthright of their children to the barbarians of Islam for the thin gruel of a few days more vacation.
The 70s ‘era of western moral decline’ gave us Carter? Or the other way around?
…to say “he put dictators in power” is to ludicrously understate –it’s to describe acute agony as “not feeling well” –every one of the enabled and installed and protected monster regimes keeps not only its own people under the lash of fear, hunger and poverty but holds the same knife to the throats of every neighbor.
It would not be far wrong to say Jimmy “but he’s a Christian” Carter permanently injured the institutions (the hard won institutions) and so the well-being, safety, security, health, wealth, happiness, hell, the entire lives and total prospects of billions of people –in fact damn near everybody on earth save the nomenklatura of Russia and China –and America.
“The collapse of the American security guarantee would mean the only way to guarantee security would be to rely on one’s own deterrent capability rather than rely on the world of Barack Hussein Obama.”
American security guarantee or American military welfare? Around 1980 Western Europe achieve parity with America in combined GDP and population, but preferred to play the ‘bread and games’ redistributionist politics rather than take responsibility and the cost of their own defense. They and a lot of the world have lived on their own ‘security borrowing’ for decades past playing on the old fears of the first half of the twentieth century to get the American economic system to keep subsidizing their cloistered artificial environments. Obama or not, the American defense budget is no longer viable even though it has been largely the sole bearer of past ‘government downsizings’ and old commitments can not and should not be simply assumed.
we in the USA want the world to love us but we can’t be bothered to keep globe-wrecking psychotics out of the White House?
Call me Dr. Strangelove but i’d rather have the joint chiefs of staff give ‘er a run and see how it’d shake out.
How much of our $500b DoD budget is to keep a rubber room around ghastly f**kups in the White House?
Don,
You mean Europe declined to parity with the US.
US GDP only passed England’s (England having about 1/4 or less population of US at that time)in 1925. England had just fought 4 years of war and bought most of the goods to do it from the US.
I’m agreed though, despite the best US sanctions used to prevent Britain’s manufacturers competing with those who contributed to US politicians (and I don’t deny that Europe messed up its own industries big time too) Europe should have secured its own defence.
The Kiwis need to take note. The Aussies though have been very good in participating in all US lead campaigns in the region. They’ve known for a long time that China would come visiting someday.
…naw, i’m all for the Constitution –but what are we gonna DO about ghastly f**kups in the White House? When does the tradition blow the planet out of orbit? THIS year, or next, or in 2020?
What are we gonna do?
buddy larsen – all we can do is remove Obama’s presidential power from the ‘ground up’, which is to say, by the public voices of the people and by the public elections.
We’ve been expressing our public voices in the Tea Party, Town Halls, FOX news, radio shows, blogs, internet…and rallies of the Tea Party, Glenn Beck’s Washington Rally..etc
We’ve been expressing our public elections just recently which saw the Democratic Party wiped out in the House, reduced in the Senate and moved into a state of in-fighting within the party and the WH.
We continue with both agendas and get rid of this WH with its unelected socialist czars, force the Democratic Party to purge itself of its radicals, and ..get rid of Obama. This is our task in this important next year..
Looks like the first response is for the US & Korea to conduct
carrier led military exercises in the Yellow Sea. (They shifted seas the last time in consideration of Chinese sensitivities.)
The best policy for countries around the world vs China should be to not allow China to get a lock on any mineral or technology. But rather to ensure that there are at least two other suppliers of the same thing.
@24 Habu: Do you see Russia and/or China as part of that new UN? Not sure either are “freedom-loving”, but they already have nukes. How do you handle them? Are you proposing non-proliferation 2.0?
buddy
I have always believed that Carter’s mission, whether out of malice or from the delusional belief that evil can reciprocate goodwill, is to knock the USA down a peg or two. He is still doing it today.
W: to answer your 2 questions, IMHO (1) nonproliferation is truly dead and (2) USA is able but *currently* unwilling to defend its allies. Regarding (1) the genie left the bottle long ago, and I think there was a nonlinear decay in the old state. That is, when only a few Big Guys had nuclear technology (reactors and/or weapons that reactors could enable) –US, USSR, Britain, Canada, China, France– it was much easier to control proliferation; or pretend to. Plus the technology was newer, less disseminated, less scaled-down to the Home Hobbyist level. But the trend was inexorable and accelerating. Israel, South Africa, India, Pakistan, Iraq (almost), Libya (kinda? are we sure not?), Syria (ditto), Norks, Iran. One might plot an interesting –and depressing– curve over time. So the real question under (1) is how, if at all, to manage the ongoing proliferation. Once everybody has a gun, is everybody safer? I think not. I think it will be a bimodal distribution, with a lot of sane thoughtful polite people and a few whackjobs. Who will occasionally need to be dealt with. Not a pretty picture.
As for (2), if the defense is conventional, then US would be overstretched in a hurry and would be very careful about jumping in. We’re already too busy and are burning out the forces we have. If the defense is nuclear, then sure we can offer the “umbrella;” but what in practice does that mean? Norks are showing us that it’s not a very precise instrument of policy, is it? The threshold of activation is so terribly high. Below that threshold the whackjobs can shell innocent fisherfolk and sink law-abiding vessels pretty much to their hearts’ content. But your question was not whether US had the ability to defend its allies, but whether it was willing to do so. With the current pResident, I think not. This joint naval exercise is just a show of toughness.
Of course, if the Norks decide to mix it up with the USS George Washington or one of its aircraft, all bets are off. I suspect the phone line between Beijing and Pyongyang is busy right now.
Final PS, one of the ships in the carrier group is USS Stethem. Isn’t he the Navy diver whom the PLO beat to death in an airline hijacking? Wouldn’t it be funny if his namesake got some shots at a terrorist regime…
NK has been on a Chinese leash since the Armistice was signed, China allowed NK to go Nuclear so it is time to bring China to heel, Japan, SROK and Australia need to be given the push to go Nuke and if china does not immediately bring NK inline and out of the rogue business then we should get Taiwan in a “secret” nuke development program, one China wakes up to after the fact, I think China will play every nice in a neighborhood where China could lose more then a hand playing the wrong game!
The cold war non-proliferation regime disintegrated with the Iraq conflict. The last 8 years have demonstrated that the NATO is not an effective and operable alliance and that US internal politics prevent effective US efforts. At this point, who would take seriously a US threat to invade even a pathetic Islamic country like Iran to dismantle nuclear weapons manufacturing capability, never mind a tough adversary like North Korea would likely be. No, proliferation is here and we voters better recognize it and demand our government act accordingly. It makes no sense to spend like we do on surface fleets and bases all over the world paying for the stability and territorial integrity of countries that hate us for it and wouldn’t lift a finger to help us. We can’t afford to carry the bill for international security anymore and one of the fundamental reasons for doing it the first place is gone. We are not preventing nuclear proliferation. We should beef up our deterrence (subs, anti-missile, stealth bombers etc) and get out of Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Bahrain.
I would suspect the Japanese have all the components for a very good nuclear weapon or two, all it will take is some assembly.
If Taiwan doesn’t have the very same un assembled components then they are fools.
Much like the homeowner who keeps a snub nose for that home invasion but doesn’t load it or brandish it until the time is right to defend your home, it can be assmebled when it’s obvious the bad guys are serious about killing you then used as a last resort.
Charles @ 37 — We have anti-terrorist kabuki theater in the TSA lines. Now we are going to have anti-NorK kabuki theater in the Yellow Sea?
Time for some out-of-the-box thinking.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that China is the only player who has stroke with the NorKs. Conventional wisdom is that China is using NorK as a stalking horse, or at least a deniable proxy.
Meanwhile, back in Obama’s Amerikka, the federal gov is out of money, the economy is in tatters, real unemployment is at Great Depression levels, and the natives are getting restless.
An intelligent President could take advantage of the current situation to cry halt to excessive Chinese imports — in the interests of national preparedness. Expand the battlespace, so to speak, and attack in a different direction.
The US needs to re-industrialize so that it can support the defense industries it needs without recourse to Chinese steel and Chinese computer chips. Reindustrialization would provide a real investment opportunity for the homeless hot money sloshing around the globe, would create US jobs, and would expand the economy. US technology transfers to Chinese aerospace and electronics would have to stop dead. Excessive self-imposed US industry-destroying regulation would have to be rolled back.
There would be no immediate impact, of course. But those long-term players, the Chinese, would realize that the NorK proxy strategy was beginning to backfire. They would move on to something else, and the Korean peninsula would calm down.
Will the Indians and the Australians be able to cobble together an alliance that can stand up to the Chinese push for hegemony?
We are long since passed the point where we might deter North Korea. The question now is, when will they invade the South and – if they genuinely have nukes – use them against Japan and the South? The only remaining course of action available to the U.S. is to strike the North Korean capital, their nuclear facilities, and the storehouse of their nuclear weapons. What used to be called a “decapitation strike”. Without public discussion, without warning, sudden and final. Otherwise, they will develop nukes, if they don’t already have them, and then will use them against South Korea. You cannot talk a rabid dog into calming down, you can only kill it to protect yourselves. Not the North’s people; the North’s leadership and nuclear project. But do it right, be competent. Then President Obama could truthfully say that he did the right thing and wasn’t worried about re-election. Oh, yes. We are still at war with the North. Only a truce was signed. So, don’t give me any grief about attacking a peaceful nation.
Wretchard’s characterization of much of the world as “clinging to hope”, because they cannot accept the alternative, is spot on. It is uncomfortable to contemplate evil, crazy men who are willing to use nuclear weapons to settle disputes and further their own cause. So one hopes that they are just bluffing, or acting in a childish manner, or could be dissuaded if we would only say the words they want to hear and give them some money. We can’t imagine that they would really do it. Suppose that Iran does attack Tel Aviv, or North Korea attacks the South (or Japan). In retrospect it would seem so obvious — they’ve threatened, warned, tested, rehearsed, and otherwise prepared the battlefield in plain sight. Our hand-wringing will begin, hearings will be scheduled, commissions appointed, investigative reporting undertaken, all to ascertain why we didn’t “connect the dots”, why our intelligence agencies “failed”, why our leaders “ignored” the signs, and so forth. And this trend will continue until the post-WWII security system finally collapses, and some new system emerges. I don’t know whether America will be sidelined in that new world order, but if I had to bet, I’d bet that America will find its soul again and we, along with a few key allies (all developed democracies), will forcefully impose a pax-democratica on the rest of the world. Remember the first stage is denial — but the second stage is anger. The foolishness and recklessness of the Islamacists and the rogues is intolerable in the long run.
Obama has shown he thinks best while on vacation with a golf club in his hand (and out of touch of all humanity);
So; When’s he leaving?
Several people have thrown out the idea that going to war with the Norks is something America cannot afford anymore. Balderdash.
Compared to cost of the Stimulus and the ongoing multi-trillion dollar gift/bailout of the Big Banks, a nuclear strike on the Norks is a very small, almost imperceivable drop in the bucket.
The big money in Iraq and the Stan has been the nation building. No need to do that in Norkland after a strike. Let the South Koreans pick up the pieces. Similar situation for Iran. Take out their nuclear facilities, take their oil fields and Kharg island and it’s actually a profitable venture. No need for nation building there too.
But to not deal with these rogues; Ah, there’s where the really big money goes out the window down the line.
Apparently the UN, in true corrupt form, is answering the N. Korean militancy with ‘more aid’. That’s right. More money. And do you know what Obama will probably do? The same.
What Obama ought to do is refuse more aid and insist that China, Japan and Russia – and S. Korea, confront N. Korea and insist on regime change to remove the dictatorship and enable a democracy and capitalism.
Both China and S. Korea are terrified of the economic implosion of N. Korea and the resultant massive migration of starving N.Koreans into their countries. But, the current tactic of N. Korea to refuse to modernize and enable its economy – and then, carry out some act of aggression to get the world to funnel millions of aid into it – to keep the people alive, and to thus maintain the dictatorship – is a deadend. The situation has to be confronted and stopped. Not by the US but by the regional powers in the area.
43 Sam – “We should beef up our deterrence (subs, anti-missile, stealth bombers etc) and get out of Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Bahrain.”
We definitely need to circle the wagons but while were at it, if non-proliferation is dead, why not instigate neo-proliferation?We might even spawn new “green” energies in the offing. What’s good for the goose is good for China and Russia.
45 K – “The US needs to re-industrialize…”
Wouldn’t that be a relief? The problem is the “not-in-my-back-yard” environmentalists think that industry is icky. According to them, we should instead all be politicians, lawyers, and first responders. I’d like to see environmental regulations in the US loosely pegged to the same environmental regulations that are applied to our imports. That way we’d be working with a level playing field. It is not fair to allow imports from China that do not use the EPA standards to compete in a market that must locally follow those standards. The smoke stacks over China eventually spew air on our golden coast.
You can’t help those who won’t help themselves, and that is certainly true of South Korea. They don’t even believe in themselves, and are going extinct with a birth rate lower than Itay’s.
South Korea is our ally only on paper. A flat out majority of its population believes America started the Korean War of 1950. Our alliance with South Korea is worse than useless, because it deprives us of the ability to act against North Korean nuclear proliferation.
IMO we should terminate our alliance with South Korea, withdraw all our forces from there, and then destroy North Korea (a smart bomb camapaign against its railroad tunnels & bridges, plus mining of its harbors, would do so within 90 days) to terminate its peddling of nuclear weapons to terrorists. We can’t destroy North Korea while nominally being South Korea’s ally.
The only reason North Korea still exists, i.e., didn’t collapse in the late 1990′s, was because a leftist South Korean government sent them billions of dollars of aid. They made this baby and should live with it. We should just get the hell out.
All our wars — WW1, ww2, Korea, Viet Nam, Bosnia — were started by Democrats. Clinton’s foreign policy enabled the 9/11 attacks. Democrats start wars by backing down when threatened until finally one day they do not back down and, voila, war! Major war!
Obama will backdown and give North Korea $100 billion in aid.
45. Kinuachdrach
Conventional wisdom seems to be that China is the only player who has stroke with the NorKs. Conventional wisdom is that China is using NorK as a stalking horse, or at least a deniable proxy.
………
No I don’t think that conventional wisdom is correct here.
Rather, as I’ve mentioned– North Korea is a bureaucratic bailick of the Chinese Military the PLA. The PLA is in competition with the CPC for power in China.
It is not likely that the PLA directs N Korean military activities. Rather, the Norks measure the scale of PLA ambition and power and use that as a parameter to guide their own provacations. It may well be that the Norks read the PLA extension of core interests as a green light to their own military to extort money out of south korea.
The work of west should be to delegitimitize the PLA as an agent of Chinese ambition because the PLA so far has brought China neither honor nor profit nor friends. In order for China to integrate peacefully into the world this must continue.
For more on the world and our place in it, check out The Bond Project at http://www.thebondproject.blogspot.com
You could paste that line into almost every post you make, whether it’s about North Korea, AQ, the economy, crime, AGW, unemployment, tax policy, race relations, the TSA…
We’re being ruled by people who lie to everyone, most of all themselves.
Text messaging, tattooed, metrosexual fatties, living on mamaFED, now close to 50% of the USA population, could care less what happens outside of their virtual reality space. Not a one has a clue where Korea is and couldn’t locate it on the globe even with the help of GoogleMaps. Never mind the fact that S.Korean peninsula is responsible for a good portion of their lifestyle from monster shipyards building deepwater drillships, giant electronic wafer fab houses, appliance manufacturers second to none, and a very,very successful automotive industry. China and Russia will have more effect on the playout than our nutless CinC with his ring kissing rules of engagement. If Obama rattles his teleprompter, China will simply take out the nearest aircraft carrier with one of their supersonic stealth antiship missiles that they tested a decade ago and Obama will apologise.
To those of you that voted for this inexperienced highly unqualified idiot as president did you ever consider the problems he could cause to our country and the world at large. One failure after another, and he hasn’t learned anything at all. Problem is your decision at the voting booth increased the danger to not only yourselves but the entire country. You deserve to be cursed for what you have done!
‘..defend our allies..’ – With this CiC? He doesn’t speak up nor defend his own family, pastor, Chicago friend/slumlord etc.,
Obama’s grandmother referring to her ONE instance of ignorance on race and Obama bringing it to the WORLD’S stage..!
Response to Reverend Wright’s hate-filled black theology rants – ‘That’s not the Reverend I know’ – and 53% of the country who’d voted MONTHS LATER bought it!
Tony Rezko, sitting in the clink, who’d received TENS of MILLIONS of gubmint dollars steered his way by then-Senator Obama. Whereas Obama received a Countrywide-like sweet real estate deal from Rezko.
Moral of the story: Don’t look up to, vote for an enigma..
The Hermit Kingdom in the sun
Would be Japan if Japs had won
But Russkies came and sawed in half
Now North is poor while fatted calf
Now lives in South where people quake
For fear the northern half will take
All that they’ve worked for all these years
But Hildebeast has quelled those fears
A stiffly worded note from us
Has made the North back off and thus
Will peace reign once again on earth
And questions like will Jayson Werth
Return to Phils with handsome yield
If not then who will play right field
Will once again come to the fore
As B Hussein annuls all war
Burma Shave
Ashen,
Department of the Navy (consisting of the Navy and Marine Corps) can, and have responded to S Korea and are assisting in their ‘exercises’.
The aforementioned group is not stretched as thin as the Army, not to mention we’ve MANY Camps, Forts on the parallel for 60 + years who CONSTANTLY practice battle, nuclear attack drills. For there’s NOTHING else to do on and ~the parallel!
Suffice to say, I truly hope the training is NOT implemented..
What happens next? Easy-peasy!
1) Obama makes burbling noises at the ChiComs
2) ChiComs ignore the interruption, continue laughing
3) Joe Biden suggests that “North Korea should just grow up!”
4) Obama offers concessions
5) S. Korea blows shit up, makes nasty faces at Kim
6) Kim “sends a few of his boys” around to make more demands
7) GOTO 1
Most of the comments here are street corner tough and consist of hot air because we are not about to do a darn thing and China and NoK both know it. If you want to go toe to toe with China economically then you are quite silly because not only do they hold our debt, but they now supply most of our basic products. Sure in a few months we could start re-industrializing and maybe crack out some stuff, but they are already industrialized and have a huge available workforce and army. So who to you think is going to win the conventional war ramp up? It work well against a tiny country of Japan with limited natural resources, but against China, not so much now that they have actual factories and workers in cities.
We can talk all the smack we want, but the truth is until we fix our financial house and re-industrialize we are a paper tiger. Our old allies are realigning with those they supply them with stuff as well, Europe dances to a Russian tone based on oil and gas pipelines. Japan isn’t so dumb to think that we are willing to cover them against China and Israel already knows they are on their own. You want to win back our place in the world then fix our national debt and put America back to making stuff. If you want to outsource our lives to China, then do nothing.
China is not dumb and have been around the block a few times, they only have to wait of our own decay to bring us down to our knees before them. We wanted to open them up to provide markets for our goods and now they have turned the tables on us. They own us and will continue to do so as long as we let them.
”If the United States cannot find an effective way to deter the aggressive behavior of North Korea, countries in Asia which have relied on the “international system” since the war must ask themselves two questions. First, is nonproliferation truly dead? Second, is America unwilling to defend its allies?”
(1) On the death of nonproliferation my answer is: No! The nonproliferation regime is less threatened today than it was when India and then Pakistan went nuclear. And, then the trend toward proliferation went into reverse when Libya was persuaded by Bush to abandon its robust nuclear program. For both technical and political reasons the threats to the nonproliferation regime are less today than they were in 70s and 80s
(2) On US willingness to defend allies, my answer is: temporarily lacking. Our allies have experienced other periods when anti-war democrats had sufficient control of Congress and/or the WH that our resolve to defend them was in serious question. We got through those all periods, albeit with damage. I think the stunning reversal of Obama’s popularity between 2008 and 2010 should signal to our allies that America’s resolve is likely to be restored.
Of course, because of our failures this year I think we can assume that our alliance with SK has been permanently damaged. We pay a real cost for our irresponsible periods.
(3) With regard to NK’s goals and motivations and why I think a clear assessment of the threat it poses to nonproliferation is not yet available at this time, I currently use three scenarios with which to check such data as I come across for best fit – NK scenario #1 assumes NK is China’s proxy, #2 assumes an evil empire, acting with confidence and conviction (“Ming the Merciless”), and #3 assumes a leadership with very limited skills in charge of an almost failed state.
If #1 tracks reality, then the real threat is from China, not NK, and proliferation becomes a special case of master arming vassal. Recent data supporting this scenario are the two state visits by Kim to Beijing this year and NK’s claims to be directly developing a staged thermonuclear device as their first nuclear weapon. Recent data against this scenario include the building of the very robust barbwire-topped fence along the border between China and NK in 2006; cutting of all transport links between China and NK for a period in 2008; substantial Chinese troop movements to the NK border in 2008; the very strong public protest made by China to the killing of 3 of its civilians by NK border guards last June, and recent statements by credible Chinese academics that NK has become a liability to China. On balance, the data appear to weigh against this scenario.
So, the issue seems to rest between scenarios #2 (evil empire) and #3 (unskilled losers). In support of #2 are (a) all the statements coming out of the regime in NK (which is not a credible source, but also not one to be entirely ignored) and from its supporters and (b) Dr. Hecker’s use of the word “stunning” to describe what he found on his recent visit. In my view, there is no more careful and credible source on nuclear issues on this planet than Dr. Hecker, and his use of that word implies to me that there is more to what he saw than the direct facts he reports. (I would not give the same weight to the same comments if they had been made by any other individual.) Without Dr. Hecker’s statement, I would find #2 to be a weak scenario.
NK scenario #3 is the one most accepted by pundits and the media in general – that the skill-set of the NK leadership is limited to a single diplomatic trick, and that they are kicking up a fuss as the only way they know to get support for their failed economy. There is, as one might expect, a great deal of data which supports this scenario, including the recent timeline (not included here in the interests of brevity) and we have to keep in mind that just because its popular among the media types, that does not necessarily mean its false. However, until we resolve the credibility of scenario #2, if we buy into #3 uncritically we risk waking up some morning to a very unpleasant surprise.
Kinuachdrach @ 45 said:
“The US needs to re-industrialize so that it can support the defense industries it needs without recourse to Chinese steel and Chinese computer chips. Reindustrialization would provide a real investment opportunity for the homeless hot money sloshing around the globe, would create US jobs, and would expand the economy.”
Shifting over to a FIRE economy was a grievous error. Our economy will not reboot until after we begin reindustrialization. Unfortunately there is the energy issue. I’m convinced that our leaders back in the late 1970s opted to deindustrialize and shift over to a globalism based FIRE economy because they saw Peak Oil coming. That response was an error. Peak Oil is real but the correct response should have been to convert from petroleum to nuclear power and synthetic petroleum from coal, i.e. maintain the industrial infrastructure. It’s still not too late to go down that road. Unfortunately it will be more expensive. In the mistaken process of shifting over to a FIRE economy, we destroyed considerable infrastructure and capital.
Annoy Mouse @ 52 said:
“We definitely need to circle the wagons but while were at it, if non-proliferation is dead, why not instigate neo-proliferation? We might even spawn new “green” energies in the offing.”
Annoy Mouse’s comment triggers one of my standard rants that we need to replace nuclear weapons that were based upon a Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy and replace them with clean-burning/low-fallout nuclear weapons that can actually be used in regional wars. As of today, our nuclear defense is a “paper-tiger” because it’s too powerful to actually be used. If we had nuclear weapons that we were prepared to actually use then the Nork/Iranians would be insane to pursue nuclear weapons technology. As it stands, all they’re really doing is seizing an opportunity by calling our bluff.
Steve DeMarcus @ 59 said:
“To those of you that voted for this inexperienced highly unqualified idiot as president did you ever consider the problems he could cause to our country and the world at large…. Problem is your decision at the voting booth increased the danger to not only yourselves but the entire country.”
Wrong forum. Folks at Belmont Club instantly saw Obama as a catastrophe. Moonbats lurk here but are promptly slapped down when they start barking. If you want to complain to the moonbats, you should take it to Daily Kos or Huffington Post.
Josh/7,
Don’t agree that that few nuke plumes cannot seriously hurt a nation, esp. USA. At issue is not material and personnel damage nor retribution, as much as financial collapse. There is a (now) old study of a small (terrorist) nuke in a major USA harbor causing in my extrapolation over $15 trillion in economic collapse in USA alone.
Does anyone think USA and to world would not tetter at the edge of existance after this? I don’t.
Pardon me, but my willingness to be taxed to keep our economic competitors safe has waned somewhat of late. The Cold War is over. Whatever happens with North Korea is far more a problem for South Korea and Japan than it is for the United States. After all we’re on the other side of the planet, roughly.
So let them sweat it not us. Let them spend vast sums arming up to defend against NK- and China too. And if war with NK comes let them pay the price in blood and treasure to make the world safe for whatever.
We’ve got enough troubles of our own that need solving.
Big trouble in little China.
He (Reagan) certainly kept us out of Beirut.
Really? Then who was President when the Marine Barracks were bombed at Beirut airport, Millard Fillmore?
Josh/7,
Sorry if this double posts; didn’t seem to take on the 1st attempt.
I don’t agree that a couple of plumes over USA can be minimized via limited material and personnel loss, nor retaliation. There is a least one (old now) study of a terror nuke in a major USA harbor. My est. of financial loss is about $15T to USA alone; most USA/world transportation stops for a good while. Who thinks USA can absorb these kinds of costs w/o tettering at the edge?
DR/71; –at least we got to see the New Jersey in action again –i believe she saved Walid Jumblatt –
30. Peter Boston
“Lest we forget there are 40,000 US troops on the DMZ. Even somebody as feckless as Obama cannot walk back from them although I suspect he would try.”
Remember Napoleon was good at leaving armies behind after a defeat. Politics in Paris was always more important & must be attended to. He shared with his army in Russia only because he was caught. Not as Crassus at Carrhae.
“I’m convinced that our leaders back in the late 1970s opted to deindustrialize and shift over to a globalism based FIRE economy because they saw Peak Oil coming.”
That’s certainly an interesting perspective. But I think you assign the leadership of the United States vastly more foresight than that leadership has ever exhibited which is roughly none at all.
I think our leaders back then and certainly now have been so thoroughly indoctrinated with globalism and free trade dogma that they are utterly unwilling to notice that free trade has disemboweled American industry and been a disaster for the American people. But since they are globalists and aren’t particularly loyal to the American people anyway perhaps they simply don’t care.
Which is reason number 3745566 why they need to be replaced.
if anyone at this point on this blog would like a gulp of fresh air: “Rand Paul” “Chris Christi” “Allen West” Rick Perry Mitch Daniels Tim Pawlenty Sarah Palin Michelle Bachmann oh, heck, what’d i start –now i have list 50 names –tellya what, you do it –you know ‘em –the “save our ass” crew –
“He (Reagan) certainly kept us out of Beirut.”
Err, got us out of Beirut? I guess he kept us from escallating our presence there which is what I would have done.
I thought we should have kicked some booty after that shameful loss. reagan instead shelled the hell out of the Bekah Valley and pulled out. He kept a cool head which was essentially my point.
61. Walt
…..
Burma Shave
This is a very appropriate ending to a lot of the so called reasoning for foreign policy action of the last 100 years. Little more than a jingle & an ad, all placed at the margins of a corn field or bull pen. Thank you, Walt
EWS/74; –George McClellan, i’m afraid a style mate of the current admin, in 1862, in order to get himself back to DC a few days early and get the jump on explaining to the press –and the president –what had just happened to him in the Seven Days Battle around Richmond, left the entire Army of the Potomac struggling hard just to get back to its embarkation point.
His story began with Lee having opposed with a 200,000 man army (Lee had 60,000 –split in several combat groups mostly out of battlefield communication due to being a day’s ride and more distant from each other).
Yes non proliferation is dead, and with the current administration in power we are unwilling to defend our allies, it has been this way since the left forced us to abandon South Vietnam. When the Democrats are in the White House our allies are on their own, and when the Republicans take power they try to stabilize things to war won’t break out until they regain power. The problem is that now things have spiraled out of control and the world is on course for a major war, one that will make WWII look like a pillow fight. In their quest to insure a one world socialist government the left has created a massive nightmare for all of us to live in.
Peter Boston, there are not 40,000 US troops on the DMZ. There are 19,755 soldiers, 8,815 airmen, 274 sailors and 242 Marines in the entire ROK.
United Nations Command Security Battalion – Joint Security Area has 40 U. S. personnel on the DMZ.
Camp Casey is 15 miles south of the DMZ.
Peak oil is in the same catagory as dangerous mann made global warming, the club of Rome’s prediction of us running out of everything 10 years ago, BSE and AIDS killing all of us, fluoride in water…
just another lefty crisis that wasn’t.
veracious @ 68: I don’t mean to minimize it, 9/11 did billions in damage and any nuke in a populated area would be at least that damaging and more distressing.
but for all that, Japan in 1945 survived two reasonably large (probably larger than terrorists are going to be able to field anytime soon unless they can steal from the old Soviet stockpile) nukes carefully placed. If they hadn’t decided to be sensible about it all, it might have taken a number more nukes to truly knock them out (which of course it turns out we did not really have handy, whether they knew that or not). And that was then, and the US is much larger, etc.
Just trying to offset a little the gentleman’s suicide club tone that often haunts such discussions.
Josh,
You’re making the mistake of assuming that the physical damage is the majority of the damage from an attack of this nature. The physical damage would be minuscule compared to the psychological affect that nuke attacks would have on economies, trade, etc. And the analogy to WWII Japan doesn’t hold water, either. Those came after extended periods of significant bombings (a number of which caused more physical damage and casualties than the atomic bombs), a submarine blockade that was setting the stage for mass starvation, etc.
Well, Obama can always sic Interpol on whoever pulled them Nork lanyards.
***
more on Start II, admin refuses once again to release negotiation records –esp after the recent NATO meeting in Portugal, where admin announced dramatic new agreements –but will not verify what they are –
Kyl apparently suspects Ellen Tauscher was brought in specifically to bind the state dept to some off-book missile defense limits, and he wants not a wave-off of the question but a look at the docs.
A dual track? One story for the citizens, but another understanding in the state dep’t –protected by ‘national security’?
(Hey, has this admin EVER had a loophole it didn’t drive a truck thru? I mean, if it hurts that old bad bitterclinger America?)
Anyhoo, the April preamble has a sentence about Russia being bound by treaty itself only if there are ‘no changes in underlying assumptions’ –
(sneaky, sneaky fine print –like the stim bill, obamacare, tarp, GM, oilspill, moratorium, ah, you name it)
Anyhoo, Kyl and othere are merely asking “WHAT underlying assumptions?”
Admin has agreed under Kyl’s pressure to ‘provide a briefing’ -short of a doc reading –but has not as of yet provided the name of the person who will get in touch with Kyl in order to have a plenary session to hammer out a deal on how to decide the detailed agreement of answering the question, “when is the briefing?”
***
all sounds like needlepoint, but USA could end up out of gear on missile-defense R&D while Russia catches up and passes us. Then what? Will they return our Start II favor, and give us a mulligan? FFFFAT CHANCE –WE are the ahistorical party here. AKA, the ‘mark’ or the ‘sucker’.
Keith @ 82 said:
“Peak oil is in the same category as dangerous man made global warming”
Much of the Global Warming thing is left-wing agitprop but Peak Oil is real. The important difference between Peak Oil versus Global Warming is Peak Oil has a track record, refer to:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Hubbert_US_high.svg
M. King Hubbert predicted US peak oil in 1956. As the linked plot shows, Hubbert’s prediction was almost spot-on. I would argue that Peak Oil has been driving global economics since the late-1970s.
If you want to learn more about Peak Oil, I suggest using google and follow the links. There’s lots of useful material about Peak Oil on the Internet.
Josh et al,
One final view on a couple of nukes effect. The fact that USA is bigger is (exactly) part of the point; with the rest being USA is intimately tied to the world economy. Being a major player and dependent on the world, means goods, they must transfer or else… goods, by the many million tons. Stopping it for a couple of months would shred our system.
Japan wasn’t tied to the world economy, esp. by the time of the bombs.
The answers, sadly, are “yes” and “yes”.
You make it sound as if America’s troops would be fighting alone if the Korean conflict (that was never resolved in the 1950s) flared again.
I fought with South Korean troops in Vietnam and if they are as tough as they were then, South Korea’s army of almost 700,000 troops would be fighting shoulder to shoulder with about 28,000 US troops against North Koreas 1,170,000.
In addition, there are other US troops closer to Korea than the US.
The news reported Obama ordered a US aircraft carrier to move closer to Korea. That aircraft carrier will not come alone. The navy task force that escorts and supports an aircraft carrier has a lot of firepower.
There will probably hundreds of cruise missiles, which have a range of several hundred miles and may be fired from aircraft and submarines.
There are three US airbases in Japan, one in Guam, one in Australia, one in Singapore, two in South Korea, and one in Taiwan. It’s safe to say that the US probably has more aircraft stationed within reach of Korea than the entire North Korean air force.
The US also has a large and efficient capacity to refuel aircraft in flight and move thousands of aircraft half way around the world in 24 to 48 hours.
Air power would be crucial to a victory. In 2007, North Korea had about 1800 aircraft in their air force and South Korea had 538.
However, America has more than 18,000 military aircraft and many are stationed in bases along the Pacific Rim close to the area. The US also has eleven aircraft carriers. The US also has aircraft that is more advanced and superior to North Korea.
The reason for South Korea not striking back may be because Seoul, their capital is about 25 miles from the DMZ, and North Korea has enough artillery and missiles in hardened mountain sites to destroy the city and kill and injure millions.
Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, on the other hand is almost a hundred miles from the DMZ. Of course, that will not protect it from US cruise missiles fired from US navy ships.
Several aspects of the U.S.-R.O.K. security relationship are changing as the U.S. moves from a leading to a supporting role. In 2004 an agreement was reached on the return of the Yongsan base in Seoul–as well as a number of other U.S. bases–to the R.O.K. and the eventual relocation of all U.S. forces to south of the Han River. Those movements are expected to be completed by 2016. In addition, the U.S. and R.O.K. agreed to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Korea to 25,000 by 2008, but a subsequent agreement by the U.S. and R.O.K. presidents in 2008 has now capped that number at 28,500, with no further troop reductions planned. The U.S. and R.O.K. have also agreed to transfer wartime operational control to the R.O.K. military on April 17, 2012.
Any advantage North Korea would have would be in the early days of the war while they killed millions of innocent south Koreans and did all they could to destroy South Korea’s industries and economy. For sure, within a few days to weeks, large numbers of naval and aircraft would be in the region pounding the “s—” out of North Korea’s army.
What happened during the two Iraq wars would happen again.
The US would probably also not be alone. There’s Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan. Thailand might send military and so might Singapore. For sure, these countries would offer support to refuel and rearm US military aircraft on the way to the war zone.
As for China entering the war as they did in the 1950s, I doubt it. China has too much to lose and the leadership is not the same as when Mao was in power.
I do not think China cares if North Korea goes down and the South takes over.
Josh, 9/11 dollar damages were not billions but trillions –about a trill or 1.5 direct, another 2 trill in quantifiable indirect, and lord knows how much in opportunity costs –for example the P/E ratios of USA companies have never recovered –and the negative hole of investment and ipos that went elsewhere on basis that USA was under terror attack. Then you measure out some number for 300 mm citizens’ quality of life and confidence in future (P/E’s offer a clue if one wants to attempt quantification).
And if you want to slip off into metaphor and symbolism, in the ten years since the World Trade Center was vaporized, it is world trade (with accompaniment by Barney’s Fanny) malfunction that has got us in so much foreign financial interdependence finagling trouble –
“However, America has more than 18,000 military aircraft and many are stationed in bases along the Pacific Rim close to the area. The US also has eleven aircraft carriers. The US also has aircraft that is more advanced and superior to North Korea.”
No-one questions that the US could crush the North Koreans like a bug. The question is whether the US has the will to do so.
The likelihood is there will be no crushing; instead, the Kim family will get their Danegeld — from the US directly, using funds ultimately borrowed from China.
Tolkien had a wonderful line that went something like — ‘The smoke of that burning rose high in the air and was seen by many watchful eyes’. What happens in Korea will not stay in Korea but will influence the actions of many parties with hostile intents towards the West.
“The threat from north of the DMZ is formidable. North Korea boasts 100,000 well-trained special-operations forces and one of the world’s largest biological and chemical arsenals.”
we need to be strong and stout, but we do not need to completely miss on predicting China, as we did when they came across the Yalu river in the 50s. We need to proceed on the basis of China being 100% unpredictable –because really, they are –a short sharp incident war against the USN (we had one against Iran in April 1988 under Reagan that more or less sank the Iranian navy and no one YET knows about it) might be just a ploy inside some domestic thing or other going on in the hidden kingdom.
bl @ 90 et al: well, including the wars in Iraq and Stan certainly a trillion, and maybe you’re right that even the direct effects were more like a trillion, and yet … well, we’re still here, and we can’t blame *everything* that happened since on Obama bin Nidal, post hoc propter hoc.
actually, the real estate bubble caused by too low interest rates held there in part to help pay for 9/11 and Iraq war … but that still doesn’t really speak to the physical impact and what a comparable nuke would do.
I hope that the main effect of a small-scale nuke attack on the US mainland or fleet, would be a disproportionate response on Iran, Norko, or Mecca, we can roll some dice to choose the target if we’re the least bit uncertain. Even if it turns out to be a Chinese attack on us, what the heck, the light’s better over here. Sometimes a provocation is very convenient.
–
And if anyone wants to argue that a nuke attack on the US would damage our trading partners even more than it would damage the US directly – yes, that might be quite true. Reason enough for our trading partners to try to protect us, you’d think.
Josh, if only we could know if or if not that China war is inevitable –if it IS, then –why are we waiting, with the power gap closing at an increasing rate? Izzat your question? Eeek –but it IS a question. But only off that word ”inevitable” –which has an absolute meaning –there is no ‘partially inevitable’ –
I think Lloyd (89) has it about right. The US could certainly defeat North Korea, if “defeat” means overwhelm militarily. But Seoul would also be destroyed, and it is difficult to think of any US president who would have been willing to take responsibility for starting a war which killed half the people in Korea and left the rest homeless, starving refugees. Jackson, maybe.
It is tempting to think about destroying the Nork nukes, but unless you can destroy the artillery at the same time, Seoul would be history. The best bet — and it is a pretty good one — is to wait for the Norks to implode. Of course, they may well explode at the same time, but that won’t be our fault.
The ROKs have the industrial & technological capability to quickly produce and field C-RAM systems in sufficient quantities to significantly reduce Nork tube artillery effectiveness.
Seoul has been under the guns for decades. You don’t think the ROKs have some pretty ingenious counter-battery tricks up their sleeves?
Loyd – “I do not think China cares if North Korea goes down and the South takes over.”
I sure hope you are right about that though I can’t help but think that NK has been a useful proxy to China. Totalitarian regimes are particularily vulnerable to democracy on thier borders. More likely the Chicoms seem like they are getting ready to kick us out of thier pond. They clearly do not repesect the international boundaries that have been drawn up. My illegal alien leftest, German lesbian friend seems to think that our presense in the South China Sea are a provocation to them.
usa can’t seize strategic initiative because usa is gullivered re political initiative. you’d think some clever young associate in the state department or cia would by now have come up with a semantically effective way of challenging north korean artillery disposition vs. soeul.
westerncanadian @ 8
Worry not my prairie home companion. In a land of perpetual referendums, what could go wrong.
Nuke up I say.
Not unlike the power,phone and highways departments, we need only pace off 33 1/3feet back from the centre line of the north pole and jam em in like tree planters on meth.
I also have it on the highest authority that Mexico is making the move. (I’d tell you how I know but then I’d have to go through a long winded explanation and power points involved and that can get real ugly real fast…sooo, no)
Yeah, those Mexicans have been looking at us funny for far too long. Yes the have.
I don’t think they can throw one far enough. Never mind a couple of hundred.
Oh and those snowbirds in the Winnebagos dotted across the landscape from Fort Lauderdale to Santa Barbara, the ones with the rotating satellite dishes…just trying to get Red Green.
Proliferation, harbinger of a bright future.
US cannot attack NK. If we did, China would send ‘volunteers’ as they did fifty years ago. NK is China’s client state.
Truman was wrong to stop McArthur back then. Sending those ‘volunteers’ was an act of war. China was not then our ally, nor are they today.
i don’t think china would send in. possible diversionary actions, active measures certainly, cyber, economic. maximum chaos during and after eradication of regime. unpredictable results of peace treaty defining postwar status viz china and reunification (if nk’s reason for being was ultimately as buffer against invasion from the east & two-front anti communism). china would not attack because usa telegraphs its discrete strategic objectives; no rational chi-com polit narkom would seriously believe usa intends a beijing sack. usa is constrained to present strategic disposition, which is barely tenable, politically, as is.
easier for shanghai co-op prosperity sphere to exact revenge from victory. for example: what justification for usa deployments in pacific rim if last vestige of stalinism extinguished? maybe korean “stablization force” could be justified, but japan? guam? wouldn’t it be easy, post-nk, for these to be re-characterized as forward deployments of aggression rather than containment? ultimately japan retains its sovereign right to acquiesce, as in germany. but kohl steered terms of german reunification primarily with large unaccountable infusions of DM; won doesn’t have the power. relationships different.
Let me just point out, let South Korea defend itself, it should be able to do a pretty good job. Let Japan chime in, I expect they should see it in their interest. And then, let us come in to support them both, as necessary. With luck, that necessary wouldn’t be all that much, unless China (or Russia) decided to back the Norks – but why would they? Clearly the Norks are crazy. Both Russia and China are far more consumer-oriented now than one or two or three generations ago. Why mess up the world economy? Why mess up their own lives?
So we’re sending the aircraft carrier George Washington into the Yellow Sea, which we have stayed out of ever since the Chinese told us to stay out last July. Expect a Chinese Song-class submarine to “pop up” within torpedo range of the Geo. Washington, just like the one that popped up next to the Kittyhawk a few years ago.
“The United States is willing to defend its allies.”
Evidence please!
Russia invades Georgia, the USA doesn’t lift a finger. Iran threatens various allies (in one degree or another) in the ME, China and it’s half tame, ill bred mongrol N. Korea routinely attack and kill American allies.
The whole idea of America defending it’s allies died when Carter wouldn’t even defend America!
It isn’t through a lack of military capability, but a lack of will.
To quote Vincent the Count Montgomery of Alamein; “It doesn’t matter what your capabilities are if you haven’t the will to use them”.
The US military has the capability to make N.Korea, Iran, Syria, et. al. a memory. Fortunately for a whole slew of despots, tyrants, dictators, President for Life, etc. the US military answers to US politicians. I seriously doubt there is enough hair in congress to fur a single testicle. Which works out since there are none to be furred.
“telling them if they attacked the US, it would be a hundred years before anybody next saw where North Korea used to be. That still holds, at least we still have the disproportionate power to make it hold. And the same goes for Iran, etc.”
Josh, that statement is delusional. I’m surprised you fell for it.
Answer me this…. How do we now who popped that nuke in San Francisco Bay? Or off Turtle Bay? With 2 ( Norks and Pakistan) rouge states having nukes and a 3rd about to, there is literally no way of knowing who did the dirty deed.
Where is the politician that lacks the sand to order a pre-emptive strike going to find the sand to order a retaliatory strike against a SUSPECT? Granted, if we know who it is, MAD might work. That is why whoever does it will leave no evidence. If the clues are in a radioactive cloud drifting across the Atlantic, who will step up and start nuking those who MIGHT be involved?
s @ 106: How do we now who popped that nuke in San Francisco Bay?
stoicheion, I answered that already.
If a sadistic prison warden has a doomsday button in his office, and one day the prisoners revolt and are beating down his door, he knows they’re gonna draw and quarter him, he will push that button and take them and the rest of the world and himself too out –becuz –it beats getting drawn and quartered. I think this makes mullocracy and Kim klan both MUCH more dangerous and in need of neutering at the atomic level.
Jimmy Carter, prominent in the rise of both, agrees but clearly from the nether side of the looking glass, as clearly he’s been in league with Satan since some point prior to that bunny wabbit which twied to dwown him.
That incident, which some believe cost him re-election, is exceedingly mysterious. A rabbit attack on anybody? That’s miracle enough, but on the president? What would a sign and portent BE, anyway?
So, all we gotta do is start undoing all the way back to 1976.
Why mess up their own lives? said the scorpion…
…wait, 10 year interregnum, the 80s. A rabbit just told me
the soviets 2.0 must be pretty amused at their role. declaring “colossal danger” of escalation – as if they didn’t know, and possibly direct or agree to, exactly what happened and is going to happen. maybe the upcoming start treaty ratification proceedings will be interesting after all.
buddy, Iranian craziness may be an existential issue for Israel. It is not for us, fortunately. This puts us in a tight spot for our friend Israel. But even Israel hesitates to lash out at Iran in advance of events. These are world-class tough questions. By far the most probably course, triple-net, is for Israel to wait for an actual attack, and then respond with all they have. IMHO. As for us and the Norks, again, we should back our friends but do not have to lead, or at least should try really hard not to. Yes that leaves some leeway in which the crazies can operate, but really, seriously, what are the options. It’s a less than perfect world.
108 BL – “What would a sign and portent BE, anyway?”
That the era of the rodent has come and Jimah coont doo nutin about it.
link from Drudge, posters at gizmodo reporting that full-body scanners have been turned off and TSA is not groping anybody.
http://gizmodo.com/5698536/fliers-claim-tsa-have-deactivated-body-scanners
If true it will be interesting to see how it happened and how long it lasts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg
Even heavy armor is no protection from a thumping menace.
Hanson’s nice take on this: “Insanity is a force multiplier in nuclear poker.”
J/112; i see your point –really –it’s a good one –i think –if maybe a leeeetle bit too practical –too realpolitik –to be a good acknowledged policy. minor point, the Iranians ain’t crazy, the mullahs are.
b/115, Gadzooks, thee verye onne! anyhoo, i’ll shaddup ’bout Carter –spilt milk and all. and i wish his Habitat for Huge Manatee all the luck in the world –
***
b/118; and it was rats what carried the boob onik plague
The day of the rodent is long in the tooth.
Wretchard says: “The real price of bringing down the hegemon is that it will thereafter be a case of every man for himself. The Left has often wanted America off the world stage. Now they may be like a dog that has finally caught the car.”
But that’s assuming they have a problem with the deaths of millions. This has Never been a problem for the Leftist Mindset, as the twentieth century amply demonstrated. . . .
It’s so hard to make the mental shift to that Mindset. There’s so much of decency and human scale that you have to just — jettison when predicting what the Left will do.
Wretchard
I must take issue with your characterisation of Percival, for it repeats old – and we now know outdated – shibboleths.
He was an able man,a splendid COS but always, always a 2IC. He excelled at this. He was miscast in the position of GOC Malaya and there is evidence that Brooke knew it.
The fundamental issue was that Churchill underestimated the Japanese and tried to run a bluff against them. The Japanese, being no fools, had thoroughly penetrated Malaya and Singapore, and knew the British were running a bluff.
On top of that, they had developed entiely new military capabilities (such as that represented by the Mihoro, Genzan, Yokosuka and Kisarayu air groups) with which to surprise the Allies.
Percival, deliberately denied the equipment and reinforcements he repeatedly asked for, never really had a prayer when the Japanese knew it was all bluff. Percival did very well in the huge infrastructure development program to service the forces sent, his appreciation of strategic vulnerabilities was spot-on and so forth.
What is instructive is the performance comparison between percival and Macarthur. In that comparison, Macarthur is very much second-best to Percival. Of course, he removed himself from the Philippines complete with maid and treasure and was good enough to later learn at least something from the wreck he had created.
Percival stayed with his men and did not have that chance.
In terms of performance in December 1941 to February 1942, the name you should have used was perhaps that of macarthur, and not Percival.
MarkL
Canberra
Beverly…
You’re not dealing with mindsets….
Rather, it’s the reverse:
SET MINDS.
QED.
IWIncredulous@16 mentioned the glib analysis of “A ditzy broad on Fox” — I reckon I heard that same b’cast. A detail Mr. Incredulous omitted was the newsreader’s reminder that when Kim Il-sung was fixin’ to pass the reins of power to Kim Jong-Il, the current NK leader, he set off a bunch of similar provocations. The reasoning she trotted out was that these were supposed to show the NK public that the NEW ruler would continue to be bold and adamantly hostile to the foe.
“Nothing to worry about; just the same old crazy as ever.”
Well, Israel has shown astounding restraint on many occasions, when provoked by murderous attacks.
Republic of Korea has shown similar restraint and steadfastness in response to countless acts of war by the North Koreans, including the two recent outrages.
I pray to God they don’t pay a much higher price for their self-restraint.
It’s easy to imagine that countries long accustomed to depending on the U.S. as the ultimate guarantor of their sovereignty.
In the aftermath of the US elections on 02 November 2010, other countries paying attention to such arcanities as, oh, the line of succession, may have noted certain changes coming.
You can be damn sure they know a hell of a a lot more about our government’s rules and procedures than do most U.S. citizens. They’re fully aware the new Speaker’s antagonism to the pResident’s policies will further enfeeble a “leader” whose last documented accomplishment was top grades in coloring and getting to the bathroom in time” in his daycare class in Jakarta.
And there’s the Dem’s humiliation nationwide, which was the occasion for Madam (astoundingly apt title!) Pelosi’s tumble from grace.
Third in line to the Presidency in the event of the incapacity of both the elected President and Vice-President, the Speaker of the House will no longer be a Democrat with the power to browbeat, bully, and bribe a Democrat legislative majority to advance the Marxist-in-Chief’s agenda.
It might be encouraging to remember when then-Vice-President Albert Gore attended the 1997 Kyoto meetings and gave memorable speeches with toplofty words and phrases of praise. When both VP “No-Controlling-Authority” and President “I-Can’t-Control-My-Willie” signed the document, lots of people figured the fix was in. (Of course, Bill and Al knew that their signatures didn’t commit the country to that document.)
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate, to which the U.S. Constitution gives the authority to ratify or reject treaties, had overwhelmingly passed a blanket rejection of any climate treaty that “would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States.”
Allies and enemies may each wonder “Where is this going?” But at least the current policies of betrayal of one group and surrender to the other will be a little less certain.
Hurray.
Maybe.
Canberra…
If you look for it…
There is a mighty little tome WRT Malaya.
Dang, if my Google skills were better…
Anyhow, the author well establishes that Percival’s very own local Defense Minister — a brainiac — laid out the entire Japanese invasion program BEFORE the campaign began.
The problem was that the DM of Malaya was a WOG — a genius — but a WOG.
Percival spent a fair amount of intellectual energy putting his DM in his place.
As the campaign evolved Percival was humiliated beyond measure.
—–
The shocking unforeseen campaign WAS entirely foreseen — by a British Colonial!
—–
Percival was a LOUSY general. After September 2, 1945 he was shunted into the ‘history closet.’
Allied intelligence before the war hit ‘em makes ‘epic fail’ look like a compliment. Singapore’s seaborne supply was contingent on the Repulse and Prince of Wales, both proceeding into the war zone without air cover, the carrier meant to be with them having suffered minor damage en route to rendezvous with said capital ships, in a collision in harbor at Kingston Jamaica –and simply being dropped off the flotilla. Fatal error, would not’ve made it had the Allies had any dope on the range of the Japanese land-based bombers.
Weakening the economy. Making us indebted to China to a new unprecedented degree. Canceling weapon systems (e.g. F-22). Alienating allies and bowing to adversaries. Idle chatter as faux diplomacy. Secret “understandings” as treaty side-bars. And soon, demonstration that we will not respond to the most recent aggression.
As PB said @40, whether out of malice or delusion, this was the path taken in 1976 and it is being multiplied post-2008. It is getting harder and harder to see it any other way.
Goodbye Locke, Hello Hobbes.
Euro collapse.
Firehand has link to good youtube rant by a British anti euro MEP speaking in the European Parliament chamber:
http://elmtreeforge.blogspot.com/2010/11/wow.html
I think I’d better visit the bank today and send my few savings to England.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AO0HG20101125
“no danger of Eurozone breakup” –got that, Keith?
***
Mrs O’Leary: “Hmm, well, i do wish the cow hadn’t kicked the kerosene lantern into the hay bales, but on the other hand, i don’t want to spread panic. Maybe i’ll just retire to the kitchen and have a spot of tea, and see if the fire goes out on its own.”
“Once everybody has a gun, is everybody safer? I think not.”
You are many times wrong.
First, when you use the word everybody, you mean society. The body politic. Society is much better off when it is armed. For many reasons.
Even if you misused ‘everybody’ and you meant ‘individuals’, you are still wrong. Nothing is better for individuals then having the means to defend themselves.
I think you missed the point of Richards argument. I as understood it, the fact is that when the Police stop showing up to protect citizens from crime, the citizens need to arm themselves, or accept the crimes.
So that puts you in the category of willing victim. I’m not with you on that. Not at all.
I think the solution for Nuclear proliferation is to allow EVERY state nuclear weapons. I understand that this will lead to the use of nuclear weapons. I also understand the nuclear weapons will be used in the future, as they have in the past, no matter what We ( the royal we) do.
The question you propose is ‘does every nation/state have the right to defend itself?’ The answer is ‘it doesn’t matter’. Any nation state that doesn’t defend itself will be destroyed. That makes the question of ‘rights’ silly.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mullen said he thinks ‘the incident is tied to the Nork succession process’ –and –splat –that was that.
I’m sure the villagers, at the funerals today, are comforted. None of them will think, “Gee, if the succession lasts ten years, we’ll ALL be dead” –or, “OMG, dunno how much of this succession i can TAKE!”
Curtis LeMay, OTOH, would’ve likely said “I don’t give a flying frig what’s going on with the Nork succession, it’s the goddamn artillery fire that’s bothering ME!”
Stoicheion #128: I can’t disagree with your analysis, but I will apologize for having not expressed myself better, and thus leading you down the wrong road. It is the right of every individual to defend himself; to protect his life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. It’s more than a right, it’s a duty: because I don’t want to have to go do my neighbor’s work for him. Same applies for nation-states. What I meant to say, and mangled badly, was that the resulting condition –mutual armed equilibrium– is not perfectly stable. There will be trouble. Nutjobs will overstep. Even “rational” actors will misread, miscalculate, succumb to temptation, run out of good exit moves. So we can’t expect “perfection.” But it beats the alternative (of everyone lacking a given type of gun, in this case nukes). Because that alternative is even more unstable. The tendency to cheat will not disappear. And those who cheat, and hide their steps, will include the nutjobs while excluding a good portion of the “honest citizenry.” Who will, as you say, wake to find themselves completely screwed.
So at bottom we are in agreement: I think. It’s a hard world, and there is nobody who can (or should) do for us what we must do for ourselves. As I said before: si vis pacem, bellum preparat.
Cheers.
K/126; i dunno anything about Nigel Farage, but, mercy sakes, did he EVER gut the whole Euro project –in 2 minutes there’s nothing left of it but a roomful of confused old guys who believe every word Farage has just said –but cannot let on that they do –you can see them fairly swelling, like self-loathing balloons.
Buddy Larsen #131: “…you can see them fairly swelling, like self-loathing balloons.” Brilliant.
oMan, we are in agreement then. “If you want peace prepare for war” is one of the oldest ‘truths’ known to mankind. I find it fascinating that it has to be relearned every generation.
It annoys me at the same time.
Does electing the same old fools that make the same old mistakes evidence that democracy ( consensual rule) is a failure? Should America consider a Constitutional Monarchy instead? A constitution to protect individual rights and a Monarchy to ensure consistency in Foreign affairs? Or would hanging 99% of the State Department do?
Stoicheion #133: Dude, I would start with hanging 99% of the State Department. Actually, that’s inefficient. You could hang maybe 10% of them pour encourager les autres. More generally, when you separate action and consequence you get risky behavior. If the diplomatic community had to eat its own cooking, it would quickly learn. Or die at ground zero of whatever mess it had made. Either way, it’s a win.
stoicheion @ 133 – Heard somewhere that we were intended to be a representative republic. Others with more knowledge need to weigh-in on this subject. But the idea was to send wise representatives to HQ, then those wise folks would select a responsible & learned one to be CO in-charge. That way, it would be less likely that the common man would elect someone who promises to shovel greater largesse from the treasury, thus ruining the nation.
Seem like we have devolved to chosing between two poor options by popular vote.
A constitutional monarch’s job is to be the garnish on a plate of turds.
Under the British (unwritten) constitution the monarch reads speeches prepared by the elected .gov and signs everything that reaches her desk. The last Monarch to refuse to sign a law was Victoria, she couldn’t get her head around the idea of lesbians actually existing and refused to sign until references to lesbians were removed from the laws banning sodomy and setting ages of consent.
I like the argument for an elected privvy counsel and president as the first estate in a 3 way division of powers, rather than either a single individual as president with exec powers or a single chinless first-born with no powers at all to balance abuses.
“Puffed up baboons”
The more I see of baboons, the more humans remind me of them, squabbling and screeching away.
I wonder if the Kim family has baboons up its family tree?
Looks like the Irish politicos forgot to write any paycut or loss of perks for themselves into the austerity plan (how forgetful?).
The Gov is not allowing a vote on the plan
Fienne Gael has said it will renegotiate much of the plan after the election – so it is meaningless until then.
The plan assumes growth in GDP – fat chance!
9% yield on Irish bonds today.
The yoyo is screwed.
Looks like North Korea is getting everything it wanted. From the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)- “South Korea has now ordered the evacuation of the islands near the border with the North.”
(source: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3075034.htm )
And as such, South Korea loses a bit of sovereignty, Kim Jong-un gets his big welcome onto the national scene and all the people in charge in the west who wrung their hands, cowered and dithered will now be able to say how their deliberate and careful approach prevented a calamity.
How careful is North Korea when it comes to provocations? Is there any step that they can take that would invite a truly stern response? Can they just keep chip-chip-chipping away?
Looks like North Korea is getting everything it wanted. From the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)- “South Korea has now ordered the evacuation of the islands near the border with the North.”
So, the US Justice department has abandoned half of Arizona to Mexican gangs.
“South Korea has now ordered the evacuation of the islands near the border with the North.”
Eastasia – 1
Oceania — 0
Cooley concedes the California AG race to San Francisco DA Kamala Harris whose main concern is not executing anybody and pursuing ecological justice, thinks it’s her job to persecute oil companies. Hey Norks, come shell Los Angeles, I think we’ll evacuate in short order.
@138 A Nobody: I don’t think Norks are particularly careful. How can they possibly gauge how far is too far, when all they’ve gotten for the past 50 years is one groveling concession after another? So in a sense this system (of push and shove) lacks any control parameters: how much push will elicit a shove, with lots of empirical readings. So we’re really somewhere beyond Pluto in terms of “managing” the situation.
I wonder if the South Korean government will extend the evac plan to include Seoul. Right now their population is an effective hostage to the whimsy of the Norks. Suppose the Norks decided to shell Seoul –just a few shots, now and then. Accompanied by tirades of abuse for the South having allegedly violated some Nork expectation of groveliciousness. After how many neighborhoods went up in smoke, after how many hospitals were choked with dead and dying civilians, would the South finally declare a “red line” had been passed?
I think we’re pretty close to that; the only real constraint is whether such moves would somehow add meaningfully to the Norks’ status or heap of bargaining chips.
When the end comes, it will be quite sudden and very, very violent.
Nonproliferation died the day Bill Clinton bombed the Serbs. Every nation in the world immediately noticed that this was possible ONLY because the Serbs lacked nuclear weapons. The Serbs had been America’s allies through two world wars. This meant that nobody was safe from a rogue US president unless their country had nuclear arms.
You can’t hug a child with nuclear arms, but you sure can PROTECT your children that way, and the whole world knows it.
Evacuating the islands is an uncertain indicator. It could be a sign of a capitulation or it could be evidence of an imminent escalation of the conflict. If South Korea was anticipating further combat operations the first thing to do would be to evacuate civilians. We need to look for evidence that air defense systems and counterbattery are on a higher state of alert or that measures are being taken to protect the civilian population of Seoul. While that may not be likely in any given case it is possible and will have to happen eventually.
If high level consultations, leading to real military coordination, happen among Australia, India, The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea then that would be the signal to the Chinese that the DPRK has gone to far. Given the antipathy between Korea and Japan the Chinese know that they have a lot of room to work with before their victims will cooperate to contain them. Once that barrier is broken, and the withdrawal of the United States may force its former clients to cooperate, the ability of China to isolate and bully, whether directly or by proxy, will decline dramatically.
It’s one pm where I am, Thanksgiving Day, and it doesn’t look like there will be a new post today. So I wish everyone a belated Happy Thanksgiving!
THANKSGIVING 2010
The turkeys mill about the pen
Each turkey tom and turkey hen
The turkey sentries loose and lax
They do not see the sharpened axe
Oh dear
HAPPY THANKSGIVING!
Happy Thanksgiving, Walt, and to all the other Belmont Clubbers.
happy Thanksgiving
keep me a glass of wine
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Still two hours before feast time here in NV, but the wonderful odors of the season fill the house.
OT: Obama tells us he is “thankful for the privilege of being our President.” Are there no bounds to this man’s vanity? F
Happy Ganksthiving to all. Even you worthies of Oz and elsewhere! The Belmont Club is a particular reason for giving thanks. W, you and all your people rock.
Wretchard:
The actions and inactions of all parties here willhave wide repercussions:
1. North Korea has demonstrated that one can carry out acts of war against American allies, sink their ships,bombard and kill their civilians, and America will not lift a finger to help. Of course, Israel has known this for years, being constantly attacked by Hamas & Hezbollah and being told to make concessions and “not use excessive force” in defending her citizens. Now, South Korea is in the same boat, and one should not be surprised to see Iran, Libya, Al-Qaida, and others acting more aggressively and with more confidence. Obama has made the USA a paper tiger.
2. American security promises are now worthless. Every country must now decide to either appease and accomodate aggressors as South Korea appears to be doing, or seek out alliances with other great powers. Any hope of Israel accepting a US alliance in exchange for territorial concessions will now (hopefully) be impossible.
3. South Korea apparently lacks the will to take effective actions on her own. A non-nuclear state clearly cannot compete with a nuclear state no matter what other capabilities she may have. Every state concerned with her own survival will draw appropriate conclusions. I do not know if Japan or Australia will develop nuclear weapons, but I wont be completely surprised if other countries (Vietnam? Singapore?) do. In the Middle East, I will not be surprised to see an Egypian bomb, a Saudi bomb, and so on.
66. Eggplant. I’m convinced that our leaders back in the late 1970s opted to deindustrialize and shift over to a globalism based FIRE economy because they saw Peak Oil coming.
The economic shift in the US was due to a number of policies and issues that that had nothing to do with the mis-applied, petro-engineering concept. Those causes included:
• Rise of environmental technocrats,
• Union interference in the post-WWII economy (see Bethlehem Steel,)
• Over-emphasis on credentials & pseudo-scholarship at universities,
• De-emphasis of trade schools,
• Short term corporate planning that minimized CapEx and emphasized quarterly gains,
• Labor arbitrage with Asia & So.America,
• Failed War on Poverty that hobbled urban communities,
• and, in distinct contrast to ‘peak oil’ hobby horse, falling oil prices in the 80′s that remained stable throughout the 90′s.
OT,
buddy larsen,
I have a reprise of a conversation we had in 2005. Here:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2010/11/man-for-all-seasons-reprise.html
Back then I told you the TSA (or something like it) was coming. And of course you said I was being a hysterical old lady. It can’t happen here. It has happened here.
b @ 151…
Well said.
The oil market is dominated by politics not economics.
Namely, the Hulbert assumptions WRT oil discovery are entirely wrong: Russia, Mexico and others prohibit best practices. Under no circumstance will Moscow permit Big Oil ™ to profit.
Case in point: British Petroleum.
Mexico refuses to explore for oil under the lands and seas nearest to Texas. She also enacted a limit on oil sales to the US. Paranoia is the reason.
———
The economics of mining operations dictate that further exploration is uneconomic once viable reserves extend beyond seven to ten years. Deposits not yet found are not even pursued once market ‘saturation’ has been achieved.
Now it is a fact that Chevron, in 1938, found a staggering amount of oil under Saudi Arabia. But the intent was to merely find oil to meet prospective demand in Asia. By the late 1950′s additional discoveries — which came easy, as infill reserves — depressed the price of crude oil. The Seven Sisters used these fresh discoveries to cram down the prices paid to the big oil exporters. This action triggered a counter action: OPEC was formed by Venezuela and Iran. Kuwait and KSA were brought on board right away. They resolved to stop exploring for oil and generally doing what ever it took to get prices back up. In the event, it took the departure of Texas from its perch as the swing producer ( and the Texas Railroad Commission ) to get cartel control of the market.
Mega discoveries of natural gas directly impact crude oil demand. I give you a LNG powered locomotive:
http://wonderful-russia.net/russian-technology-industry/most-powerful-gas-turbine-electric-locomotive-gtel/
[ Translations:
Reaction engine = Gas turbine
fridge for cooling = LNG ultra cold fuel tank]
MS/152; –a long long time ago in a galaxy far far away. The BDS that fired up in 04 so that Lurch the Ketchup Marryer could locate our presidency on Lubyanka Street, did an assortment of damage –including blinding a lot of folks out of spite for BDS. That said, GWB’s attempt to ‘bring us together’ at least put that conceit in the crapper where it can’t get all over our britches anymore.
B/153; seen this?
(Boone Pickens’ ‘plan’ website –folks can sign up, and help the bill get thru congress –what bill? look at the site!)
–how does this relate to the thread? How does it NOT?
Let’s be honest. Obama is not the smartest man in the world and is in way over his head on the world stage. He is good at golf, basketball, listening to music at the White House and taking expensive, friviolous trips that amount to nothing.
His days at Harvard are kept secret. Why? If had nothing to hide and was proud of his record he would make it public. I suspect he was Mr. Affirmative Action in his school days.
My theory is that since he speaks English well (unlike Jesse Jackson and most of the other race pimps), people assume he is smart. But without his teleprommpter telling him what to say, pronouncing words correctly is pretty much meaningless.
I have fulll confidence he will let N. Korea, China and the others make a fool of him, just like most every other leader has.
Rumor on SecDef’s replacement: Kenny G