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The New Great Game

September 22, 2009 - 11:34 pm - by Richard Fernandez

While the world celebrates the United Nations Peace Day, danger continues to brew just out of sight of the choreographed pageantry in distant parts of the Caucasus and in South Asia, far from the quite towns of civilized Western Europe. Here violence does not mean schoolyard bullying; it means combat at its most brutal with weapons at their most apocalyptic. Janes claims that the Chechen insurgency in Russia has metastized into a full-blown Islamist insurrection. It writes:

An escalation in violence in the North Caucasus suggests the conflict has completed its shift from a struggle for Chechen independence into a less Chechen-specific, multi-ethnic jihadist insurgency that has united the region’s various local militant groups behind the goal of establishing an Islamic state. The recent suicide attacks testify to the growing radicalisation and vigour of the Chechen insurgency after several years of severely reduced operational activity. The decline in violence was widely accredited to the brutal counter-insurgency tactics adopted by Chechnya’s President Ramzan Kadyrov. …

If the jihadists can successfully take their war to the Russian heartland, they will make it virtually impossible to break the cycle of repression, radicalisation and violence that currently blights the North Caucasus.

Looking east, the UK Times has a sensational article by Simon Henderson, claiming that America’s “ally” Pakistan was  really the conscious ringleader of nuclear proliferation with North Korea and that AQ Khan, the supposedly rogue nuclear scientist, was operating with more official authority than is now admitted. Henderson cites a letter in his possession, the twin of one in Dutch custody, which lays it all out.

Just four pages long, it is an extraordinary letter, the contents of which have never been revealed before. Dated December 10, 2003, and addressed to Henny, Khan’s Dutch wife, it is handwritten, in apparent haste. It starts simply: “Darling, if the government plays any mischief with me take a tough stand.” In numbered paragraphs, it outlines Pakistan’s nuclear co-operation with China, Iran and North Korea, and also mentions Libya. It ends: “They might try to get rid of me to cover up all the things they got done by me.” …

Bloggers will probably err on the side of more imaginative conspiracy theories, but the truth is probably simpler. After the September 11 attacks, the West in general, and the United States in particular, had to work with Pakistan to counter Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda in neighbouring Afghanistan. That meant that they had to work with President Musharraf, even though he was no democrat. As part of the bargain, Pakistan’s nuclear sins also needed to be placed to one side.

As sins go, they were big: Pakistan had been spreading nuclear technology for years. The first customer for one of its enrichment plants was China — which itself had supplied Pakistan with enough highly enriched uranium for two nuclear bombs in the summer of 1982. …

America is pressing hard for Khan’s continued confinement. Deprived by Pakistan of the opportunity to interrogate Khan, the US is concerned that he may revive his old networks. Echoing the official view, The New York Times called this month for restrictions to remain on Khan for his “heinous role as maestro of the world’s largest nuclear black market”. …

If Khan is free to travel and speak openly, there is a danger that he will give his own account of events, opening up a can of worms and complicating relations with Washington. Now his letter has been revealed, he hopes his story will be told differently.

Taken together the two articles provide a glimpse into the interlocking problems on the Eurasian continent: Russia’s continuing woes; the enormous leverage that Pakistan acquired simply by behaving badly — for which it continues to be rewarded. A new Great Game, involving Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and the United States is now in full swing. At stake is oil and the cards are radical Islam and nuclear power. What are America’s interests in this contest? What are the dangers which face it?


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40 Comments, 40 Threads, 1 Trackbacks

  1. Wretchard writes “What are America’s interests in this contest? What are the dangers which face it?”

    It truely is a great game & Russia nows how to play.

    As for America’s interests in the contest … and the dangers we face … well … maybe we’ll run out of certified organic Tuscan kale …:

    “Let’s say you’re preparing dinner and you realize with dismay that you don’t have any certified organic Tuscan kale. What to do?

    Here’s how Michelle Obama handled this very predicament Thursday afternoon:

    The Secret Service and the D.C. police brought in three dozen vehicles and shut down H Street, Vermont Avenue, two lanes of I Street and an entrance to the McPherson Square Metro station. They swept the area, in front of the Department of Veterans Affairs, with bomb-sniffing dogs and installed magnetometers in the middle of the street, put up barricades to keep pedestrians out, and took positions with binoculars atop trucks. Though the produce stand was only a block or so from the White House, the first lady hopped into her armored limousine and pulled into the market amid the wail of sirens.

    Then, and only then, could Obama purchase her leafy greens. “Now it’s time to buy some food,” she told several hundred people who came to watch. “Let’s shop!”

    She spoke of the global reach of her cause: “The first thing world leaders, prime ministers, kings, queens ask me about is the White House garden. And then they ask about Bo.”

    She spoke of the fuel fed to the world’s most powerful man: “I’ve learned that when my family eats fresh food, healthy food, that it really affects how we feel, how we get through the day . . . whether there’s a Cabinet meeting or whether we’re just walking the dog.”

    And she spoke of her own culinary efforts: “There are times when putting together a healthy meal is harder than you might imagine.”

    Particularly when it involves a soundstage, an interpreter for the deaf, three TV satellite trucks and the closing of part of downtown Washington.”

    If the new great game involving Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan & United States affects the ability of Michelle Obama to purchase certified organic Tuscan kale … well then … I am sure Barack Obama will take it seriously.

    That way she can continue to talk to world leaders about the White house garden …

    After all, what is more important than pleasing ones wife?

    On such small matters great empires are won & lost.

  2. The United States faces two kinds of vulnerabilities in dealing with rogue states such as Pakistan and North Korea. The external and the internal.

    External constraints are imposed by the system and prevent or impede us from undertaking certain courses of action. For example we are constrained from eliminating the North Korean problem by dropping 20 nuclear weapons on that country, even though doing so would decisively solve that problem. The reason that we feel constrained from taking what might be an effective course of action is that the resulting effects of such an event would severely degrade our relations with Japan or other places downwind.

    Internal constraints include limitations that we have imposed on ourselves with either no external compulsion or a fraudulent collaboration between internal and external actors. An example of that is the abandonment of missile defense systems. The argument that we did it to obtain goodwill from outside parties rings as false as if a left wing municipality arranged to be sued by an outside agency that they had a prior relationship with in order to compel a consent decree that imposes conditions without submitting to the normal legislative process.

    If we had engaged on a program of thorough rearmament then Kim and Chavez and Putin would have to recalculate. That would have made the world a safer place. We did the opposite and the world is more dangerous.

  3. 3. whiskey

    I imagine, knowing the character of Vladimir Putin, he will simply conduct ethnic genocide against the Chechens and all other Muslim groups in the Caucuses. Indeed, his informal alliance with Iran provides Islamic cover to these measures. No one will peep, since those that do end up shot in elevators or drinking Polonium 210 laced tea.

    As for nuclear proliferation, a done deal. Poland and the Czech Republic and Hungary need nukes ASAP to stave off Russian invasion. The Israelis need even more nukes, given US abandonment. Same for Taiwan, Japan, and of course Australia. All are on their own, face dangerous and large neighbors intent on conquering them.

  4. 4. kevin de bruxelles

    The new great game should be played along the following lines.

    1.A grand economic and military alliance of culturally Christian nations. Israel and Japan would also be invited to align themselves with this great grouping for cultural and pragmatic reasons. One must recognize that Japan would probably be eventually lost to an Asian alliance while it is likely Israel (if it survives) would always be a subsidiary member of the Christian Alliance. The United Nations would be immediately shuttered but a new headquarters for the Christian Alliance would be built in Jerusalem. Christianity would be defined broadly to avoid some of the esoteric battles over minutia that split Christians in the first millennium.

    2.With the exception of the two nations mentioned above, all non-culturally Christian nations would be held at arms length and no close economic or military ties would be allowed. Military force would be used to ensure the continued supply of natural resources critical to nations of the Christian Alliance.

    3. More than 85% of Islamic terrorism is Wahhabi-based. Saudi Arabia would be ordered to put an immediate halt to Wahhabi-based terrorism or face being invaded and conquered by Christian holy warriors who will then themselves put a bloody end forever to the Wahhabi sect. Any remaining pockets of Islamic terrorism could then be dealt with in detail. This would represent a complete reversal of the current strategy against terrorism which seeks to kill terrorists on the retail level while leaving untouched the wholesale production of terrorists in Saudi Arabian and Pakistani madrassas.

    4.All former Christian land would be targeted for eventual reintegration into the Christian community. This includes Turkey, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Libya, and the rest of North Africa. Obviously this policy could get a little sensitive to Israel but an accommodation allowing unlimited access to Christian pilgrims and settlers could be negotiated. This would be a long-term goal and no invasions would be immediately launched. However, first freedom and protection to worship for Christians, and then freedom to settle, would be demanded and these demands would be backed by the stick of severe military sanctions and the carrot of better trade terms.

    5.Free trade would be extended automatically only to members of the Christian Alliance, and to others only in a very limited fashion if necessary for pragmatic reasons.

    In a clash of civilizations political correctness and multiculturalism are making culturally Christian people unable or unwilling to exert their superior organizational model. The idea of a grand Christian Alliance would also encourage many culturally Christian nations on the brink to re-embrace Christianity and to therefore turn away from cultural Marxism.

  5. 5. bob

    Onward Christian soldiers! Reconquista!

    Let’s win the 2010 elections first, as a starter. Block the muslim marxist thug in the White House!

  6. 6. RAH

    Bruxcelles wants to revert to the history of the 10th thru the 14th centuries the great religous empires with the Holy Roman Empire versus the Muslim invasions.

    Religion generally takes a back seat to power for rulers. It is useful only as a motivator.

    Russia has enough non religous reasons to crush the Chechens and will do so as needed.

    It would be a good test for their military. They have allowed the training and equipping their military lapse in the last 10 years and that was shown by the Georgia debacle. They have lots of old hardware and people but they need to be upgraded.

    I had not heard since our press is so provincial about the current situation in Chechen. That is one reason I come to the Belmont Club

  7. 7. The Wobbly Guy

    Rather than focusing on an overtly christian orientation, it’s better to play the cultural war a bit more subtly. While religion does play a part, overall civilizational strength and will relies on a whole lot of other factors.

    For example, one can easily envision a world split along five ‘main’ civilizations – Anglo-Western(North America, Europe), Hispanic(Spain, Latin America), Sinocentric(East Asia), Hindu(a gross and very inaccurate generalization of South Asia), and Islamic(you know who).

    The biggest problem with looking at things this way is that there’s a whole lot of internal conflict even within each grouping… but I’ve found it a convenient way of classifying attitudes and likely cultural responses to situations and events.

    Any great game should be played according to the paradigms above… and christianity a subtle tool to shift allegiances and mediate cultural factors. For example, South Korea will, IIRC, effectively become a christian nation by 2050. Ditto for China, which is also converting rapidly.

    By letting them keep their membership in their respective spheres, you essentially maintain good relations between the bulk of anglo and sino nations, rather than have them overtly move over to the Christian side and risk alienating the other non-christian nations which have their own virtues (e.g. Buddhism).

  8. Israel attempted to assume the role of protector of the christian community in Lebanon in 1982. That didn’t exactly work out. Israel should have annexed Bethlehem when she absorbed the neighboring district of East Jerusalem in 1967. That would have made Israel explicitly the protector of the arab christian communities and would have revolutionized the relationships of all parties with the Vatican and center-right Europeans. The failure to do so was one of those administrative oversights that proves that history is not explainable simply through cartesian logic.

  9. 9. dan

    There is a theory that the Chechen region is Kremlin disinformation: it is run by the KGB (1) to provide on-going justification for increasingly open totalitarianism of Putin & Co. (cf. 1998 Moscow Apartment Bombings), (2) a place to train both its regular armed forces and its special forces, (3) to flamboyantly demonstrate Islamic antagonism to Moscow, and (4) to beat down any sincere separatism. Of course enough people there actually do hate Moscow/Russia/whatever to fill the jihadi ranks, so only the few at the top need to be KGB. I obviously have no idea whether this is true or not. It is interesting though that the war was only recently declared over, and yet here it is flaring up again in a place NPR only yesterday described as a dictator’s satrapy whose admirers (interviewed on air) liken to Stalin. And of course Ukraine/Georgia are looking riper than ever after the Obama retreat.

    As for the Infrastructure of Evil – Pakistan, Iran, NK, Libya, sponsored by Russia/China – I guess it all depends on whether you view the smaller states as really independent and therefore “rogue.” For example, it seems pretty clear that the political class in Pakistan has nothing to do with actually running it; more likely they’re West-acceptable window dressing. We don’t have any idea what goes on in the Guardian Council or the NK Politburo or what exactly goes on in Libya (let alone China and Russia).

    It is difficult to develop coherent goals and strategies to achieve them when the very actors who thwart you do so from behind a vast Asiatic screen…

  10. 10. The Wobbly Guy

    China’s support of rogue regimes is interesting simply for the fact that once they’ve taken down the West a notch (if they ever do), then a non-islamic China would naturally be their next target.

    Why then, is China not worried at all? Is it because it has so much confidence in its own ability and will to destroy the Islamics that it can afford them succor and use them as proxies?

    Almost certainly, China would not mollycoddle its enemies like the West, and once identified as enemies by China, they’d be destroyed. The Tamil Tigers can attest to that.

    But a nuclear-armed state like Pakistan is very different from a rag-tag terror group like the Tigers. What does China have that gives it confidence it can control events as it wants?

  11. 11. MALTHUS

    Christianity would be defined broadly to avoid some of the esoteric battles over minutia that split Christians in the first millennium.–KDB

    Perhaps nowhere is this latitudinarian outlook more widely embraced than in England. Yet the churches and chapels there are deserted. If few real fundamental distinctions exist between Christian sects, why pay tribute to religious fervor? It would be better that the state suppress religious opinion in the interest of presenting a united front to Islam.

    Religion generally takes a back seat to power for rulers. It is useful only as a motivator.–RAH

    This is exactly what is wrong with KDB’s proposal. It binds the church to serve the state, making her a junior partner in political intrigues. The Church is thereby seduced into playing The Great Harlot of Revelation.

    Begone, Tempter.

  12. 12. luddy barsen

    dan/9; –reminds that if ever a USSR suitcase nuke is discovered –or triggered –anyplace considered fair target by the jihad, it will have been one of those ‘stolen from the Russian base by the Chechen terrorists in the late 90s’. IOW, the story is already in place. Look it up.

  13. 13. HEPT

    The Russian’s will just get tired of the chechen shit and reach for their hammers.
    Then a whole slew of folks are gonna die.
    I will waste no pity on the chechen muslims they will get what they so richly deserve. And the Russian’s will get some!

  14. 14. Sergey

    Ethnic genocide is not needed to root out a conspiracy, and Putin, former KGB officer, knows this better than anybody. Just martial law in few provinces will do the trick, and liquidation of a several dozen of Islamic activists is a task quite doable for dedicated special service agencies. Real problem in Northern Caucasia is corruption of local administation, but it can be overcome if local guys are replaced by functionaries from the center. That is why martial law is needed.

  15. 15. dan

    Wretchard I’m starting to wonder whether it will be possible to be even as assertive as GW Bush was on the world scene after the present administration enacts the apparent will of the people re: national security and the national mood. The Iraq Phenomenon was like a gratuitously imposed Vietnam Era, and the babyboomers – to say nothing of their heirs – won’t be dead for at least 20 years. Maybe the greatest project is how to gracefully withdrawal. I personally think it is impossible to do so. It could very well be proceeded by minor invasions-for-conquest – Georgia, Ukraine, who knows – but it will certainly be accompanied by them. The national mood may be revivable, but just going by the conversations I have with my friends I’d say it is highly unlikely. They are thoroughly demoralized. Like Pavlovian dogs, the only legitimate objects of criticism are the errors of their political opponents. If they are out of power, then their political opponents’ previous acts were to blame. If you bring up the sorts of evils which occur as a matter of course in other countries the response of my friends is to make some ludicrous equivocation with USA.

    We all know this is the case with these people, but the propaganda offensive of the past 8 years has been wildly successful: its managed to convert a whole new generation to a destabilizing political sentiment, grounded in (egotism, ignorance) implacable opposition to the party of overt patriotism. I’d say our basic interest at this point is to keep other nations (the SCO nations) from breaking the international order – which may have begun to irreversibly crack at its economic seams anyway.

    I can easily think of how to reverse this/these trend, but I can’t imagine it with the present popular political culture.

  16. 16. Josh

    I said recently that in Afghanistan there is no insurgency as such, for there is nothing to insurge against, not even a tradition.

    I think that the new great game is Islam against the west, of which the US has the honor of being the chief target, except of course for Israel, and the greater convenience of location of the UK or, for car burnings and the like, France.

    It need not be any Islamic state that plays the game, Islam doesn’t particulary recognize secular states, nor even Islamic states. There is no effective state, Islamic or otherwise, in the areas we call Afghanistan – and barely any more in Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is the royal family. Iraq is the shining model of Arab Islamic secularism, such as it is, and such as it is, we have yet to see if it will survive on its own, or with help, through the Obama administration.

    Chechnya? I don’t know, but I would not be surprised if it is equally a location where the Islamic war against the west – and for regional self-determination – is taking place. Can it be defeated with the elimination of a few leaders? That would be nice, and worth trying, but I’m skeptical.

    Some wholesale cultural and religious changes are more likely needed. I will note that vaporization is a cultural and religious change, of a kind. I don’t think that is really the only choice, nor even the only effective choice. Islam conquered half the world over a few hundred years, according to Bernard Lewis through a slow process, aided in critical ways by the sword, but much more gradual and even rational than that suggests. Something like that would probably work today, in reverse. In fact, probably will work that way over time, even if we explicitly do nothing. Eventually the western consumerism and materialism and, yes, secularism, will conquer Islam as it did communism. Yes, there are communists left, but these are not your grandfather’s communists, are they? And do they even take themselves seriously?

    The question is, however, what will we do about jihadi efforts against the west over the next hundred years, until Fabian materialism finally does its work?

  17. 17. Josh

    Very nice new article at New Scientist today on the odds and damage if and when asteroids do hit the earth, as was discussed the other day.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327271.300-asteroid-attack-putting-earths-defences-to-the-test.html

    One reasonable concern is that if it happens over a politically sensitive area, it could be mistaken for a nuclear blast.

  18. 18. luddy barsen

    Sergey/14; –martial law means formations, formations mean, time for Baku to start paying the Tribute.

    Also, as far as Putin knowing that no ‘ethnic genocide’ (your words) would be needed, was not it Putin who, new in office, gave the orders which annihilated Grozny?

  19. 19. Kirk Parker

    Amit (#1), how can we be sure that Dana Milbank didn’t copy his opening paragraphs from The Onion?

  20. 20. Broccoli

    Janes claims that the Chechen insurgency in Russia has metastized into a full-blown Islamist insurrection.

    Wow, fresh news from 1992!

  21. 21. luddy barsen

    Russia pressuring the Crimea –wow, fresh news from 1850!

  22. 22. NahnCee

    Just returned from a visit to the doctor, during which she gave me a flu shot. I asked her about swine flu and she said the vaccines weren’t available yet, and in any case there’s a very narrow and limited range of people who will get them because there isn’t enough vaccine being manufactured by the one company doing it, so I won’t get one because I don’t fall into the recommended categories.

    So, then, if we don’t have enough swine flu vaccine to go around for taxpaying Americans, why the hell are we shipping 10% of the stock tht we *do* have overseas to people who have not invented vaccines, not paid to manufacture vaccines, and probably think that any vaccines are a racist CIA plot to kill them any way?

    The UN’s efforts were boosted last week when nine countries, including Britain and the US, pledged to give the equivalent of a 10% share of their swine flu vaccine supply to help fight the deadly virus’s global spread. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report

    Does this lunacy fall under Obama’s healthcare plan for the entire planet or some damned dumb thing?

  23. 23. dan

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3779185,00.html

    Large joint US Navy/Israeli AF maneuvors about to begin….

  24. 24. dan

    by the way is Qaddafi hilarious or what.

  25. 25. dan

    so… maybe we gave up missile defense in europe for russian green light to attack iran? i could live with that trade.

  26. 26. Joshua

    (not to be confused w/ Josh @ #16 above)

    Dan, #15: I’d say our basic interest at this point is to keep other nations (the SCO nations) from breaking the international order – which may have begun to irreversibly crack at its economic seams anyway.

    Indeed, I’ve argued many times here in the past that the viability of the Westphalian nation-state model itself is on thin ice, because that model depends in large part upon commerce, information and culture being easily contained within physical boundaries. Those days are long gone, and now the world’s leaders can be divided into three groups: those who have no inkling that the Westphalian model is dying, those who have no apparent interest in reviving it, and those who, like me, have no clue if it even can be revived, much less how to do so. It’s quite possible we’ll see the international order fail even without a conscious effort by any particular nation(s) to wreck it.

  27. 27. Subotai Bahadur

    #’s 23, 24,& 25 dan

    I saw notice of that exercise a couple of days ago. It is not an offensive exercise, but a defensive one assuming missile attacks by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas on Israel. If I was anyone near the command structures of Zewa Hagana le Jisrael; I would be operating under the assumption that the goal of the exercise for the Americans was to find out any special defensive tactics or techniques Israel had in case of a missile attack. And then pass them to Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. Such a trade as you mentioned would be possibly livable; but it is horrendously unlikely given the direction of our foreign policy since January 20. And to be honest, long before, say from the November 27, 2007 Annapolis Conference.

    Subotai Bahadur

  28. 28. Joe Hill

    “Real problem in Northern Caucasia is corruption of local administation, but it can be overcome if local guys are replaced by functionaries from the center. That is why martial law is needed.”

    Sergey do you honestly think the kleptocrats in Moscow are less corrupt than the local administration? The Russians can’t stamp out the Chechen rebellion or they would have done it already. What they need to do is pit one ethnic group against the other in the Caucases so they are so busy fighting each other they finally beg the Russians to come in and make peace between them. That is how you maintain an empire.

    The Russians are a thorn in our side but not a real threat. It is a society in even faster population implosion than western europe with a billion Muslems on both inside and on its borders.

  29. 29. Sergey

    JoeHill, yes, cleptocrats in Moscow are less corrupt than local authorities in Caucasia simply because corruption means quite different things here and there. In Moscow it means you can sometimes bribe a police officer to avoid fine for DUI or bribe a judge to close a case. In Caucasia it means that you can buy an office of police officer or a judge seat. These tribes are actually tribal, like in Sicily or Corsica, that is, are ruled by mafia family clans. No real law enforcement is possible in such backward cultures, if it is not done by colonial administration without family ties with local clans.

  30. 30. Sergey

    Chechen rebellion is already stumped out. It is reduced now to several small-scale terrorist attacks a year. That is why Al-Qaeda emmisary are now concentrate on igniting rebellion in other places, without much success.

  31. 31. Sergey

    Russian empire never was based on pitting one ethnic group against another, but on including in this empire those ethnic groups that were on a brink of annihilation by hostile (usually Muslim) forces and giving to these groups military protection. That is how Georgia, Armenia, Ossetia and Abhazia (and earlier, Ukraine) were included. Georgians were fighting against Persia and Osman empire; Ukranians against Poland; Crimea and Tatar Sultanats were Muslim themselves and often make military invasions in Russia proper. Neither Tzars nor Communists ignited inter-ethnic conflicts, but tried to quell them. But they often played one local clan against another to get domination over all of them, but not to the point to provoke actual fighting.

  32. 32. Fred2

    @Nahncee:

    My theory: Sometimes an epidemic can be damped down widely enough to effect transmission globally. That is, it might be that the plan is to fight the global virus globally, to reduce the epidemic in Europe and the US.

    A wild epidemic in all the third world will eventually impact the first world.

  33. 33. Fred2

    The new Great Game also involves North Korea, Venezuela and Syria on their side and Poland, Israel and Great Britain on ours. The Euros aren’t too steady, but lean our way.

    The Chinese, though, could probably be seduced to the Light Side with enough oil; Invade Iran and seize the oil fields, and offer to trade some to China in return for cooperation with regard to No Korea and Iran. More or less.

  34. 34. Sergey

    Chinese geopolitical wisdom is best expressed by an ancient proverb, which Mao loved to repeat: Sitting on the top of a hill, watch two tigers fighting in the valley. This is almost impossible to lull China into military intervention far from direct proximity to her borders. All their wars in 20 century (Korea, India, Tibet, Russian border) were in territories nearby, when they perceived a direct treat.

  35. 35. dan

    Subotai – but doesn’t the operation suggest that US/Israel have reason to believe such a defense will be necessary soon? Or do you think it isn’t as ominous as that?

  36. 36. Subotai Bahadur

    #35 dan

    It is absolutely ominous, however the approaches to the coming event differ. For the Israelis, it is an existential threat. For the current regime here, it is a opportunity and a successful Iranian nuclear strike on Israel is something to be hoped for. This actually goes back several administrations, but American policy has for generations been to encourage unilateral Israeli concessions until the point comes where Israel is no longer viable. Then with Israel out of the way, the Poo-Bah’s of Foggy Bottom can deal happily with their friends the Sheikh’s. And yes, it even carried through the administration of George II. The Annapolis Conference was an attempt to force a weak and corrupt Israeli PM to yield Israel’s safety.

    Now, this policy is backed by an American regime whose head is arguably Muslim, is at least overtly pro-Muslim, and whose first foreign policy acts were to abase himself before the sponsors of Islamic terrorism and attack and betray any allies we might have against said terrorism [which he says does not exist, it is now "man made disasters"]. His every interaction with Israel has been in the form of an imperious command as to a despised vassal, his every approach to Iran, et.al. has been in the form of obeisance and grovelling.

    Israel has literally been betrayed by every great power ally it has had since before the UN partition. They would be worse than fools to not assume that Buraq Hussein was betraying them.

    Subotai Bahadur

  37. 37. luddy barsen

    At this moment, there is but one man –one foreigner –who can protect Israel: Vladimir Putin.

  38. 38. ScenarioA

    Wrechard: “At stake is oil and the cards are radical Islam and nuclear power. What are America’s interests in this contest? What are the dangers which face it?”

    Just as the collapse of the Durrani Empire in Afghanistan/Pakistan/Kashmir opened the door for the Great Game of the 19th century so has the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 opened the door for the 21st century phase of the game.

    Drawing a parallel with the 19th century version of the game in central Asia (which might not be at all appropriate today), we might consider that, in addition to assuring access to central Asian oil on the open market and curbing radical Islam, we have an interest in hindering hegemonic impulses of some of the other players. For one approach to the analysis, update Mackinder’s Hearthland theory, shifting the pivot area to central Asia’s Middle Strip as suggested by Mahan. Has technology rendered Mackinder and Mahan obsolete? Might it be imprudent to assume such? Might we add a third question to the two you asked: “What are the stakes in this new game?”

    It’s worth thinking about, in my view. I suspect certain other players (adding Turkey and India to your list) have given this issue much study.

  39. 39. Fletcher Christian

    Perhaps the Russians and militant Islam will occupy each other, leaving less energy to commit various forms of mischief on the free world. I’m not sure whether this is a quotation, but it ought to be one: “If two of your enemies decide to fight each other, leave them to it.”

    Or perhaps Russia will get fed up with the violence and do what should have been done by the USA on 9/12/2001, and “the smoke of their burning will rise up unto heaven”.

    One unwanted side effect would be that the remnants of Islam would find it easier to find the direction of the rock they pray to; just look for the blue glow on the horizon.

  40. 40. luddy barsen

    According to Princeton scholar Bernard Lewis…it was a Turkish general, speaking shortly after Turkey joined NATO, who said:

    “The problem with having the Americans as your allies is that you never know when they’ll turn around and stab themselves in the back.”

    http://www.davidwarrenonline.com/index.php?id=1050