An email from the Lebanese Renaissance Foundation in Lebanon looks at why Hezbollah lost and what is next for Lebanon. The story here is that the Christians essentially provided the “swing vote”. They were the “battleground” community between the “pro-Western” March 14 and the “pro-Hezbollah” March 8 political coaltions. The email goes on to say:
The election results in the Shia, Sunni and Druze-majority districts were seen as foregone conclusions some time ago. Shia voters overwhelmingly support the opposition, while Sunni and Druze voters predominantly support the March 14 coalition. Christian voters were divided, and so these elections were decided in the Christian-majority “swing” districts.
After redistricting last year, March 14 Christians were no longer guaranteed victory in these districts. However, opinion polls over the past four years had shown a dramatic decrease in support for Aoun as well. The essential question was which of those would matter more. In the end they both mattered – March 14 lost Baabda and Zgharta – but Aoun’s decline mattered more. March 14 Christians were able to hold on to their seats in Beirut, Batroun and Koura as well as gain enough seats in Zahleh and the Metn to make up for their losses elsewhere.
The reasons for Aoun’s drop in popularity are several, but his 2006 alliance with Hezbollah and his recent rapprochement with Syria and Iran appear to be the biggest factors. These moves put him too far out of step with a majority of Lebanese Christian voters. A number of rhetorical missteps by Hezbollah in recent days as well as an eleventh hour push against Hezbollah by the Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir may have contributed.
As always international politics played a part in both directions. “Although small in size Lebanon is viewed as a bell-weather state in the Middle East, and having sent both the Secretary of State and the Vice President to show support in recent weeks, it would have been an embarrassment to see America’s allies lose anyway. It is unclear whether pro-Obama sentiment was a significant factor in these elections, though the connection is already being made in the press.” My own view is that many Lebanese political forces had their finger to the wind. Although there may have been some suspicion that Lebanon had been ‘sold out’ in America’s quest for rapproachment with Syria, those signals were corrected quickly enough to push the tiller the other way. The defeat of Syrian and Iranian proxies will paradoxically make Obama’s “engagement” easier. I think it’s true, as the email says, that “March 14′s win reflects very well on America’s role in the region, and will likely make the Obama administration’s job a lot easier than it could have been.” It may even affect the Iranian elections that are scheduled to be held soon. Everyone loves a winner; nobody loves a minicing, retreating apologist.
Messages from other contacts have warned that Hezbollah may still have a few dirty tricks up its sleeve. One should recall that Hezbollah won political concessions recently by simply sending its forces into Beirut. They may have lost the election, but Hezbollah has by no means lost the war. But all the same the result is one that anyone who cares about democracy should modestly celebrate. The victors are politicians, and in politics nothing is perfect. The skies won’t open and a new day won’t automatically come. But the ‘Orcs’, as someone I know calls the Nasrallah’s men, have lost for now. And that’s good enough. In some small way the readers of the Belmont Club may have helped change the awareness and climate of international public opinion toward the Lebanese elections. Maybe it wasn’t much, but it played its part.
And that’s the way of a real tale. Take any one that you’re fond of. You may know, or guess, what kind of a tale it is, happy-ending or sad-ending, but the people in it don’t know. And you don’t want them to. …
I wonder if we shall ever be put into songs or tales. We’re in one, or course; but I mean: put into words, you know, told by the fireside, or read out of a great big book with red and black letters, years and years afterwards. And people will say: “Let’s hear about Frodo and the Ring!” And they’ll say: “Yes, that’s one of my favourite stories. Frodo was very brave. wasn’t he, dad?” “Yes, my boy, the famousest of the hobbits, and that’s saying a lot.”
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And that’s the way of a real tale. Take any one that you’re fond of. You may know, or guess, what kind of a tale it is, happy-ending or sad-ending, but the people in it don’t know. And you don’t want them to. …
The real question these days is what character from the Lord of the Rings that Obama most resembles. My own vote goes to Wormtongue.
There are not only political shocks in Lebanon. In NY State the Republicans appear to have regained control of the State Senate.
Another bullet dodged.
Tcobb – I think Obama as Saruman would be closer to the mark, as that wizard was blessed with the gift of the gab. The role of Wormtongue might be better played by Pelosi or Reid.
Unfortunately, last November McCain ended up looking more like Radagast the Brown than Gandalf.
In NY State the Republicans appear to have regained control of the State Senate.
Yes, and to what end? NY Republicans are a flimsy breed, by and large. Let’s see if they can do anything to stand up to our Hitler with a Halo in D.C.
Don’t expect much.
Obama and his speech were not on anyone’s mind during the elections. The media can say what it wants, but the elections were based on much more complicated and existential issues. The US government was involved, but in the same way it has been before.
It should not surprise anyone that Nasrallah’s (Hizbullah’s Leader) concession speech was one of the most civilized you can read. He thanked his supporter, congratulated the winners and stretched out his hand in cooperation.
Hizbullah could not loose the elections because March 14 and its supporters did not contest their seats.
Hariri and his group could not loose, because Hizbullah, Iran and Syria did not contest their seats either.
Those who ran against Hariri or Hizbullah had no support from anyone. There was no money no supportive talk no propaganda machines. Nothing.
The only contest was in the Christian districts. More accurately it was against the Christians – all of them. Of course Hariri’s propagandists in the Lebanese Renaissance Foundation are going to give a song and dance about democracy and freedom. They know that when the US hears that it stops looking at anything else and just enjoys the music regardless of the facts.
Sadly the West continues to believe these guys are ignorant lunatics. The reality is that they are more machiavellian than Machiavelli himself. They are infamous for putting on a great dog and pony show and luring others into doing all their dirty work for them.
Syria and Saudi Arabia have already kissed and made up. Saudi Arabia and Iran never really got into a fight. There has been a lot of discussions between Hizbullah and Hariri. A direct meeting was avoided to maintain the electoral pretense and keep the world fighting to defeat the FPM and its Christian allies, auspiciously to defeat Hizbullah.
You have to realize that an opposition victory would have had to mostly come from the Christian opposition and some Sunnis and Druze, since the Shiites cannot gain any more seats to gain – sectarian limits. That would have made the new majority in its own majority Christian. This would translate into strengthening and re-establishing the authority of the Christian president and putting curbs on Islamic moves in the country.
The Christians from March 14 would have had to declare their independence from Hariri and take a more solid stand on Christian issues and the Presidency to retain their credibility in their community. That would have meant a total loss of Hariri’s and Saudi Arabia’s control over the country. And, Hizbullah would have to abide by bring its weapons under Government control, which it has so far avoided because Hariri needs it to face off the Christians and maintain his dominance and Saudi Arabia’s influence.
This necessitated a deal between Hariri and Hizbullah mdiated by their mutual allies Druze leader Jumblat and Amal leader and Parliament Speaker Berri. Anyone watching closely could see the signs of the deal. Jumblat was very clear when he stated a few days ago that alliances will change after the elections. Berri, who is Hizbullah’s ally a stated his support for Hariri as Prime Minister, win or loose. Hariri also openly stated his support for Berri to stay as Speaker of Parliament, win or loose. Does that sound like they were running against each other or running a show?
The electoral battle was directed at the Christian majority districts, sparing no tool at their disposal, including threats of total destruction by Israel, threats of economic isolation and political ostracism by the US and the West, threats against the economic livelihoods of people in Lebanon and in the Arab world, billions spend openly on vote buying, etc.
The objective was the same as in 2005. Simply put, they aimed to defeat and discredit the largest and most vocal Christian voice and subjugate the others. That way Hariri maintains his dominance and shares with his fellow mafia bosses Jumblat and Berri. Hizbullah retains its independence. March 14 allows it to do what it wants, supports it, but retains deniability, the same way it has operated for the past 4 years.
But, it did not work out as well this time. The new electoral districts and the forceful presence of the FPM forced Hariri and Jumblat to abandon more seats to independent Christian than they wanted. They supplied the money and threats, but had to let them run. That resulted in more Christian Parliamentarians from outside he Hariri-Jumblat lackeys.
In spite of all this and contrary to the propagandists, the FPM gained 30% more seats. The FPM actually gained 6 new seats and lost 2 that it held, for a net gain of 4 for the party itself. Its allies in the Change and Reform block gained 8 seats and lost all 5, for a net gain for the block of 7 seats. The total is 29 seats against 22 outgoing. There is also talk about FPM and its allies contesting some of the results, but that remains to be seen.
The ability of the Change and Reform block to retain and expand its presence, has made the formation of an independent block apart from Hariri and Jumblat a necessity for March 14 Christians. It will have about 15 members and will be taking strong positions on Christian issues, particularly the Presidency, to maintain credibility.
Could this be a blessing in disguise for the Christians? Had Hizbullah and Hariri lost control would they have accepted that? Or, will there have been blood in the streets? May be this way, the spiteful enemies will be placated by the “loss” of Hizbullah, and the Christians have a chance to gradually regain ground without blood? We will see.
Watch Jumblat and Berri for signs of new deal in the coming days.
Here is the list of the Parties and the seats they hold in Parliament.
Loyalists – March 14
Future Movement – Sunni based – Saudi funded – some Christian 24
Islamic Movements – Sunni Fundamentalists 5
Popular Socialist Party – Druze with some Christians 7
Independent Moslem March 14 9
Independent Christian March 14 12
March 14 Chrsitian Parties Total 14
Kataeb – Christian Right Wing 4
Lebanese Forces – Christian Right Wing – separatist 5
National Liberal Party – Christian Right Wing – with some Moslems 1
Hanchak – Christian Left Wing 4
Opposition
Hizbullah – Shiite Fundamentalists 11
Amal – Shiite Nationalist 13
Syrian Nationalist Party – Secular Christian Dominant – Believes in regional unity 3
Baath Party – Secular – Similar to the Syrian and Iraqi Parties 1
Change and Reform Block Total 29
Free Patriotic Movement – Nationalist Right Wing – Christian Majority – Secular 18
Marada – Christian Right Wing 3
Tashnak – Christian Right wing 2
Lebanese Democratic Party – Druze and Christian – Secular 3
Independent Christian Opposition 3
Total Parliament Seats 128
Cadmus
The Christian numbers are believed to be declining and in that situation they are driven into alliances with the March 14 or March 8 people. So while neither March 14 nor March 8 will have their inherent interests at heart, the question is which alliance (with the Sunni March Fourteen or the Hezbollah’s March Eight) their greatest chance of survival lies. The answer may be neither in the long run for the Christians, but that is neither here nor there. For the moment, the Christian vote is split, but the degree of belief, especially amount the Aounists, that March Eight was better for the Christians appears not to have come off.
I think there is a genuine fear of Hezbollah’s power because it changes the old balance of power, which taken far enough, can rip Lebanon apart. In a battle for survival the factions may break up their coalitions; whether or not that will lead to another civil war is nothing anyone wants. But I think a Hezbollah victory would have been the greater of two evils from the Christian point of view if only because the Hez are likely to rocket Israel from the south and the remaining Christian communities there would be forced to evacuate north or abroad, perhaps for good.
Like I said, “The victors are politicians, and in politics nothing is perfect. The skies won’t open and a new day won’t automatically come.” But better one side I think, then the other.
What happens next in Lebanon?
Simple Sherlock…..War.
Some more data and news regarding Lebanon’s elections.
While the election was portrayed as a battle between good and evil, the reality, particularly in the Christian districts that made the difference tells another story, as the following examples of the competing candidates show.
One of the districts of Beirut included 5 Christian candidates and would have been enough to tip the scale. It included one Orthodox, one Maronite, one Catholic, One Armenian Orthodox and One Armenian Catholic. Those from each sect compete for that one seat, even though everyone votes for all candidates.
The Maronite winner is Nadime Gemayel 26, the son of Bashir Gemayel, who helped found the Christian resistance movement against the Palestinian, Syrian and Arab war on Lebanon in the 70’s. Bashir was killed before he took office as president in 1982. Running against him, and branded as the ultimate Islamic evil, was Masoud Ashkar, Bashir Gemayel’s right hand man in the fight against the Palestinians, and Syrians, wounded multiple times and credited as one of the fiercest fighters in defense of Lebanon. He is now a lawyer and has spent the last 20 years – since the end of the war – fighting politically against Syrian and Islamic dominance of Lebanon.
The Orthodox winner is Nayla Tuini, the daughter of Gibran Tuini, who was killed in 2005 by a car bomb. He was also one of the founders of the resistance along with Bashir Gemayel and Masuoud Ahkar, and was a very close friend of General Aoun the head of the FPM. Even though he ran for elections against the FPM, he held weekly meetings with the FPM and worked tirelessly to bring Christian unity. I believe that is the reason he died. Running against her was a retired General Abou Jamra who was one of the officers who trained Gebran, Masoud and Bashir and helped form a force capable of resisting the Jihad at that time and personally lead many of fiercest battles. The general was second in command to Aoun in the last stand against the Syrians in ’89-’91 and forcefully banished from Lebanon by the Syrians, returning only after they left in 2005.
The Catholic winner is a business man who cooperated with and profited from the Syrians throughout their rule in Lebanon. Running against him was a man who spent the years between 1991 and 2005 fighting the Syrians, The winner served in Governments that ordered the looser and his friends beaten and arrested more times than I can remember for insisting on Lebanon’s independence.
What battle between good and evil? What Moslem Fundamentalists? Not in this district and not between these candidates.
According to the interior ministry, 54.5% of the total vote went to opposition candidates. The preliminary breakdown – final breakdown by polling station and sect will not be posted until next Tuesday – indicate a sizeable majority of the Christian vote went to the opposition.
Of course those who won received more votes than their direct competition. But, the percentage differences in various districts and for various candidates effect the totals. Also, voters in all districts are religiously mixed, and every votes for all candidates. Candidates can win without getting the majority of their own sect or religion.
Another bit of news. One of the mafia bosses – sorry politicians – in another district – was recorded threatening a priest with jail and beating if he did not bring all his people to the polls to vote for him. He also clearly told him that he has paid off the $200,000 loan the church had with one bank. The candidate was a Christian himself and a member of March 14. The priest has presented his case to the constitutional court and came out publicly on TV, but I will not hold my breath. The candidate is the father of the current Defense Minister and threatened the priest with his son’s men. The Defense Minister is Washington’s favorite, whom a year ago Washington clearly stated that if he is not the Defense Minister they will refuse to sell Lebanon any weapons and will cut off all aide.
No system is perfect. And, as I said the results may be a blessing in disguise. But, if there was any evil in this race, it would be the ones threatening to arrest and beat up priests if they do not produce the votes, especially ones who call themselves Christian. Don’t you agree?
Cadmus
What is a problem for Hezbollah is the notion that with 71 seats in the parliament, the cabinet (whose formulation is dependent on those numbers) will no longer be held hostage to the opposition’s Veto, unless of course more car bombs start going off killing more cabinet members which somehow results in pressure on MP’s to not vote in replacements.
What that means is a political showdown in the future, will Hezbollah be allowed to retain an armed militia? Will the Government find the resources, the will and the determination to disarm the Hez. Nasralla has already stated that action is off limits. How will the new government respond?
I applaud the Lebanese who pulled off a peaceful election for the most part, and the army and security forces which kept the peace at poling places through out the country. Only a few clashes were reported and for the most part the efforts of the opposition was limited to subtle intimidation’s.
And thankfully, Jimmy Carter’s presence had no effect on the election.
Even though people mean well when they congratulate the Lebanese for a peaceful election, most Lebanese take it as an insult because it carries within it the assumption that they are barbarians and somehow managed to control their urge to kill each other. Elections in Lebanon go back a long time, and have always been held peacefully and losers accept the results in a democratic way.
Dipping fingers in ink is another insulting introduction by the US, through March 14, which has never been used before. It is demeaning since it is only necessary in illiterate societies that require something other than a list of voters to see who voted and who has not. It is not necessary in a country that has one of the highest literacy rates in the world.
Contesting results where there are grounds for such is normal and done all over the world. Trying to spin the numbers to one’s benefit is also a part of the democratic process. Pointing out irregularities or illegal activity is a must, even if you won or the revisions do not change the results. It is a must to insure it does not happen again and certainly to insure that people do not feel they got a way with it and thus do more the next time. It is simply the rule of law.
Hizbullah can be disarmed in only one of two ways. Military action, which will be extremely costly for Lebanon and is not promoted by anyone, or eliminating the justification for Hizbullah’s weapons. Booth options require a well armed Lebanese Army capable of defending Lebanon and controlling the country. Big words in the media do not alter reality on the ground.
So far arming the Lebanese Government has been a taboo. Israel is even complaining about the extremely meager weapons Lebanon is getting and lobbying the US to ban all arms to Lebanon. How then is Hizbullah to be disarmed?
The words of Hizbullah and its Iranian and Syrian backers indicate a certain relief that the Christian opposition did not win. In fact Hizbullah’s pre-election speeches may have been the main culprit in insuring that outcome, as they may have scared enough votes to the other side, while not having any rational need for their own campaign. They were already guaranteed victory. The Syrians are believed to have helped Hariri in the north through the Alawite vote.
As I said, March 14 is already in agreement to share power with Hizbullah. Its leaders have already stated their commitment to the policies of the past Government, which included in no uncertain terms a legalization of the “resistance”.
Washington knows all this and has accepted the Saudi deal. All our state department is asking for is that the Foreign Minister not be a member of Hizbullah, so it can maintain the stand of not talking to Hizbullah. They are not asking to exclude Hizbullah from the Government.
The Christians in March 14 are complaining, but they do not have enough to change that. The FPM and its Christian allies will probably be isolated again and left out of the cabinet to insure that the Christian voice inside the Cabinet will be limited.
Hizbullah will make some noise about their exclusion to bargain for more concessions, but not much more. The supposed battle against Hizbullah has been nothing more than a trick to get the US and the West to support the status quo that keeps Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia in control with their newly found rapprochement.
Will Washington ever learn?
There is an old saying in Lebanon that says “dogs do not really bite each other.”
Cadmus
Actually I did expect much worse from Hezbollah, so congratulation for a peaceful election is in order. As I understand the reports blood was only shed in two polling places and quickly and professionally contained.
Legalization of the “resistance”? I do not know where you get that notion, it is not the case that the Hezbollah Militia is to be legitimized, unless a portion were to be conscripted into the Lebanese military folks are still convinced that Hezbollah has no need for an armed wing.
Legalization was not the right word. I apologize. I meant legitimizing, by declaring the right of the “resistance” to continue its struggle to liberate Lebanese land from Israeli occupation. This is included in the Government’s program today and was in 2006. In fact Hizbullah in 2005 stated openly that they plan to kidnap Israeli soldiers to trade them for prisoners in Israel. No one objected. They tried and failed twice, bringing limited Israeli responses, and again the Government defended their right to resist occupation. That was as green a light as they can get to try again.
The dynamics that led to the massive 2006 war are complicated and involve many players and their calculations. What is certain is that it was not the result of rogue actions. Their actions were expected and authorized by the March 14 Government and still are.
That is why I have insisted that the two go together. They are not opposed to each other. They are only opposed to any Christian rising to the top. Hariri meets regularly with Hizbullah and praises the resistance and simultaneously has the audacity of accusing any Christian who talks to Hizbullah of treason.
Today, Hariri declared his wants to be Prime Minister and got the support from Hizbullah and company – not the FPM. He also declared that he plans to build as close a relationship with the “resistance” as his father had. He still calls them a “resistance”, not a militia or an illegal armed gang.
Everyone outside Lebanon seems to have expected Hizbullah to come out and spill blood in the streets. Any talk to the contrary was considered political heresy or treason. But, this is the fifth election that an armed Hizbullah has participated in and they never spilled any blood. Even though I oppose Hizbullah’s policies and objectives, I have to give them credit for being extremely disciplined. They are not roving marauders – Shiite hoodlums have always come from Amal, Speaker Berri’s party that people seem to want to talk to instead of Hizbullah.
By the way there was no blood shed at any polling stations. There were a few scuffles that were all individual in nature, and most were not related to any of the parties people expected to do this.
I cannot remember who said that “one of the ironies of life is that no one can harm another without harming themselves in the process”. I paraphrase. All this electioneering scare tactics, and campaigning for international support presented a very bad image that reflects on all of them.
Cadmus
A commentary from Britain. I could not have said it better.
Cadmus
The US must help Hariri
Bucking most predictions, including those of key pro-government figures themselves, the March 14 coalition led by Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated former premier Rafik Hariri, managed to hold on to the majority of seats in the Lebanese elections last Sunday.
Thankfully, and perhaps as a consequence, this comes at what could be a decisive moment for peace building in the Middle East and in Lebanon itself – if, that is, Hariri and his backers in the Obama administration avoid overreaching themselves in victory and move beyond some of the mistakes of the original 2005 Cedar revolution.
Of those errors, perhaps one of the most glaring was the marginalisation of General Michel Aoun’s mostly Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the constituents who supported the party.
In the summer of 2005, after the FPM bloc won an impressive 21 out of 128 seats in the first elections not dictated by Syria – and an estimated (though still technically disputed) 70% of the Christian vote overall – the March 14 coalition rebuffed Aoun’s demand for five cabinet posts that he said were proportional to his parliamentary share.
In the months that followed, the Bush administration and March 14 both refused to accommodate Aoun, believing that in their face-off against Syria and Iran (together Hezbollah’s patrons), they in fact possessed a decisive mandate to rule Lebanon without him and, by extension, without taking into consideration the concerns of his constituents in how that battle might be fought.
The result was the improbable alliance between Aoun and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, in February 2006 that managed to withstand a war five months later (one that would have been far more damaging for the Party of God in the absence of Aoun’s “Christian cover”), civil unrest, economic decline and recurrent civil violence.
The problem now is that even after March 14′s win this weekend, Aoun remains the single most popular Christian leader, with his bloc actually increasing its share of seats, from 21 in 2005 to 27 – a number exceeded only by Hariri’s bloc itself. Although Aoun’s popularity among Christians has declined, it is still evidently substantial and deep (exactly how much less than 70% remains, at this writing, unknown).
Given this, the Obama administration would do well to encourage Hariri – undoubtedly against the wishes of some of his allies – to engage Aoun in a serious manner ahead of cabinet negotiations.
US officials should also end the practice of threatening and condemning Aoun’s supporters (as several did again on the eve of the elections) and repeal the 2007 executive order that uses the US treasury department to target the FPM in America.
More than this though, the Obama administration should rapidly launch a sustained effort to engage Aoun and his supporters directly in a movement to peacefully integrate Hezbollah into the fabric of the state and army – something the FPM has said it very much wants, but which was simply not on offer during the Bush years.
Indeed, now is precisely the moment to forge just such a roadmap – with European and Arab support – when Hezbollah finds its increasingly radicalised and dangerous rhetoric (not to mention its military “entanglements”) badly out of step with the region and, crucially, with its Lebanese compatriots.
As a critical element of this, the US must make good on the empty promises of the previous administration to beef up the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) so that it can credibly defend all of the country.
Although the US has appropriated more than $400m for the LAF, less than half has actually arrived and the aid that has come overwhelmingly consists of light weapons, spare parts and transport vehicles.
Now is the time to marshal support in the US Congress and publicly announce a concrete timetable for releasing the remaining funds and equipment (hopefully with additional contributions from other Arab states) that the Hariri-led government could then use to buy the kind of heavy weapons that the LAF (and March 14) has long said it needs to offer an alternative to Hezbollah’s arms.
Finally, the Obama administration should make good on yet another empty promise of the Bush years: persuading Israel to end the issue of occupied territory and illegal military overflights of Lebanese territory in violation of international law and UN security council resolutions (pdf).
Now is the time to close the Shebaa Farms, Ghajar village and Kfar Shouba files decisively. By turning them over to temporary UN trusteeship, the Israeli government could claim to be strengthening the pro-American government in Beirut – and not handing Hezbollah a victory. (Thus ending two of the main arguments that Hezbollah uses to justify its arms.)
Moving on these fronts together would represent a dramatic departure from the Bush years that saw the Cedar revolution rise (with the support of the FPM) to end the Syrian occupation, but which quickly foundered on unrealistic assumptions of power and a narrow belief in the benefits of using of constant force and pressure.
Complemented by efforts to renew dialogue directly with Hezbollah and the wider Shia community in general – by Hariri especially, since a US role as far as Hezbollah is concerned is politically impossible at this point – the circle of engagement could be completed in an atmosphere that finally seeks to address the legitimate concerns and aspirations of the Shias through a fair political process rather than via the power that comes from having a private army (Hezbollah) or the backing of the world’s sole superpower (March 14) which all too often looked at Hezbollah’s supporters as mere terrorist-sympathisers.
Should that happen, the Cedar revolution might finally be able to claim a genuine Lebanese revolution
The problem is that Hezbollah’s actions predate the occupation of Shebaa farms by Israel, kicking out the Syrians who were there. There is nothing legitimate about the manner in which Hezbollah has acted toward Israel, nor in how it has behaved toward the people of Lebanon. Having achieved power and influence through the Iranian and Syrian strategy of lies, treachery and murder how is it that Hezbollah are now to be trusted. Because they handed out snacks at the poles?
Announcing that their strategy in 2005 was to provoke a fight by harassment and an attempt to kidnap Israelis. Not to mention the rocket attacks. And you claim that it was all okay because the government did not object? How was the government to object when its cabinet members were being buried. When trying to meet was inviting death. A quorum could not be achieved because of the vacant seats and Hezbollah cabinet members refusing to attend, no work could be done. No Government condemnation could be had. And you would have folks believe this was a “green light” for evil behavior?
Giving out cookies to children does not absolve Hezbollah and its supporters of such crimes. There should at least be the offer of chocolate to sweeten the occasion. But I would guess something more tangible and serious will be required before Lebanon trusts Hezbollah, before Syria is viewed as a neighbor and before Iranian Quds forces and mullahs are welcome in civilized society.
How about an accounting of the thousands who are still missing and unaccounted for to their families. That would be a real start on the road to reconciliation and peace.
I did not say it was OK. I have been complaining that the March 14, namely Hariri and Jumblat have said it was OK, gave them Government authorization and continue to do so under a Syrian-Iranian-Saudi pact designed to prevent any meaningful political role for Christians.
The pact includes allowing Hizbullah to remain as it is, giving Iran its extension towards Israel, while Iran allows the Saudi friends to continue to dominate the country’s political system and share their loot with the Syrians. The only obstacle to this pact is the attempt by the Saudis (with help from the US and Israel) to permanently settle 400,000 (maybe more) Palestinians in Lebanon.
I believe I made it clear that I am completely opposed to this pact.
When the FPM led opposition opposed the extension of this pact through 2005 election, the Saudis accused them of being raving lunatics who cannot get along with anyone, and gained world support in their marginalization.
Then, when they tried to capitalize on Hizbullah’s opposition to Palestinian settlement (all Sunnis) and lure Hizbullah away from confrontation and into abandoning their arms, the Saudi-Syrian-Iranian trio went on the offensive. They accused them of treason and a lot of other things, while March 14 continues to deal with Hizbullah unabated.
The US actually implemented a law that would freeze the assets of anyone working with the FPM as an enemy of the state. Yet, Hariri’s regular meetings with Hizbullah, his support for the “Resistance” and Governmental cover are all fine. And, let us not forget $ Billions invested in Syria by Hariri and others, and the numerous March 14 leaders and the UAE who trade with Iran helping it bypass the international embargo.
This is the same pact that brought the Taef accord in 1990, but under a different guise. Then, the Saudis argued that the only way to stop the fanatic Moslem onslaught on Lebanon (primarily financed by the Saudis through Hariri, and supported by Syria) was to strip the Christians of much of their political presence and install the Syrians as the overlords who guaranteed that they never rise again.
The same people opposed that policy as those opposing it today. And, they were ostracized and isolated then as they are today. For 15 years we heard the mantra “necessary, legal and temporary” regarding the Syrian occupation and its agents in Lebanon. Now they have resolved their differences and continue.
Eliminating Lebanon’s Christians is not the road to defeating Hizbullah. It is the road to solidifying the Islamization of Lebanon. At best, as some March 14 Christians dream, this will result in a small isolated Christian state that is hated by its surroundings – definitely not on Israel’s border. The US and Israel have yet to understand that this not to their interest in any way.
By the way, the Shabaa issue goes back t the 50’s when the Syrians first occupied it. Then the Israelis occupied it from Syria in 1967, long before Hizbullah ever existed. It was re-introduced when Israel left south Lebanon to justify Hizbullah’s continued armed resistance.
Also, March 14 has done nothing about the 17,000 people unaccounted for, and they will not. Most of these people were kidnapped and either killed or handed to the Syrians by militias that are now all part of March 14. They do not want this file opened no matter how much people, including the FPM, try. Two years ago some people reported that they know of an area near their homes that had many unidentified bodies buried in it. There was a pretense of digging that did not go beyond 3 feet in the wrong place, while the people were insistent they dig somewhere else. Then those who reported the sight were arrested for false claims to insure no one else comes forward. March 14 call the FPM grave diggers for insisting that all known sights be opened and the bodies’ DNA tested to at least grant closure to the relatives.
I am sure you disagree with the above, and believe that March 14 is simply incapable of facing down Hizbullah and Syria. Whether they CANNOT or WILL NOT, the end result is the same. Why not consider alternatives? The West can at least talk to the FPM and listen to what they have to say, and what they can do. Obviously they scared the others into an unprecedented rallying of a global offensive.
There must be something real they are afraid of.
Could it be the simple idea of Democracy, equality and the rule of law? These principles are anathema to Arab autocrats and theocrats, and scarier than anything else one can can put forth.
Cadmus
There is something to be said for fear, Cadmus. What is it Hezbollah fears? I think first they must fear having to be responsible. That would cause them to pay too much attention to the results of their actions. Hezbollah does not want to win politically and does not care about democracy. Hezbollah wants to be left alone to wreak havoc on whomever, whenever it meets their fancy. Because they set themselves on the path of terror in the beginning of their existence and because nothing about them tells a different story, the notion that their is a political wing of Hezbollah is a lie. They use political action to gain power just to keep their guns and ability to run roughshod over others. It is the political wing of Hezbollah that is a facade and a false face.
They would use you to gain power, then slit your throat. They use Syria to gain access to Iranian weapons, money and training. They are terrorists who take advantage of other peoples fear to have their way. What happens when they are finished using you? Do you think they will say thank you? Do you think they will leave a hundred dollars on the table, tip their hat and leave? How many communists (having played a huge role in overthrowing the Shah) are there in Iran today? How many evangelical Christians are there in downtown Tehran courtesy of Jimmy Carter?
What does Syria fear?
What do the Saudi’s fear? Despite the cynicism, they act in their own best interest in the overall scheme of humanity. Syria’s Bashir, stirs and deflects but never does it engage in original actions. Iranian Mullahs, it seems to me, are too twisted and too isolated to act rationally. The house of Saud and the Iranian Mullahs want power. Syria wants respect but cannot earn it.
As an intelligent man I am sure you could use that to your advantage. The problem now for Lebanon is how to break free of Hezbollah without having your throat cut in the process. You could actually work out an agreement and resolve nearly all of your internal issues except for that elephant in your living room. It is not just March 14th’s problem, it is yours as well.
Wadeusaf. Yes, it is everyone’s problem, and not just the Lebanese. Unfortunately for the Lebanese, they have to bare the brunt of it.
By “you” I am assuming you are counting me among the FPM. I am not with party. I have always been independent, agreeing or disagreeing with people and parties based on what they do or say. I have disagreed vehemently with the FPM and Aoun personally on many occasion as I have done with others. My concern as a Lebanese-American is the safety and interests of both the US and Lebanon and the respective populace. And, I have never seen a contradiction.
Both countries would greatly benefit from re-establishing a democratic free system in Lebanon and terminating the wars that have plagued Lebanon. Lebanon’s benefits are obvious. The US will regain a true ally that shares its interest and a beach head to effectively introduce modern political principles into the region.
Iraq can never be the starting point, as it will take decades for them to learn it. Israel will always be considered an alien body by the Moslems and cannot be it either. Lebanon is the natural place to start, and it had started back in the 70’s, which is the main reason so many Arab regimes wanted to put an end to it. Most Lebanese Moslems had adopted democracy and freedom as a way of life and many other Arabs were starting to have the “me too” syndrome. All the free thinkers took Beirut as their base and were starting to have an effect on public opinion.
My main concern at this time is that the US and many Lebanese are being blind sided by those who do not want any of this to happen.
I am also not sure how you take my words to mean a defense of Hizbullah’s policies. I believe I was clear that this is a deal between Hizbullah, Hariri, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria. They are all working on slitting throats. All I said is that Hizbullah is extremely disciplined and not roving marauders. That in a way makes them much more dangerous. But, it also makes it possible to talk to them, as disciplined people will do what they believe is possible as opposed to randomly reeking havoc.
A good analogy for what is happening in Lebanon and has happened several times is the story of Wallace in Scotland. If you have not seen the movie “Braveheart” watch it and would understand. Wallace fought for Scotland’s independence, but was repeatedly betrayed by the land barons who put their own narrow interests ahead of the people’s interests. The land barons turned out to be a bigger problem than England’s Long Shank. They got their lands and the people be damned.
Looking at Lebanon today I find all the good people who truly fought for Lebanon’s independence (not the profiteers who killed for money) conglomerated in one group. It is not just the FPM. Right beside them is the “Assembly for Lebanon”, which includes almost every prominent name in the fight against an Islamic take over of Lebanon, from all parties. There are also many other Christians and a large number of Moslems who ache for their freedom and do not want to be ruled by Iran, Syria or Saudi Arabia and definitely do not want Lebanon to become like them.
Those people also do not want to be robbed by politicians who have stolen more than $100 Billion Dollars from the country in the past 20 years. That is $25,000 per person, or the equivalent of $7.5 Trillion Dollars relative to the US population. You think Obama is bad. Eh? He managed to pull the wool over enough eyes to win the elections also.
These guys fear the rule of law as much as Hizbullah. They all oppose Democracy and accountability, equality for all, the rights of the person not the religion or sect, etc. The FPM wants to put them on trial for steeling and killing and destroying the country. They want to sue Syria, Israel and other countries for damages. They want to hold all accountable to the law. Do you think any of them want the FPM and its allies to rise to power? They are working with Hizbullah to stop them, occasional disagreements not withstanding.
I never believed Hizbullah was anyone’s friend. I said they found common interest in stopping the settlement of the Palestinians in Lebanon and the rise of Sunni fundamentalism, and the FPM tried to use that common interest and Hizbullah’s cornered state after 2006 to gain mileage on other fronts. I really never agreed with how close Aoun got to them, but he seems to believe it was necessary to survive and move forward, and referred to their stand on the election law among others, which at least allowed his parliamentary block to grow. It also removed the pressure off the FPM Shiite membership to expand the party’s presence and popular base – The FPM is a secular party aiming to end sectarianism and does have a lot of support for that principle even from people who oppose the stands Aoun has taken.
For the record, the South Lebanon army that fought Hizbullah for 22 years was almost 80% Shiite. It was always referred to as Israel’s Christian allies, but it was not. The Shiites are not all Hizbullah. There are many active Shiite members of secular parties in Lebanon, including about 15% of the FPM two of whom ran for Parliament last Sunday – one won. The incoming block includes one Shiite and two Druze members. The outgoing block included two Shiites and one Sunni. The party includes about 30% non-Christians, but they all believe in equality for all, and they believe that removing the Christians from Lebanon will transform the country into another Islamic country with no rights for anyone. The Shiite FPM member who lost this election in the central Bekaa is spearheading an official complaint that there was a direct conspiracy against the Christians in his district. Yes, a Shiite defending Christian rights. You will not hear that on MSM.
Today, listening to what the FPM and its allies are saying, they appear to realize that they are alone again, since Hizbullah has turned back to coordinating with Hariri and company. I have always said they were alone. Hizbullah’s deal was a temporary tactical move.
However, I ask you. Is it logical for the US to consider the one party in Lebanon that espouses and promotes the same principles as our founding fathers an obstacle to implementing those very principles and turn to autocrats to help implement democracy? That was long before the FPM even talked to Hizbullah.
Does anyone, including Israel really want Hizbullah gone? Do they believe that threatening Lebanon daily with total destruction and refusing to equip the Lebanese army is the way to do this? Does the push to settle 400,000 Sunni Palestinians in their midst convince them to lay down their arms? How about the continued Arab support for an enormous arsenal in the Palestinian camps that the Lebanese are not allowed to address? Can they be that naïve? Or, is it a whole different game plan?
UN resolutions include a ban on Israel violating Lebanese land, air and territorial waters. By violating UN resolutions on a daily basis, Israel is in fact strengthening Hizbullah, not weakening it? How can anyone convince the Shiites in South Lebanon to abandon Hizbullah, with all this and Israeli jets break the sound barrier over head several times a day?
Furthermore, how has Hizbullah been getting all the weapons that they supposedly received since 2006? There is a huge international naval armada patrolling Lebanon’s coast for the express purpose of stopping that. There are 15,000 or so UN soldiers in South Lebanon and the Government claims to be against Hizbullah’s arms and patrolling the border and ports with international monitors. The US and other countries have diverted satellite capacity to monitor Lebanon’s border with Syria.
How about all the Israeli over-flights and Israeli satellites? What about the vast network of Israeli spies operating in Lebanon? (68 have been arrested in the past two months and another 30 or so are believed to have fled the country)
That is a massive amount of monitoring. Yet, we are to believe that they smuggled 40,000 mid-range missiles through all this, without anyone noticing? Do you believe this? Not a single shipment was spotted by anyone? Not a single bullet was stopped?
I for one am not that naïve. No one is that good. I know if they got all these weapons, someone (probably more than one) saw them and let them through. Who is allowing the weapons through and why?
Or, maybe there are no weapons coming in at all. Just the pretense to make all this story sound more legitimate and get the world to clamp down on the Lebanese. Get everyone to help Hariri “stop Hizbullah” with Saudi and Syrian help, and attack anyone who stands in his way. And, deny the equipping of the Lebanese Army, as it could get to Hizbullah.
A few points to think about. Who is really supporting Hizbullah? Who benefits from its continued presence as an armed “Resistance”? It is no the Lebanese, and definitely not the FPM and its secular allies.
Cadmus
It is not a part of the UN mandate in So. Lebanon to challenge shipments or distributions. But then you knew that. It is an impotent force that has bullets for self defense but cannot legally do anything but separate two forces. They have protected Hezbollah more than anything as Hezbollah has been unable to do anything truly stupid so long as the UN Peace Keepers are there. And still you think Hezbollah are a legitimate group to talk to about peace.
Cadmus, I was impressed by Chubby Checker in his day, but this conversation takes the twist to a whole other level. What started out as a serious conversation has been taken to new lows. I am not entertained by your responses and I can not take them seriously as they are obviously not seriously given.
Talking about lows, Wadeusaf.
I object to Syrian-Iranian-Saudi deals through March 14 and Hizbullah at the expense of Lebanon’s Christians and you accuse me of supporting Hizbullah. Very Curious!
I wonder why you are so eager to discredit Lebanon’s Christians and deny their right to exist. Or, maybe you want all of Lebanon to disappear. You sure sound like the propaganda team that supports Saudi control over Lebanon, and attack anyone who opposes this, particularly if it involves any Christian rights. I notice you continuously defend Sunnis and Saudis and throw all the blame on the Christians.
You even deem inexcusable any attempt to use Sunni-Shiite disagreements to gain some ground for Christians.
I do not intend to entertain anyone. I aim to expose the truth that the Saudis, Syrians and Iranians are still working together to subjugate Lebanon’s Christians. And, they have people like you defending them and holding the Christians responsible for crimes committed against them. I am very serious in exposing this diabolical scheme.
After rallying the world to defeat the Christians in the election on the premises of Hizbullah arms, Hariri declares today that he wants the best relations with Hizbullah and Syria, and he put the “resistance weapons” outside the realm of any discussions. The Saudis confirmed that there will be an all inclusive deal between Hizbullah and Hariri. This is the same old story from your friends the Saudis and Hariri, who legitimized Hizbullah for the past 20 years, opposed any Christian take a leading role in Lebanon.
Today, the US and European peace envoys to the Middle East met with Hizbullah to discuss “peace”. Everyone meets and negotiates with Hizbullah, directly or indirectly, and insists that the solution to their weapons can only be done through negotiations.
But, the Saudis and Hariri want the deal at the expense of Lebanon’s Christians as they have before. As such any Christian political role or talk of freedom and democracy is considered an act of political heresy.
Dhimmism is allowing superior others to make decisions on your behalf, even if come at your expense. The Lebanese Christians are not Dhimmis and will fight to the very end against that. If the world wants to make deals with Hizbullah at the Christian’s expense, then the whole world is working on turning them into Dhimmis. Is this your aim?
Read the UN resolution. It specifically includes a commission to assist Lebanon in intercepting weapons shipments. It also holds all countries responsible for any sale by their nationals or using their flag vessels.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8808.doc.htm
With all the monitoring I listed earlier, and not even a single sighting reported, it becomes clear that either the world is turning a blind eye to Hizbullah’s arms, or the whole story of re-arming is nothing but a pile of B.S. Take your pick.
I do not think this is in any way entertaining. It is a crime against millions of people.
Laugh and be entertained, if you must.
But, many of us believe enough in the cause of freedom and democracy. We believe enough in the rights of Christians to live with dignity in Lebanon that we are not willing to simply surrender to Saudi style theocracy and Dhimmisim, which you so ardently defend.
Are democracy and a continued Christian political role in Lebanon such scary thoughts for your friends?
Are you so afraid that readers may look into the facts I present and realize that they have been fed a bunch of lies that you need to respond to factual discussions with insults?
Cadmus
What facts, Cadmus. What support have you presented for your “facts” NONE. You offer hearsay, you do not even bother cite a source for your accusations. I have tried to check your stories out.
I offered you fact, supported it, and gave sources or at least a relevant means to fact check. You offer…nothing but twists and distortion. If you wish to convince anyone you need to present fact, not opinion and support it with documented sources not hearsay. Otherwise it is something less than propaganda and serves no thoughtful end.
Your last opining was shameful, in its attempt accuse someone else of running guns to Hezbollah. Pure unadulterated nonsense that you want me to take seriously. Really?
When you chose to engage in a serious discussion let me know. Better yet let the Christian population of Lebanon know, they deserve to be taken seriously.
UN resolution 1701 like UNR 1559 before it called upon all foreign and domestic militias to disband. Hezbollah had attempted to avoid its obligation under 1559 by calling itself something other than a militia.
Why should anyone believe results from the passage of 1701 would be any different than the results gained from 1559? The details of how to accomplished the laundry lists agreed upon have in fact nullified any effective capture of arms other materials. UNIFIL does not have the authority to carry out the resolved items, and the Lebanese Army hardly has a presence in the area where arms smuggling and bunker rebuilding are continuing apace. How much of that cement do you think Hezbollah promised to rebuild civilian homes. How much of it was used to reinforce bunkers instead.
There were other items in the laundry list, which were not accomplished, like the prompt return of the Israeli soldiers.
Come on, get real.