VOA reports that North Korea has claimed a new nuclear weapons test.
embedded by Embedded VideoNorth Korea says it has successfully conducted an underground nuclear test, defying international warnings and raising concerns over its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang said Monday’s test was more powerful than the country’s first test two-and-a-half years ago. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency also reports that North Korea test-fired a short-range missile just hours after the nuclear test.
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Experts quoted by the Los Angeles Times put the blame squarely on the United States, for I suppose, not offering North Korea enough to desist from threatening the neighborhood.
As the international community condemned North Korea’s nuclear test and missile launch today, analysts said the tests signaled Pyongyang’s growing disillusionment over the U.S. refusal to conduct bilateral talks. North Korea’s ailing leader Kim Jong Il, determined to seek more drastic measures to bring the Obama Administration to the bargaining table, could even carry out more nuclear tests as a way to bully the U.S. and its allies, experts said today.
The question one faces when negotiating with regimes like North Korea is whether any level of protection money will ever satisfy it. A shopkeeper in a rough neighborhood who gives a thug money to go away and never to come back is sending the signal to come back. Extortion is North Korea’s main and only industry. Anything it receives is a “sale”. Why should it not want to sell more? One of the questions Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu asked was what the Obama administration would do if its attempts to contain the Iranian nuclear program by diplomacy failed. It may be recalled that Pakistan, a country whose stability has been questioned recently, is building two large plutonium reactors unconnected to the electricity grid. Most experts think the Pakistanis are radically increasing their nuclear warhead production capacity. The question is why and what that development portends. MSNBC reported:
Without any public U.S. reproach, Pakistan is building two of the developing world’s largest plutonium production reactors, which experts say could lead to improvements in the quantity and quality of the country’s nuclear arsenal, now estimated at 60 to 80 weapons. What makes the project even more threatening is that it is unique. “Pakistan is really the only country rapidly building up its nuclear forces,” says a U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the classified nature of the issue, noting that the nations that first developed nuclear weapons are now reducing their arsenals. … the billions in U.S. economic and military aid that have permitted Pakistan’s military to divert resources to nuclear and other weapons projects.
Is this North Korean test evidence that they can achieve a high order detonation now? How will the US respond, besides calling for an emergency meeting of the Security Council. What will Japan do?
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How’s that working out?
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Short answer to that last question? None too well.
The LAT even acknowledges that the NorKs are bullies and then fail to draw the conclusion that anyone learns when they are six years old. Maybe they think we should respond by flooding the North Koreans with a saturation attack of Guidance Counselors and Social Workers. What would the Geneva Conventions say about anything that cruel and unusual?
Is Obama deliberately trying to engage in a calculated policy to convince the members of the Armed Forces that the country is so feckless that it is not worth fighting for? No one wants to be the last person killed in a war. Who wants to be the first person killed for Obama? If he can convince the professional officer corps to either retire if at Field/Senior grade or quit if at Junior grade then he will have no barriers to his plan to restructure both the military and America.
There are links from North Korea to the New Party to ANSWER and Acorn to Obama.
North Korea’s like a neighborhood pervert in a gun-controlled town who keeps hinting that he’s going to rape the girl next door. The sheriff can’t do anything because the pervert never quite crosses the line into overtly illegal behavior; he just acts like a menacing creep. From time to time this sick neighbor takes delivery of a truckload of pornography and unlicensed guns (according to the Security Council) and keeps hinting he’s going to do something real nasty unless someone pays him off. Nobody in the neighborhood wants gunplay and the current sheriff would like to see if offering him a job at the gas station and sweet-talking him will produce a change in behavior. (Not regime change but behavior change). But so far he’s reacted to the fact that the sheriff hasn’t paid him a courtesy call by making more threats and acting like a worse creep than he normally is.
The problem before the sheriff is whether to a) arrest him for jaywalking despite the fact that it will almost certainly result in gunplay just to get it over with; b) warn the creep that if he goes past a certain bright line he will be shot, law or no law; c) give the girls in the neighborhood a permit to buy guns to defend themselves; d) put together a neighborhood delegation and try to talk some sense into him and e) wait until the creep actually breaks the law and be ready to shoot him down. Alternatively the sheriff can start a campaign to outlaw all firearms and throw his own into the smelter to gain the moral high ground.
My guess is that the creep will go as far as he dares. How far that is depends on the signal the sheriff and the community send. In reality I don’t think there will be “behavior change” until there is “regime change”, unless Kim is overthrown internally or the leopard changes his spots.
Is the sheriff even interested in anything besides redecorating his own house? All this neighbourhood stuff is a distraction.
Wretchard,
b) warn the creep that if he goes past a certain bright line he will be shot, law or no law
What the law is that the sheriff is supposed to be enforcing is a predicate. The law is the bright line. If North Korea’s actions are not considered sufficiently threatening to justify a response under current International Law then we can debate whether the law needs to be changed, that is the bright line redrawn. Under current law the NorKs are in violation of both Security Council resolutions and of the 1953 Cease Fire. The problem is therefor worse than in the example of the sheriff and the creep. The grounds for arresting or shooting the offender exist but the sheriff is afraid to go in after him and the neighbors are afraid that if they do then they will have to feed all the starving children the creep keeps in his basement.
After all these years of watching the creep take the delivery of lots of nasty weapons, its virtually certain that if the sheriff goes in after him, all hell will break loose; and there’s the possibility the creep will get the backing of the leader of the Tongs, who he is reputed to be close to. Unfortunately, with each passing year the creep’s arsenal gets bigger and his demands get louder. The town fathers have sent him letter after letter admonishing him for his behavior, threatening to send him an even more emphatic letter. So far, no response except a demand for more money.
There’s a big incentive to kick the can down the road at this point, because attempting an arrest now has become very complicated indeed.
Just after I moved to California there was a horrifying story in the news. A pedophile had raped a 10 year old girl up at Big Bear Lake and then tried to kill her by hacking her arms off. The child ran down the trail, “holding her arms up to keep the muscles from falling out”, got some medical help, and survived. The caught the pervert, and, presumably since it was only attempted murder, only gave him 20 years in prison.
Twenty years went by and here in Florida there was a news story. The guy had gotten out of jail and moved to Tampa. People protested his presence in the neighborhood, which as it turns out did not last too long. He raped and killed a woman and then committed suicide.
Obama is just bringing this same enlightened approach to international affairs. Pedophiles are at worst simply sick and at best just someone with another point of view. Since the time when that girl got her arms hacked off, professional psychiatric organizations have even published analyses asserting the positive benefits to the child of a sexual relationship with an adult. After all, when you think about it, is in not our narrow-minded views that led to the girl’s disfigurement? He only did it in self-defense, so to speak.
A recent interview with a community activist in Koreatown in LA revealed her attitude toward North Korea. Safe behind the Pacific Ocean and U.S. military might, she asserted that the North’s belligerence was all the fault of the US. The North Koreans were just misunderstood and, even more so than the rest of Korea, had been badly abused by foreign countries. It appears this view is not uncommon among South Koreans. I wonder how she would feel if the poor misunderstood guy involved in that little mishap at Big Bear had moved next door to her instead of to Tampa?
I predict Japan is gonna test their first nuclear weapon in about 6 weeks.
The solution to the man outside of town is to go extralegal and kill him by surprise. An assassination if you will. The excuse to the Tongs is a random murder. If the Tongs take retribution then go to war with the Tongs.
Now NK leader is not a lone pervert but protected by a military and has generals that will take his place. So the problem is not to just kill him but his generals also. Harder to do since they are not in all one spot. Takes intelligence, which is difficult.
So the quiet assassination is not possible that leaves non-quiet means.
Now the question is the US, the town? No, SK is the town, so this up to SK. The cease-fire means they are still in a state of war and any provocation can restart that war. The children of SK have built a playground in reach of some of the best artillery.
Roh tried to bribe NK and it did not work. Now SK has to figure out if they are going to war or not. So far they are not in danger. What happens when the western nations do not bribe NK again?
Will NK shoot a missile toward Hawaii? WE still can pulverize NK with nukes. Messy but possible. But instead we will shoot down any missile and shout loudly.
The big question is how far will NK threaten war to get food and money? What will SK do if the US walks away?
The anti US sentiment under the last PM changed fast as soon as Rumsfeld suggested it was time to withdraw from SK. We have been there for over 50 years and SK has rebuilt its military and should be able to stand on its own.
I suggest this is not our problem anymore. Get our troops out and let NK invade SK if they want. China is the Great Power and they can have the responsibility.
Of course Japan may object and quickly militarize. But the long-term probabilities are that China will control the Pacific region not the US as we have since WWII.
The WOT and the Afghanistan and Iraqi Wars were the last gasp of our policy of fighting wars far away and our post WWII policy of foreign engagement.
America has always had an instinct to be a turtle and withdraw to our shores. With Obama and the isolationist impulses of both the right and left I think our time of being the world’s policemen is diminishing. Australia is starting to realize that they need to defend themselves. New Zealand is still clueless.
We are not ready to let go of Europe yet but that time will come also. The Pacific people will survive under a Chinese hegemony but India will not. That exchange probably will be nuclear. India does not have strong enough Navies, Air Force and Army and enough nukes to succeed against China. China is smart, ruthless and been planning their dominance for longtime. They showed in Ceylon that they are the power to trust.
China has not adopted the internal weakening of PC, multiculturism that has so bedeviled the west.
I know that this is depressing but we made a critical choice that will be hard to recover from when we elected the liberal PC wing of our electorate. They are the blame America first party and they will help preside over this death of the American era.
I was wondering why the RT newswoman seemed to be smirking and somewhat amused by the very serious story. Then I thought, what exactly is the emergency meeting at the UN going to accomplish. I recalled the scene from Team America: World Police. Then I laughed too. Not a hearty laugh of amusement, but an ironic laugh that it takes a couple of stoners in the entertainment industry to tell us the truth.
It seems that Iran is sending a message too. Coincidence?
A client test for Iran?
Nope, the world is gonna wait till that little bastard nukes somebody or sells a nuke that is used on some country and then the choice will be upon us.
1. appease and feed this dangerous animal.
2. shoot the rabid beast down at first chance.
3. send a strongly worded letter.
“Choices” George Jones
RAH: I agree.
“I suggest this is not our problem anymore. Get our troops out and let NK invade SK if they want. China is the Great Power and they can have the responsibility.”
1. Saturation nuke the NORKS! – only NORKS lose life (fantasy – will never happen)
2. Tell South Koreans the US will be pulling out of their country very soon in 12 months or so, tell the Japanese we will be out of their country in 24 months and last tell the Astrailians they are on their own!
Now we all know which way “0” would go (This would be a big win politically for the “0”)
The punk in the WH hasn’t got the balls to do anything to defend the country. He’s an empty sack with an empty sack and will blow however his strongest adviser tells him to blow. We were damned lucky to have a man like GWB in the WH on 9/11. If we get hit with something while this bastard is in the WH, all that will happen is a chorus of “why do they hate us so much?”
It’s going to be a damned tough job cleaning up after this scumbag and there’s no guarantee it can be done. The Dems and Bama hate this country and they’re doing everything they can to destroy it. They may well succeed.
Well, we’ve been fighting the communists all these last 60 years only to wake up one day and find one in the White House. I’ve become a neo-isolationist. If we can’t keep from sliding into facism light, or socialism, or whatever you want to call this latest version of statism, then how can we ‘keep the world safe for democracy?’ Whatever we do, we’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. Let the world have what it wants: tin pot dictators with nukes, apocolyptic nut jobs with nukes, unstable islamist nations with nukes, pirates running free in major shipping lanes and a hegemonic China to take care of them all. We can’t win the battle in the rest of the world if we’ve lost the battle at home.
Of course, this will not end well.
But there’s nothing we can do about it.
My foreign policy is that I am an internationalist and I believe in taking care off little problems before they get to be big problems. Practical and realistic. If an allied ruler regime is so corrupt that it endangers our foreign policy clean it up or replace him with a better ruler.
I thought in 2004 that we should have eliminated Sadr before he became a big problem. Not just arrest the bastard but permanently disappeared. He did become a problem. It is not hard to see the issues and people that become big problems and cheap to get rid of those early. However our overly moralistic viewpoint tends to get in the way. I agree with morality but not always in foreign affairs.
Just that the last 40 years our government is assuming more childish and irrational ideas and policies. There are some moments of rationality like Reagan and Bush 2 but those Presidents are so overwhelmed with a few initiatives that they are unable to roll back the liberal indoctrination in our programs and education systems. Reagan had the economy, stagflation, which he solved, but it took time and the steps to kill the USSR, Star Wars and fight back on the small wars. Central America and East Europe.
Now the loony left got their guy and he is a Marxist and running roughshod over the structure of our economy and government. He is clueless and a poor planner for long-term strategy for a country that he is torn between urges to tear down or build up.
So he is incapable of protecting or pushing our foreign power and dominance. Israel knows that and Australia and Japan is figuring it out.
It is unlikely that a GOP President will be able to do much other than fight a war or two and resurrect the economy. They will not be able to undertake the underlying indoctrination of our education and populace. They will not be able to change back the federal programs that contribute to the infantilization of our people.
Of course Obama may really screw up and an idiotic enemy may do that by attacking our homeland again. That will energize the anger and this time severely because many are suffering in this country and want to vent their anger on a villain.
I do not wish that on this country and I think it unlikely. But some dolt blew a NYC Starbucks this morning so our homegrown wanabe terrorists are starting the summer off with a bang.
I knew we were entering dangerous times and the inexperience and communist nature of Obama was the wrong choice. But our fools voted him in.
He has big problems and is incapable of making the right choices and proper strategies. He is still living in the liberal past.
If I were the leader of Israel I would be upgrading my nuclear capability. Same with Japan and Australia. Now we know why everybody is buying guns and ammo. Same instinct.
Britain will get an authoritarian ruler sooner or later to deal with the increasing anarchy. France will murder it Middle Eastern immigrants since they have them in a semi- ghetto. France has deliberate policy of non-assimilation. Just wait the French have ruthless streaks. Germany will probably split up. A smart Poland may make a move to get Germany. These are all long-term probabilities
Biden was very prescient about the challenges that Obama would face. Too bad.
Our economy reduces the ability of the US to bribe the NK thankfully. This is SK and China’s problem. Let them deal with it.
Witness the awesome power of the fully operational State Department!
I would be surprised if there were any response other than a stern warning from the Security Council and grave words from the “International Community”. There isn’t the will in Washington, or Brussels or New York to go further than that. At the outside there may be renewed consideration given to letting Japan re-arm, or at least prep up to it. Even that will be accompanied by loud and vociferous “regret”. But mostly the politicians will stick their head in the sand, give speeches and hope something turns up.
It seems like the world will become a progressively more dangerous place with each passing month. Nothing sudden will happen at first, just a slow and cumulative sliding, like a string of climbers zippering down a cliff, pulling out one stopper after the other. Which belay will hold?
The anchor of last resort used to be the US. But that now spells O-B-A-M-A. I guess the buck stops there. One hopes he’ll rise to the occasion. But realistically, what are the odds?
Joe Biden for idiot savant of the year. He said Obambi would be tested in his first few months. And here it is.
You’re talking about the 4 options available when dealing with a rogue state.
1. Appeasement
2. Deterrence
3. Retaliation
4. Pre-emption
Appeasement has the problems we’re all familiar with. It’s also easy, and it’s often used under the excuse that the other options aren’t possible. During the 1930s France and the UK should have realized that if it was their only option, they needed to build a bigger military to give them more options. I believe we’re seeing the same arguments in regards to Iran and North Korea. If we have no military option, we should build a bigger military.
Deterrence has the problem that the leadership of a rogue state may not be deterred. For instance, the fear of bombing in the 1930s in Western Europe made the UK and France believe that Germany could be deterred by the threat of bombing cities. Hitler was not deterred. Deterrence against a country with no public input into decision making becomes uncertain. Perhaps Kim Jong Il believes all the bunkers and tunnels will let him survive a counterstrike. We don’t know.
Retaliation is saying “if you do this, it’s war.” This is like the Allied guarantee to go to war over Poland. The problem is that retaliation gives the initiative to the enemy, eg letting Germany decide when to attack Poland. And it can start a war you may not be ready for, which is what happened in 1939.
Preemption is what we did to Iraq and what the Allies should have done in the 1930s. It’s having a war now rather than later. The problem is that you can’t predict the future, and successful preemption will be second guessed. Ask George W. Bush about that. It has the advantage of keeping the initiative and going to war when you’re ready, not the enemy. Israel became a master of this because they had to.
This list is lifted from “War of the World,” Ch. 9 “Defending the Indefensible,” by Niall Ferguson.
Wretchard the odds are not good at all.
We are somewhat safe due to the fact we occupy a continent with big oceans. We have nukes and not all people in the branches of government are drinking the koolaid.
If our enmeies are smart they will allow us to implode on our own, However rarely do emotional enemies have that patience. China does but not Russia , NK or Iran.
Nk is starving and they have to push. Maybe SK will give money and food. But I expect the meglomania of NK will start something that will result in shootong match with SK.
The next missile that flys toward Japan will be taken out. That have sat on too many and getting really nervous.
As to changing the head of our government there are ways. Impeachment comes to mind but that has to be done for cause. No cause yet. Better to get rid of Pelosi and make her step down. I rather have Hoyer as the third possible succesor. He is more rational and can count votes. He is not a loony left but a rational liberal.
The emotional feeling in the country is very tricky. I have no confidence in our rulers to know how far to push without getting a push back.
I hope we can wait till 2012 but we do have changes in 2010 that will happen. We do tend to shift back and forth between extremes and parties.
The thought that the US should be shown for the paper tiger it has become since the last election by the Mullahs and Kim Jon Il raises irony to it’s acme. Why oh why could we not have been shown up by the Chinese or Russians? Why these little pipsqueaks? And to make matters worse, Kim doesn’t want to destroy us, he wants us to buy him off. And if we do not, if we stop paying protection in Wretchard’s terms, he continues a policy that leads to our destruction. It’s the classic example of a parasite that eventually kills its host and hence itself. When he has exported enough nuclear weapons to enough terror groups someone, Japan or S. Korea, will finally decide he’s gotta go. I hope we survive that long. F
What is it about all of these tinpot dictators, They are always dressed up in cartoon uniforms. Look at the size of the General’s hat as he is standing next to the outlandish cartoon character of Kim.
Obama will take the lead that Russia gave which is the emergency session of the UN. Sanctions will be argued and then vetoed by China.
China does not want to feed the NK.
Obama will wait and then restart the 6 party talks and all goes back to standby. Iran will ratchet the next step with another missile launch.
I am waiting to see if Obama quietly walks away from nixing missile defense and building in Chezk and Poland. My guess he will walk back from that soon and quietly. That was not a big issue with the left and he will be allowed to continue with missile defense.
The big next issue is Georgia and Russia. Russia want to grab the pipeline so it has to get Tbilisi and Putin wants Shastkavilli’s balls. So in another month or so Russia will move against Georgia and intimidate Ukraine back into its fold.
I note that China has been pushing our Navy in the east and will probably push to get rid of Navy presence in the China Sea especially our underwater mapping that is dangerous to their subs.
We certainly live in interesting times.
John Lynch/22:
I believe we’re seeing the same arguments in regards to Iran and North Korea. If we have no military option, we should build a bigger military.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Just expanding on my terse comment…
1. In the past there were clear indications of co-op between NKor and Iran in the nukes area.
2. How would Iran test their nuke design without arousing a suspicion? They would set aside a shipload of cash and send it to NKor with their design for testing. Everyone would be pointing at NKor (as if they care, cold cash is a cool thing to have despite presses running 24/7), Iran has the “wuzn’t us” plausible deniability and an element of surprise if they deploy before “experts” would even get a whiff of their readiness.
Let’s call it a hunch.
23 RAH:
“If our enemies are smart they will allow us to implode on our own, However rarely do emotional enemies have that patience. China does but not Russia , NK or Iran.
Nk is starving and they have to push. Maybe SK will give money and food. But I expect the megalomania of NK will start something that will result in shooting match with SK.”
There was a book and a bunch of articles written on the theory of “population pressure” and it being the root cause of war. It went into the various types of population pressures and what governments did about them.
But starvation was one of the prime movers because a starving population will do ANYTHING to alleviate the hunger. Imagine yourself sitting outside the window of a fine dine joint and watching the swells eat and then throw away more than you have had to eat in a week…
“Maybe SK will give money and food.”
Socialism between countries. Maybe if people wouldn’t give. The population would self correct?
I agree that the US needs to rebuild its military bigger but that where all the budget cuts are being made. So Obama will punt this one down the road. Besides Israel will take the lead on Iran. They are the closest and in most danger.
Japan will talk to China and build it military. It will start a nuke program, 3 months for them since the have the know how and tech base.
China will pressure NK to be quiet in the meantime. China does not want Japan to be a competitor in the Pacific militarily.
The interesting comments will be the lower level communication between the US Navy, Japan and China.
If NK sells a nuke to an agency that uses it against the US then all bets are off. Obama would not be able to constrain our need for vengeance.
It all comes down to the will of our President, doesn’t it?
With our system of government, if we don’t have a President with a stubborn will to defend our country in times of attack and crisis, we are lost.
We don’t even know:
A. If Obama even wants to defend America’s interests.
B. And if he does, that he has the competence and will to do so.
C. That his loony left friends will let him defend America.
I fear these probing threats from Iran. the Norks and Pakis are just a way of gauging the will of our Dear Leader. A way a gauging for a much bigger strike.
I’m afraid the report card so far on our exalted One is a big fat F. He has gone to extreme lengths to show the world we are not to be feared when a attacked. There is no evidence of a will to fight and defend in him at all . So I have begun to fear days like today, Memorial Day and Independence Day; days that celebrate past American Exceptionalism, past American dominant victories and our past brave will to fight and succeed. If I were a terrorist, I would strike on a day like today, just to spit in the face of America, and to show the world how how weak and cowardly America under Obama has become. I fear we have become Osama’s weak horse; a country that can be cowered, rolled and defeated.
29. 2×4:
It wasn’t cash sitting beside the test bomb. It was fissile material (and probably oil) for NK to make a few for himself.
President Obama will look the feckless, corrupt United Nations for leadership & do absolutely nothing except give a pointed speech. Our enemies have already sized-up Obama to be a wimp & coward.
I think NK will overstep. Bullies do that, finally, because their whole strategy is based on overstepping. Which gives them no internal guidance on how close to the “final line” they are coming. And there is always a final line. Occasionally that final line is collapse of those whom the bullies intimidate, i.e. they succeed (for a while). Usually that final line is hellacious pushback from just one more little provocation. I see the NK situation as approaching that end state. I just hope it’s SK and Japan that step up to the problem, not us. Because it’s going to get messy.
RIght now would be a good time to short SK stocks, I think. Maybe SE Asia markets generally. Sad.
RAH, agree with your analysis and prescriptions. The best thing we could do now is evacuate the Korean Penninsula as quickly as possible. That will send a message no-one in the region wants to hear, but one that it is imperative be received and acted on, the sooner the better.
For the record, the test was correctly predicted by One Free Korea and John Bolton.
john lynch,
From Yes Minister:
Sir Humphrey:
In practical terms we have the usual six options. One do nothing, two issue a statement deploring the scene, three launch an official protest, four cut off aid, five break off diplomatic relations and six declare war.
Jim:
Which should we do?
Sir Humphrey:
Well if we do nothing we implicitly agree with the speech, two if we issue a statement we just look foolish, three if we lodge a protest it will be ignored, four we can’t cut off aid because we don’t give them any, five if we break off diplomatic relations we can’t negotiate the oil rig contracts and six if we declare war it might just look as if we’re over-reacting.
- The Official Visit
22/JL — Thanks for the book recommendation.
During the Iraq war, anti-war activists were fond of saying, “Bring the troops home.” Many of them were Europeans who believed withdrawl of American forces from Iraq would end the war and humble America at the same time. At the time, I thought we should do so, and publically suggested we begin by bringing home all American troops currently stationed anywhere in Europe. Better yet, redeploy some of them to Iraq in order to increase our military presence there. I think we would have seen very quickly some significantly revised opinions in Europe. Not only would American defense have to be replaced with local military, the effects on local economies would have likely been severe with no more Americans and their generous spending habits.
Here’s what tyrant-in-chief Obama and his goons will do; issue a statement “strongly” condemning the test, followed by spineless rhetoric and threatening sanctions, blah blah blah. Ever notice how NK always seems to slap the USA in the face by conducting their tests on or near major patriotic US holidays?
The rationale for the US presence is that our troops were and are a trip wire. If they got killed in an artillery barrage then we take out NK. I just think that that is no longer a good idea.
1) SK has built its own forces and need to recognize the danger and decide which way to jump, appeasement or war. Plus we had military command the SK has now grown up and like a parent we need to let go. This I been thinking for the last 10 years.
2) I have no confidence that Obama or any new administration will handle it correctly. They are like to do a land war and gets in unprepared in a war with China and lose or withdraw and loose more prestige. I do not want the blood of US soldiers to be wasted to no good effect.
3) NK is China’s creation and China has to take on the responsibility of its insane creation rather than just aim it at the US.
4) Too many of our enemies reflexively aim their puppets at the US and foolishly allow these irrational regimes to gain too much control or resources and nukes.
5) These enemies need to learn the cost of having unruly puppets and learn to control them before they bite their own hand.
6) Plus China occupied with controlling NK will stop them pushing Pakistan and India to war.
7) If NK gets to be a real problem I prefer the long-range tactic of taking them out by long-range missiles.
9) So even the pull out of our troops gives a message that we may use nukes and has to make NK pause or China to pause and push NK to better behavior.
Now back in the bad old days (about twenty five years ago) there was a fellow of just the sort Wretchard describes in #3. He had a whole town cowed. But they could never bring him to justice because of corruption in the system. So the solution was everyone shot him at once. There was a TV movie made with Brain Dennehy, In Broad Daylight, based on the story. You can find the trailer here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmildYEFFU0
So if everyone nukes North Korea at the same time…
Several thoughts. Wife is Korean, met in San Francisco, married in Saigon, naturalized in Guam. Family in Korea but not close to them. Family in US who still do keep in better touch with things in SK. Apparently many South Koreans believe that North Korea already has explosives in tunnels under Seoul. Every once in a while a North Korean tunnel gets found, but they are believed to be extensive.
South Korea has remained in a state of political adolescence because of American military umbrella. Economically they have become very prosperous but they have not stepped up to the plate internationally. Japan, to a lesser extent, has also, but Japan has the excuse of the MacArthur Constitution.
In Viet Nam, the South Koreans had a (deserved) reputation for efficiency and brutality. (White Horse Division and Tiger Division, for example, in II Corps.) They also had a reputation for sticking together against outsiders, including Americans. “If you stepped on a Korean soldier’s boot in the PX, you realized you’d just stepped on the boots of a whole platoon”, my friend the flame track gunner told me.
(I was in III corps and only saw the Korean troops in non-combat situations. They were always pressed and spit-shined and got on and off transport together under the close supervision of an NCO. No slouching, eyes front. They had thier own places to blow off steam, but my wife and often ate at a restaurant that was owned by a group of Korean officers. Only proper kimchee in Saigon.)
Worked with a lot of ex-military Koreans in RVN. Did martial arts stuff with them in Saigon. Some of them had stories, as all soldiers do.
This was at great variance with the ROK forces during the Korean War, which ranged from pretty damn good to pretty dismal. But post Viet Nam, the South Korean government pulled in their horns and has pretty much hidden behind the American military umbrella. Presidents Kim Dae Jung (“Communist!” said my mother in law.) and Roh Moo Hyun were conciliatory towards the NorK’s and not supportive of the South Korean military.
On paper, the South Korean forces should be able to hold their own against the North. The problem is that Seoul, like Washington and Richmond during the American civil war, is too damn close to the border between the two countries. North Korea does not have the same vulnerability.
I’m sure that some of the folks on this blog have served in South Korea. Thoughts? I know that the US and South Korean forces wargame against an attack from the North, but Seoul is vulnerable. Same thing happened in 1950, which is when father in law got “disappeared”.
I think it’s time for Tough Love and bring home the US troops. Maybe keep some air assets remote from the DMZ: that would still serve the trip wire function and are multi-purpose. China remains the elephant in the living room, but I don’t think they are ready to rock the boat yet. Time to make them choose between their investments in US paper and their client state in Pyongyang.
Interesting comment about the Korean psychology. They do think as a unit. “All for one and one for all”
When Cho did the massacre at VT, the Koreans thought America would blame all Koreans and apologized even though they were not responsible. We believe in individual responsibility and the believe in-group or racial responsibility. No American blamed Koreans for Cho’s action we recognized it was an individual action. But the Koran system of honor is affected by actions of relations and even no relation is they are the same race.
I wonder if we can manipulate that somehow to our advantage against NK?
Many good points above, and can’t find fault with them. Unfortunately, it seems like we should have brought the troops home a few years ago. If we do it now, doesn’t that send another sign of weakness to the world? I would think the Iranians would love to be able to point out that we ran from an ally.
If Obama allows this to force him to bilateral talks – he really HAS BEEN PUNKED by Kim.
And our leverage in the region vis-a-vis China is eroded too – since China pretty much owns most of the U.S. debt now.
I’ve been recommending for awhile now that we take a “hands off” approach to the Norks.
No reason to go head on with them – we aren’t at war with them.
What we should do – is simply announce that the Nork’s can do what they wish as long as they don’t do it to one of our allies (i.e. South Korea or Japan).
Tell Kim that if he fires a nuke at an ally – we’ll shoot it down and then pave his nation with our own nukes. We need to have the guts to tell him that – and to nerve to do it if he ignores us.
If he believes we’ll do it – he’ll back down. It will be ages before he has enough nukes to penetrate our missile defenses with any effect and, by then, we’ll have perfected the art of missile defense.
We really are in a pickle here – and a defensive posture is all we can take in this case. But in reality – it’s all we really need.
We will not stop NK and Iran from gaining nukes. Better come up with a plan for that. The only thing I can come up with is a new version of the old Cold War “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction) policy. Call the new one “YAD” – Your Assured Destruction.
Make it suicide for these nations to launch a nuke. Period.
Actually the concept of losing “face” is an Asian one and if we pull out, they may figure we are weak. But they already think that and we don’t care so much about “face”. Get our troops and let’s go. The Chinese may figure the next message is that we will use long-range weapons rather than lose troops.
We can loan a carrier to Japan and a few Aegis missile ships. They already have some. Have a boomer sub visit publicly at Japan. Japan has freaked at nuke powered and nuke armed ship visiting before, but they may not now.
A lot of ideas to pour through… One that sticks out is that much of our wealth in monies and brains have been devoted to national and international defense for all these years.
Probably has a lot to do with the fact that we want to maintain a US and allies safe environment. Seems like this has lead to build up of resentment in different pockets of the world…
Let’s not be the nanny state for the world anymore. Let’s have the Chinese and the Koreans fear the Japanese once more. Let’s have China, with hostile borders surrounding its “empire” fear for its own existance from a nuclear far east, SKorea, Japan, Taiwan. Let’s have them spend 1/3 of their budget on defense.
Let’s also focus on our own survival and not so much concerned with other’s survival. I’m as much a free market, free ideas guys as the next fellow but maintaining it definitely not free for us (though free for Toyota, Honday, Sony, bunch of outsourcer in India).
Land of freedom and opportunity has turned into a global handout for military stability and market dump for cheap doo-dads.
I’m a direct beneficiary of the US interventionary policy in the Korean War. It hurts me to say this but perhaps too much of a good thing has finally run dry. Like the socialist nanny state in domestic terms, perhaps it is now time for US to draw the curtain in Pax Americana.
Sam–
It’s not that easy. Remember that when the British Empire started to decline, it led to two world wars. Which the British did not escape…
Anybody who wants to accuse conservatives (or American Democrats, if any of them survive–not sure about that; they’re very quiet these days) of making things up about obama’s danger to America just isn’t paying attention.
Absolutely nothing has to be “made up” about this narcissistic paper tiger. When he’s not shooting holes in the ship of state himself, he’s providing endless opportunities for others to do so.
I really am beginning to think that there are few, fewer, fewest registered and elected Democrats who are willing to stand up for our nation. Their silence is becoming deafening.
Weak leadership always, always increases our vulnerability to weak (but vicious) enemies.
I rarely comment here but I almost always agree with the general consensus. Not today.
I agree with pushing SK and Japan to beef up more on defense (and Japan already is to be sure), and while we might hurry them along in that path by threatening to vacate the region, we’d only be sending yet another message to our allies that they can’t depend on us when things get difficult, bad bad idea. On top of that, doing so now after NK’s weapons tests makes it look like we caved to them in appeasement. Furthermore, having troops on the ground in SK is a diplomatic and deterrent card that should not be thrown away.
Not to mention China. We shouldn’t do anything to make the Chinese think that the Western Pacific is now their backyard.
NK’s in bad shape, we all know this, it may fall within a year or two. When that happens, can anyone honestly think it’s a good idea for the US to be completely absent from the region?
There’s too much doom and gloom about the end of the American era. We may be entering a new isolationist phase with a Community Organizer in Chief in charge, a recession, and a populace “worn out” by Iraq/Afghanistan, but that doesn’t mean we ought to becoming isolationist once again. As some here have pointed out, to do so would be to risk major world conflicts.
The decline of America as the world Superpower is not inevitable by any means. We forget that most other countries are being hit harder by the Global Recession than we are (they were all financially less secure to begin with, and are dependent upon exports to us that we’re not buying in the same quantities). America may emerge from the recession weaker, but we’ll emerge relatively stronger compared to many countries.
The rest of the world may have grown soft under American protection. But as much as they all need to grow up (and I really do think that Japan, India, and Australia are and should be sent clear signals that we’ll have their back in the decades to come), the consequences of America vacating the world stage, would be disastrous.
This has ceased to be our problem.
The Norks are unable to field a weapon they themselves can deliver offensively at the United States, at least for several more successful tests of both nuclear weapons and their launch systems. One missile can be intercepted, between the assets at Fort Greely and Vandenberg. Hawaii is a problem, but if the SM-3s can take out the warhead (I would imagine that given the distance involved, any North Korean missile will be flying more like an ICBM than an IRBM, making this a bit less likely) then there is some possibility of protecting Hawaii.
North Korea’s neighbors, on the other hand, have a bit of a problem. None of North Korea’s neighbors want the Japanese cranking out nuclear weapons with the efficiency of Toyota, the Japanese nukes will undoubtedly be smaller, more reliable and get more KT to the gram than anyone else’s. China in particular doesn’t want a regional power of equal nuclear standing, I don’t believe anyone doubts that Japan would have a large nuclear arsenal within a few years.
Nothing of significance will happen without China’s blessing, so I say we welcome them to the big table, with all the attendant risks and benefits thereto. It should be communicated that this is China’s problem, that we are neither going to attack unless directly attacked nor contribute another dime to North Korean support. Pull our troops out of South Korea and leave them our phone number and a promise to call them back if anything gets too serious for them. Sell Japan anything it wants in terms of antimissile systems, from PAC-3 to THAAD to our entire ABL program lock, stock and barrel. If Japan tests a nuke, we decry the regional situation that makes such things necessary and carefully avoid criticism of the Japanese. What happens in North Korea stays in North Korea, until they perform some action that directly affects the USA. Otherwise, we will note their tantrums and move on.
Given the choice of adding another province in all but name or facing a nuclear-armed Japan I have to believe that China would cut a deal with the North Korean generals and take control, at least behind the scenes. The South Koreans are too rich, and too aware of the burden than East Germany was and is for the former West Germans to be interested in reunification, and as previously mentioned, they have some nice suburb and exurb property that is at risk. Mines are cheap, and they’ve been planted on the border for years. The South Koreans are well-prepared for human-wave attacks, which is the best that the North Koreans can muster.
The only thing Obama can respond to militarily, given his worldview, is a conventional attack by conventional forces on United States soil. I don’t believe he’ll even release nuclear weapons if something like Seoul was destroyed by the same. The reannexation of Georgia is a done deal whenever the Russians want it to happen, Obama will not respond to so little provocation and get roped into a Vietnam-like situation. It is a crappy time to be an American ally, but these are the cards, and so we play them.
On the US in South Korea, we already have pulled off the DMZ. That happened with Rumsfeld. We’re already in a trajectory to leave South Korea to its own devices. Actually, if you look at US military deployments all around the world they are declining almost everywhere. We’re seeing a retreat from empire.
We can rationalize it by saying “they need to learn to look after themselves” but it is what it is. It’s not quite to the point of pulling the legions out of Britain in 410 AD but it seems to me that the decline in American military capability and prestige is evident to everyone.
A look at the 20th century will show that empires in decline are very dangerous.
I think that American retreat pushes South Korea into China’s orbit, but that may be a good thing. China isn’t going to want Korea to self-destruct. Perhaps the Chinese Empire will move in while we move out.
I’m not excited about American imperial decline. With the social-democratic policies being pushed by the current administration, and the apparent desire of the American people for a less warlike and more socialist government, it seems to be happening pretty quickly. With the budget the way it is and the proposed increases in social services, defense spending will have to be radically reduced. That’s the experience of Europe and we’re not immune to the same pressures. It won’t go down much this year but by next year it will have to be cut as the deficit continues to grow. Paying for Iraq and Afghanistan has to take priority over training for conventional operations which further erodes our military options elsewhere.
That will have an enormous impact all over the world as states that used to count on us for defense rearm to defend their borders. Japan will probably be forced to develop nuclear weapons if it wants to maintain an independent foreign policy. China and Russia will become active in the Middle East to maintain their oil supplies (in Russia’s case to disrupt the competition). India becomes important as a counterweight to China.
I think the small wars with various Muslims are going to be a footnote, like the Boer War, compared to what’s coming up. The reemergence of a multipolar world with many Great Powers will be a lot more interesting and violent than the last 60 years.
Fabius– I agree with you that none of this is written in stone. Nor is it desirable. I think we’re making a huge mistake wasting our money on pensioners and health care rather than making the world a better place by suppressing warfare and encouraging democracy and open markets.
I’m dismayed that so many people are going along with it without thinking the whole thing through. Of course all this money for deficit spending and health reform has to come from somewhere. Why aren’t people connecting the dots on this? I see a lot of angst about deficits in general, but not about the consequences. Spending has to be cut somewhere. Defense is the only thing large enough to matter and unpopular enough to cut.
On the other side, the “tell the damn Koreans and Japanese and Europeans to look after themselves” argument is isolationism. It’s admitting that the US empire is declining. Whatever the arguments, it’s an admission that we should no longer enforce the peace in far off parts of the world. That’s rationalization. “Not our problem.” Well, it will be soon enough.
John Lynch,
I hear you on the spending issues. It’s unconscionable that we make “tough cuts” in defense spending when the defense budget amounts to about 3.5% of DGP–less than under Carter!.
There seems to be a nice irony in the parallel tenants of not caring about spending and deficits (“I need my ‘free’ entitlements and damn the costs”) and assuming that foreign policy events are none of our business. A narrow minded self-centeredness.
My own hunch about the “decline of empire thesis” is that American could be going through a transitional phase, sort of like the British “first” and “second” empires around the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. Temporary retraction and shrinkage of empire now, but when that new multipolar world emerges that you (I think correctly) predict, the instability will necessarily draw us back into the mix.
The main danger to the US is not NK but the Paki’s increasing the bomb production for sale. We need to increase our alliance with India because India is the card to play against Pakistan nuclear proliferation. India has a large population are an expected threat to China. If China is diverted by having to take care of their puppet NK that allows us to try to reduce the Paki nuclear threat by bribes, intimidation or whatever. Iran is Israeli meat. I trust that Israel can reduce Iran nuke capability.
Pakistan is falling to the Taliban and the Islamic jihadists. Jihadists are the threat to us with small wars and destruction to civilian populations. Remember more than any other enemy AQ came closer in 9/11 to wipe out our government but that plane went down in PA.
I agree that the Muslim wars will be small potatoes but we are not capable on taking on the big war with China now. Not with Obama in power and our current economic situation.
Better to have China delayed with absorbing NK and all the costs that will take. China economy is hurting right now also.
Plus we have been reducing our troops in SK under Rumsfeld and that goes with Gates plans also. So we have Obama wanting to ratchet down.
Our Navy will work with Japan with or without Gates approval. Missile Command is about to revolt over Obama failure to turn on the big radar in Hawaii last missile launch.
I can expect some inventory losses if necessary. Remember the Navy is pissed with Obama over the pirate handling for Captain Phillips. Obama wanted a negotiation and the Captain said screw it we are taking the shot.
Obama has left the army out to starve in Afghanistan without a good supply line. Kind of like his lack of planning on where to dispose of Gitmo prisoners.
Already the CIA is gearing in trying to damage the Congress and Pelosi and the other Democrats with a 1000 leaks of embarrassing material. This is war between bureaucracies and I expect the DOD to start as soon as they know that Obama is trying to string them along.
Fabius– I think that economically that Western civilization (US+Europe) is declining relative to China and India. However, militarily we don’t have to decline. We have a huge comparative advantage in military power with hundreds of years of Western military science and tradition with a huge military industrial complex. That’s hard to match and I doubt anyone is going to be able to for a while.
So there’s nothing inevitable about US fecklessness while we watch weak countries become regional powers under our noses. We could rearm and I think we will eventually be forced by events to build a larger military. I feel like we’re the British in the 1930s refusing to rearm because the expense is too great despite obvious threats. A major war, especially one that we lose, is far more expensive than deterring one through overwhelming strength.
Unlike the British we are stuck with an enormous deficit. They actually had a fairly balanced budget even during the Depression. We’re rapidly closing the door on all options but unilateral disarmament through lack of funds. Our nuclear stockpile is decaying from lack of maintenance, research and testing. The nuclear upgrade program was canceled and we’re relying on designs from the 1980s and before. The Navy is shrunk to a little over half its Cold War peak. The army is smaller than it was in 1991. Our economy is larger, but we’re not keeping up on defense spending despite having equal or growing commitments compared to the Cold War.
For this situation I blame George W. Bush and the Republican Congress. They could have increased the size of the military during the window of opportunity after September 11. They chose not to. That was a mistake. We can’t rely on gee-whiz technology forever. Everyone else will catch up with the precision weapon revolution eventually. Then we’re just back to leadership and training. We have a lead on that, but we still need to have the mass for a conventional war or we’ll end up like the BEF in 1914, destroyed by enemy numbers.
Oh, and as for being cut off in Afghanistan I thought about it. If we did get cut off by Pakistan we would have to leave. But the men would get out.
We’d fly them out. We’d have to leave the equipment like at Dunkirk, but the men could be airlifted out pretty quickly. The big jets can hold hundreds of men and there’s not that many soldiers in Afghanistan. It might take a thousand flights but we could do it. The Air Force and Navy could control the airspace against anything the Pakistanis or Iranians could put in the air.
That would be a huge fiasco, but we wouldn’t have to lose everyone.
It is easier to berate Obama for the willful naivity that led us to this point than to lay out a plan for what to do now.
Trying to be constructive, one thing that Obama could do would be to use weaknesses as strengths.
A quiet behind-the-scenes conversation with the Chinese — take care of NK’s nukes soon, or bid farewell to your trillion dollar stock of Treasuries and your unlimited access to the US consumer market. A noisy public reversal of his decision to stop production of the F-22. A major public redirection of “stimulus” spending into expanded missile defence. And an announced timetable for withdrawal of all US forces from Europe and South Korea.
Of course, he would have to dismantle the edifice of excessive regulation which has driven US industry offshore — earning him left-wing hatred. But does he have any better option?
Kinuachdrach,
If I wanted to do something concrete, I would re-deploy tactical nuclear weapons (if there are any left) to South Korea. I’d move some nuclear capable bombers to Guam, and I’d put an extra carrier battle group in the Sea of Japan. I’d put some nuclear-armed Los Angeles class subs off their cost with lots of Tomahawks aimed at their missile sites. Standard Cold War stuff. It’s “OK, you want to play with nukes, we have more.”
Yes Fabius, indeed the world will be a much worse place without American hegemony. But the world asked for it. Begged for it. Threw roadblocks in our way whenever we tried to defeat tyranny. Blamed us for anything bad that ever happened and failed to acknowledge the good that we did. Being the world’s policeman is a thankless, expensive and dangerous job. Now, with Obama, we are going to be the world’s apologist. What a joke.
But what were we fighting for? Freedom? Democracy? (we should rather have been fighting for constitutional republics that gauranteed basic rights, private property rights and the rule of law, but let’s not quibble) So where are we now? Facing the loss of our own freedoms. The slide into statism has been going on a long time, but now with government control of banks, insurance and auto companies the slide is greased. We are also facing the loss of the rule of law. America has become a place where the elite, moneyed, powerful and connected get preferential treatment. It started with the Kelo decision, but continues with the Chrysler bankruptcy, and down into the election fraud perpetrated by ACORN.
In other words, there is no possible way we can fight the rest of the worlds battles for them, when we are losing our freedoms and way of life right here. I agree this won’t end well. And also, at some point, we will be drawn back in.
However, we need to defeat the enemies of freedom at home before we can defeat them overseas.
There’s really no reason to think of the US as being in decline. It’s demographics are healthy, unlike China’s and Russia’s, or Europe’s. India is an ally. North Korea is a basket case. Iran relies solely on its resource wealth, as does the Arab world. George Friedman of STRATFOR is in Sydney for a writer’s klatch where he will argue that the 21st century will truly be the American century. Well it ought to be, if you look at the basics.
What could go wrong? Self inflicted wounds. A rush to a catastrophe. A pathological tendency to self loathing. If the US simply kept up its strength and acted soberly; if it reformed Washington. If it recovered its civic culture and debated the moonbats. If it regained the confidence that is normal to a country which has achieved much; which China feels; a confidence that is not afraid to tell idiots to go the devil instead of pandering to them when they want to raise or lower the oceans or build towers to sequester carbon while everyone lives in a hut; a confidence that looks out at the Solar System instead of gazing into a hairy navel — if it did these simple and ordinary things, then it would be a light and a beacon to the world.
The future is mankind’s to lose. I hope we don’t lose it to the hucksters and the bad-hair midgets.
Wretchard, you’re exactly right.
However, that’s a long list of things that need to go right, isn’t it?
Why are we so paralyzed? Why can’t we do simple things that we used to be able to do? What’s going on with our leaders, our elite? There’s nothing wrong with the fundamentals but with the decisions we keep making.
I think we’ll be OK, but it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
“It’s going to get worse before it gets better.”
Ha! That’s meant my own private mantra lately. I think it was posted here a couple months ago, that I saw a Niall Ferguson video on the Recession, and he made the exact point that the US will emerge from the economic downturn comparatively stronger than the rest of the world because we’ll be viewed as the safest place for people to put money in, even though we started this mess. Any port in a storm…
Wretchard’s point about India/Australia is well taken. India has become a potentially huge ally (one of the great unsung legacy’s of Bush) just in the last ten years or so. Even if the rest of the world goes to pot, all we might have to do is hold on until India saves the day…
If things do get worse before they get better, America still has a plenty big enough cushion to recognize the problem and get its act together. Things looked plenty bad during the Carter years, hardly anyone predicted the Reagan revival.
We’re the sleeping giant; we just lie around until things get dramatic enough to make it an interesting show.
wretchard said:
“If the US simply kept up its strength and acted soberly; if it reformed Washington. If it recovered its civic culture and debated the moonbats.”
For some goofy reason (blame it on Gramscian subversion), the US got it in its head that allowing moonbats to lead was a good idea. This is going to cause a whole lot pain. If the system survives (huge “if”) then the pendulum will eventually swing back.
buck smith said:
“I predict Japan is gonna test their first nuclear weapon in about 6 weeks.”
It’ll take longer than 6 weeks but it’s coming.
Why would Japan trust their national security to obvious flakes like Obama and Pelosi? The Japanese are not that stupid. Japan will fill the vacuum that the US under Obama is creating. I might add that the rest of the world is going through a similar thought process. This is part of the pendulum swinging back.
I would add that our conjectures about What Is To Be Done all presume a President and a Congress willing to discard all ideological considerations and do some hard and obvious things. As far as dinner table conversation goes, I see nothing wrong with this, the exchange of ideas will enlighten the participants here, and I can’t commend Wretchard enough for this site, his writings, and what I’ve learned from him and the commenters here.
But President Obama is constrained, by his own background and beliefs if nothing else. He is further constrained by the Congress, and that collection of backgrounds and beliefs. The range of options open to him are few and narrow. While he could order B-2s to Guam and then pancake any extant facility in North Korea, there is nothing in his background to suggest he ever would. While he could patently ignore North Korea, how can he resist an opportunity to move boldly on the world stage, or even display for us the proper pronunciation of “Pyongyang”, as he does with Pockystahn? He and his supporters so condemn the “cowboy” mentality that doing anything unexpected or forceful is just not going to happen. The face of America under Obama will never even momentarily show the patented Mel Gibson “I’m going to kill them all” glassy look from the Lethal Weapon movies, and as such those opposed to us need never fear or even consider an untelegraphed punch. Our deterrent sword is firmly sheathed, and we’re left with what we can do by talking or spending, though our ability to spend is shortly to be limited.
This is why I say this is China’s problem. They’re closer, they share a border, and they can act. The US can act in theory, but within the bounds of ideology espoused by our current administration the US has no play here. The best thing that can happen is that the President ignore his instincts and does nothing, a tacit acknowledgement to regional players that it’s their problem now. Our allies have not shown an inability to handle themselves in the past, and having skin in the game, are much more likely to do something our President cannot. After all, his moral purity is already more important than the safety of the citizens he is sworn to protect. Why should our allies, who can’t even vote, feel any safer?
Unfortunately, it seems like we should have brought the troops home a few years ago. If we do it now, doesn’t that send another sign of weakness to the world? steeple @ 46
I agree with pushing SK and Japan to beef up more on defense (and Japan already is to be sure), and while we might hurry them along in that path by threatening to vacate the region, we’d only be sending yet another message to our allies that they can’t depend on us when things get difficult, bad bad idea. Fabius @ 52
Leaving the penninsula does not necessarily equate with vacating the region or showing weakness. But taking our ground troops out of the direct line of a crossfire would at this juncture seem to be a prudent expedient and, should push come to shove, remove a possible inhibition on our military options. Any initial actions we might need to take in response to N. Korean aggression could be done from Japan or other nearby positions (so at last, the suggestion to redeploy to Okinawa makes a semblance of sense.) Aside from the other excellent reasons provided (requiring S. Korea and China to accept responsibility and make plans accordingly) the pullback would cause the suspicious among the N. Koreans to wonder just what the hell we were up to. When the ocean precipitously retreats, that is no time to go surfing.
True story: Many years ago, when I was about 12, our small town was possessed of a local juvenile deliquent, a ne’er do well, a young man who was the subject of whispered rumors among my grammar school friends of vile acts. In short, a pervert. I was aware of who he was, and listed with widened eyes and naive shock to the things he had done. Everybody in town knew he was no good. He had been in and out of the system a few times already, and was currently free to roam the town.
One evening at dusk, he took an unholy interest in me. He cornered me in a shed on our property and tried to rape me. He got just far enough for me to know what he intended, down to the hand clasped over my mouth to prevent my screams. I discovered one thing then: adrenaline is your friend. Somehow, despite my small size, I managed to squirm out of his clutches and run into my house. I told my parents. I don’t really remember much what happened after that. I think the police were informed. I don’t know what they did with him, since he fled the scene immediately.
All I know is, whatever they did, it wasn’t effective, because a few weeks later he was back. Riding up and down a side street on his bike. Stalking me. Up and down the street he went. Biding his time, I suppose. That’s when I took matters into my own hands.
I told all the little girls in my neighborhood what this guy was, and what danger he represented. The girls were all various ages from about 6 to 12. We had a lively discussion of what to do. I wanted to do something to make him stop, go away and leave us alone. Rocks and sticks were mentioned, but I dismissed them. I didn’t think they would be effective in harming him. I wanted him to be hit with something he would remember. We finally decided on gum. Remember, this is a bunch of little girls were talking about here. The plan was to ambush him on one of his passes, and stick gum in his hair and on his leather jacket. That, in our girl minds, would be something he would remember, as he spent hours pulling it out.
So down to the local ZipMart we went, and armed ourselves with wads of bubblegum in the usual way. Then we lay in wait, this posse of little girls. When he next rode by, we all stood and threw our gum at him. I should state that my nerves failed me, and I didn’t even get close to him. But the littlest of the girls did, the 6 year old ran right up to him and stuck the gum right on him. Lesson number two: sometimes the smallest are the bravest.
After that, we scattered, and this nasty, tough 16 year old chased me. All the girls went straight down the alley to my yard, but I ran in the opposite direction. I would like to say it was because I bravely wanted to divert him from my companions, but sheer terror had overtaken my mind and I was simply fleeing for my life. I ran around a neighbor’s house and hid behind some evergreen bushes. He found me there and I will never forget his words: “Now I have you where I want you.” I had thought those bushes were solid, but I went straight through them like a hot knife through butter. I ran around the corner and caught up with my younger sister, who was crying that her legs weren’t big enough for her to run fast enough. We all made it over the fence and into the safety of my yard. Adrenaline was still my friend.
After that episode, the pervert never bothered our neighborhood again. So what is the lesson? The adults in my life were unable to stop a menacing predator. But a bunch of pre-pubescent girls took care of the job, in our own girly way.
People really don’t like perverts and bullies, and will take care of business even as the adults stand around wringing their hands over what to do. I wonder now who is going to step up, form a posse and chew the gum?
Who needs a Secretary of Defense when we have a Secretary of Deference?
The Norks set off a nuclear blast
Without a by your leave
Our leaders say they are aghast
That Kim would so deceive
Us when we have assured him that
We’re friends now, don’t you see
No more the Bush Cheney diktat
We’ve goodies for you, free
And yes we know it’s all our fault
That you act as you do
We thought your testing you would halt
If we were nice to you
We really don’t know what to say
Nor how we should react
To how you’re forcing us to pay
For our own suicide pact
63.wretchard
“There’s really no reason to think of the US as being in decline”
“The future is mankind’s to lose. I hope we don’t lose it to the hucksters and the bad-hair midgets.”
Your entire post (and many of the others) …so good to read and think about.
I agree with your argument about not assuming the US is in decline, in that our infrastructure and potential RIGHT NOW is still somewhat intact.
However, there are some other factors:
1. The things that obama has already power-rolled into place will be “bearing fruit” and damaging our infrastructure forward for the indefinite future, causing increasing weakening of our foundations.
2. The existing leadership in all branches of government seems to be doing a group deer-in-the-headlights thing, and appear to be unresponsive. Based on his over-ruling of contract law alone (banks and automakers), it would seem that there should at least be some discussion of potential Articles of Impeachment (even if that discussion needed to be described as a trial balloon).
Nobody is stopping him. I truly have the feeling that he has just begun to move down his checklist, based on things he has stated publicly in the past about how he would like to change America.
3. The catastrophic multi-layered events that he is setting in motion (along with the idiotic Congress) are occurring so quickly: it would be enough for elected officials who actually desired to do their Constitutional duty if they began to respond to 2 or 3 of these things. But things are rolling out at the rate of 3-5 every ten days or so. There is simply no organized response occurring and we are getting farther and farther behind in potential pushback with every day.
Here’s my dream team:
a. Somebody wind Fred Thompson up (so that he will speak out loudly about PRINCIPLES day after day after day). He makes so much sense when he TALKS! But he doesn’t seem to stay motivated for some reason.
b. Somebody else get Dick Cheney scheduled from here on out, anywhere he can talk to anybody with a mic. AND DO NOT LET ANYONE FROM THE RNC ANYWHERE NEAR HIM.
c. Set up some kind of liaison for Mr. Thompson and Mr. Cheney with Heritage Foundation as 24/7 research and factfinding.
d. As the crap continues flying, the self-starters of America will find their own place to plug in from day to day. Do NOT organize from the top down. But somebody at or near the top with brains has to start acting like they care…and DO SOMETHING about it, day after day and week after week.
Dick Cheney has given the country an undeserved jump start.
Well, we shall see what we are made of. My points 1, 2, 3 above are the ever-spiraling mud-balls, barreling down the mountainside, knocking down bigger and bigger trees, and I have yet to see anyone who presently holds office and who presently has legitimate power doing anything significant to stop any of those mudballs.
The other day my son went to Baltimore on a job and this was his first day at the site so he was uncertain of the location. He stopped his car to look at the map and a carjacker opened the door and tried to pull him out. My son is 19, lean and has a temper. The seat belt was still on, so my son did not get pulled out. The assaulter pulled out a knife and my son unhooked the seat belt and got out and grabbed the guy’s knife wrist and twisted and slammed him against the car and then on the ground. Got back in the car and drove home.
My son believes he broke the guys wrist. The point is he didn’t think about it, he just reacted defensively. The assailant never expected his victim to fight back.
We better get the world afraid of Americans period, not just our wimp of a President.
We showed that on 9/11 when the passengers took down the plane rather than be used for evil. Americans still have that spirit even if our leaders do not.
70.WALT
Groan. What you wrote is so good and so to the point. Yes indeed: we have a Secretary of Deference.
I would guess that one thing we don’t have to worry about for the forseeable future is getting schedule time for His Cluelessness to go to summit meetings with our allies.
The ones who aren’t laughing their heads off and ducking for cover aren’t going to waste their time meeting with the United States on anything of significance any more. What’s the point (for those who truly have adult concerns and who truly would like to see Western Civilization survive)? What would be the point?
He doesn’t even know WHAT to say, and when he’s said it, it doesn’t mean anything. Our enemies and wannabe enemies are all going to do exactly what they want–nothing to fear from this corner of the world.
Are any of these particular bad guys talking with Chavez?
Hmmm…
Appeasement.
Kicking the can down the road.
Conciliation.
Letters of regret.
What DO they have in common?
Why, the response of a feminized, female-dominated society, that fears above all, War (because it makes soldiers more powerful, and the men who build weapons, and women less powerful). The “Cold Civil War” as some have dubbed it is nothing more than the gender reflection.
North Korea is most assuredly our problem because their missiles can reach Hawaii, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest. They’ve threatened us.
I’m sure that if the US were hit with a nuke, Obama and his female backers would surrender. After all, Obama has dreamed (and so have his female-oriented backers) of a Vichy America all their lives. One devoid of even a whiff of masculine power, instead focused on more preferences for transgendered people of color or stuff like that.
As a practical matter, the collapse of the Pax Americana has Japan frantically nuking up, and Israel no doubt increasing it’s arsenal as well. For survival.
As for Europe, both Britain and France are in race with the Scandinavian nations and Spain to see who can surrender first and the most to Islam. European women want the surrender, the better to fight their “real” enemy: their male peers.
Whiskey, I first was glad to see your comment and it is somewhat on the mark as feminization of policy. I just call it wimpy. But your constant woman hatred and blaming is getting me annoyed. Your analysis is generally good but you seem to always veer back to your one track of the reason for all evils is women. Reminds of the parable of Eve created sin by eating the apple.
I also believe that the increasing liberal or feminization is a reason for the foolish thinking and can see that. But Obama is a male, just a male that is quick to attack political enemies but he has yet to identify himself as the role of President of America and attacks on America are attacks on him.
Right now his standard ploy it was all Bush’s fault. But that is getting old. He still has his first liberal instinct to trash America first. His job is to defend America but he has not accepted his jobs role.
Not to worry! Obama will issue a statement that will make Kim Jong grow pale with terror:
“I am very, very, very, very disappointed that our good friends, the North Koreans, would do something so unfriendly.”
Then, quietly, The Next Messiah will transfer a trillion bucks to Kim’s checking account, followed by several hundred billion tons of rice.
re: #69,
Good for y’all. I am glad you didn’t get hurt or worse.
In WWII the major powers (UK,France, and Germany) lost a huge chunk of an entire generation of young men. This meant tens of millions of fatherless children, being raised by single mothers and grandparents. It meant shortages of labor in all segments of society. Teachers, welders, architects, surgeons, dentists, veterinarians, chefs, carpenters, middle managers, estate agents, barristers, not to mention soldiers and sailors.
Paschendale, The Somme, Verdun had – as the saying went – bled France white. Hundreds of thousands of young men ground into the mud of no-man’s land.
At times I’ve collected old National Geographics. A few years ack I came across one from 1919 with a travel ad in the back “Come to Europe and see the battlefields before they all get plowed and planted.”
A lot of people at the time applauded Neville Chamberlain’s “Peace in our time” fluttering worthless treaty.
In the 1930′s, the United States’ military comprised a tiny fraction of the armies that had been mobilized for the Great War. In 1939, active duty U.S. military personnel were less than half the number of all US deaths from the Spanish Flu epidemic 1918-19.
Once the United States entered the war, a massive build-up was achieved, not just in training military ratings of all types, but also in mining, agriculture, ship-building, aircraft design, development and manufacture, munitions, medicines, medical trauma training, communications, etc. The United States created a self-sufficient artificial polymer rubber industry to replace the latex from Japanese captured South Pacific islands.
It will be interesting to see how the country awakens once the hands of self-mutilating self-loathing delusionals are removed from the helm.
(Of course, by entirely legitimate but emphatic means…)
79. Mad Fiddler:
How long you reckon it will take the U.S. to build new manufacturing facilities if we need to? Maybe they will hold up a minute while we situate ourselves. I do not believe they fight under the Marquis of Queensbury rules.
Sorry, we have limited ourselves to small engagements. If SHTF and the world catches fire. WE will be bit players until it becomes a nuclear contest. Just not enough uniforms, guns, ammo, tanks and no way to raise production levels if we need to. So even though we have 100 million or so able bodied men and women to fight. WE couldn’t get them trained in less than five to ten years. Just not enough facilities.
80 JFSanders: I fear you’re right. WWII buildup of US military materiel was based on peacetime plants shifting from sewing machines to machine guns, from farm trucks and tractors to jeeps and tanks. Do we have that industrial base today? I doubt it. Plus the gear nowadays depends heavily on electronics and software systems which come from everywhere, much of it overseas. In a fight the shipments will cease. The blueprints will be an ocean away. The skill sets likewise.
Wal-mart nation has very little self-defense capability. Might take a generation to build it. But we’ll have only a few months or weeks.
And what of the endless permits/regulation required by various levels of governmental hucksters that forced these plants out of the US in the first place?
They demanded more and more of fewer and fewer until there were none. Then complained that they needed stimulus dollars because all of the buildings that stood empty.
Sorry, no such thing as international law, unless one considers the Law of the Jungle to be “Law”.
For there to be law, there has to be a legislative body accepted by a majority as having the authority to make law.
There must be enforcement against the minority that will not accept the authority of that law making body. There must be a judiciary that defines the limits of the legislature and enforcement.
Right now NONE of those things exist on this planet.
There isn’t even a common definition of what a nation is.
Western civilization uses the Treaty of Westphalia;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia
As the measuring stick for what is a nation/state and what isn’t. In other parts of the world, this definition isn’t valid. In the Muslim lands and Pakistan especially, the government makes claims it cannot enforce.
AS far as the Norks go, we either bomb them back to the stone age or get China to invade. There is no non-violent solution. Embargoes and sanctions don’t work against tyrants and despots. Saddam proved that. Soft power = no power. Kim Il, Saddam, the Mad Dog Mullahs, Baby Lion, none of the despots care what happens to their slaves. As long as they can feed the guys that keep the mob in line, they are happy. Note that the tyrants eat well.
The Norks ‘modern’ military equipment dates from the 70′s (Mig-29). One CVBG can take out North Korea. Send 3. Add in a few B-2′s and the Norks will not last 4 hours.
The Arty on Soul is a big bluff. I was stationed there. Koreans are smart. If the Norks actually got their guns out of the caves and had ammo to shoot, the ROK’s would jump in their Toyotas, Kia’s, Mercedes, etc. and go for a drive. In about 4 hours, the city would be mostly empty.
Then the battle would be over and the real problem of integrating the Norks would begin.
What is kool is that we are already at war with the Norks. Under UN authority on a chapter 7 resolution. It doesn’t matter that the resolution is 50+ years old. It stays in effect until another resolution cancels it.
All the USA needs to put an end to this nonsense once and for all, or at lest the next 50 years, is a POTUS with a pair. Haven’t had that since Ronnie and his were a little under spec. Should have turned Lebanon into a smoking crater after the Marine Barracks attack. The Missouri was setting off shore with 16″ guns. Empty the magazines.
If somebody wants a fight, give it to them. Running won’t stop the fight, it will just mean being tired at the start of the fight as well as the end of it.
@ Whiskey:
“After all, Obama has dreamed (and so have his female-oriented backers) of a Vichy America all their lives.”
Not a Vichy America, but a facsimile of the European Union, a sclerotic bureaucracy-driven entity that places far more emphasis on procedure than action and results. Politicians, bureaucrats and recipients of government welfare and other spoils will enjoy this system, as it nearly guarantees a never-ending buffet of money, power and self-importance.
These systems have a rather short shelf life, though. Bureaucracies tend to wither and die in the face of people who go their own way and not “follow the process”. Internal and external factors will cause individual EU members to not follow protocol, causing the entire organization to shudder to pieces if enough members go off-script for whatever reason. If Obama leads the geniuses in Congress to adopt the EU-esque bureaucracy, chances are it won’t last, as the more individualist states will break from protocol in order to resolve serious issues that can’t be resolved otherwise. Soon enough, no one follows protocol and the system crumbles.
And here is something that’s a bit OT to chew on. Given that his policies are driving the country to this cathartic climax, Obama may end up paying for all of this with his life. Which will then validate the Black community’s nihilistic view of the Black man “not being allowed to succeed”. Which will prompt rioting and violence on an unprecedented scale. How that’ll be handled will determine whether the mudball finds flat, level ground to run out of energy on, or whether that will allow that mudball to continue downhill, doing grave damage (i.e. a second Civil War).
@ elby:
I’m surprised no one simply got fed up with that creature and lured him into the woods for a private meeting with Mr. Smith and Wesson. And seeing how he’s bounced in and out of the system for so long, it’s a chance that he’s probably bounced himself into a prison for a spell no sooner he turned 18. And it’s sad that the adults behaved so uselessly while children had to solve a problem that should have been solved by adults. This could have cost a child his or her life, and a parent a lifetime of grief.
Kim Il Jong will die. The new regime will be a short, caretaker regime, then the state will fall apart. North and South Korea will fuse, as the halves of Germany fused. Thousands of communist criminals will not be prosecuted, instead left free to continue to ruin others’ lives (e.g. Putin). South Korea will borrow billions to repair North Korea. Minor discoveries from Kim’s nuclear arsenal will make the news, but the major weapons developments will be hidden for thirty years.
As to the manufacturing capacity touched on in #79,#80,#81 It occurs to me that we have a severe recession with inventorys low and unused manufacturing capacity. So if we had to go into a massive war footing we could convert many idle plants into producing war material. But we would need waivers of all the studies, EPA and other strangulating permits.
However with the current administration they will allow the the US to be bound in chains with self imposed regulations because they believe that we need to be punished and to lose since we are evil.
Blame America first is a reocurring theme amoung liberals and they may disguise it some but it appears in the diatribes and actions.
This idea that we are evil and need to die runs through many liberal policies. Abortion, gay sex, carbon caps, ROE on the batlefield, gun control so we can not defend ourselves. That was just to cite a few examples.
WE better win some elections soon and get conservatives that know they need to stay being a conservative. I don’t expect perfect to be at the expense of good. But we need good people to be candidates and win.
Obama and the left jumped the country to the left too fast and people are resisting. The Tea parties is a result of that anger. Tap that and we have a good chance of large number winning in the House and Governorships and even some Senate seats.
Like has been mention in the previous thread bullies can’ resist pushing too far and invoke the inevitable response.
Well Obama got in partly because the “swing” voter gets their news from the MSM which was really in the left’s pocket even more than usual. The good news is that the MSM is dying. The bad news is that it isn’t dying fast enough.
It has been about 60 years since major powers went to war with each other so things have gotten a bit soft. Now we have irrational third world powers going nuclear and the powers that be can’t wrap their heads around the irrational part.
Meanwhile I’m sponsoring a girl in an orphanage on the south side of Seoul. She graduates from high school next year. If anything happens to her……….
Wretchard, Kill this thread fast. Post #88 went over the line and that could be trouble. This thread is on the front page and any talk like in comment #88 is illegal. We are not leftist liberals that promote change of administration by extralegal means.
Re: RAH @ #90:
Agreed. Like it or not, President Obama and his administration are the American people’s choice as President, and Commander-in-Chief for a number of contributors, I’m sure. The Constitution, and the law, must be upheld not only in letter, but in spirit as well.
RAH: I have very much appreciated your comments and insight on this thread.
A little googling, and I find an equivalent scenario where TRU thinks Mossad will nuke NYC to trick US into war with Iran.
I’ll ask my wife if I borrow her DSM-IV when she gets home from work. For now, let’s go with ‘nutjob’.
RAH is right.
I’m no Obama fan but I struggle to see how the scenario has changed from Bush to Obama here. Hasn’t Bush set up this situation by his passivity and unwillingness to take any meaningful action. Isn’t this all just a continuation down the same path as before?
Harry @ 93:
The Bush you are looking at is behind us. I am afraid you are walking backwards, my friend. We will remain lost until we turn around and face the path ahead.
NK is surrounded by powerful countries, China & Japan being 2 of the 3 world’s largest & Russia & South Korea not far behind. I suspect the US should be trying to exercise a leadership role because it pisses off 2 of them. In particular China is never going to allow American forces on its border – they lost a few hundred thousnad proving that once before. Let these 4 discuss it between themselves & back the resulting decision through the UN.
Everbody is at least as worried about NK collapsing as it attacking anybody & yet such a collapse is clearly inevitable some time. I suspect the best option would be for China to offer political asylum to the guilty when it goes & SK to offer to keep paying the salaries of NK soldiers & bureaucrats as long as they want & as long as they obey orders (exactly the tactic not used in Iraq) while they allow SK’s free market to operate in the north. This would absolutely require western countries to say in advance that they will not subsequently criticise China for not bringing refugees to trial & SK for not immediately running the North like a western liberal democracy.
Thanks Highlander and markb. I try to reason situations out. NK is a problem but then it struck me it is not really our problem but SK’s problem. China, Japan and SK are all local neighbors and in Wretchard’s analogy the town is not the US. We are used to trying to solve the world’s problems. But like any parent we have to learn to let go and let the child standup on its own. SK is the child and it can stand up. Like most children they rebelled against the parent and under ROH they indulged in that rebellion.
Letting the child go on its own does not mean that we have refused all assistance just let the child try to live on its own.
Under Obama there really is not much choice. He will not fight for any reason. The only reason he is fighting in Afghanistan is because the liberal left did not want to be constantly barraged by the GOP saying that they would not fight. So in order to justify it childish ranting on Iraq war like “Bush Lied and People died” they said that Osama Bin Laden came from Afghanistan so we should focus the war there. They never would accept that the jihadists flooded into Iraq to fight us and that was a better battleground. Fighting in Afghanistan had a lot of logistical difficulties. Plus if we secured Iraq as a strong ally we had influence on a large country that sat strategically in the center of the Middle East.
Now Obama is stuck with the war in Afghanistan, which is harder to succeed due to the fact the Taliban can slip back over the border into Pakistan, which were their creators. Afghanistan is a more backward country and their culture is more in tune with Islamic fundamentalist ideology so it easy for them to slid back into that thinking. Beside Afghans were ruled for a while by Taliban and they had not resisted much.
Pakistan is becoming FUBAR and in a few years if he survives Baitullah Mehsud will be the ruler in Pakistan. He has been a spectacularly successful military leader and he orchestrated the assassination of Bhutto.
AQ Khan was released from house arrest and report of Pakistan increasing it reserves of fissile material is a concern. Obviously the NK, Iran and Pakistan will start up the network of selling nuke tech. Even Saudi Arabia is frightened of Iran and no longer will trust the US to safeguard the Saudi ruling family so the family wants to buy nukes.
This recent test and missile launch could be the seller ways of showing off his wares to the new market of nuke tech. This tech was held back for a long time, but the insistent weakness of Europe, UN and US has let it out. Bolton managed to shove it back un the bag but once the left managed to pull Bush’s fangs the world was no longer scared and started to think of how to improve their situation. Obama walked right into this mess with his arrogant assumption that he could solve everything. So he will use his vagueness and doubletalk and walk away.
Really what can he do? He cannot impose sanctions by the UN with Russia and China having veto rights. The only things he can do is quietly reduce forces in SK. Move Navy assets close and approve sales of Aegis missile cruisers to Japan. Quiet negotiations and assistant with Japan to set up better missile defense and nuclear missile capability will encourage China to keep the lid on NK
As to the proliferation we had dragooned the world navies, especially Greece in searching ships and that is how we caught the Libyans. But many nations will not be as cooperative since the lefties will be inclined to publicize cooperation since they hate covert work. But if Obama is convince to keep that up we may keep the lid a little down and the shipment of materials to other countries.
Will the war between Koreas get hot again? I do not think so. That is not to NK interest but NK wants a little freedom to make deals and get in food and goods. He will demand that the UN increase imports allowed in the country in order to stop their testing. Until they need another test of course?
North Korea is an isolated, bankrupt nation, run by a nut case. They chisled money out of Clinton with threats, they chisled money out of Bush with threats, and now they want some out of Obama. They also thrive on attention, like muslims. I would hope that the US would have the guts to just ignore the saps, and let them rot in silence.