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The Dambusters

July 31st, 2014 - 7:56 pm

The siege of Baghdad continues as ISIS gnaws at Baghdad’s links to its field armies. “Sunni radicals with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant destroyed a bridge north of Baghdad that Iraqi forces used as a key supply line.” A suicide truck bomb took out the bridge over the Tharthar canal.

The destruction of the bridge, just south of the city of Samarra, cuts a vital supply line for the Iraqi army and will further dampen its hopes of retaking the city of Tikrit, further north. …

The attack leaves the army and allied Shiite militias with only a secondary road that passes over Samarra dam bridge and is not suitable for the heaviest military vehicles.

Kurdish sources paint an unflattering picture of Maliki’s defenses. “Shafin Dizayee, a spokesman for autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in Irbil, told McClatchy news service that ‘the picture is no longer scary. It has become close to a nightmare scenario, where we see [ISIL] expanding and taking control of its borders.’”

Another Kurdish official, Jabbar Yawar of the Peshmerga militia, told the news service that the towns of Iskandariya and Mahmoudiyah, just 6 miles south of Baghdad, had fallen.

The city of Samarra, north of Baghdad, also not is faring well. An official who spoke only on the condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly, told McClatchy that Iraqi security forces were having a difficult time defending the city.

But the Kurds have a reason to be down on Maliki. They want to deal with Washington directly, claiming that without Obama’s help ISIS will overrun them too.  Maybe they will, unless they find a patron. But the most immediate threat is the struggle over the Iraq’s dams. “Islamist insurgents in the Islamic State … renewed their offensive … toward the key hydroelectric dam of Haditha. The … country’s second-biggest dam was a priority objective during the 2003 invasion.

Iraq’s biggest dam, the Mosul dam, is right next to a hotbed of Islamic State activity and poses catastrophic risk even if the terrorists don’t open the floodgates or blow it up. If the dam fails, scientists say Mosul could be completely flooded within hours and a 15-foot wall of water could crash into Baghdad.”


Lost in Translation

July 30th, 2014 - 3:59 pm

It may come as a shock to well-educated Westerners that Communists can be corrupt. Yet in 2013, “China was ranked 80th out of 178 countries in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, on par with Serbia and Trinidad and Tobago, ranking less corrupted with tied countries Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Jamaica, Panama, and Peru” — and worse than Sri Lanka.  Most corruption is concentrated in the Communist Party of China because the party hands out all the goodies.

It’s so bad that scholars think corruption is China’s major national security problem. “China specialist Minxin Pei argues that failure to contain widespread corruption is among the most serious threats to China’s future economic and political stability.” Despite the recent boom which produced goodies to go around, the competition between factions is so great that last week China was openly wracked by the biggest purge since the bad old days of Mao and the Gang of Four.

To appreciate the scale of the purge, imagine a man with the police power of Eric Holder, the wealth of Bill Gates and the prominence of Al Gore arrested — together with US senators, former cabinet secretaries and hundreds of merely famous people and herded into a kangaroo court  – prosecuted by the equivalent of president Obama, in consultation with presidents Clinton and Jimmy Carter. The Sydney Morning Herald says:

On Tuesday evening, China announced an investigation into the 72-year-old former domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang, one of the nation’s most feared political identities, and a man who once controlled the country’s police force, state security and lucrative state oil monopoly.

Mr Zhou, as a former member of the Politburo Standing Committee, is the most senior official ever to be investigated for corruption since the founding of the Communist Party – breaking an unwritten rule that standing committee members, past or present, should effectively be immune from investigation in the interests of party stability.

Purges are the elections of the left, but there’s nothing high minded about them. Although president Xi Jinping is portraying himself as Eliot Ness to Zhou Yongkang’s Al Capone, a long article by Reuters believes it’s just another power struggle. The fallen Zhou Yongkang used his position and the oil billions he controlled to create a network of patronage whose power became so vast it threatened to rival Xi and the CPC leadership itself.  Now president Xi Jinping is burning out the nest — and perhaps — redistributing the zillions to himself and his followers.


The Washington Post and the New York Times disagree on the who’s leading the charge in imposing new sanctions on Russia. The NYT says “Obama Joins Europe in Expanding Sanctions on Russia”, while the Washington Post writes “Obama announces expanded sanctions against Russia as E.U. aligns”.

The NYT’s version of events is:

President Obama announced expanded sanctions against Russia on Tuesday, just hours after the European Union imposed its most sweeping measures yet penalizing Moscow for its role in supporting separatists in neighboring Ukraine….

Until now, European leaders have resisted the broader sorts of actions they agreed to on Tuesday and their decision to do so reflected increasing alarm that Russia is not only helping separatists in Ukraine but directly involving itself in the fighting.

The Washington Post sees it as Merkel’s conversion to the Anglo-American point of view.

LONDON — The European Union on Tuesday overcame months of misgivings about forcefully confronting Russia and unleashed a wave of tough economic sanctions intended to push Moscow into backing down from its destabilizing role in eastern Ukraine….

Europe’s harder line has long been sought by Washington, but was for months resisted by European officials who have been anxious about the implications for their own economies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel led a faction of European leaders who sought to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine through dialogue with Moscow, rather than punitive measures.

But the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in eastern Ukraine this month galvanized politicians in capitals across Europe to move swiftly against Moscow in retaliation for an attack that the West has blamed on pro-Russian rebels….

“The plane changed everything,” said Sophia Pugsley, a specialist in E.U.-Russia relations at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “And it’s really the German attitude that has changed. They’re the ones that are going to feel the pain in the parts of the economy that rely on Russia.”



July 28th, 2014 - 3:36 pm

Napoleon once ascribed his success to being able to see things as they were, and not as reflected in a fun house mirror. “The first qualification of a general-in-chief is to possess a cool head, so that things may appear to him in their true proportions and as they really are.”

In Washington’s eyes Gaza may be the biggest conflict the Middle East; but objectively it is the littlest. The numbers tell the story. Syrian president Bashar Assad went down on his knees at a mosque following what some have called the worst week in the Syrian civil war ”amid reports of an unprecedented high death toll among his troops battling Islamic extremists.”

The military casualties came as fighting intensified in the past two weeks, with militants from the al-Qaida-breakaway Islamic State group seeking to eliminate opponents from all sides, dealing a series of setbacks for government forces and rival rebels alike … about 1,240 soldiers and other Assad loyalists have been killed in the past 10 days in northern Syria.

Other activists in Syria confirmed that past weeks have seen a record death toll. Syria’s three-year civil war has already killed more than 170,000 people, nearly a third of them civilians.

Nor should we forget Iraq was always a much bigger deal than Gaza and may be about to get worse. The Daily Beast’s Jamie Dettmer tells readers to get set for the coming Blitz of Baghdad. “Analysts at the U.S.-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War, who have been plotting the locations and types of attacks in the recent flurry of blasts buffeting the Iraqi capital, have noted a clear pattern developing. They say it suggests the Islamic State is building up to something big and is no longer just focused on consolidating its grip and developing governance in the lands it now controls.”

The institute’s analysts predict the caliphate may be readying for an onslaught, possibly timed for the end of the holy month of Ramadan on Monday or during the Eid holiday celebrations this week. The aim would not be to seize Iraq’s capital, which has a very large Shia population with every incentive to fight to the death against an organization that slaughters Shia prisoner en masse. The purpose of the Islamic State offensive would be to sow mayhem and to keep Iraq’s state apparatus from recovering from its stunning defeats in June, when it lost control of Mosul, the second-largest city in the country. …

There has been a burst of attacks by bombers wearing suicide vests and also car blasts “along avenues of approach to the capital and also within Baghdad proper,” the institute notes in an intelligence update.

Failed efforts to pull this off against US forces were discussed in an earlier post, the Siege of Baghdad.  But ISIS will probably have better luck against Maliki.


The World Gets Bigger

July 27th, 2014 - 5:44 pm

We are accustomed to thinking of progress as continuous. But there have been other periods of globalization before ours — and somehow the world broke apart again. During the Roman empire manufacturers traded throughout its length and breadth . For example, goods from Britain were sold in the Mediterranean. The empire’s merchants traded with China over the Silk Road and with the subcontinent via the Indian ocean.  It was a world without passports, a place in which St. Paul could say civis Romanus sum and claim protection.

When Roman order collapsed the world suddenly got bigger. Journeys of a week became detours of a month until they finally stopped altogether. “This breakdown was often fast and dramatic as it became unsafe to travel or carry goods over any distance; there was a consequent collapse in trade and manufacture for export. Major industries that depended on trade, such as large-scale pottery manufacture, vanished almost overnight in places like Britain. Tintagel in Cornwall, as well as several other centres, managed to obtain supplies of Mediterranean luxury goods well into the sixth century, but then lost their trading links. Administrative, educational and military infrastructure quickly vanished, and the loss of the established cursus honorum led to the collapse of the schools and to a rise of illiteracy even among the leadership.”

It could never happen again. Or could it? Although the world is far from the Dark Ages, to a modest degree, yet quite distinctly, the process of globalization has retreated for the first time perhaps since the Second World War. The New Republic looks at the places where the FAA NOTAMs place restrictions on commercial flights operated by U.S. carriers.

No Fly Zone

No Fly Zone

For a while that map even included Israel because Hamas threatened to bombard it. It may include Israel again, given the unfinished business with Hamas. But there’s also unfinished business with ISIS, ISIL, al-Shabab, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and what have you. And it’s starting to put a crimp on things. Indeed the Daily Mail says aviation experts believe that whole air corridors may soon be closed or significantly re-routed as the “tranquility” areas of the world are expanded, both geographically and in terms of the increasing capability of anti-air weapons available to ‘militants’.


Is Obama Aiding World Tranquility?

July 27th, 2014 - 5:47 am

Here is a selection of this morning’s news.

John Kerry brokers Afghan election deal but leaves behind confusion. Afghan elections: Audit of disputed run-off halted. U.S. Evacuates Embassy in Libya Amid Clashes. Only “temporary,” says State. Egyptians Search Kerry Before Allowing Him to Meet Sisi.

Kerry “completely capitulated“ to Hamas in ceasefire proposal, say Israeli sources. Hamas fires rockets toward Israel after terror group rejects truce proposal.

A bad deal with Iran. Missed deadline on Iran nuclear talks sparks a blame game. Jihadists in Iraq Erase Cultural Heritage. “Raw footage shows the Shrine of Yunus (Tomb of Jonah) mosque in Mosul being blown up by Islamic State militants.” ISIS warns women to wear full veil or face punishment. ISIS Kills 50 Syrian Soldiers, Beheads Many In Raqqa. Official: Iraqi request for U.S. airstrikes ”under active consideration.”

Donetsk residents flee fighting; Russians report spike in Ukrainian refugees. U.S.: Russia Massing Troops on Ukraine Border. If the West doesn’t do more for Ukraine now, it might soon be too late — Washington Post.

15,000 flee after Boko Haram overtakes Nigerian town. Nigerian Army Unable To Retake Damboa From Boko Haram.


Obamacare architect denies what he said — twice — on video about state choice in subsidies. “My subsequent statement was just a speak-o—you know, like a typo.” Harry Reid is happy he packed the federal court.

On Tuesday, a three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit ruled in the Halbig v. Burwell case that the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act are illegal in the 36 states that did not set up their own insurance exchanges. In other words, anyone who signed up through the federal exchange is ineligible for subsidies. As The New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn has written, this ruling, if upheld, could undermine the law. If millions of Americans cannot receive subsidies, then they will be unable to afford health insurance. The Affordable Care Act could collapse.

That won’t happen yet. The administration is likely to ask the entire D.C. Circuit to review the decision “en banc.” Here’s where the Democrats’ use of the nuclear option is important. The D.C. Circuit has 11 judges on it, seven Democratic appointees and four Republican ones. The only reason Democrats have a majority is due to the nuclear option. As University of Michigan law professor Nicholas Bagley explains at The Incidental Economist, the D.C. Circuit will likely review the decision and vacate Tuesday’s ruling—all because of those extra three judges.

Obama will take executive action on immigration after summer, adviser says. The “end of immigration enforcement“ is in sight. Obama’s promised executive actions to protect illegal immigrants constitute a kind of doomsday weapon directed at the Republican Party.

If Obama acts boldly to offer de facto legalization to, say, “up to half of the undocumented population” of 11 million illegals living here, it will cement an unshakeable bond between Latino voters and their political champion — or so the argument goes.

Barack Obama has already checked out of his job. “The degree to which Barack Obama is now phoning it in – sleepwalking perfunctorily through his second term, amid golf rounds and dinner parties – is astonishing.” White House: Obama Aiding World “Tranquility.” Congressman at border: “Obama begging to be impeached.”

Lights out for Christians in Mosul.  Simon and Garfunkel were a little too early with Xmas. But it all came true anyway, just not in the way they thought.

This is Obama Tranquility Base bidding you goodnight.

Addendum: I found the lost post and can recover the comments if anyone is interested.

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When God Goes Fishing

July 25th, 2014 - 5:36 pm

There are some subjects that are almost too large for literature, even for Tolstoy, who tried to answer the question “how should one live a moral life in an ethically imperfect world?” by following the fortunes of characters in his novel War and Peace.

Some characters seek fame, others sensual gratification, a few — like Napoleon — pursue an egotistical sense of power. But altogether too many of the rest are content to gnaw their way through the world like insects, not only incapable of answering Tolstoy’s question but unable to even ask it.

Some even want to meet God, a few glimpse the answer fleetingly and are content. One suspects the present time, like 1812, is a special era, one when more people than usual ask: “Where is God in this amoral world?” The answer may be that “God is away on one of His customary disappearances.” For one of the hallmarks of historical discontinuity is that God vanishes temporarily, during a time when old loyalties, ideologies and beliefs lose their power to bind.


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The Blindfolds of the West

July 24th, 2014 - 6:28 pm

Debate is raging in the expert community over what ISIS is: a state, transnational ideology, or just a way of life? The case for ‘state’ is made by in a Defense News article where a state department official testifies that ISIL (ISIS) is ‘no longer a terrorist group, it’s a full blown army’.

In a telling assessment that provides a glimpse into Obama administration officials’ thinking about the situation in Iraq, [US State Department’s Brett] McGurk told the panel ISIL is “no longer a terrorist group.”

Rather, he said the group has morphed into “a full-blown army.”

This is comforting to the State department.  If ISIS is a state, the same as Canada, then it can be contained in the same way any ordinary country is restrained; by alliances, diplomacy, sanctions.  The all purpose nostrum of diplomacy is to ‘statify’ an adversary. If Hamas, for example, can be turned into a state, then it becomes something familiar and safe, that in time might even have an embassy in Washington.

Others view ISIS as a transnational organization, with a broad global appeal, the heir to al-Qaeda. Briefly, the good news is that young militants are no longer joining al-Qaeda. The bad news is that they are joining ISIS instead.

Islamists now coming of age are more frequently dismissing al-Qaida as a worn down and ineffective organization, the wire service reported on Wednesday. Using social media services known for attracting candidate supporters, the young radicals have increasingly voiced admiration for the newer group that declared a new “Islamic State” last month in recently seized Middle Eastern territory.


Smoke Detector

July 23rd, 2014 - 3:30 pm

The New York Times notices the smoke collecting on the ceiling of the auditorium of the world and wonders whether there might be something to worry about. Peter Baker in an article titled “Crises Cascade and Converge, Testing Obama” notices that things are falling apart. “Not long after a passenger jet exploded in midair and plummeted to the ground in Ukraine last week, escalating a volatile crisis pitting the United States and Europe against Russia, President Obama’s thoughts turned to Syria.”

Baker has a thought. These problems may be linked.

Rarely has a president been confronted with so many seemingly disparate foreign policy crises all at once — in Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere — but making the current upheaval more complicated for Mr. Obama is the seemingly interlocking nature of them all. Developments in one area, like Ukraine, shape his views and choices in a crisis in another area, like the Middle East.

Like Sherlock on the trail, he suggests a common cause links them all. But we are advised not to worry, because the president is hot on the trail of the mystery; trying to identify the factor that connects all these catastrophes. Patience is advised, it is not elementary, my dear Watsons. The world is a complex place which only the the very smartest can understand.

Little wonder then that in recent days the president seems almost to be suffering geopolitical whiplash. “We live in a complex world and at a challenging time,” he said wearily last week after making a statement in which he addressed Ukraine, Gaza, Iran and Afghanistan, all in the space of seven minutes. “And none of these challenges lend themselves to quick or easy solutions.”

So he spends himself unstintingly trying to untie the Gordian Knot. But here’s a quick solution. Cut the Gordian Knot: resign.


Missing the Big Brass Ring

July 22nd, 2014 - 4:41 pm

The Birnbaum-Tibon megapiece in the New Republic on why the Palestinian peace process failed is as interesting for what it does not contain as much as what it does. Written in “fly in the wall” style it describes how negotiators from the Obama administration, Israel and the Palestinians tried — and failed — to start a peace process. The bricks of the edifice were  prisoner swaps and agreements, which when presumably constructed in some fashion would create a stable modus vivendi.

The drama as related by the New Republic could either have been tragedy or a comedy of errors; viewed with a suspension of disbelief it would appear that some actor somehow missed a brick, misconveyed an impression, reneged on a deal or simply flew off on a tangent so that ultimately the deal was missed for the nth time.  But the last source quoted by the New Republic piece was more cynical. The negotiations were merely a play-within-a-play. The tragedy was external to the negotiations. The hero would never get the girl onstage whatever he said because the roof of the theater was about to fall in.

“I see it from a mathematical point of view,” said Avi Dichter, the former chief of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency. “The American effort will always be multiplied by the amount of trust between the two leaders. So if Kerry’s pressure represents the number five, and then Obama’s help brings the American effort to ten, it really doesn’t matter. You’re still multiplying it by zero. The final result will always be zero.”

That’s mostly what the narrative misses, through no fault of its own. While protagonists in the Birnbaum and Tibon story lived in an world of diplomatic continuity, where formulas and proposals persisted on from one decade to the other, the world in which they lived was discontinuous and had changed out of all recognition.