Eric Trager, who has forgotten more about Egypt than I have yet learned, writes in The New Republic about the unhappy birthday of Egypt’s botched revolution.
Egypt is now headed for radical theocratic, rather than liberal democratic, rule…
It is tempting to believe that things might have turned out differently had Washington worked harder to bolster the young revolutionaries who seemingly exemplified America’s own liberal values when they took to the streets last January. These brave activists, after all, had won America’s hearts to the tune of an 82-percent approval rating at the height of the revolt, and their photogenic faces carried the promise of a more democratic, friendly Egypt.
But the activists were never who we hoped they were. Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths—an alliance of convenience for opposing Mubarak and, later, for denouncing the U.S.
Thus, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Egypt in March 2011, a group of leading activists refused to meet with her. They also turned out to be intolerant conspiracy theorists: When classically Cairoesque rumors that a “Jewish Masonic” ceremony was to be held at the pyramids on November 11, the April 6th Youth Movement’s Democratic Front declared that this non-existent event should be prohibited. “We are committed to the achievements of the revolution, which emphasized freedom,” they said in a statement. “But freedom is not absolute freedom, and … it is constrained by the regulations and beliefs of the Egyptian people, who do not accept that these celebrations be protected in the wake of the revolution.”
I know a few Egyptian intellectuals and activists who are authentic liberals, but they’re not remotely a majority. The percentage of Egyptians who genuinely support most or all the tenets of Western-style liberal democracy is in the high single digits at best.
Of all the Arab Spring countries so far, the odds of a successful outcome were always the bleakest in Egypt. The place is just so painfully backwards and dysfunctional. The Arab Spring began in Tunisia, remember, and one of the reasons I was initially optimistic about democracy’s prospects there is because Tunisia is the Arab world’s great anti-Egypt. It differs so radically from Egypt in so many ways that it’s sometimes hard to believe the two countries belong to the same civilization. They are both Arab countries, and they are both in North Africa, but they are nearly at opposite ends of the Arab cultural and political spectrums.
I’m far from certain that it’s springtime even in Tunis, but there should be no doubt at this point that it’s winter in Cairo.
I have feared this would happen from the start of the “Arab Spring” movement. Just yesterday, Gadaffi loyalists captured a city. All of these negative scenarios are playing out with our current administration standing with their arms folded. We have so many Assistant Secretaries of State, with all in a trance-like state, reacting to events, rather that supporting the right people. People and states are dying while Washington dithers.
I’m not convinced there’s a lot that can be done. Obama isn’t the president of the Arab world, after all. If large parts of the region want to go through an Islamist phase, there isn’t much that we can do to stop it. Egyptians liberals make up, what, eight percent of the population? How can we get them into power if the army has the guns and the Islamists have the votes?
You are right there is nothing any POTUSA can do except…stop sending them money and resources.
Didn’t I just read a report where the US government sent them millions to rebuild mosques? Or was that an erroneous report?
“Far from being liberal, their ranks were largely comprised of Nasserists, revolutionary socialists, and Muslim Brotherhood youths…They also turned out to be intolerant conspiracy theorists.”
You’ve just described almost everyone I’ve ever met from the Middle east, unfortunately. Rich or poor, muslim or christian, I’ve seen the same story. Why such a failure of common sense?
Albanian: Why such a failure of common sense?
It’s the anti-Westernism. If the West is bad, then Western ideas must be bad.
They’ll eventually get over it when all the non-democratic alternatives fail. At least the anti-Islamists will get over it, though they may tarry.
MJT: The percentage of Egyptians who genuinely support most or all the tenets of Western-style liberal democracy is in the high single digits at best.
I’m gonna go with 1 in 1000, at best. And even that is probably far too high. I suspect a clever person could bait most of those you’d consider “genuine” liberals into falling back on their cultural and traditional norms fairly easily. There’s just no basis for liberalism in Egypt or anywhere else in the Arab world except what has been imported from other cultures, and imported ideas just don’t stick very well.
MJT: If large parts of the region want to go through an Islamist phase, there isn’t much that we can do to stop it.
Nor should we be hoping to stop it. People who are all twisted up with serious dysfunction have to hit absolute rock-bottom before they decide it’s time to try to do something about it. Staging a political “intervention” (even if we could) would just be putting a bandaid on a gaping wound. All that I’m hoping for when it comes to Egypt is that they don’t take anyone else down with them. Therefore, I’d like to see the US State Department come up with a serious containment policy for Egypt.
MJT: It’s the anti-Westernism.
That’s part of the dysfunction I was talking about. It can’t possibly be THEIR fault they are so fucked up, so somebody else must be to blame for all their problems. And who would you pick to point the finger at? It’s not “anti-Westernism”. It’s the same kind of mentality that causes the poor to blame the rich for their own lack of success. And etc.
Since they are not westerners the best thing the west can do is cut them loose and let them fend for themselves. They are not our problem to solve.
If the West is bad, then Western ideas must be bad.
Why should they be looking at western ideas? Let them come up with their own ideas. They aren’t children, and when they claim to want what westerners have and then make a mockery of our highest ideals it doesn’t do anyone any good, does it? Arabs are going to end up with the governments they want, and that they deserve. Same as everyone else.
7. Craig
“MJT: It’s the anti-Westernism.
That’s part of the dysfunction I was talking about. It can’t possibly be THEIR fault they are so fucked up, so somebody else must be to blame for all their problems. And who would you pick to point the finger at? It’s not “anti-Westernism”. It’s the same kind of mentality that causes the poor to blame the rich for their own lack of success. And etc.”
Craig, you even witnessed this on the comments section of Michael’s blog when Ahmed came here. Even Sammy signifies some of this.
From a different point of view, however, one can say the west enables the self pity of Arabs and Muslims. A lot of useful idiots in the west look at Arabs and Muslims as a victim class that should be coddled and rather than call Arabs to account for their own failures, there are always people in the west who justify deplorable behaviour of Arabs and Muslims and attribute that behaviour to US imperialism, Israel, etc.
—Is “liberalism” defined by one’s fealty and devotion to the spirit of that beautiful, transcendent, essence of Western humanism, that is the Carter Doctrine?
Apparently “liberalism” has been thusly “re-defined” as such for Arabs by the neocon right.
Sammy, political liberalism encompasses a wide variety of viewpoints, but it does not include Islamism, revolutionary socialism, or Nasserism.
Excerpt from a recently declassified Eisenhower Administration Memo, where Arab “anti-Westernism” was explained to President Eisenhower:
“ President Eisenhower, in an internal discussion, observed to his staff, and I’m quoting now, “There’s a campaign of hatred against us in the Middle East, not by governments, but by the people.” The National Security Council discussed that question and said, “Yes, and the reason is, there’s a perception in that region that the United States supports status quo governments, which prevent democracy and development and that we do it because of our interests in Middle East oil. FURTHERMORE, IT’S DIFFICULT TO COUNTER THAT PERCEPTION BECAUSE IT IS CORRECT.” (emphasis mine, sammyman)
The ugly truth.
IT IS ANTI-US/BRITISH POLICYISM, NOT ANTI-WESTERNISM.
How often does one hear, from Arabs, complaints about Germans, Swedes, or Argentines? I would like to hear *one* such story from anybody….
I think that we all may be OVER-thinking this. Personally, I thing that the idea of “Western Liberal Democracy” is as alien to them as Sharia Law is to us. They do not have the capacity for self-rule in the sense that we in the west do. Look at Egypt and Egyptians; they overthrow an oppressive dictator and vote in an oppressive theocracy. Either way they seem to need a very strong hand over them telling them what to do, how to think, when to fart, ect.
I’ve now worked with a largly Egyptian workforce for over a year. Every day, 13 to 14 hours a day, side by side, breakfast, lunch and dinner. What I see in an industrial environment is: total lack of self-motivation, complete dishonesty, blame-shifting about everything, strict religious adherence when convenient to get out of work, and several other things that I can’t seem to think of right now. Even the guys who I THOUGHT were fairly moderate voted for Nour or MB. They to a man say they WANT Sharia in Egypt.
I’ve just turned down a fairly good contract in Egypt for next year because I’m just not that into going there anymore. If the thoughts of the average Egyptian are anything like the guys I am working with in Kuwait, Egypt is a gonner!
How often does one hear, from Arabs, complaints about Germans, Swedes, or Argentines? I would like to hear *one* such story from anybody….
http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2009/04/malmo-protest-in-arabic.html
The above is in response to Sammyman 11.
Sammy: IT IS ANTI-US/BRITISH POLICYISM, NOT ANTI-WESTERNISM.
It’s both.
The reason you don’t hear Arabs complain about Sweden is because Sweden isn’t a superpower. If Sweden was a superpower, people all over the world would bitch about Sweden no matter what it did.
We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. If we support Arab dictators, we’re accused of oppressing Arabs by proxy. If we oppose Arab dictators, we’re accused of imperialism.
I’ve been called an “Orientalist” a thousand times for criticizing Bashar al-Assad. That finally stopped in 2011, but I won’t soon forget it.
I also remember the Danish embassy in Beirut, which was within walking distance of my apartment, being firebombed for cartoons that appeared in a newspaper.
Imagine, Sammy, if Americans firebombed Arab embassies whenever MEMRI translated something offensive.
5. Michael J. Totten
“Albanian: Why such a failure of common sense?
It’s the anti-Westernism. If the West is bad, then Western ideas must be bad.
They’ll eventually get over it when all the non-democratic alternatives fail. ”
7. Craig
“Since they are not westerners the best thing the west can do is cut them loose and let them fend for themselves. They are not our problem to solve.”
Ultimately, strongly agree with both of you, though I come to my conclusion from a different perspective, of course.
I am going to try to get an Egyptian graduate student, who taught one of my classes a couple quarters ago, to make an appearance on this blog. He is a graduate of Cairo University, one of Egypt’s alleged public diploma mills producing supposedly unemployable graduates; yet despite this, he was one of the better teachers I’ve had at my university, most of whose engineering departments are ranked in the top 10-20 in the US.
As he explained it to me, the primary bases for the MB’s (especially) success, along with the fact that Egypt is by far the most genuinely religious society(unfortunately medeivalistically so in the case of too much of the peasantry and much of the urban poor) in the greater ME region, was their professed commitment to cleanse Egypt of the corruption and rampant cronyism, and the rot these things both promoted and fed off of, which were fairly definitive of the Mubarak era.
The MB, in the course of its campaigning, referred to very specific programs to achieve such results as rapidly bringing literacy to close to 100%, making Egypt self-sufficient in food production, and fostering Egypt’s industrial base—which has considerable near-term potential in many areas of medium tech manufacturing. These things are infinitely more important to Egypt’s future than the question of how many Egyptians will be able to take Brits on felucca rides on the nile or serve martinis to scantily-clad Scandinavian tourists in Sharm, etc. For most Egyptians it was a very inspiring platform. Most of Egypts contending political parties espoused similar goals, but the MB had the most credibility due to its decades of genuniely first-rate social work, in lieu of a seemingly absentee state.
Sammy: the primary bases for the MB’s (especially) success, along with the fact that Egypt is by far the most genuinely religious society(unfortunately medeivalistically so in the case of too much of the peasantry and much of the urban poor) in the greater ME region, was their professed commitment to cleanse Egypt of the corruption and rampant cronyism, and the rot these things both promoted and fed off of, which were fairly definitive of the Mubarak era.
I’m sure that’s true, but so what? I wouldn’t vote for medieval theocrats in America just because they promised to fix the economy even if our economy was ten times worse than it is.
If radical Islamist parties run for office on an anti-corruption platform in, say, Albania, they’ll lose even though corruption is also terrible there. The reason they’d lose is because Albanians are as stridently opposed to medieval theocracy as Americans are. We have anti-bodies in our political cultures against that sort of thing. Egypt doesn’t.
Egypt will, however, develop those anti-bodies much as Iran has.
18. Michael J. Totten
“… is because Albanians are as stridently opposed to medieval theocracy as Americans are. We have anti-bodies in our political cultures against that sort of thing. Egypt doesn’t.
Egypt will, however, develop those anti-bodies much as Iran has.”
Excellent point…. And I agree.
I also think this is the most powerful argument for a general policy on our part of leaving Egyptians alone to let them find their own way.
Personally, I hope they develop these antibodies rapidly. Alcohol and swimsuit bans are a red line for me….
Though Egypt will be a socially conservative society for the forseeable future, I prefer to be optimistic they will realize, in their majority, that coersion is the wrong approach.
Sammy: I also think this is the most powerful argument for a general policy on our part of leaving Egyptians alone to let them find their own way.
If Egypt leaves others alone, everyone will most likely leave Egypt alone.
But if a radical Islamist Egypt acts like radical Islamist Iran, it will mean trouble. There is no getting around this.
Michael, there are some genuine liberals involved in the struggles in Egypt, take a look and the Blog in the Jpost by Ahmed Meligy. http://blogs.jpost.com/content/reasons-why
This young man seems to truly have his heart in the right place. I worry about him and what “they” might do to him. The more people know about him the better and safer he’ll be. Maybe he’s the beginning of a trend in the right direction (!?)
17. sammyman
“The MB, in the course of its campaigning, referred to very specific programs to achieve such results as rapidly bringing literacy to close to 100%, making Egypt self-sufficient in food production, and fostering Egypt’s industrial base—which has considerable near-term potential in many areas of medium tech manufacturing. These things are infinitely more important to Egypt’s future than the question of how many Egyptians will be able to take Brits on felucca rides on the nile or serve martinis to scantily-clad Scandinavian tourists in Sharm, etc. For most Egyptians it was a very inspiring platform. Most of Egypts contending political parties espoused similar goals, but the MB had the most credibility due to its decades of genuniely first-rate social work, in lieu of a seemingly absentee state.”
Well they had better think of the tourists as important! Egyptians are some of the laziest people I’ve ever encountered. They need those tourist dollars to support their economy.
And as to your “Cairo University, one of Egypt’s alleged public diploma mills producing supposedly unemployable graduates”, it is absolutely a diploma mill. I’ve yet to encounter an Egyptian “engineer” that could figure his way out of a paper sack!! They don’t know the most basic theory but you can’t seem to tell them they are wrong about anything. In this plant that I am currently commissioning, there are about 10 times more operations personnel than what would be working in any other plant I’ve ever been in. That is because they don’t want to do any work whatsoever!! “No sir can’t do that now because its time for tea”. “No sir its time to prepare food”. “No sir I must talk with my friend now”. “No sir I must….”.
” I wouldn’t vote for medieval theocrats in America just because they promised to fix the economy even if our economy was ten times worse than it is.”
But a great many Americans do vote for medieval theocrats. The influence of religion on American politics is enormous.
Don Cox: But a great many Americans do vote for medieval theocrats.
No, they don’t.
I would never vote for the likes of Rick Santorum, but I wouldn’t describe him that way, either. If you think religious conservatives in America are medieval, it has been too long since you’ve studied medieval history.
I say this as an atheist, by the way, with a great-great-etc-grandmother who was executed as a “witch” in Salem, Massachusetts.
If 13th century reactionaries were like 21st century Republicans, the 13th century would have been one hell of a lot more enlightened than it was. Even the likes of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are libertarian-anarchists compared with just about single person who breathed in the medieval period.
Egypt’s Salafists, though, are actually more extreme in most ways that medieval Europeans.
Once again, I take no pleasure in being able to say, “I told you so”.
There is much blood yet to be spilled.
MUCH,
R
Re 16. Michael J. Totten :: “Imagine, Sammy, if Americans firebombed Arab embassies whenever MEMRI translated something offensive.”
Americans, most especially the Left, are seemingly unable to undertake _precisely_ this imaginative exercise.
“At least the Egyptians didn’t make Zawahiri their new speaker, that’s good, isn’t it? See, the Ikhwan are really a mostly secular party. This is all about economics or class or injustice. All this shouting and killing isn’t really about that .”
The Arab pathologies are unique and virulent.
I’m more worried, though, by this new way of thinking about Arabs. It, too, is a pathology.
For some few, it may be that expectation as now so low that they consider it a victory for reform if an Arab tantrum does _not_ result in an embassy being taken hostage.
For others, it’s just run-of-the-mill leftist self-hatred, or stupidity and too much time watching Russia TV: It’s right that our embassies be taken hostage, as America is the fount of all that is evil, and Paradise is to be found wherever we are not.
For some others, it’s something far more sinister: They identify viscerally with the rage of the Arab street, a rage they see as directed not against America per se, certainly not them, but against their enemies in America, and all that haunts the Middle America they detest.
They smile at the thought that Evangelicals suffer when they hear of chattel slavery in Sudan. They enjoy watching American Jews feel pain when Hamas kills another few dozen of their co-religionists. They quietly rejoice at the death of each and every service member and the pain their families feel. All that matters is that their domestic enemies suffer.
But a great many Americans do vote for medieval theocrats. The influence of religion on American politics is enormous.
I suspect if we used your definitions, the United States was founded by medieval theocrats Don
And thank God that’s true. Imagine what America would be like if it’d been founded by atheists like you? Or do atheists have some history of doing good deeds for the benefit of their fellow man that I’m not aware of? Every atheist i can think of who has climbed to a position of power has been a homicidal maniac and a sociopath.
MJT: Egypt’s Salafists, though, are actually more extreme in most ways that medieval Europeans.
They are. And that’s the real red flag for me. Europeans have never been ruled by people as illiberal as the folks that seem so popular in Egypt today. Not even during the Dark Ages, and not even when they were pagan nomadic tribesmen. If it was just a case of Egyptians having to make up a few hundred years we could hope they’d do that in a hurry with a little help and a lot of education, but they’ve got to reset their minds and then catch up with thousands of years worth of cultural evolution. Not gonna happen. Not in the lifetime of anyone here, and probably not in the lifetime of Egypt as a country or Islam as a religion. However, if they can just find the wisdom (somewhere) to know that it’s ridiculously stupid behavior to be violently aggressive towards other people when they’re the ones holding the winning hand, that would be enough for peaceful coexistence.
I decided to help Don out with his research, since I’m a nice guy that way. Don, you can start here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_Reformation
Then proceed logically to the next item of note, here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Westphalia
I’m at my link limit but from there go to “Age of Enlightenment” and then just kinda click on those little blue links you see on the page. You’ll get the hang of it in no time. And then rub your two braincells together as hard as you can and see if you can figure out whether or not you really think religious Americans are “medieval”.
Here is what will revive the Egyptian economy-war with Israel. The US under Obama would not cut off funds so as not to alienate the “moderate” MB and “moderate” salafists. Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia would pour in funds to assist Egypt. The UN and EU would denounce Israel for being intransigent for not giving up Eilat, Beersheva, Ashkelon (all pre 1967 Israel). Egyptian young men would be killed in the Sinai instead of demanding reforms at home
Craig: Every atheist i can think of who has climbed to a position of power has been a homicidal maniac and a sociopath.
You’re thinking of ideological communist atheists.
Most European leaders today are atheists/agnostics. None are homocidal maniacs.
I guarantee you plenty of American presidents were atheists/agnostics who only pretended to be religious. Thomas Jefferson, my favorite president of all, could hardly be described as pious.
LebaneseForcesGuy @8, I totally agree with you. The patronizing and condescending attitude of many Westerners – particularly those who are academics or consider themselves to be intellectuals – is a major part of the problem. They act as enablers for the dysfunction in other parts of the world, even as they talk like they’re part of the solution.
Herb: Here is what will revive the Egyptian economy-war with Israel. The US under Obama would not cut off funds so as not to alienate the “moderate” MB and “moderate” salafists. Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia would pour in funds to assist Egypt. The UN and EU would denounce Israel for being intransigent for not giving up Eilat, Beersheva, Ashkelon (all pre 1967 Israel). Egyptian young men would be killed in the Sinai instead of demanding reforms at home
I don’t agree. War will turn Egypt into a failed state. Egyptians are not self-sufficient when it comes to waging war. They cannot replace their own losses using their own resources, they have to buy replacements from other countries instead. There will be no military-industrial complex boom in Egypt due to war. Same for Egypt’s infrastructure. It’s going to take money to rebuild that, and the money will be leaving the country not staying in it. Also, Egyptians are already on the verge of widespread starvation and I suspect having Egypt becoming a war zone would push the country right over the edge. As far as young Egyptian men being killed in a war with Israel in large numbers and thereby relieving economic stress that’s not going to happen either. They will surrender soon as they run out of gas, ammo and food.
However, this seems to be what many Egyptians want so that’s what they should have. On the bright side, it will give them one more thing to complain about.
Maxtrue, to get back to one of those old closed threads for a second:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16738209
The FBI is seeking to develop an early-warning system based on material “scraped” from social networks.
It says the application should provide information about possible domestic and global threats superimposed onto maps “using mash-up technology”.
Oh, sure. That’s what they SAY they will do with it. Because that’s arguably legal. Of course, there’s nothing stopping them from using the same software to track specific people or specific groups of people, is there? And there’s nothing preventing them from expanding the scope of what kind of “crimes” they are trying to “alert” on, either.
It says the application should collect “open source” information and have the ability to:
Open Source, eh? In other words, everything Facebook and Google has on people. Which is kind of pretty much everything. But we can trust Google and Facebook not to release any information on their users that their users have not specifically consented to have made public. Can’t we?
When I see people voting for religious types who deny evolution, or believe in Hell-fire, and think you should do good out of fear of an after-life – I see a Medieval attitude.
Likewise when I see Bishops sitting by right in the British Upper House.
Religion is a menace in the Middle East, but we in the “West” are by no means free from its insidious influence.
Sorry for all the comment spam today. I’ll try and tone it down.
You’re thinking of ideological communist atheists.
Well, they seem to be the only ones who have risen to power in a powerful country. However, although I don’t know what Hitler believed in considering how much he invoked German pagan beliefs from antiquity along with a mash-up of other belief systems that suited his ideology I’d guess he was also an atheist.
Most European leaders today are atheists/agnostics.
being an agnostic is not at all the same as being an atheist.
None are homocidal maniacs.
What about Slobodan Milošević? Whether you want to admit it or not, the fuckers keep popping up and somebody (usually us medieval theocrats in the United States) has to keep putting them down again.
I guarantee you plenty of American presidents were atheists/agnostics who only pretended to be religious.
Maybe so, but last I checked it’s up to people to identify their own religious beliefs not for others to do it for them. Accusing people of misrepresenting their beliefs without any evidence is not exactly religious tolerance, Micheal, and I suspect you know that as well as I do
Thomas Jefferson, my favorite president of all, could hardly be described as pious.
He had some odd beliefs about Christianity. Some of which I actually agree with, believe it or not. However, he was not an atheist. Nor was he an agnostic. Nobody put a gun to his head and forced him to talk so much about the “Creator” and and about the divine origin of human rights. The man was a believer.
Don, something else for you to think about in between your wikipedia research is the fact your entire contribution to this thread has been nothing but condemnation of the United States and of Americans. Aren’t there some blogs in the UK where such would be better received? I imagine there are even some people in Britain who might agree with you.
Don Cox: When I see people voting for religious types who deny evolution, or believe in Hell-fire, and think you should do good out of fear of an after-life – I see a Medieval attitude.
The medieval era had much more serious problems.
Google “Tomas de Torquemada” for starters. Then read Carl Sagan’s chapter on the European witch trials in his book The Demon Haunted World.
Craig: being an agnostic is not at all the same as being an atheist.
I know the differences, but they’re similiar enough that I describe myself as both.
Atheists tend to be more ideological about it. I used to be that way myself, sort of like Don Cox is now, but I mellowed out.
What about Slobodan Milošević?
He’s dead.
Accusing people of misrepresenting their beliefs without any evidence is not exactly religious tolerance, Micheal, and I suspect you know that as well as I do
I’m not accusing anyone in particular of faking it. I’m just aware that no self-described atheist or agnostic can get elected in this country, so any president who isn’t religious will have to lie. We’ve had lots of presidents and politicians lie every day, so you do the math.
Michael;
Representative Pete Stark is an admitted atheist and is currently sitting in Congress. He’s been there for some time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Stark
Statistics of atheists in the US are in single digit percentages (agnostics are a bit higher, but still a small minority). It would follow that atheist politicians are as uncommon in the government as they are in the general population. Personally I know only one atheist.
Don Cox;
Theists think the idea of unconscious matter self-assembling into people over millions of years to be just as ridiculous as atheists find the idea of Adam and Eve. We’s all gots religion
Sammy, I don’t think I follow. I understand why some Arabs may be against the US or ‘western powers” because of their real or imagined “meddling” in their internal affairs. But if that’s all there is to it, where is the Arab opposition to Soviet and Russian meddling in their internal affairs? Where is the anti-Turkish sentiment? Why apply this dynamic only to the ‘west”, and only to the “west”? When the Egyptian people rose against Mubarak, the US dropped its support for Mubarak. When the Libyan people rose up against Qadaffi, Russia started sending weapons shipment to him. Russia started sending weapons to Assad. Russia send weapons and money to every single Arab dictatorship, including Egypt (while the Egyptians may blame the US for Mubarak, who do they blame for Nasser and Saddat?).
I don’t think that’s the reason. I’ve heard all the conspiracy theories and all the complaints from Arabs about how its always America and Israel that impose dictatorships on them. But that has no relation whatsoever to reality. All one has to do is look at who is fighting dictatorships there, and who is supplying weapons to them.
Michael is right in that he says the “failure of common sense” is related to anti-westernism. But why is there so much anti-westernism? The “west” isn’t imposing any cultural traits on anyone. They are adopted freely. Sure some may say that poverty, illiteracy, lack of experience with democracy etc may be factors. But most of the world is that way, and many other cultures have overcome these problems within a couple of generations. So how is it possible that in the 21st century, in a nation with a very young population, people can have a “revolution” that has as its objective…cultural and political repression?
Don Cox,
Up until the 1980s, the people making the most trouble in the middle east were secular Arab Nationalists like nasser, baathists, and the PLO. The founder of the PFLP George Habash was a Marxist and he caused a lot of trouble. Blaming religion is simplistic.
“Religion is a menace in the Middle East, but we in the “West” are by no means free from its insidious influence.”
The difference of course being that the Bishops of the Church of England aren’t issuing death sentences to heretics, and if they did, no politician in England would care. Also, most of the Bishops of the Church of England don’t even believe in a God.
“Religion”, isn’t a term that applies equally to all religions, despite what some people (Hitchens) would like to pretend.
Albanian,
That is absolutely correct. Saddam’s military was built with Soviet and Chinese weapons, yet people are always cursing the US saying the US created Saddam. In terms of his chemcial program the bulk of that came from the Bonn government in Germany. So when Sammy says people curse the US and not Germany because Germany has never “meddled” or supplied despots, he is full of shit.
Craig,
I tend to agree with you about the Egyptian army. I think their capabilities have gotten worse, not better and are probably at a status below that of 1967 despite their more modern US weaponry. Those weapons need to be maintained in the field. In a war, they would likely be stolen en masse.
I think such stupidity on the part of the Egyptians would hasten their inevitable collapse.
Egypt is doomed and will be abandoned by the wealthy and smart and become another Sudan or Ethiopia.
To Don Cox,
You have a profound ignorance of the Middle Ages that is really shocking!
Wikipedia is not a learned history text.
Take a hint from Michael and educate yourself before you bury yourself in ridiculous simplicities.
Why is the Egyptian government doing this:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/egypt-bars-son-us-transportation-secretary-ray-lahood-155413441.html
?
LFG,
Of course Sammi is full of camel dung!
The Arabs combine the West and Israel because of their westernized liberal ideology and resent them because of their achievements. Its an unassailable mantra for them. They allied with the nazis because the Nazis promised that they would get rid of the English and kill all the Jews. They don’t complain about Germany because their is still a great fondness in Egypt and among the Palestinians for the Nazi regime.
Their are groups of people who rise from poverty when given the chance and others who prefer to wallow in their own shit and blame others for it.
The Left in the West hate the former because it exemplifies what can be done in a free enterprise system despite all its warts. And they love the latter because it fits in with their own anti-western animus that the west is the root of all evil.
And they can do it from the comfort of a Starbucks while they sip their lattes.
Toady: Personally I know only one atheist.
Most of my close friends and family are atheists or agnostics, but then again I live in the least religious state in the entire country. I have no idea why Oregon is less religious than anywhere else. It’s not because it’s a left-leaning “blue” state. Oregon is a bit more conservative than the other states on the West Coast.
45. yesjb
“And they can do it from the comfort of a Starbucks while they sip their lattes.”
And from microbreweries with vastly overrated beer. Miller High Life > some beer only 3 people know about.
You call that stuff in the US “beer”??
Here we go again with the beer.
Still the best comments section on the web.
The worst that Egypt can do to the US and western Europe is to close the Suez Canal and the Straights of Tiran; and allow their territory to be used by Hamas and/or Iran, against Israel and the west in general. Iranian missiles based in Egypt could be used against Israel, Europe, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, and South Sudan.
This is actually quite a lot. So I don’t think the US can really just abandon Egypt to its fate.
Maybe if Egypt doesn’t cozy up this close to Iran, they’ll say the Muslim Brotherhood is “Moderate”.
My Roman Catholic parents, Notre Dame nuns and French Christian Brothers did their best to get my light of faith lit. But I concluded early on that, in the absence of irrefutable evidence, I’d trust my senses and history here in my tiny spot on the pale blue dot and let Out There stay unknowable beyond science’s limitations.
I vote for conservatives, when I find them, regardless of their views about the beyond and hereafter; no celestial congress passes legislation affecting me here and now.
Yes Del, what exactly is going on? Will this be as I expected from the start? I mean Render chimed in above, but there was absolutely no expectation of Liberal Success that I saw from putting Mubarak in a cage. The way he was removed indicated much. Please tell me that my original skepticism of events in Tahrir Square were wrong. I did not trust Jalil or many of the rebels. I didn’t trust a chaotic transfer of power in Egypt. I don’t even think many in the Syrian opposition are friends of the West.
Sammyman, you are confused. You don’t realize that following WW2 as the Grand Mufti fled a French jail and returned to Egypt to start the Muslim Brotherhood, a huge struggle was being waged between the Soviets and the West. How could anyone fail to understand why the Mullahs backed the Shah’s coup without understanding this dynamic? Yet Eisenhower and the US is blamed for screwing with Iranians. How could anyone understand Eisenhower’s remarks you mentioned without understanding what kind of mentality had already divided the Middle East and the importance of ME oil relative the Marshal Plan. Eisenhower opposed the action against the Suez while placing the Jupiter-c nuclear missile in Turkey. His ambivalence towards Status Quo was relative the more serious struggle between Communism and Liberal Democracy and not any judgement of Islam.
I would say plan to do this: http://www.lionops.com/ Sammyman.
Craig, I’ve kinda come to the conclusion that with ubiquitous two way visual communication devices all Americans will come under the scrutiny of autonomous cyberagents. Look at it this way, how powerful can you make RAM with a bit being twelve atoms? So hello some major size and power reductions a la nano. This artificial halo of sensors will provide massive information to programs designed to search and extract. I do not see how any ordinary citizen could prevent a directed effort to hack their computer, summarize all their data, access their files and accounts. This whole internet highway is on one level cattle to the slaughter. There’s a back door to almost everything and digital data can even travel through your electrical lines.
Michael, I left my comments brief when Tahrir first Squared up. I didn’t think Liberality had much chance in Egypt unless we played the military better rather demanding their General his son and his Suleiman were all to be hung out to dry. As for the MB, they pray that our stupidity and our economic stumbling converge into their opportunity.
So does Iran.
So does China.
This “America’s not back” attitude by the administration does not bode well for the region no matter how long long network TV cameras hang on Schumer listening to Obama’s redeclaration of US-Israeli bonds at the end of the State of the Union. The most disturbing parts of Obama’s speech were at the start. He led off by taking credit for killing OBL who means less these days to AQ in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Somalia, Libya, and elsewhere where they operate today and made it sound like the radicalism that brought us 9/11 is somehow less dangerous today. Pakistan and Afghanistan is crumbling in his hands. Yet he touted bringing our soldiers home from Iraq with almost no mention of the situation unfolding there. He praised the military’s efforts and summoing the expected applause but really, his failed economic efforts are unraveling their budget and the administration’s lack of foresight threaten the bloody gains they’ve made in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yon notwithstanding.
I guess the question voters should ask is whether they think the worst is behind us. Obama’s going to run on the worst is behind us and cast Republican’s warnings and data as defeatism.
Be wary of those just repeating that our best days are yet to come. That’s not the answer to the question, is it? And “America’s Back” is not campaign worthy, unless the message is that Obama is bringing American troops back home.
Panetta’s betting we just need 182,000 Marines and that all they need are bombers, tankers, some boats and subs along with more drones and cyberwarfare tools.
LaHood’s son still stuck in Egypt.
M
http://defensetech.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/X-47Babove2.jpg
Now if they’re revealing this, you can bet there are others.
So… eh… anyway… I hear our latest big idea for the military is to build a giant… barge? … to transport our troops on? Didn’t Cleopatra have one of those? Hopefully things will work out better for us than they did for her. But seriously… a barge!? Modern aircraft carriers have already been described as floating cities. Those weren’t big enough?
Freddy T: The worst that Egypt can do to the US and western Europe is to close the Suez Canal and the Straights of Tiran; and allow their territory to be used by Hamas and/or Iran, against Israel and the west in general. Iranian missiles based in Egypt could be used against Israel, Europe, North Africa, Saudi Arabia, and South Sudan.
No worries. We got barges to take care of that.
http://usmilitary.about.com/od/jointservices/g/barg.htm
We just park one of those puppies smack dab in the middle of the Suez Canal and nobody will dare mess with us.
I guess this is the solution to fighting a low tech enemy. Why risk a 15 billion dollar super carrier or a 2 billion dollar amphibious assault ship against a bunch of assclowns cheap-shit Chinese missiles when you a garbage scow that wouldn’t be worth $1000 on E-Bay will work just as well? Lets just hope we aren’t going up against anyone besides assclowns with cheap-shit Chinese missiles anytime soon.
Egypt’s new rulers will–by their policy of hostage-taking–kill what’s left of the tourist industry. But they don’t care about that. They intend to stay on top by giving the Egyptians, not bread, but ‘dignity.’ This latter term is a code word for hatred, bigotry, hysteria, and war.
@53 Max,
My guess is that the Egyptian government (i.e. the kleptocratic military clique which was NOT overthrown by the “Revolution”), by holding a son of one of Obama’s cabinet members, is aiming to demonstrate their disrespect of Obama and the US in order to curry favor with many Egyptians. Also, they probably aim to see what Obama’s response is, as a way of measuring him and confirming their perception of him. As a weenie.
But I was wondering what other people think…
Nate @50 wrote: “Still the best comments section on the web.”
I think that is mainly because the commenters here at Michael’s site are much better informed than commenters at most other sites. I recognized that long ago.
No matter what your political or ideological orientation, if you make a factually incorrect (or blatantly stupid) statement here, someone else will usually knock it down. (And sometimes Michael himself knocks it down.) So new commenters here learn real fast to be accurate with what they say.
For that and some other reasons, yes, the discussions and debates here tend to be far better than those at the vast majority of other sites.
Del, what I think is that Obama should have evacuated non-essential personnel and private citizens from Egypt last spring and ordered the State Department to do all it could to make sure they didn’t return. Much as I’d appreciate the irony of Obama going down exactly the same way Carter did, I wouldn’t like to see any Americans suffer just so that happens. Maybe it’s just me, but it seemed pretty obvious after his demands (and those of his Secretary of State) that justice be done for Lara Logan were met with silence that he had no leverage and no credibility in Egypt. If any confirmation of that was needed, it was delivered when the Egyptians refused to take his calls during the attack on the Israeli embassy.
Maxtrue: Panetta’s betting we just need 182,000 Marines and that all they need are bombers, tankers, some boats and subs along with more drones and cyberwarfare tools.
182,000 Marines is a hell of a lot of Marines. As far as the USMC goes, the problem is not the the size of the Corps. The problem is that so many of their equipment and weaponry programs have been cancelled. But even that is survivable. The Marines have always been last in line when it comes to budgetary concerns, and they’ve got really good history of making do with what they’ve got and still doing the “impossible” anyway. Different story with the Army. The Army needs those mass numbers and it needs all the latest and greatest toys. The Army has been trying to instill a warrior ethic in their people in recent years but the fact of the matter is that in the past the Army has considered troopies to be interchangeable “weapon operators” rather than warriors and that kind of institutionalized doctrine isn’t so easy to change. On the other hand, they are beefing up special ops so much it almost seems like they think they can do without the regular Army. And, they probably can, actually. Right up until the day we find ourselves up against a competent opponent with a credible military.
Anyway, with those… eh… war barges they are building, the STOVL F-35 is more critical then ever since that’s probably the only thing we’ve got besides Osprey, Harriers and Helos that’d be viable on a barge.
barge vs pirates:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoSLZP0e-M4
According to FP Editor Blake Hounshell and many Egyptian tweeps, a major fight broke out today between MB and revolutionaries in Tahrir http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/32925/Egypt/Politics-/Protesters-in-Egypt-turn-out-for-Friday-of-Dignity.aspx
The MB were and are the revolutionaries, Mary. Even if you did convince yourself it was the minute vaguely marxist Egyptian middle-class and privileged youth that was engaging the Egyptian police in pitched battles and winning, it still seems like the obvious public support for the MB and their more extreme fellow travelers should have put to rest any misconceptions about who was really the driving force behind the events of last year.
Craig – don’t tell me who ‘the revolutionaries’ really are, go tell them yourself on twitter. You do know their names, their stories and their motivations… don’t you?
Craig,
Don’t take Mary seriously. She probably travelled to Beirut one time and thinks she is an expert on the Middle East. Egypt is a backwards country and she thinks a few people who like Western music and movies who post on twitter are representative of Egyptians.
Craig – don’t tell me who ‘the revolutionaries’ really are, go tell them yourself on twitter. You do know their names, their stories and their motivations… don’t you?
I suspect I know a lot more of them than you do, Mary, since I’ve never seen you on their blogs and I started reading Egyptian blogs in 2004. I was actually quite interested in who they were and what they wanted during the Kefeya protests of 2005. Again: I didn’t see you on their blogs so where were you? On “Foreign Policy, being sold a bill of goods by some misguided westerners?
These days, I don’t care about Egyptians any more than they care about me or any other Americans.
LFG: Don’t take Mary seriously. She probably travelled to Beirut one time and thinks she is an expert on the Middle East. Egypt is a backwards country and she thinks a few people who like Western music and movies who post on twitter are representative of Egyptians.
I used to read pretty much every Arab blog there was, back in the days when there weren’t many. I was so into it that I had 10x (or more) the profile views of some of my favorite Arab bloggers, and I never even had a blog. The only place I’ve ever seen Mary is right here. I’m not sure what she bases her opinions on, but I’m fairly certain it’s not discussions she’s had with Arabs
LFG – I think that people who post about participating in a protest might know more than Craig does about the occurrences and alliances in said event.
..and I’ve never been to Egypt, so I can’t make any personal observations about Egypt. How often have you visited Egypt? What have you observed when you’ve been there?
Craig,
What gets me is the elections results in Egypt should put to rest any doubt about the culture of Egypt. Despite this, Mary thinks they are all liberal minded people. Egypt won’t see any type of political freedom for at least 40 years. Their society today is much more backwards than the one that produced Khomeini in Iran. Egypt is screwed.
65. Mary Madigan
“LFG – I think that people who post about participating in a protest might know more than Craig does about the occurrences and alliances in said event.
..and I’ve never been to Egypt, so I can’t make any personal observations about Egypt. How often have you visited Egypt? What have you observed when you’ve been there?”
I have been to Egypt two times. I was with my wife the 2nd time. On the first day she had an incident with an Egyptian male who physically groped her. My wife is a blonde American. She was looked at like a piece of meat. I wouldn’t let her 6 inches away from me the rest of our 5 days in Egypt. There is no respect for women there, espeically non hijab western women. Those people on twitter you talk with are the extreme exception in Egypt. Your way of gauging Egypt is like me taking a survey of people in Berkeley, CA and extrapolating the views of all Americans based on that sample.
My wife has been to five Muslim countries, four of them Arab. I’ve taken her to three Arab countries myself and will probably take her to more. But I will never take her to Egypt. Never.
LFG – I was thinking of going to Egypt a while ago, but friends who have been there told me it would be a bad idea, mostly for the reasons you described. I wouldn’t go to Cairo in any case after reading about a wilding/mass assault attack that took place there a few years ago, against women with and without hijabs.
I belong to a scuba group that has offered tours to the Red Sea, and (before the Arab spring) I thought that might be safe, but now there have been reports of Bedouin kidnapping tourists. It’s definitely the Arab winter for the tourism industry in Egypt:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/24/bedouin-tribesmen-egyptian-tourist-resort
Mary you have a good heart and you are optimistic, but I think you give the Egyptians too much of the benefit of the doubt. Egypt is Yemen with pyramids. I could let my wife shop alone in Beirut and nothing would happen to her. 10 minutes alone in Egypt would be a nightmare.
I’ve been to Lebanon a few times, but the only thing I’m a relative ‘expert’ on in the area is good places to eat & get coffee – and wireless connections. If people want to travel to the area, despite Arab Spring upheaval, I’d still recommend visiting Beirut
Craig – I linked to the news report about the protests against the MB as an example that shows that they don’t have the wholehearted support of all Egyptians – not to prove that I’m the supreme, ultimate most ur-biggest expert on the Middle East.
It’s just news.
Mary,
You should visit Jounieh when you visit Lebanon next time. That is where I stay when I visit twice a year.
I think that people who post about participating in a protest might know more than Craig does about the occurrences and alliances in said event.
You think the Muslim Brotherhood and their Salafi friends are on Twitter posting their activities in real time and in English for the purpose of informing you, Mary Madigan, about what’s going on in Egypt? lol
Twitter has become a marketing and public relations tool and an experiment in group-think, and the people who post things you want to hear in a language you understand are the ones who care about influencing your opinions. Even in English, you wouldn’t have to look very hard to find other twitter feeds that are full of things you DO NOT want to hear, but you don’t follow those feeds do you? That’s the genius of twitter, isn’t it? Even if it was entirely by accident, it’s really quite brilliant the way Twitter allows like-minded people to follow their own natural tendencies to reinforce opinions they already have and convince themselves they are entirely in the right while using social pack/herd dynamics to filter out conflicting information. How does it feel to be a just another sheep, Mary? And I’ll ask you one more time before I give up on it: What Egyptian blogs were you engaging Egyptians in debate on? Most of those blogs in English were run by just the kind of Egyptian you like but their comments sections were full of the Egyptians you dismiss and I’d really like to know when you ever confronted them about their hateful bullshit?
LFG: I could let my wife shop alone in Beirut and nothing would happen to her. 10 minutes alone in Egypt would be a nightmare.
This is not a joke.
I don’t believe I’ve ever heard a woman tell me she was sexually harrassed or assaulted in Lebanon. I know it does happen, it happens everywhere, but it has never happened to anyone I know personally that I am aware of.
Egypt is different. I don’t know any women who haven’t been harrassed or assaulted when they visited Cairo.
17 Sammy. I believe that this man summy is BSing all of you. Egypt does not need tourists? He is crazy. France need them, Italy need them, Greece want them, Lebanon and Turkey and Israel are doing any things possible to get them, even the USA does. Tourists create work and bring cash money. For the last 200 years tourism was a major economic resource of Egypt and suddenly no more?
I read with pain Ms Mary Madigan 69 about the cancelled scuba tour to Egypt. Egypt Sinai especially in the south, near Sharem el Scheich is a scuba diver paradise. She exemplify the calamity brought upon Egypt by the Sammi like people. That BS vendor Sammy is talking about making Egypt self suppying in food. It will take billions to revolutionize Egypt ag. in order to feed 80-90 million souls multiplying like mad, from where will that money come? As for industrializing Egypt, it mean giganic investments and people who will work harder than Chinese, longer hours than Chinese, for lower salaries than Chinese.
Tim in several places above told you about the possibility of such eventuallity. As for Egypt making war? The Army is equipped by the USA and I dont think that the USA will agree to such idea. It is going to be bad very bad before it will get better.
Craig – I’ve been blogging for a while, and I’ve gotten into all sorts of debates with various Islamists online. I started blogging about politics after 9/11 because I wanted to debate these issues with Islamists, basically to ‘know the enemy’ by talking to them.
That’s also why I visited Beirut (the first time). I’d been blogging about terrorism for years and, during Hezbollah’s takeover of Martyr’s Square in Dec. 2006, here was an opportunity to meet & interact with Hezbollah supporters in person, during the Hezbollah-sponsored ‘popular uprising’.
I later visited Beirut, Jordan & Israel because I had such a great time & met so many interesting people (who were, as far as I know, not members of the pro-Hezb crowd). – I hoped to write about the area and encourage people to visit.
I wrote about travels & politics on my old blog, Exit Zero (on the blogroll here), and on Solomonia, Dean’s World and on Michael’s Blog. if you want to spend time searching the comments section for various arguments and debates, feel free.
I didn’t talk to many Egyptians, mostly because I wasn’t interested in telling people about the joy of visiting Egypt – most people who’d been there reported no joy. Also, most of the Islamists who had angry political debates with me were Iranians living in the UK or Pakistanis studying in the US (when these discussions devolved into threats against me I’d gather up some info on them). I don’t think many of the angry Islamists I talked to were Egyptian, or maybe the discussion never got to the threat stage..
I only follow people on Twitter – it’s a terrible medium for debate, at least for wordy debaters like me. I have had some pretty interesting discussions with people on Facebook, though.
My Arabic isn’t good enough to have discussions with extremist Arabic speakers, but I have seen so many Memri clips of various Imams declaring war against the Jews that I recognize the “Jew hiding behind the trees and stones” clip without translation..
LFG – Thanks for the recommendation!
Mary,
Do not travel to Egypt without a protective male.It would be wise of you to cancel the trip altogether. It is also no joke when I say that the average drunk at a strip club is more respectful of a stripper than the average Egyptian male is respectful of a normal dressed woman. I am not even talking about normal cat calls that a lot of women especially in the west think of as sexual harassment either. Mary if you want to read comments by angry Egyptians who speak English read Al Jazeera English comments under their stories. You will get a good idea of how they view freedom in the Islamic sense.
Craig,
I think Mary is well intentioned with the Egyptians. I just think that she was too optimistic about how many political liberals exist in Egypt.
Mary, thanks for the explanation but I’m not sure I follow. As far as the blogging, you were hoping to engage Islamists on the blogs of westerners? I’m familiar with the blogs you mentioned and I think I even looked at your old one a time or two, but Michael Totten’s blog is the only western one I’ve ever been a regular on, and the only other western blog besides his I’ve ever been on at all was Andrew Exum’s and that’s a milblog. How much do you think you learn about “the enemy” by waiting for them to show up and engage you on your own home turf? The real “enemy” isn’t going to be spending time on English language blogs of westerners any more than a serious Islamophobe right-wing white supremacist is going to spending time on Arab blogs in the middle-east. The “Islamists” you meet that way are more likely to be idiot college students whose parents immigrated to western countries to get away from Islamists
Anyway, I agree with what LFG said. I think your heart is in the right place. I just don’t want to be lectured about who the enemy is by you, because I’m not so sure you know. I’m not so sure I know, but I think I’ve spent more time looking him in the face than you have.
Also, most of the Islamists who had angry political debates with me were Iranians living in the UK…
Iranian Islamists is almost an oxymoron, especially when it comes to expats. I’ve had my account deleted from Iranian.com twice by the site owner and he’s a guy who as a young man returned to Iran to work for the IRI as a propagandist shortly after the Islamic Revolution. He’s a hardcore leftist and I seriously doubt he’s ever even read the Quran. Yet, he was such a believer that he had to leave his comfortable life behind and go pimp for Khomeini. Now he’s supposedly hot after getting rid of the regime. And yet, he deleted me twice from his website for saying the same kinds of things I say here. The more I’ve interacted with Iranians, the less I’ve understood them. Online, at least. Though I have to say that in person, I’ve never met an Iranian I didn’t like.
“As for Egypt making war? The Army is equipped by the USA and I dont think that the USA will agree to such idea.”
I don’t mean to imply that Egypt would go to war, but this reason of why it can’t isn’t convincing. Iran was also supplied by the US with weapons, but that didn’t stop them. Egypt is pretty self-sufficient. The more realistic reason why Egypt is not likely to go to war with Israel or anyone else is that whatever MB wins in elections, it won’t win the control of the army. The army is still the same as it was under Mubarak and has as much appetite for war as it did under Mubarak.
Iran was invaded by Iraq which prior to the revolution was militarily inferior to Iran. And even so they had to resort to human-wave attacks to push the Iraqis back in the end. In addition, Iran was and is an oil rich country whereas Egypt is a very poor country. Also, Iraq had no allies (other than Arabs) when that war started and even when that changed and western countries started helping Iraq, the military assistance was slight and at the same time the Russians started helping the Iranians. I don’t think there’s much similarity.
The more realistic reason why Egypt is not likely to go to war with Israel or anyone else is that whatever MB wins in elections, it won’t win the control of the army. The army is still the same as it was under Mubarak and has as much appetite for war as it did under Mubarak.
Which is just another way of saying that they know they will lose and they don’t want another humiliation on their plate. However, I don’t think the Muslim Brotherhood cares about a military victory as long as they can claim an ideological one, and since you used the “Iran” example earlier I’ll take this opportunity to point out that Khomeini took advantage of the war with Iraq to seize direct control over the Iranian military, liquidating all the senior officers in the process. How many terrorist attacks by “unknown people” crossing from Egypt into Israel would it take to provoke a war? There was an attack on the Israeli embassy last year in addition to a cross-border incursion that led to attacks on innocent Israeli civilians. How much of that will Israeli tolerate?
How much do you think you learn about “the enemy” by waiting for them to show up and engage you on your own home turf?
Craig – I did most of my blogging at Exit Zero and other local sites, but I got most of my information from sites like “Arab News”, Asia Times, Ikhwanweb, Press TV, the Kavkaz Center. If I wanted to have an interesting discussion, though, it would be best to do that on my home turf, which collects enough info to allow problematic commenters to be traced. Most online Islamists are reasonably web-savvy, and if they want to find out who is talking about them, they can.
British websites are full of Islamists hoping to tell their side of the story. There are probably more Islamists per square foot in the London School of Economics than there are in Tahrir Square.
Which sites did you use to gather information? Do you speak Arabic?
LFG – Thanks for the warning – I’m not planning to go to Egypt at all. Right now I’m working on a book about the hiking + the space program in New Mexico, so I probably won’t be able to get to the Middle East for awhile.
Since I believe that the Egyptian problem with sexual assault in Egypt is mostly due to the fact that the government and the society don’t consider this a crime, I won’t go to Egypt until the people who are responsible for the many assaults against women in Egypt, including the Lara Logan attack, are suitably punished: hopefully by hanging them and leaving them to rot in Tahrir square.
When that happens, I’ll go to Egypt
Check out Google’s new “privacy policy notice”, Max:
We’re getting rid of over 60 different privacy policies across Google and replacing them with one that’s a lot shorter and easier to read. Our new policy covers multiple products and features, reflecting our desire to create one beautifully simple and intuitive experience across Google.
This stuff matters, so please read our updated Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service when you have a few minutes. These changes will take effect on March 1, 2012.
They are right. It does matter. Therefore, this is what I think Google needs to do:
Have a check box that says: “I don’t want Google to data mine my computer’s hard drive or any other storage device attached to or accessible from my computer, sift through my computer’s memory, peek at my browser’s cookies, store unnecessary tracking cookies, run applets in the background that monitor my computer usage, tap into networks my computer may be connected to for purposes of packet-sniffing, or in any other way gather any information on me that I have not specifically chosen to provide to Google”
And another checkbox that says: “I don’t want Google to provide any information that it has lawfully and with my consent obtained from me to any third party, whether that be an advertizer, a Google partner, a government agency or any other entity except with a court order or my explicit consent, and if done with my consent only that information I have consented to have released shall be released and no more than that, and only to the third party I have consented to have it released to. Furthermore, Google will accept responsibility for ensuring that third party handles this privileged information as confidentially as Google itself does.”
Those two checkboxes should be the default settings, of course. And actually since I doubt there’s one person in a million who actually WANTS Google to be digging through their stuff they could just omit the checkboxes and do it that way, which is what they would have been doing all along if they had any integrity at all.
Mary,
If I wanted to have an interesting discussion, though, it would be best to do that on my home turf, which collects enough info to allow problematic commenters to be traced. Most online Islamists are reasonably web-savvy, and if they want to find out who is talking about them, they can.
I think you’ve got Islamists all wrong right from the start if you think they’d be at all interested in seeking you out to discuss your political views or your opinions about them. About the only thing an Islamist would want to talk to a western woman about is her conversion to Islam and I’m guessing they wouldn’t have you pegged as a candidate for that
British websites are full of Islamists hoping to tell their side of the story. There are probably more Islamists per square foot in the London School of Economics than there are in Tahrir Square.
Really? Well, I’ve only been to London twice and I admit I found it a bit off-putting seeing how many women were parading around in hijab with their families acting like they owned the place. At the airport I even had a girl must have been no more than 12 years old cut me off in line and then turn around and give me the evil eye like “what are you gonna do about it!?” but then her dad (or her husband?) yelled at her and dragged her off when (I think) he figured out I might actually do something about it using him as a communications device. We have a lot of Muslims in Los Angeles where I live but I’ve never seen anything like that before.
Are you sure what they are trying to do is “tell their side of the story”, though?
Which sites did you use to gather information? Do you speak Arabic?
No, I don’t speak Arabic. I have a friend who used to translate for me on skype but she got tired of being my personal translator years ago. As far as “gathering information”, I’ve read many articles on the sites you listed and on others, but almost always when they were posted by a blogger or when they were linked in a blog comment section. Same as here on MJT’s. I found it a lot more interesting to argue about what was in the articles with people who had a different point of view. It can be shocking to realize sane people can agree with something you think no sane person would agree with, and it’s quite a puzzle trying to figure out how that can happen.
Craig — you say that “it can be shocking to realize sane people can agree with something you think no sane person would agree with.” Yes, it is indeed shocking, and I think that’s because many people present themselves as “sane,” and so you go along thinking they’re sane. Then suddenly, when you get to talking with them about things beyond just surface topics, they start in on an unprovoked rant or out-of-control tirade, and you see that they are ANYTHING but sane. Lot of folks like that.
Craig,
I read through Mary’s blog archives she did a good report on Lebanon that was accurate in my opinion. I agree with her about debating Islamists on her own turf on her blog. I received some threatening messages from people online before. I think she is being wise.
Wow, Harold, sounds like you run into nutters all the time. Glad I don’t hang out wherever you hang out
LebaneseForcesGuy,
I read through Mary’s blog archives she did a good report on Lebanon that was accurate in my opinion. I agree with her about debating Islamists on her own turf on her blog.
Sure, that’d be great if they showed up for the debate. But they won’t.
I received some threatening messages from people online before. I think she is being wise.
I’ve gotten a few threats too, including one death threat. I’ve also seen a lot of threatening messages on blogs to the bloggers where personal info on the blogger was divulged that nobody should have had. There are a lot of creeps out there on the blogs and that seems to be especially true in the middle-east. I’m not trying to tell Mary what to do. I don’t even read Arab blogs anymore except for one, infrequently. I’m just trying to point out she might not be as finely tuned to what’s going on in the Arab world as she believes she is.
“Iran was invaded by Iraq which prior to the revolution was militarily inferior to Iran. And even so they had to resort to human-wave attacks to push the Iraqis back in the end. In addition, Iran was and is an oil rich country whereas Egypt is a very poor country. Also, Iraq had no allies (other than Arabs) when that war started and even when that changed and western countries started helping Iraq, the military assistance was slight and at the same time the Russians started helping the Iranians. I don’t think there’s much similarity.”
Actually I don’t think any of that is historically accurate. My point was that Egypt is militarily self sufficient; ie there are no systems which require continued US assistance to operate or maintain. Neither did Iran in 1980, even though its military consisted entirely of US-made equipment.
My recollection was that the Iranians pretty much pushed out and demolished the Iraqis by 1982. It wasn’t until the Al-Faw offensives much later in the war that Iran’s military power was diminished through attrition to the point of “human wave” assaults. Ie Iran, with no US assistance, was able to utilize its US arsenal to pretty much defeat a much larger Iraq military. Iraq had no support but the USSR supported Iran? You got that one backwards, I’m sure.
“Which is just another way of saying that they know they will lose and they don’t want another humiliation on their plate. However, I don’t think the Muslim Brotherhood cares about a military victory as long as they can claim an ideological one”
No I think its a way of saying that the Egyptian military isn’t controlled by the MB, yet. If anything, the Egyptian military is using the MB. Nor does it want to go to war with Israel, not only because it knows it will lose, but also because it will lose financial support from the US and jeopardize their control of the country. The army, like all Arab armies, has as its main goal internal control, not fighting outsiders.
“I’ll take this opportunity to point out that Khomeini took advantage of the war with Iraq to seize direct control over the Iranian military, liquidating all the senior officers in the process.”
Sure. Things could turn out to be that way in Egypt. I don’t think the situation is similar, however. The Iranian military of the Shah was a professional fighting force. It didn’t have the political cunning to take on the Ayatollah. Egypt’s army isn’t an army, its a mafia organization which has been controlling Egypt since Nasser.
“How many terrorist attacks by “unknown people” crossing from Egypt into Israel would it take to provoke a war? There was an attack on the Israeli embassy last year in addition to a cross-border incursion that led to attacks on innocent Israeli civilians. How much of that will Israeli tolerate?”
A lot. Besides, the Egyptian military has been stopping such attacks.
“Iran was invaded by Iraq which prior to the revolution was militarily inferior to Iran. And even so they had to resort to human-wave attacks to push the Iraqis back in the end. In addition, Iran was and is an oil rich country whereas Egypt is a very poor country. Also, Iraq had no allies (other than Arabs) when that war started and even when that changed and western countries started helping Iraq, the military assistance was slight and at the same time the Russians started helping the Iranians. I don’t think there’s much similarity.”
What Craig stated was correct. Iran’s military was the 4th most powerful in the world under the Shah. Saddam and the Shah had a border dispute and the Shah had his air force fly f-16s over baghdad and it scared Saddam. Iraq didn’t receive much support from outside the Arab world against Iran until after 1982 when the liberation of khorramshahr and the war turned in Iran’s favor. The Saudis offered to pay Iran reparations and help rebuild parts of their country at this time to broker a peace agreement that Saddam agreed to that was even favorable to the Iranians, but Khomeini wanted to liberate Quds (Jerusalem) via Karabala thus a war was extended 6 more years. Iran used human wave attacks against Saddam’s army this is well known.
Albanian, I’m not a “military expert” except in a few very specific areas and the Iran/Iraq war is not one of them, nor is pretty much anything at an operational or strategic level. I’m just winging it from memory based on the maybe 2 dozen times I’ve had this argument before. Including once with an Iraqi blogger (who was a physician, of all things) who claimed the Iranians dropped mustard gas on themselves just to make Saddam look bad and provided “proof”(see my earlier comment about seemingly sane people who believe what no sane person should believe). It’s very possible I got something wrong. If you want to challenge anything in particular I said I’ll be happy to take it up with you.
If anything, the Egyptian military is using the MB.
They are using each-other, but that won’t last. And from where I’m sitting it doesn’t look like the momentum is with the Egyptian military.
Nor does it want to go to war with Israel, not only because it knows it will lose, but also because it will lose financial support from the US and jeopardize their control of the country.
They don’t seem to care very much about their relationship with the US. That may just be a show they are putting on for the anti-American public, but even if it is I can think of quite a few scenarios in which they would have no choice but to go to war with Israel. Even knowing they will lose.
The army, like all Arab armies, has as its main goal internal control, not fighting outsiders.
I’d agree their main object is suppression, but they enjoy doing that to outsiders even more than they enjoy doing it to their own people don’t they? The problem Arab armies have with Israel is they’ve got to kick Israel’s ass before they can start in with the human rights abuses and so far they aren’t anywhere near good enough to do that.
Sure. Things could turn out to be that way in Egypt. I don’t think the situation is similar, however. The Iranian military of the Shah was a professional fighting force. It didn’t have the political cunning to take on the Ayatollah. Egypt’s army isn’t an army, its a mafia organization which has been controlling Egypt since Nasser.
And Khomeini was living in exile in Iraq and France until after the Shah vacated Iran, whereas the Muslim Brotherhood was founded when Nasser was 10 years old and has been firmly entrenched in Egypt since before World War II. They aren’t exactly neophytes. Even the mullahs of Iran drew on the MB for inspiration.
(re attacks by Egypt on Israel) A lot. Besides, the Egyptian military has been stopping such attacks.
Why “a lot”? Are you assuming that just because war with Egypt is the last thing Israelis want that they won’t respond unless they have no choice? If I had to bet on it I’d go with the Israelis seizing the initiative and trying to knock Egypt out of the fight before they can get fully mobilized, if they decide that war is inevitable.
And Egypt stopping the attacks? Yeah, when it suits them to I guess. Their belligerent attitude even when they are the ones at fault is hardly reassuring when it comes to trying to predict the future though, is it? It’s almost as creepy as when the Pakistanis charge people with treason for helping us find Osama bin Ladin.
I’m not trying to tell Mary what to do. I don’t even read Arab blogs anymore except for one, infrequently. I’m just trying to point out she might not be as finely tuned to what’s going on in the Arab world as she believes she is.
Craig – When I was writing for Pajamas Media and Campus Watch, I was pretty finely tuned to what was going on in the Arab World, because I was being paid for what I wrote and I wanted to produce a decent article.
But I’m not writing about politics or foreign policy anymore (for money), so I don’t spend a large portion of my day researching facts. But since I still keep in touch with friends who write about or live in the area, I have an idea about what’s going on.
Last summer when I was traveling with my husband & business associates in Tunisia, I saw a protest going on and could help myself – I ran after the march with my camera and (like most of the crowd) got yelled at by the cops. According to locals that I talked to, they had these protests every day and, even in the area, everyone has a different opinion about who is causing this and where it will end up.
When you were on the Arab blogs, did you listen to people, or did you try to shout them down, as you’re doing with me? You’re not going to learn anything by trying to bully anyone who disagrees with you on the subject of the Middle East or the Arab spring, because differences of opinion are the nature of the subject.
Yeah, uh…(LFG)
The Shah never had F-16′s. His air force had way too many F-4′s, F-5′s, and F-14′s (all of which are currently being phased out, cannibalized for parts on a three for one basis, or falling out of the air on their own).
Perhaps you are thinking of the 1969 dispute over the Shatt al-Arab? That was the Shah’s navy that sent the message to Saddam, causing Saddam to back down.
===
So…Russian T-72′s, T-80′s, or Belgian Leopard 1A5′s, or more US M-60A3TTS? Those old Pattons are wearing out fast, aren’t they?
WHY
ASK
WHY?,
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Iraq had no support but the USSR supported Iran? You got that one backwards, I’m sure.
Nope, the USSR started backing Iran even though it had previously backed (and supplied) Iraq. For a couple of reasons. Iran had just committed an overt act of war against the US in addition to abruptly and violently ending it’s status as a US client. In addition, Soviets had just invaded Afghanistan the year before the Iran-Iraq war started and a decent relationship with the IRI became a lot more valuable to them than a decent relationship with Iraq as a result. But their support for the IRI was just as minimal as western support for Iraq so it wasn’t a deciding factor.
My point was that Egypt is militarily self sufficient; ie there are no systems which require continued US assistance to operate or maintain. Neither did Iran in 1980, even though its military consisted entirely of US-made equipment.
Iran’s military power was diminished through attrition to the point of “human wave” assaults.
There’s a contradiction in there
Egypt cannot replace any tank, truck, armored vehicle, plane, helicopter, heavy weapon system, radar, etc without purchasing a new one from either the US or somebody else. They cannot repair anything that’s damaged without spares and they have to buy those replacement parts from the US (or somebody who will sell them US made parts). They do have some capacity to manufacture smallarms and ammunition but if those factories are hit (and they will be) they will have to purchase that from the US or somebody else as well. And they will run out of ammo very soon because the ammo dumps will be primary targets (as will supply convoys) and Egypt does not have the ability to protect them. I’m just about certain that Israel has the capability of inflicting losses on Egypt far more rapidly than Iraq did when it comes to Iran during the 1980s so that crises of attrition will happen PDQ. What does Egypt do then? And especially considering Egyptians don’t even produce enough food to feed their population? I think I read an article a couple years ago that said Egypt imports 40% of its food and something like 80% of its wheat? That’s a humanitarian catastrophe waiting to happen. I wish I had a dollar for every time I saw an Egyptian bitch and moan about Sadat and the camp David Accords without ever bothering to look into why that agreement was so important to Sadat. Might not make me rich but it’s pay for a nice weekend getaway at least.
Mary,
When you were on the Arab blogs, did you listen to people, or did you try to shout them down, as you’re doing with me?
If you’d been on the Arab blogs all those years that I was, you would know the answer to that question. But since you weren’t, you don’t.
You’re not going to learn anything by trying to bully anyone who disagrees with you on the subject of the Middle East or the Arab spring, because differences of opinion are the nature of the subject.
Here is your first comment to me in this thread:
Mary @69: Craig – don’t tell me who ‘the revolutionaries’ really are, go tell them yourself on twitter. You do know their names, their stories and their motivations… don’t you?
That was an unprovoked and insulting smartass comment that challenged my “credentials” to state my opinions on “Arab” matters. Don’t dish it out if you can’t take it.
“I received some threatening messages from people online before. I think she is being wise.
I’ve gotten a few threats too, including one death threat.”
Hamas, the government elected by the Palestinians over the more “moderate” Fatah (Fatah is merely led by a Holocaust denier), has a standing death threat against every Jew in the world. I just wanted to point that out before sammi starts spouting his bullshit again about MEMRI “cherry picking”.
Craig — thanks for your comment about meeting “nutters”. It gave me a good laugh. Actually, the vast majority of folks I meet are fine. It’s just that I’ve learned over the years to spot the nutters quickly and I give them a very wide berth.
Craig – I can ‘take’ pointless arguments, but usually feel the need to note that they are pointless.
When I said: “According to FP Editor Blake Hounshell and many Egyptian tweeps, a major fight broke out today between MB and revolutionaries in Tahrir..”
you said: “.. Even if you did convince yourself it was the minute vaguely marxist Egyptian middle-class and privileged youth that was engaging the Egyptian police in pitched battles and winning..”
Even though the text of the post was not mine, it was the opinion of Blake Hounshell, editor of Foreign Policy magazine.
https://twitter.com/#!/blakehounshell
Mary, you must be the only one here who makes an effort to link and quote stuff she doesn’t agree with, but then not point out where you disagree
You say I don’t listen and that I just shout people down? I’ve been arguing with you about the way turn everything into “Saudi Arabia this, Saudi Arabia that” for years and for most of that time I was quite civil about it. Looks to me that you’re the one who doesn’t listen since despite your claims of knowing a lot of people with inside information about the ME you’ve got a one-track mind when it comes to Islam and Islamists and “it’s all about Saudi Arabia” is certainly not where very many people in the middle-east OR in Washington DC are at. When it comes to the “bullying” accusation, I followed LFG’s lead and decided maybe I was being a bit too much of a jerk and tried to tone it down. You seem to have interpreted that as a cowardly retreat on my part and escalated. Who does that?
Craig and LFG, you got one thing wrong again. Iraq certainly received lots and lots of military support from outside prior to the war with Iran, and certainly prior to 1982. How exactly do you think the Iraqi military was equipped with thousands of Soviet tanks and planes before the war started? If that isn’t military support, what is? You do remember that the first MiG-21 Israel and the US got their hands on came from Iraq in 1966. Iraq was a very major client state for the USSR, and they never stopped supplying military equipment to Iraq up till the 1991 Gulf War.
Second, no USSR never supported militarily Iran, as in supplied any military hardware. Not until after the war had ended. In fact, the USSR had send military equipment to the Shah before then, but certainly not during the war. (there is no contradiction between what I said that Iran could maintain its own equipment, but that it also suffered attrition throughout the war. The two are not related. You can maintain you car, but if it is destroyed in a crash, it is gone)
Third, Craig the argument as to whether Egypt will be able to “protect” its assets in case of war is different as to whether it is depended on the US for their operation. It is not. After all, Egypt has been assembling M1 tanks since 1988. The industrial base for their maintenance was already bought as part of the contract.
Fourth, you may be exaggerating about the a) hostility between the Egyptian military and the US or Israel and b) the likelihood that relations are either going to break down or deteriorating. The Egyptian military and the US maintain, still, a close working relationship. Just as an example, In January 5th of 2012, (3 weeks ago) General Dynamics received a $11 million contract for continued assistance to Egypt’s military. This follows a $43 million contract from Dec 30 2011 (1 month ago) for ammunition. This follows a November 17th 2011 order for 125 more M1A1 tank kits worth $1.329 billion. Egypt is also spending about $3.2 billion to purchase additional F-16 planes. Just in Dec 7 2011, a $17 million contract was signed to upgrade facilities at Cairo West airbase to support the new procurement.
IE, the Egyptian military has no interest in breaking ties with the US. It has no interest in creating hostilities. The US, apparently, has no interest in breaking ties either.
Sometimes its not just about the politics one reads in the newspapers.
Albanian,
Iraq certainly received lots and lots of military support from outside prior to the war with Iran, and certainly prior to 1982.
Of course they did. What I stated was that when the war started, Iraq had no allies besides Arabs. I said nothing about BEFORE the war started.
How exactly do you think the Iraqi military was equipped with thousands of Soviet tanks and planes before the war started? If that isn’t military support, what is?
I’m not going to argue about things I never said. Iraq was a soviet client, and Iran was a US client. Everyone knows or should know that. After the revolution in Iran that was precisely inverted though neither Iraq nor Iran ever received the kind of military assistance from their new sponsors that they had from their old ones.
Second, no USSR never supported militarily Iran, as in supplied any military hardware. Not until after the war had ended.
Yes, they officially has a stance of “neutrality” as they wanted both Iraq AND Iran as clients. Nevertheless, they shipped weapons for Iran to Libya and Syria, and Iran did receive those weapons. I’m sure you know very well the dirty games the USSR played during the Cold War. Of course, that’s all over now
Third, Craig the argument as to whether Egypt will be able to “protect” its assets in case of war is different as to whether it is depended on the US for their operation. It is not. After all, Egypt has been assembling M1 tanks since 1988. The industrial base for their maintenance was already bought as part of the contract.
I’m glad you said “assembling” there, and not “manufacturing”. This is one thing we don’t have to argue about. I view the stipulation that tanks Egypt buys from the US be (partially) assembled in Egypt as kind of a welfare hand-out and a jobs program. In any case, it’s not at all the same thing as Egypt building its own tanks.
Fourth, you may be exaggerating about the a) hostility between the Egyptian military and the US or Israel and b) the likelihood that relations are either going to break down or deteriorating.
I may be. Or you may downplaying those items. I’m just going with my own perceptions, and I assume that’s what you are doing too.
The Egyptian military and the US maintain, still, a close working relationship.
The US military follows orders. The US military will not be deciding America’s policy towards Egypt, now or in the future.
Just as an example, In January 5th of 2012, (3 weeks ago) General Dynamics received a $11 million contract for continued assistance to Egypt’s military. This follows a $43 million contract from Dec 30 2011 (1 month ago) for ammunition. This follows a November 17th 2011 order for 125 more M1A1 tank kits worth $1.329 billion. Egypt is also spending about $3.2 billion to purchase additional F-16 planes. Just in Dec 7 2011, a $17 million contract was signed to upgrade facilities at Cairo West airbase to support the new procurement.
Yes, and do you know one of the major grievances of the IRI with the US in the early 1980s was that we wouldn’t fill all those contracts we had with the Shah, nor return their money? There’s not much to laugh about when it comes to that period of history, but I’ve always found that pretty funny
IE, the Egyptian military has no interest in breaking ties with the US. It has no interest in creating hostilities.
My feeling is that the Egyptian military wants to maintain those ties with the US while spitting in America’s face and issuing ultimatums. They come across as if they feel very entitled to special treatment.
The US, apparently, has no interest in breaking ties either.
Why would we want to break ties with Egypt? Nonetheless, it’s a relationship of convenience not of genuine mutual interests so if Egypt tries to take the US someplace we don’t want to be that relationship will be broken. Egypt is not Britain (and etc Anglosphere), South Korea, Japan, or Israel. Egypt is not even a France on the scale of priorities with Americans. It’s much closer to being a “Pakistan” though it’s not quite there yet.
Sometimes its not just about the politics one reads in the newspapers.
Oh, it never is THAT
Albanian,
In one of my earlier posts in this thread I said the Iraqi army was Soviet and Chinese equipped for the most part. Don’t put words in my mouth.
PS: If worst comes to worst and the US does cancel all those contracts for Egyptian military equipment due to Egyptians being assholes, it won’t be nearly as funny as it was with Iran since it will be our own money we are sanctioning. Actually, I think it may be the Egyptians who end up snickering over that.
Craig, this is what you said originally:
“Also, Iraq had no allies (other than Arabs) when that war started and even when that changed and western countries started helping Iraq, the military assistance was slight and at the same time the Russians started helping the Iranians.”
This is what I addressed. What you said here is not historically accurate. You claim here that Iraq had no “allies”, and that military assistance was slight and later on. Clearly this isn’t the case. Iraq was massively supplied by the USSR, and the USSR never “switched sides” in the slightest. Not just the USSR, but Iraq was supplied militarily by many nations before, during, throughout etc etc the war. There’s no point in you trying to split hair by saying “well I meant at the beginning of the war not before the war” etc. The USSR and most other East European countries never stopped supplying Iraq with military assistance throughout any point in time from the 1960s till 1991.
Second, The USSR never supplied Iran with weapons during the conflict. The USSR never switched sides, because it never took sides. It sold weapons to whomever it pleased. It sold weapons to the Shah as well (when he was buying US equipment). Now it is true that Libya and Syria provided weapons to Iran. That doesn’t mean they did so under orders, or approval, of the USSR. That is not the sort of relationship these countries had. The weapons these countries supplied to Iran were for the vast majority, not Soviet weapons. Nor did the USSR even control whom its own satellite states in Eastern Europe could export weapons to. Poland, Czechoslovakia and Romania were frequently selling weapons to anyone and all takers (including Iran), and even competing with the USSR in those markets. But ultimately, it is very much not historically accurate to say that the USSR “switched sides to Iran” at any point in time during the war.
“In any case, it’s not at all the same thing as Egypt building its own tanks.”
I never claimed that. I said they are “self sufficient”; ie they do not require US “approval” to use their weapons. In order to operate and sustain your weapons you need the technical capacity to maintain them. Egypt certainly has this. This is unrelated to being able to “produce” weapons. Your car mechanic can’t “produce” your car, but he can maintain it independently of the car manufacturer.
“The US military follows orders. The US military will not be deciding America’s policy towards Egypt, now or in the future.”
But I never said US military. I said “US”. Egypt doesn’t buy anything from the US military. It buys from US companies. The US government approves such sales.
“My feeling is that the Egyptian military wants to maintain those ties with the US while spitting in America’s face and issuing ultimatums. ”
What “ultimatums” have they issued?
“It’s much closer to being a “Pakistan” though it’s not quite there yet.”
We’re still selling weapons to the Pakistani military, BTW.
LFG, this is what you said:
“Iraq didn’t receive much support from outside the Arab world against Iran until after 1982 ”
I doesn’t look like I put any words in your mouth
Albanian,
In the war effort against Iran they didn’t receive much direct support. It was mainly financed by the Gulf States.
42. LebaneseForcesGuy
Albanian,
That is absolutely correct. Saddam’s military was built with Soviet and Chinese weapons, yet people are always cursing the US saying the US created Saddam. In terms of his chemcial program the bulk of that came from the Bonn government in Germany. So when Sammy says people curse the US and not Germany because Germany has never “meddled” or supplied despots, he is full of shit.
Craig, this is what you said originally:
“Also, Iraq had no allies (other than Arabs) when that war started and even when that changed and western countries started helping Iraq, the military assistance was slight and at the same time the Russians started helping the Iranians.”
This is what I addressed. What you said here is not historically accurate. You claim here that Iraq had no “allies”, and that military assistance was slight and later on.
“When that war started” means “at the time that war started”. It doesn’t mean before or after
Albanian: Now it is true that Libya and Syria provided weapons to Iran. That doesn’t mean they did so under orders, or approval, of the USSR.
Oh, come on. Next you’ll be claiming that just because Syria has provided weapons it got from Iran to Hezbollah it doesn’t mean the IRI approves of that. I don’t know how old you are but I have a feeling you’re old enough to know better than to advance these kinds of semantic arguments and expect to have them taken seriously by anyone who actually remembers the Cold War.
And by the way, it’s true that the IRI has never been formally a client of the USSR nor of Russia now but that’s because Khomeini rejected them. His Revolutionary Ideology calls for an Islamic empire that is dependent on neither east nor west and his arrogance required him and his successors to try to maintain that fiction, though it didn’t and doesn’t require them to take all the help they can beg, borrow, steal or extort out of everyone and anyone while asserting their supremacy all the while. Hence the weapons trans-shipments of Russian weapons from Libya and Syria until after the war was over, and the taking of hostages in Lebanon in exchange for American weapons. And speaking of that, the IRI even took help from the evil zionist entity during the 1980s and doesn’t that pretty much say all that needs to be said?
” In terms of his [Saddam's] chemcial program the bulk of that came from the Bonn government in Germany. So when Sammy says people curse the US and not Germany because Germany has never “meddled” or supplied despots, he is full of shit.”
Arabs may also appreciate German efforts on behalf of the Palestinians in the 1930s and ’40s, if you follow my drift.
“In the war effort against Iran they didn’t receive much direct support. It was mainly financed by the Gulf States.”
Who financed it isn’t related to who supplied the weapons. The USSR, of course, provided more than plenty of weapons “in the war effort against Iran”.
““When that war started” means “at the time that war started”. It doesn’t mean before or after”
You know the war lasted 8 years? During that time the USSR supplied thousands of tanks and aircraft.
“Oh, come on.”
Well first of all, its not a semantic argument. Libya and Syria didn’t take orders from the USSR. But more importantly, we know quite well what politics were behind Libya’s and Syria’s support for Iran (they hatred for Saddam). And we also know quite well that the majority of the weapons they shipped to Iran, weren’t Soviet weapons. They were French, Chinese and North Korean. Syria and Hezbollah today are totally different animals.
” Hence the weapons trans-shipments of Russian weapons from Libya and Syria until after the war was over”
But these weren’t Russian weapons
I followed LFG’s lead and decided maybe I was being a bit too much of a jerk and tried to tone it down. You seem to have interpreted that as a cowardly retreat on my part and escalated. Who does that?
You believe that saying “I’m just trying to point out she might not be as finely tuned to what’s going on in the Arab world as she believes she is” is an example of toning it down?
I don’t think ‘toning it down’ means what you think it means.
Unfortunately, I just found out from the urban dictionary that ‘tweeps’ doesn’t mean what I thought it meant. Tweeps are followers of your twitter site, or novices in twitter. Apparently tweeple or twitterians is the proper twitterverse term
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Tweeps
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=tweeple
Craig, its been quite busy here in NYC. Sorry I haven’t been following more closely. USS Ponce is an over due attempt to deal with the very clear approach Iran has been building in the Gulf. Now the military admits the 30,000 lb MOAB won’t go through Fordo and now wants a super MOAB (eh Render?).
Obama should have been doing this all long ago, but at this rate we’ll probably be looking a the summer before sanctions and readiness are set (if they even are by then). I think Obama wanted to stop a strike many here thought was coming very soon. Still, KSA is going to have more advanced fighters than Israel. Jordan flirts with Hamas. Assad still butchers as Russian ships unload at Tartus.
Watch for Obama to time some action for his election strategy. He might make Rove look amateur. Yes, 182,000 marines are a lot, but I was drawing attention to what supports them. Many of the tools are not there and the Naval and Air Force tools are in question. My thoughts are that the Marines are to fight to establish the beach head or FOB until the cavalry comes in. Not sure the cavalry will be there as Marines become some kind of Special Ops.
Del, yes…move Obama.
Michael, I don’t think I specifically expressed my condolences to your wife. It was after all, her brother. Time heals, but I have a particular hostility to death. We are all far to vulnerable to death’s whim. Had the world put all the money it spent on war and violence, we all would have much longer life-spans. My deepest sympathies for your wife and her immediate family.
Mary,
You believe that saying “I’m just trying to point out she might not be as finely tuned to what’s going on in the Arab world as she believes she is” is an example of toning it down?
Absolutely. That was a hell of a lot nicer than continuing to challenge your credentials as I had been planning on doing, and it was a hell of a lot nicer than what you said to me.
I don’t think ‘toning it down’ means what you think it means.
And I don’t think you know what “bullying” means.
Haven’t read anything about the USS Ponce, Max. You have a link?
My thoughts are that the Marines are to fight to establish the beach head or FOB until the cavalry comes in. Not sure the cavalry will be there as Marines become some kind of Special Ops.
There’s always been a school of thought that says that’s how it is supposed to work. Marines use their expeditionary capacity and their unpleasant disposition to punch holes through enemy lines, seize airfields, ports, railheads, etc and then the Army moves in to relieve them. However, as far as I know that’s never actually happened. Marines fight alone during major conflicts. If anything, I’m guessing the new game plan is for special ops to go in first and to call in the Marines as the “cavalry” when they get into trouble they can’t handle. Where is the regular Army in this picture? What’s their role? Occupation and garrison duty?
Craig – when a discussion devolves into “he said she said”, it’s gone past ad hominem and directly into ‘boring the cr*p out of everyone else on thread’ territory; so if thinking that you won will end it, feel free -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9040609/US-could-increase-Pacific-presence-with-return-to-the-Philippines.html
Alarmed by China’s increasingly aggressive posturing over territorial disputes and energy rights in the South China Sea, officials from Philippines are holding talks today and tomorrow in the US capital about the possibility of US Navy ships operating out of the Philippines in the future. More joint exercises between the two countries and the deployment of American ground troops are also being discussed.
I loved being in the PI when I was there and it’s my favorite place in the whole world outside the US. And I do think the US should do whatever it can to help the Filipinos, including military support. However, I’d think long and hard about a significant US military presence in the Philippines if the decision was up to me.
Max @115, nm about the USS Ponce. I found an article about that. Damn! Well, I’ve never been on on LPD but I’ve been on two LSDs which are roughly the same size (and even older) but carry fewer troops and helos but more landing craft and it’s doable. I’m sure they’ll get used to racks stacked so high they have to get out and crawl back in just to turn over. The SEALs should be OK with that already, we even had SEALs with us Marines back when I was in. Not sure about the Army guys. I foresee lots of vomit in their future, and I just KNOW the Army is going to end up with the berthing areas right above the boiler room.
Seems like a sensible use for those old troop transports. I read another article talking about barges and it had me worried somebody at DoD had lost it.
Another story on the Egyptian regime’s recent actions
http://news.yahoo.com/u-embassy-shelters-americans-amid-egypt-ngo-crackdown-171743321.html