Al-Sharq al-Aswat reports that Israel nearly went to war with Lebanon last week, and that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak out of it at the last minute. I don’t know if that’s true. My Israeli sources say they don’t know. Either way, it’s bound to get the authorites in Beirut—such as they are—to sit up and take notice.
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I find it hard to believe that Ehud Barak wanted to launch a military operation against Lebanon. Maybe a slap on the wrist, which would have served no real purpose.
Ehud Barak is Obama’s man in Jerusalem. I’m sure he didn’t need much persuading not to take any military action. Add in that Barak frequently says one thing, backtracks, then does the opposite, he’s such a shifty opportunist, this may have been nothing but a bluff with no intention of following through.
I am sure it is not true. The days of bombing Lebanon without fear of retaliation are over until Israel can deploy an effective missile shield.
#2 Joe.
You assume (wrongly) that it will be Israel that starts a major war. I think this is not likely, Israel will be drawn into conflict by an incident initiated by Hezbollah that escalates. No matter what you read about missile shields, none are all that effective & will not be very effective in the near future. In fact, Israel is preparing the homefront for missile barrages although how well this is progressing, I cannot tell.
I just watched Bill Whittle discussing this on an Afterburner clip here on PJTV.
War does not depend on Israel – it depends on Teheran.
Here are some conspiracy theories for which I have absolutely no evidence as to why such a report would appear.
1. Some group wants to show that Israel is aggressive & that Lebanon needs defending.
2. Alternately, some group, like a Palestinian faction, wants to deliberately increase tension.
3. Anti-Hezbollah Lebanese want to show how close they came to war because of Hezbollah.
4. French and/or American diplomats want to show the Lebanese they can ”control” Israel.
5. Ehud Barak himself wants to increase his importance with foreign gov.’t.s – ”talk to me, I’m the reasonable one, not like Netanyahu & Lieberman” and this, in turn, increases his importance in the coalition.
Had LA persisted it might’ve come to that eventually, but if Clinton and Sarkozy were really trying stop Israel they were talking to the wrong side. And I am not saying it because Lebanese started it, but because Lebanese are the only ones who could stop it.
I do not believe that Israel wants to start a war at this time but
given its history, no one can be certain for sure. In any case,
a war would not have served anyone’s purpose and the fact that
Barack admitted that it was not planned says much about the whole
incident IMO. It was a skirmish that went wrong and was stopped
because no one wanted to escalate things.
Time is on our side. Several weapon systems and upgrades are yet to be delivered. If we ever really get rid of these, perhaps Israel can use them: http://www.boeing.com/Features/2010/08/bds_feat_b1_08_09_10.html
Put on F-110 engines, stealth paint and Iran would have even more problems……
Perhaps even speed of light weapons or some of David’s stones…..
CLinton? A fantasy from Uncle Jimbo at Blackfive on what he would have liked to see for Potus:
“KABUL, AFGHANISTAN—As members of the international press looked on, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rode on horseback through the streets of Kabul Monday, dragging the mutilated remains of Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Jalil through the dirt behind her. “Graaaaaggghh!” Clinton shouted as a frenzied crowd of supporters shot AK-47s into the air. Earlier in the day, Clinton had led a band of mercenaries through rugged mountain terrain to hunt down Jalil, whom the former senator eviscerated with a single stroke of her gleaming scimitar. U.S. soldiers marched alongside the triumphant, blood-soaked Clinton to the center of Kabul, where she ordered the Taliban leader’s gutted body be hung from the town’s tallest spire, where “all may behold it.” White House sources confirmed that upon returning to Washington, Secretary Clinton burst into the Oval Office, threw Jalil’s head down on the president’s desk, and let out a deafening war cry.”
#8 Maxtrue – Wow. No wonder Bill tries to keep his distance from her.
Its just a fantasy on what kind of heights Hillary would have to climb to single-handedly change the ground situation.
I bet Bill would get a thrill out of it though…..
couldn’t find the original article (granted, i didn’t look TOO hard). but based on ynet:
1) it seems a bit odd that israel would reveal its plans to… bernard kouchner. unless the point was to send the message to lebanon, i guess. but still!
2) if this story is true, thank GOD israel backed down. worst. idea. ever. if israel *enters* into a war against the LAF, rather than HA, then they really will have all of lebanon against them, and hezbollah will look like national heroes when they swoop in ten minutes later to save the army from total annihilation. that’s pretty much nasrallah’s dream scenario for the next round.
The Middle East dodges a bullet everyday.
f: that’s pretty much nasrallah’s dream scenario for the next round.
Yes, that would be the best way for the next war to kick off from Hezbollah’s point of view.
13. Michael J. Totten
f: that’s pretty much nasrallah’s dream scenario for the next round.
Yes, that would be the best way for the next war to kick off from Hezbollah’s point of view.
@Michael,
You are absolutely right but let me remind you that,during the last lebanon war, an Israeli frigate nearly sank because some elements within LAF gave a big hand to hizbulla by pinpointing the vessel location thru LAF radars !
Israel does not have any frigates in service. The Saar 5.0 Class corvettes are roughly one fourth the size of a modern frigate.
Although badly damaged the INS Hanit is back in service.
Does/did the LAF control the port of Beirut’s surface search radar in 2006?
The IDF cannot get at the LAF positions without over running the UN and HizbAllah positions. In some places the UN and the LAF are holding the same positions. In other places the LAF and HizbAllah are holding the same positions. In some places positions from all three can be found within a half a mile and plain sight of each other.
All of this really shouldn’t be all that surprising. Those same positions have been fought over dozens of times just in the last fifty years and uncountable times throughout the history of the region.
OLD
CASTLES,
R