The Real War Redux: Syria’s Only One Battlefield, Stupid
Thanks to Claire Berlinski, we discover that the Turks are all of a sudden worried that the Arab Spring–so enthusiastically embraced by Ankara–shows signs of transmuting into the Kurdish Spring. Which is, let us say in our understated way, bothersome to President Erdogan and his ambitious teammates. So it’s not surprising to see the Turks mobilizing the army along the Syrian (or should we now call it “the Kurdish”?) border. Nor that the Turks, at least in part to save some dignity in the face of public criticism of their failure to foresee the Kurdish actions, have unleashed their bombers at the usual PKK suspects. Meanwhile, lost in all the excitement over the battle for Aleppo, the steady flow of defectors from Assad’s ranks and files, and the extraordinary carnage throughout Syria, regular Syrian forces exchanged salvos with the Jordanian Army.
As usual, when the leaders-from-behind warn that there might be regional fallout from the Syrian “civil war,” it’s already well underway. Lots of people outside the corridors of power see it clearly. Take Fouad Ajami, for example, in a splendid essay in Tablet, in which he looks at the “proxy war” in Syria (which is to say, a regional war, as I have been arguing for some time), and its unlikely alliance of the Saudi royal family and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Or look at Benjamin Weinthal, who worries over at The Corner that Obama is handing an undeserved and certainly unwanted victory in Syria to the Iranians.
As you know, I’m reluctant to call a winner in this thing. I think I know that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has told his minions in Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards to go all out on behalf of Assad, and there have been some recent reports from the Free Syrian Army (aka The Opposition) of Iranian sharpshooters crossing into Syria. And today’s reports of Iranian “pilgrims” taken prisoner near Damascus suggests to my nose that these guys are very likely fighters, not the sort planning to pray at a mosque. I have the same sort of suspicion about the “trade talks” between Iran and Syria; I think they’re talking about mass murder, not commercial links. Given the way the spooky world works nowadays, with all electronic communications monitored by their enemies, you can be pretty sure that the really important conversations are face-to-face, not via email or cell phone.
According to my friends, Khamenei has told his killers that they have total license and virtually unlimited budgets to crush the Syrian opposition. Assad promised the Iranians that he’d have Damascus and Aleppo under control by the end of Ramadan, and then move on to other targets. The Iranians can’t have much confidence in such guarantees, and want their own guys on the ground. I rather suspect the Russians are in there as well. Can they win? I don’t know. But I do know that Assad is a Baathist version of the legend of Nero; he’s prepared to burn the whole country to the ground. And I also know that our policy of doing the absolute minimum to bring down Assad is a terrible method, both strategically and morally. It lessens the chances of winning (that is, bringing down Assad, which is the necessary albeit insufficient first move) and guarantees more horror, both for the fighters and the unfortunate civilians who were born in the wrong place.
Meanwhile, the Kurds have taken over a big chunk of Syria, maybe 10-15%, and they haven’t had to fight for it. The Turks hate it, Assad hates it, Khamenei hates it, and the Iraqi government can’t much like it either, since a moderately secure Syrian Kurdistan is the second building block in a big Kurdistan. At the moment, Assad isn’t about to go after the Kurds (bigger fish to fry), and the Turks, while they’re bombing the usual suspects along and across the Iraqi frontier, don’t want to rev up a big military operation in which they bash Kurds instead of Assad. That wouldn’t look good at all.
This video is Incredible! Talk about true heroes! I have only one quibble with your analysis Michael. While it is true that Assad is playing at being Nero, the real Nero of the piece is Obama who continues to fiddle about Baine Capital and how “taxing the rich” will somehow right the listing ship of state, while he watches the rest of the world burn.
One further note: thanks to state mandated gun-control, this Iranian crowd of patriots are consigned to combat state terrorism with the only weapons they can secure — rocks. There’s a lesson here.
Barry is doing a bit more than just watching.
The video clip is hair-rqising! I doubt that anyone, anywhere in the world, has ever seen footage of men hanged, twisting in the air before. Surely the outrage of the crowd is proof that Iran is close to open revolt. The Ayatollas will be even more relentless than Assad.
I continue to be puzzled by your opinion that the U.S. should provide direct aid to the rebels. Why? These rebellions are certainly responses to oppression, but democracy is not their objective. Both sides are bred-in-the-bone Theocrats. There never was an “Arab Spring.” There is only a crazy Arab Fever – primitive Jihad, made possible by oil wealth handed to them by the infidels they are dedicated to killing or reducing to serfdom. I have nothing but contempt for the Obama Adminstration, abandoning the whole matter to the feckless UN. They were criticized for giving support to the Libyan rebels, but the results are still out there. I do not believe that Romney can offer any more viable answers.
It is hard for me to believe that Iran, obviously close to rebellion, undermined by sanctions and frightened by the increasing evidence that their nuclear pr9gram is being destroyed by the fantastic worm that has followed Stuxnet, can divert much manpower to Assad, Hezbolla and Hamas. They do not wish to be diverted from their sacred objective, the imolation of Israel. Your superior reporting and analysis, backed by your sound sources, is informative and invaluable, but it is difficult conclude anything other than that we should stay out of this incredible mess. Consequential intervention would gain nothing for America or anyone else.
At the end of the “Cold war” it was widely said that the next big problem area would be the Middle East but it is doubtful that anyone visualized the scale and complexity.
Carry a big stick and stick by Israel, our greatest line of defense.
“evidence that their (Iranian) nuclear pr9gram is being destroyed by the fantastic worm that has followed Stuxnet”
Actually, the latest IAEA reporting (http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/ISIS_Analysis_IAEA_Report_25May2012.pdf) indicates that the Iranian nuclear program is making good progress, including increasing the quantity of enriched uranium on hand and (esp. important) the rate at which uranium is enriched.
You might want to check out the Wisconsin Project Iran Watch link supplied by Michael (above, p. 2) on this matter. This blog by a retired USN Intel officer also does good open analysis on the Iranian nuclear program (http://theoptimisticconservative.wordpress.com/2012/06/03/just-a-reminder-iran-still-closing-in-on-bomb/).
it looks like the war is not expanding fast and furious enough for our all powerful and inclusive dictoter. however, everybody with an army seems to be getting involved. the iranian people don’t have enough guns eh? somebody tell holder. mention to him there is drug $$ to be made.
i guess Israel will be keeping the kenyan heavily ‘in the loop’ on their military plans. everybody knows keeping secrets is what they do best, except for interceptin’. amerikan jews have probably already picked a new jewish capital, maybe n.y., or miami. can’t say they aren’t looking ahead in support.
what is best for the u.s. now is for the ble$$ed one to simply cancel the upcoming elections until peace is restored in the m.e. the g.a.o. has estimated that this will save gillion$ in taxpayer $$.
also, we surely need a new stimulus now to spur the obama economy on to even greater depths. besides, we need to get some more of those fast & furious shovel ready jobs working.
Ghastly video. It is something that a lot of people need to watch. I see a tremendous bloodbath in Iran’s future with no end in sight to the bloodshed to come. While the Iranian government is worried over the rebels in Syria, I believe a massacre is sitting on their doorstep. And IF they have to do it with rocks I believe they will try.
But the scary thing is that this has the smell of unintended consequence all over it. And by that I mean the Shia in Eastern Saudi rising as well. And still they piss down our leg and tell us it’s raining. Shut down oil production on both sides of the Gulf and we won’t be able to open up our production fast enough. And of course, the Chinese have just picked up the Canadian oil sands for a song. I think it’s time to batten down the hatches.
Michael – Good stuff and I heartily agree w/your identification of the Government of Iran as the main enemy.
On the other hand, if you want to criticize BHO for “leading from behind” in Syria I think you have to supply an alternate course of action. A concern that a lot of PJM readers have (and which I share somewhat) is that the Syrian opposition is heavily dominated by various radical Sunni/MB types. Thus if Assad falls, a greater problem might ultimately be produced.
It would be helpful if this essay had an update with the following:
1. Your assessment of the Syrian opposition w/respect to moderates vs. radicals
2. Your proposed goal for support to the opposition in Syria. Do you want to see a new “popular” regime in control of the entire country or a low-boil spoiler war w/various factions (Kurds in NE, Alawaites in NW, Sunni in the middle jockeying for power?
If the crowd was in fact able to save these men as the video seems to show, that means the executioners botched the job. Hanging is supposed to kill instantly by breaking the neck; instead, these men were apparently being choked to death. Was that supposed to be part of the punishment and part of the “lesson” to the populace? The point of crucifixion was terror, given that it was the slowest and most painful possible public death.
The Western system of hanging which employs a carefully designed noose combined with a drop platform is intended to cause instantaneous death, which as deaths go, is more humane. Videos of Saddam Hussein and the Nuremberg criminals speak to that. However the Islamic sadists in Iran don’t use that method. They basically put a rope around the poor soul’s neck and either string hiim/her up or put them on top of a bus or such structure and roll it out from under them. This causes a long and agonizing death by choking and the Mullahs of the Islamic Republic love it and get off on such spectacles. If they were not the political leaders of Iran they would be compadres of John Wayne Gacy and Ted Bundy.
… “proxy war” in Syria (which is to say, a regional war, as I have been arguing for some time)…
It’s a subregion that helps comprise Islam’s entire region, which is the planet itself:
So fight them until there is no more Fitnah (unbelieving Infidels) and all submit to Islam alone in the whole world.
- Allah talking goals in Holy Ko-Ran 8:39
But Syria exposes Islam’s only imperfection: the Sunni vs. Shia split. This internal conflict at its basis is over which brand best reflects how Allah envisioned world takeover. Other than the split between the two sects, Islam is a perfect machine for its job of total domination of everybody everywhere. While the split is a happy fact for us Infidels, the sad news is that when the two are confronted with common interest against the Infidel, history has shown time and again that the two sides will align to do battle.
Ledeen’s ideas are actually more dangerous to the United States than Obama at least in terms of foreign policy and domestically they poison the well against conservatives who are forever associated with the foolish wars started by the ilk of Ledeen.
It is no coincidence that Al Qaeda is a footnote in this article just as it is in Mr.Ledeen’s grand strategies, because Ledeen is incapable of thinking as the conflict of ideas and is unwise to the fact that Sunni Islamism is the ideology that’s developing the dynamism to fill the century-old power vacuum in the Islamic world. Maybe it is a result of his advanced age but he is, like many in the security establishment, completely married to the old Cold War concepts. His view of Iran is basically a replica of the conventional conservative view of the Soviet Union.
This concept is ironically also the reason we’re losing the war against Marxism, because it had this idea that you just have to bring an end to communist states to end the seed of communism. We won the Cold War, communism is gone. Hooray! In reality of course the seed of communism is well and alive and to no small degree in the United States themselves and in countries that are generally considered allies of the Unied States.
In a similar but even more sinister way Mr.Ledeen fails to see that the main threat in the Middle East and beyond is Pan-Sunni radicalism as advanced by the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda, the Saudis and Pakistan. Persian ambition and expansionism aren’t great news either, of course, but it’s primarily a regional issue. Syria’s Baathism is an ideology of the day before yesterday and has no pull anymore, power is the sole motivation behind Assad and if one left Assad to his own devices, Syria would be a global irrelevance unless of course you are planning a war against Iran backed by a Sunni coalition. Which is what this is really about, isn’t it?
The folly of that course is quite obvious and quite basic – you’re backing a global threat over a regional threat. The error of this strategy goes back to the Cold War even on this front. Would Al Qaeda exist in its current form if not for the American-backed crusade against Soviet-allied Middle Eastern states? Who knows, but it didn’t help for sure. At least back then the Soviets actually did pose a global threat, so there was *some* merit in backing Islamism over the Soviets. But now this is an outdated approach for sure. Does America really want to bring Islamism to power across the Islamic world? Do we count on their gratitude? 9/11 showed their gratitude for the help in Afghanistan, didn’t it?
Dr. Ledeen believes that the primary threat to the US comes from the current government of Iran and that it is the main driver of radical Islam. He has made a strong case for this in a series of articles and books going back decades. I may not agree entirely with his proposed courses of action, but he doesn’t negate the threat of radical Sunni Islamists.
You, on the other hand, make ad hominem arguments and advance the absurd claim that KSA, AQ and MB constitute some sort of broad front. Feel free to post links to your work so we can compare with the lifetime of analysis in this area by Dr. Ledeen.
Really? I think “the links” are easy enough to find. The ME has been a hotbed for constant & consistent discord for virtually all of recorded history. Our involvement in their affairs isn’t going to change much, if anything.
We need to become energy independent & pretty much all else it’s going to take to stay as far away from the ME as possible. While we’re at it we can work hard to see to it that Sharia law doesn’t overtake our own laws in an era where so many look upon our Constitution as a “living document.”
“The ME has been a hotbed for constant & consistent discord for virtually all of recorded history. Our involvement in their affairs isn’t going to change much, if anything”. – The same was said by U.S. Isolationists about Europe in 1939. “Recorded history” suggests it’s not a great strategy for a country to stick its head in the sand in the face of fascist aggressors.
MKH I trashed your comment because I don’t see why I should give you space to spread lies about me. try another blog please.
Of course, you could have just responded and outlined why you are right and I am wrong, instead of making it disappear like a political dissent in Iran.
I don’t reply to lies. It has nothing to do with politics or disagreements.
So you just delete the “lie” as defined by you, so nobody has the chance to see what was actually said and judge the veracity of the statement for themselves. What a delightfully Soviet approach and that on a website devoted to liberty!
What I said may have been a touch polemical but since I am not aware of any objective falsehood in that post, it would have been more helpful if you had pointed out what you perceived as untruths.
Dear Michael, real men in the west unfortunately arę very rare today! the American crowd wimps of the humiliating defeat-makers, who are the enemies of freedom and the enemies of the Greatness of America, of course are very adepts only in selling of lies and the trumped-up charges. while in reality they not dare to face the enemy. Maybe their unmanly nature lacks to some characteristics!?
MKH,
Do you realize that your rant here is just very incoherent and pretty moronic? What are you trying to say? The current Iranian regime is a global and a regional threat and as such must be crushed, removed and destroyed. The collapse of the current regime in Tehran will do for the middle-east what the collapse of the USSR did for the eastern Europe. So I’d suggest that you read more and broaden your view of history instead of spreading BS here and there. Btw, I smell rat in your posts.
Eh, the war will be another excuse to line the pockets of contractors, as was the case with iraq.
Same ol shiat, with the US playing two sides against each other and thinking there won’t be consequences down the road. I thought AlQueda was enemy #1, but we’re backing them in Syria.
And you have no horse in this race eh, Winston, a neocon from Iran?
In principle I don’t have a problem with the removal of the Iranian regime but there are limits in terms of what I would support to achieve such a thing. One of those things I would definitely never do is backing or assisting Sunni radicals or their political aspirations in any shape or form and that’s what supporters of the Syrian rebels do whether they like it or not.
MKH!
“The foolish wars” as you named it did not started by the ilk of Dr. Ledeen. As you know that American extern wars didn’t begin with a Republic rather began by Democrats. Democrats backed the Vietnamese war. Truman’s presidency was eventful as he commanded to bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki, starting with victory over Nazi. They also aspire to strengthen American military Institutions and to spread the culture of democracy on earth, and nevertheless, most of conservatives prefer Republicans over Democrats. However, at that time, it would have been better if Americans dropped another bomb on those whom tried to exterminate Jews and helped to build the Death Camps on their territories!!!
Dr. Ledeen and his GREAT ilk were also one of the important players in destruction of Evil Empire (Soviet Union). President Regan and his great administration who have brought Americans to the perfect victory in the cold war. It was a victory without shedding bloods, while today President Obama’s administration struggle to promoting of the values of communism on the land of Liberty…Dr. Ledeen has never backed any Islamic coalition neither sunni nor shiite. for a long time he tells you that major global threat comes from radical Islam. He also did not absolves the Wahhabi regime in Riyadh from sinister intent, he always tells that the Saudi regime is a major partner in the international terror network through its rabid support of the doctrine of terrorism (Sunni Islamist fundamentalism). You have to read “The War Against the Terror Masters”.
As for the relationship between tyrannical regimes and the Islamic terrorist groups! Yes, although some tell that Sunnis and Shiites CANNOT work together, but this in reality uncorrect. Most of tyrannical regimes in the Middle east from “Bagdad to Damascus and from Tehran to Riyadh” has associated with the sunni and shiite Islamist terrorist groups. The Sunni fundamentalists and pro-Shiites regime in Syria supported one another against US troops in Iraq. There is another evidence to be awfully good about the relationship between Sunni terrorist groups and Shia Iranian regime. Arafat was the first foreign leader was invited to Tehran after overthrow of the Shah. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were TRAINED in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat’s Fatah terrorist (Sunnis).
Both Syrians and Iranians are totally in cahoot. Both evil regimes backed terrorist groups, and Hezbollah was training insurgents to use explosives to do assaults and acts of war against the United States. They created the extremist radicals groups [Hizbollah " Shia Islamism" - Al-Mahdi army "Shiite" and the Sunni Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine that inspired by the 1979 Iranian Revolution, also receive support from Shiite's Hezbollah.]
Those evil regimes in addition to the puritanical Saudi’s regime are support most all the other terrorist groups [Hamas "Sunni", the largest backer of Hamas was Saudi Arabia through Islamic charity organizations and also funded by most of Gulf States including Iran as well as Syria and CAIR organization. A several hundred members of Hamas received military training in Iran and Syria - Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades "Sunni" - Al-Qaeda, the main source of its funding was Saudi Arabia - The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) is a Palestinian radical far-left militant and communist organisation. It's the second-largest branch of the groups forming the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) after Fateh. This organisation (PFLP) grew out of merging Arab Nationalist Movement (ANM) which founded in 1953 by Dr. George Habash, was a Palestinian Christian, where the group formed branches in several Arab states, including "Iraq, Libya, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait" and with two other Palestinian factions "Youth for Revenge and Palestine Liberation Front", together they formed the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Before 1967 war, the PFLP had trained some of its members of guerrillas in Egypt and Jordan, after the war the organization opened a training camp in Syria "the headquarters" and in Lebanon where had the financial and military backing from Syria. The PFLP sent its fighters to the Soviet Union for training them. In 1975 the organization received arms directly from Soviet sources.]
Let alone the relationship between Al-Qaeda and Saddam regime, and Al-Qaeda with other major terrorist groups that have created by Iran and Syria as [Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Al-Sader]. All working together. They all worked accurately to coordinate the Jihad against the United States that is a moment America went into Afghanistan. The cooperation increased between them even more when United States was to run-up to Iraqi freedom operation where most of Al-Qaeda leaders were welcomed by Saddam’s regime before Iraq freedom war. The question is How Al-Zarqawi and other of Al-Qaeda leaders had been entered into Iraq?! Or most likely they entered Iraq with the help of Iran and Syria or Saudi Arabia. But there is no doubt that Saddam himself helped them to enter Iraq, because during the rule of Saddam, the border between Iraq and its neighboring countries were very well-controlled by all regimes, even was very impossible for the bird to cross them!?
However, before the war, Saddam also harbored the terrorist Abu Abbas “the leader of the Achille Lauro Hijacking, in which an American citizen was shot in his head, and then dumped into the sea…ditto Saddam also harbored the Palestinian terror master Abu Nidal…Saddam has been paid the families of suicide bombers against Israeli Civilians…Add to that, eight years before 9/11, the World Trade Center was bombed by Islamists. One of them Abdul Rahman Yassin fled…Where? To Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, too!? Wars is the best solution to deal with such evil people. You crushed the Nazi, and deterred the rogue Japanese regime, and destroyed communism, while today you must act likewise against the terror masters of Islamists and against their puritanical ideology, whether they are regimes or organizations or extremist Islamist parties so that the world be happier and safer. This is your moral duty as a great nation. True peace comes only by war, so, making war to keep peace!!!
And who exactly is to take over from Assad?
Al-Quaeda?
How about first identifying who you root for before rooting? Okay?
Wrong question Tim. Not who but what. Assad represents a Monarchy. He is a despot, just as his father was. Some sort of consensual government is ALWAYS better then a despot.
It looks like the MB ( Muslim Brotherhood) will take over as happened in Egypt.
While not a good thang, it’s not a bad thang either. If the MB doesn’t take care of the citizens, they will be brought down as quickly as the despots are.
Please note that the citizens of Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, etc. will decide what exactly ‘taking care’ of means.
While other nations will be able to influence that decision, it is NOT theirs to make.
The best policy the USA can make is one of killing despots. Once a despot starts killing his citizens, declare open season on him. America had riots in LA that were as bad as the original riots in Syria. Berry didn’t send in the army to murder people, the local cops sent in the riot police. They met the rioters in fair and open combat. Rocks vs tear gas, pipes vs riot batons. Courage and discipline vs numbers. Same for Greece. Only the Greek rioters upgraded to molotov cocktails. Made up in the kitchen sink as the song says.
The right to petition the government (demonstrate) should be a human right. Despots that order the Army to murder people exercising that right need to be hunted down like mad dogs.
The USA has both the military power and morale obligation to hunt them down.
Make it a matter of public policy and the Despots will value their riot police more then murderous thugs.
Meanwhile, hunt Assad down. Open a web site where his daily location can be posted. Then we send a cruise missile or a B2 or a drone to visit him. Eventually we will get him. Remember he has to get lucky EVERY time. We only need to get lucky once.
The video of the hangings is from the earlier Iranian uprising. The victims were freed but were caught and executed
First of all this is not from an old uprising…it’s a video that’s maybe, IF even 3,4 months old but it has only very recently been released by the human rights groups INSIDE Iran.
We Iranian activists have a vast network and we deal with facts and documentation. SBH, if I were you I would be VERY careful about making claims you cannot back up, otherwise, we would have seen YOUR proof and documentation.
I’ve met Banafsheh at an Iran themed event. She struck me as knowledgeable and straight-up.
Sure you have. Just admit you’re paid to post this ridiculous propaganda and be done with it.
MKH is very clearly one of the Iranian regime’s paid agents. His speech patterns, his attempt at taking a pro-American stance and then twisting the argument on its ear to promote and justify the Iranian regime’s will, is clear. MKH’s type of people have been found and trained to troll the internet to attack anyone who their bosses in Tehran deem to be against them. To put it simply, they’re the Iranian regime’s attack dogs.
Mark, you too are clearly another one on the payroll of the Iranian regime because you are VERY obviously afraid of me and my veracity. If I were you, I would pack it in while you’re ahead because you have ZIP leg to stand on, Wonkollah!
Lol – dude, Banfesh is a public activist. One runs into people when one is involved in these matters. It’s not like meeting Queen Elizabeth II.
Regarding getting paid to post, if you have an offer please advise. My salary requirement is annualized to a minimum of USD 105,000 for a consultant- analyst position in an office environment in the US, but for you I’ll make it USD 125,000 … plus expenses.
“… I do know that Assad is a Baathist version of the legend of Nero”
Most historians who lived during Nero’s reign don’t even mention the ‘great fire’ or only marginally notes it since Rome had lots of fires (many wood houses close to each other and open flame cooking and heating). Tacitus, who, alone of contemporaries, mentions the Nero singing during the fire as an unsubstantiated rumor, notes that during and after the fire, Nero organized rescue efforts and subsequently funded restoration with his own funds (including planned avenues and terraces to make fire containment easier in the future).
yes, lord garth, that’s why i wrote about the “legend of Nero.”
The middle East is always one millisecond away from some kind of rapidly escalating crisis. This one is already spreading over the whole region, except Israel. Everything seems to be getting out of control, and a huge war may actually be getting under way. I don’t see how anyone could predict where this mounting chaos is leading.
As Michael Ledeen writes, there is a lot of unfortunate people being born in the wrong place.
The sole ally, to America, in the middle east are rational Arabs and Persians. And their billion is silent.
The world is witnessing the collapse of the faux peace prescribed by WWI and WWII. National boundaries, defined with no input from the locals, is being challenged. For 13 centuries, the challenge was with a sword, and could be ignored. But now some forces use modern aircraft and tanks, and several seek the bomb. Israel is a one bomb nation. The Jewish state will cease to exist if one goes off over Tel Aviv. The other game changer (since WWII) are the trillions of petrodollars which flowed into primitive sheikdoms, as Americans demanded more and more energy but our government regulated it, due to safety, to unsustainable costs. That wealth went to people who hate us, want us (and Jews) killed.
The only solution was epitomized at the Olympics. A lady, not very good at Judo, faced high level black belts, but her problem was her existence. The people back home wanted her dead, because of her unladylike conduct, and attire. Muslims must come to grips with basic axioms. Non Muslims should not be enslaved or murdered. They should be able to own their bibles and freely practice their religion. And the US should develop our energy fuels and cease sending the wealth of our grand kids to people who smile, but want us dead. They are soft billionaires who live in a sea of armed savages (with AK-47s) who want them dead.
Some body must change or a lot of blood will flow. The simmering pot, since WWII, is now boiling over, from the Atlantic to Burma (excuse me, Myanmar).
For now, they are calling them “the opposition.” It will have to suffice; that’s Islamists for you.
Oh what a disgrace if such a despicable and base lot as the Arabs, which worships a misogynist pedophile demon, should be allowed to enslave and massacre a people which has such a great history of civilization and culture and was made glorious with the Persian name! With what reproaches will the Lord overwhelm us if we do not aid those who are being brutalized and murdered because they fight for their freedom from the Arab quisling Mullahs! Let those who have been accustomed to wage private warfare against the Persians now go with them against the Arabs, and their quislings both in Iran and in the White House, in a Holy Crusade and end with total victory this war with the Mohammedan Arab destroyers of civilization and humanity which should have been begun long ago.
And, I, my dear Bessie, as an Iranian in Diaspora, kiss both of your cheeks while giving you the most loving bear hug. All your words speak to indisputable truths.
Syria is the beginning of the new ME. Let’s face it the current ME map is based solely on the western interest i.e, oil rather than ethnic, religious or geographical divisions. At the end of WWI the western powers drew the map by disregarding the people who lived in the region. Sooner rather than latter the bloodshed in Syria will spread to all over the region and is not going to be pretty.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mega-kurdish-state-is-being-founded-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=26441&NewsCatID=405
But that’s OK, the Middle East no longer controls world energy. The region can literally descend into hell, there are other, Western, sources of energy now.
Mr.Ledeen its a waste that you like the main streammedia during the 2009 continue to label Mosavvi and Karoubi as the “opposition” leaders.
The fact is that the Iranian people do not concider them as the opposition but a part of the regime who are fighting to gain power. It s merely a power struggle between old pals.
If you reffer to Mosavvi statement during the uprising he clearly states that he is not in favor of toppling the regime and in fact he values the islamis republic core values. Which in another word means he wants the players to change but not the game.
The people and their ideology is not what Iranians are struggling for, Iranians want a secular regime free from elements of the Islamic republic.
It might be in others interest to have a tamed Islamic republic with mosavi on top but its not in our( iranians) interest.
I do agree that there is revolution underway but the players that you portrait as opposition belong to the very same regime.
Lets be on the right side of the history when the unavoidable will happen.
Long Live Iran
Down with Islamic republic
Mani Aryamand
Marze Por Gohar Party
I don’t think it is possible to read Mousavi’s statements either during or after the 2009 campaign and believe that he wants to preserve the Islamic Republic.
Although in my gut I do believe that Moussavi, et al, may very well intend to keep an Islamic hue in a post Khamenei era, but he could serve as a catalyst for the creation of a completely secular form of governemt in Iran. There have been many such catalysts of radical change (not necessarily secular or deomcratic) in history such as Robespierre, Kerensky, Gorbachev and Shahpour Bakhtiar and many more.
Wouldn’t a Kurdish Republic be a Good Thing for the West? It would weaken Trukey, Iran, Syria and Iraq and be a Western outpost, if we supported it. It’s only natural but the West has always fallen for the “maintain stability” error.
Yes, Robert of Ottowa, that “stability” mantra is very…destabilizing.
I honestly don’t think Turkey is worried about any backlash from bombing the Kurds – they’re pretty much the one group that can get bombed and no one in the Western media even reports it, much less makes a big deal out of it.
If the Kurd state succeeds in Syria I believe it is in spite of the Muslim Brotherhood supported candidate for president of the USA, not because of him.
I believe it is miraculous that Syria is self destructing and taking many western enemies down with it.
I believe Obama has no “intention” of doing anything to destabilize the Iranian dictators that parade as religious; but in the end he will have no choice. It is important to note that I think the Muslim Brotherhood supported candidate will lose his reelection bid.
I have noted several times over the years on this blog my 1991 prediction, under the heading “Syrious Business”…( 1991 C me “long war”) we will have a nice Long War and sell lots of weapons…by June 2003, I wrote that the outcome in Iraq would be a broken up country: Shiite, Sunni, Kurd, and maybe Turkmen…
I appreciate Mr Ledeen, but I do not usually agree with his analysis of the data; but I try to respectfully state what I think is actually true. The USA policy toward Iraq and Iran is to minimize their oil exports ,to maintain high world oil prices so that those seventh century mentality people will be flush with cash for weapons purchases…the song remains the same.
I am interested in Henry Kissingers editorial posted today. He seems to say the USA had nothing to do with the Mubarak downfall, but then he seems to contradict that point? Any thoughts on that?
tks, Jay Getty. I’ll take appreciation. Agreement is not nearly so important.
“The Jewish state will cease to exist if one goes off over Tel Aviv”
BULLSH!T. A primitive atomic bomb such as the Mullahs are trying to build has a 50% kill radius of hundreds of meters.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
snipped
“The fireball reached nearly as high as the altitude of the release plane and was seen almost 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) from ground zero. The subsequent mushroom cloud was about 64 kilometres (40 mi) high (over seven times the height of Mount Everest), which meant that the cloud was above the stratosphere and well inside the mesosphere when it peaked. The base of the cloud was 40 kilometres (25 mi) wide. All buildings in the village of Severny (both wooden and brick), located 55 kilometres (34 mi) from ground zero within the Sukhoy Nos test range, were completely destroyed. In districts hundreds of kilometres from ground zero, wooden houses were destroyed, stone ones lost their roofs, windows and doors; and radio communications were interrupted for almost one hour. One participant in the test saw a bright flash through dark goggles and felt the effects of a thermal pulse even at a distance of 270 kilometres (170 mi). The heat from the explosion could have caused third-degree burns 100 km (62 mi) away from ground zero. ”
This was from the most powerful atomic bomb humans have ever exploded.
The idea of destroying Israel with one bomb is some sort of sick Arab fantasy.
It has nothing to do with reality. Besides Iran is decades away from building a Hydrogen bomb, which is what the “Tsar Bomba” was.
Mr. Ledeen: I am most appreciative of our comments. They are a beacon of light compared to what has been forthcoming from the current administration in Washington. I look for your coments each time I check PJMedia. Please keep your comments coming. They are consistent with what what is happening insofar as Middle East matters are concerned. If your comments were not, Assad would have prevailed by now.
not to worry, PaulM, blogging is a compulsive neurosis, so it’s very likely to continue.
If someone tells me that a given foreign policy course–any course–with respect to Syria will lead to disaster, he has my sympathy, as the struggle appears to be a fight among malefactors. So kudos to all the Cassandras making comments here. The one thing that I would point out is that the alliance among Iran, Syria, and Lebanese Hezbollah, while menacing, is also fragile enough break down if Syria comes apart. And we are beginning to see signs of just that fragmentation in a story recently linked by Michael Totten–
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/hezbollah-trouble
So while a Syrian collapse may leave an equal number of malicious forces in the region, it is likely that they will be in disarray, and less potent.
The US presumes other nations are like us. For example, Joe Stalin and the Nomenklatura were not just a lot of Asian New Dealers, despite the White House view. The Dalstroy was not just like TVA.
Our thinking in foreign policy rests on wrong assumptions and deductive reasoning. For example, the Oceans were like totally defending America for every year through 1491. After that, the US was defended by the US Navy, backed up by the Royal Navy, and the firearms freedom which allowed Proficient rifle shooters to be scattered about, ready to be called up to deal with invasion (President Washington was Proficient, hence his talk about not needing foreign entanglements).
I have yet to find anyone who knows the specific reason Pearl Harbor was attacked. It was the key dispute which President Roosevelt mentioned in his first note to Japan.
Hollywood Westerns show cowboys having an efficient way of dealing with foreign threats. Cowboy enters the saloon, heads to the poker table, sits, and for the benefit of the unknown number of thugs present, puts his six-gun on the table.
Superficial review of US strength by Japan and Germany led to gross and fatal underestimates. FDR did not put the six-gun on the table. The Axis powers’ assessment was magnificently superficial. We did not take the trouble to point out that the soft and floppy US could turn itself into a monster of military power in a short period of time. We did that in WWI, the record of it was available, but no one bothered to read through the boring pages.
We could inform the players that we are not going to interfere with Syria; however, no one must harm the Dhimmmi. If they laugh, inform them that enhanced weapons to use on Later Verse Enthusiasts will be used. We could eventually say we cannot describe it, but it has something to do with Homeopathic Essence of Swine, USP. We could spray the enclave where all the Nomenklatura of mullahs and generals lives in Tehran with a fried bacon odor if they rise to world-class scoffing.
We could mention that any Later Verse Enthusiasts so unwise as to detonate a nuke somewhere would result in the candy dish effect being related to some number of Holy Cities.
Would any of this be the twin of Musim fabulist bluster, or not? The West doesn’t do bluster, prefering to do a promise of a reasonable response and then in the event to do less or nothing.
We should declare war on Hisballah, Hamas, and every group of Later Verse Enthusiasts that ever surfaced.
Michael, one of the electives I took in college had “A quick and dirty guide to war” as one of the text books.
It gave the various scenarios, and percentages of likelihood of they coming to pass.
I see the torch was passed to you, and you hold it up well.
Thanks, and keep up the good work.
FYI – It’s been almost a year since this ran: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/lawrence-solomon-its-in-our-interest-to-break-syria-into-pieces/
Not much dust has accumulated on this sketch, has it?
Moving Toward War in Syria Tuesday, August 07, 2012 – by Ron Paul
http://www.thedailybell.com/4159/Ron-Paul-Moving-Toward-War-in-Syria
You want us to get involved and ensure Assad’s downfall. What about the Christians of Syria, do they not matter to you? Just like in Iraq, just like in Egypt and just like in Libya, they will be tormented and their societies will be extinguished by the Muslims who rise from the ashes to lead the new Syria. Will Obama and Romney (if he wins) continue to allow Muslims to immigrate to this country and create their concentrations in and around our cities? Is Islam or the enemy or not? Just answer that question without qualifications. Islam is built from the ground up as a war machine. That is its whole purpose, or have you not paid attention to Islam’s sunna, it’s history? Apparently not, or you deceive yourself. A cult (Islam is not a religion to me) that is obsessed with warring and conquest of infidels will naturally turn on itself when infidels are not readily handy. Infidels should be happy that Muslims are killing Muslims. I sure am. That way they have less time to be plotting and executing the infidel’s demise.
The first rule of war is know your enemy and I know Islam and Islam is my enemy.
The contents of the bus would indicate that Iran’s elite army has passed its retire-by date.
The majority of Syrian regime opponents are foreign. The FSA has AQ connections and directly works with AQ groups, AQIM, LIFG etc. Saudis, Qataris, Belgians, UKites, Egyptians, Libyans, Iraqis, Pakis, Afghanis, Turks, Algerians (probably GIA), Jordanians and Wahhabi Salafistas have been recorded as amongst the killed and captured. Of course Blackwater (xe) and some other “killers for hire” outfit are right there training more meat for Syria’s mincer. As are UK services, French DGSE and CIA advisors, the UK reportedly turfing out trained groups 50 heads at a time. The CIA is directing the flow of weapons and cash inside Turkey from Saudi, Qatar, Turkey, etc to whoever they wish. NASTO (N. American State Terrorism Operations aka NATO is presiding over operations from Turkey@s Iskenderum and presumably the flow of AQ trained terrorists from Derna in Libya and elsewhere, notably Iraq.
I would hardly call Michael highly informed appearing to have gained much of his insight from such as NYT, WaPo, Reuters and other propaganda outlets. However my thanks to him for the heads up on Erdogan’s Kurdish dilemma, that looks accurate.
Syria, like Libya before the massive input of FUKUS regular forces and hugely destructive non stop NASTO bombardment (over 10000 sorties) often using DU, is winning.
And no I’m not an Assad fan. Equally I’m not a fan of the bilderberg puppets you call a gov’t stirring up sh*t in sovereign secular, peaceful regimes then destroying them for profit and control reasons.
Yeah, I get all my info from the NYT and WaPo. Hahaaaaaaaaaaa
“The traditional U.S. response—sailing a naval battlegroup into the dangerously close confines of the Strait of Hormuz—places a major U.S. strategic asset at risk but does not deter Iran. Counterintuitively and perversely, it actually supports Iran’s adaptive response to overwhelming conventional force. Iran refuses direct engagement, opting instead to sidestep the brandished knockout punch and use terrorism as a kidney punch in the back to attack the United States and its allies.
The United States instead can focus on low-cost, low-risk initiatives to alter the balance of power from the current regime—which uses terrorism and seeks nuclear weapons—to its internal competitors, including the Green Movement, that do not threaten the West.”
Read about the 6 communications electronics initiatives at
http://www.afcea.org/signal/articles/templates/Signal_Article_Template.asp?articleid=3031&zoneid=357
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