THE NEW SPACE RACE: Actually, we are going to tell you the odds of recovering New Glenn’s second launch.
Blue Origin has a lot riding on this booster, named “Never Tell Me The Odds,” which it will seek to recover and reuse. Despite the name of the booster, the company is quietly confident that it will successfully land the first stage on a drone ship named Jacklyn. Internally, engineers at Blue Origin believe there is about a 75 percent chance of success.
From the outside, that estimate seems on the high side of things. During the rocket’s first flight in January, the first stage was lost after successfully boosting its payload to orbit. Blue Origin has provided few details about the propulsion issues that led to the loss of the first stage, which never got close to the drone ship. But it’s clear that the company was unable to test many of the key aspects of controlling the rocket’s flight through the atmosphere and stabilizing itself upon touchdown. A lot of software has to go right to nail the delicate landing dance.
The only comparison available is SpaceX, with its Falcon 9 rocket. The company made its first attempt at a powered descent of the Falcon 9 into the ocean during its sixth launch in September 2013. On the vehicle’s ninth flight, it successfully made a controlled ocean landing. SpaceX made its first drone ship landing attempt in January 2015, a failure. Finally, on the vehicle’s 20th launch, SpaceX successfully put the Falcon 9 down on land, with the first successful drone ship landing following on the 23rd flight in April 2016.
SpaceX did not attempt to land every one of these 23 flights, but the company certainly experienced a number of failures as it worked to safely bring back an orbital rocket onto a small platform out at sea. Blue Origin’s engineers, some of whom worked at SpaceX at the time, have the benefit of those learnings. But it is still a very, very difficult thing to do on the second flight of a new rocket. The odds aren’t 3,720-to-1, but they’re probably not 75 percent, either.
Godspeed — and stick the landing.