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Ed Driscoll

The Perfect Storm: Sandy as the Ultimate October Surprise

November 8th, 2012 - 1:15 pm

A couple of posts by Ace of Spades should be bring a modicum of comfort to GOP voters:

If, as we are all now saying, “the polls were right,” then they were right pre-Sandy, too. If they weren’t right pre-Sandy, why is the left covering Nate Sliver with laurels? His entire thesis was “the polls are right,” and not just at the end, but the whole way through.

Datum: Bush was ahead in polls by 3 points going into the 2000 election. Then the DUI story broke on the weekend before the election. He wound up losing the popular vote by around 0.5%. Late breaking news which had a greatly disproportionate impact on the vote. Its importance was not due to its actual importance — its importance was due solely to its recency.

What if the whole election was swung by a random Black Swan event which had nothing to do with anything that was being debated throughout the past two years?

I think people are averse to crediting so much to chance and chaos.

And then there’s this:

The winning party talks up a realignment that will permanently keep them in power. The losing party is despondent at that notion– they sense it’s true. How can we beat anyone, the losing party things, if we cannot beat this unqualified, dishonest, smug, man who has set the country on a suicide mission which will destroy it?

Why can’t the country see through the Imperial Presidency of this corrupt corporate cronyist? What’s wrong with America? What’s wrong with us?

The losing party thinks they’ll never win an election again.

And then…

I won’t spoil the surprise if you haven’t read it yet.

Update: Allahpundit isn’t so sure about how many Sandy intervened in the election.

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