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Syria’s Dictatorship Anniversary: Sympathy (?) for the Two Devils

December 24th, 2013 - 4:21 pm

Incidentally, Syria’s Ba’th dictatorship is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year. The best Syrian analyst I can think of, a very honest guy, is Ammar Abdulhamid. I recently read an article he wrote and was struck by how sad the situation in Syria is. He wrote:

Re-legitimating the Assad regime today, after all it had done, will green light genocidal ventures elsewhere in the world. If world leaders are standing helpless in the face of one genocide today, what will they, I wonder, when they are faced with a dozen? The world witnessed similar conditions during the Cold War for sure, but this is supposed to be the post-Cold War Era, the Era of Never Again and R2P, an era where social media is creating deep links between average citizens and realities on the ground everywhere in the world. Allowing for a return of Cold-War-like realities and developments, or, to be more specific, allowing for the start of Cold War II, is a major step backward. It’s a major setback, a major failure, and it will come with a hefty price tag for all.

In other words, he is predicting terrible continued bloodshed in Syria, and the even more depressing probability of more genocide, since the international community is powerless to help. The likelihood is that Syria will become an Iranian colony.

Yet there is a big hole in Abdulhamid’s analysis; that of the fate of moderate Syrians, because for a moderate Syrian, the flip of the coin leads to an unavoidable outcome; heads they lose, tails they lose.

If the regime side wins, there will be a massacre of Sunni Muslims. If the Syrian rebels win, there will be a massacre of Alawites and Christians. Either way, there will be mass murder. This is horrible.

Let me make it plain. There will be mass murder, even genocide in Syria. There is no escape; one group will most certainly be at the mercy of another. Syrian rebels have made it clear they will enforce Shari’a.

I was in Syria once, and the regime soldiers ushered me out politely. In fact, I was riding in a taxi there at the moment Richard Nixon resigned. I remember a moderate Syrian Politician asking me, “Will I see democracy in Syria during my lifetime?”

I stood with my mouth agape, unable to reply. Seeing my jaw drop, he shrugged sadly and said, “Oh well, maybe in my children’s lifetime.”

Many of the Syrian rebels have in fact defected to al-Qa’ida. So much for the “moderates” that the American taxpayers support and arm.

On the other side of the picture, you have not just Russia, but also Iran and Hizballah protecting the Asad regime.

Roughly 40% of the Syrian territory is held by the regime; approximately 40% by the rebels; and about 20% by the Kurds. An estimated 70% of the population is controlled by the regime.

So dangerous and serious is the situation that I must in good conscience make a statement: The United States and the West are working on a solution that will probably end up being a genocidal situation in Syria. Ammar is correct, but either side winning the war will lead to more bloodshed.

Tens of thousands of children have been killed, only the prelude to tens of thousands more. An estimated 200,000 people have been killed thus far.

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The article you cite on Syrian casualties puts the number at 113,735, not 200,000 - at least yet. Likewise the Syrian Network for Human Rights puts the toll at 101,513 in their November report according to the iamsyria.org. Whatever the current actual death count the article you cite mainly makes the point that the percentage of children killed is unusually high (10%) which has serious demographic implications. In any case I have long followed Iraqbodycount.org which puts the people killed in Iraq since the 2003 invasion at 116.000 to 138,000. Both statistical sources seem to be from the same general source: everycasuality.org and a related organization called the oxford group. What jumps out at me is not just the high percentage of children, but that the Syrian numbers after 2 and a half years are very close to equalling the Iraqi figures over ten years. And the figures may be comparable because a reasonable similar methodology requiring a fairly high standard of evidence of casualties is being used by these connected organizations. With Turkey's Islamists feuding, sectarian violence increasing in Pakistan, it is hard to see anyone but Iran becoming the hegemonic Islamic power in the region.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Incidentally, Syria’s Ba’th dictatorship is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year. The best Syrian analyst I can think of, a very honest guy, is Ammar Abdulhamid."

Honest guys don't lie about genocide.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
Assad is not conducting a genocide in Syria. However a lot of the muslims fighting him would like to genocide the Christians in Syria.
47 weeks ago
47 weeks ago Link To Comment
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