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Rubin Reports

Egypt: A Teachable Moment in World History

July 5th, 2013 - 2:38 pm

Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, July 4, 2013

What has just happened in Egypt  is an amazing story and its meaning for the region is earthshaking. The apparent tidal wave of advance for revolutionary Islamism has been flicked aside by the courage of millions of Egyptians, but — let’s remember — it would have been futile if the army had not taken their side. And it is worth remembering that on this spot 150 years ago to the day, another such great battle ended in the preservation of the United States.

There are many lessons in this, and here is a brief discussion. A cautionary note: We are far from out of the woods yet.

But before discussing that, it is positively important to take some I-told-you-so’s. I-told-you-so’s are valuable because they tell you whom to listen to and whom not to heed. They also reveal the real forces at work so that in the future we can interpret things correctly. Understanding history and political events is not some matter of taking things in a disconnected way, as if things just happen. We must employ these discoveries to develop a coherent analysis. Or, to put it in one sentence: why do things happen?

Let me mention, however, two important points which better be understood if Western civilization is to survive and flourish, and other societies are to advance. What has just happened in Egypt is truly a teachable moment and that should not be wasted by being lost in details.

First, not everything that exists in the imagination can be achieved. Wishful thinking is no guide to policy. Just because you desire something does not mean it will or can be achieved. The whole purpose of human logic is to estimate the odds and chances.

A three-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict in which everyone lives in peace and harmony is desirable. It isn’t going to be achieved, at least for many decades. A democratic Middle East in which moderation rules over the region isn’t going to happen for a long time.

Karl Marx referred to revolutionaries as “heaven-stormers,” but gravity and human nature do not concede such possibilities of instant transformation. It doesn’t end well, as the Communist, fascist, Arab nationalist, and Third World radicalism stories show over and over.

The grasp cannot exceed the reach. Social conditions, history, ideas, and experiences set limits and directions in human history. That doesn’t mean nothing good can happen, but it is going to happen according to a serious estimate of reality. Of course, there are also accidents and places where things can turn out differently on the decision made by an individual.

Fundamental transformation is not an easy game.

There are certain times that are unique, of course, like, as some sources say, the losing of a horseshoe nail which unhorsed King Richard III. This was a turning point in English history at the Battle of Bosworth Field on August 22,1485. The fact that an arrow hit King Harold II of England in the eye at the Battle of Hastings on October 14, 1066, meant that the fate of England was altered from a Germanic to a French/Latin civilization.

The existence of great leaders — or terrible ones — can change the course of events, too. But why does a given leader, idea, or movement appeal to large numbers of people at one time?

Second, though, within limits change of a positive nature is possible. That’s why one has to experiment and try. On these decisions and deeds many lives depend. The decision of American colonists to take on the strongest power in the world, Britain, in 1776 and that of Israeli leaders to declare independence in 1948 were risky ventures. Yet those involved realized that the attempt was not beyond the possibility of success.

But, again, you have to understand, with unflinching realism, the problems and the risks involved. This judgment is not a matter of ideology, of set and predetermined and unwavering blind belief. At a certain point, ideology gets in the way.

This is especially important for those who would make — or prevent — social change. Mao Zedong called this “the concrete analysis of concrete conditions.”

When the mass media, educational system, opinion-makers, or decision-makers are paralyzed by ideology—of the dos and don’ts of political correctness (which means the systematic enthronement of “well-intentioned” lies) — the self-imposed blinkers will likely take the carriage off the cliff.

That happened to an incredible extent in Western analysis of Egypt. Among these factors were wishful thinking, the romance of extremism, and the refusal to deal with unpleasant facts.

No, not all societies are alike. It should be self-evident that all men and women are created equal and that they are endowed by their Creator with certain rights. But it doesn’t mean that they think of these rights in the same way or define their goals in the same way. If you are going to believe in the cult of diversity, remember that some of the diverse people think that it would be wonderful to kill you, oppress you, and use power to control your life.

Ideally, it is true that to secure these rights, governments were instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.  But that’s not the way it often works out. In fact, more often than not it isn’t the way that things work out.

Consequently, governments are also instituted to protect their citizens against those of a different opinion. Those governments should apply realpolitik as their duty.

Once the situation is clear — after the failure of appeasement of Germany in 1939, the evidence that the USSR was aggressive in 1946, the failure of the peace process and the launching of the Second Intifada war of terrorism in 2000, or the war of radical Islamism against the West on September 11, 2001 — it is the duty of governments and public understanding to take heed of those facts.

It does not matter in the least how unpleasant these facts are or how contrary they may be to our prejudices or conventional wisdom or desires. Attention must be paid.

And, sorry, but if that means that popular totalitarian movements don’t get to enjoy the fruits of their election or military victories so that they can better wipe you out, then so be it. So that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from this earth. And one day, others can enjoy those benefits when conditions are ripe.

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Top Rated Comments   
The Egyptian coup leaves the United States as the most powerful country in the world controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (32)
All Comments   (32)
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After spending all of his Capital to get Morsi in and now he is out, what is Obama to do??
The MB is slowly coming apart at the seams in Egypt and hopefully the same thing will happen in Libya, Tunisia and Syria, not to mention Turkey. Dictatorships never stay in power long for people love freedom and crave it naturally, even Muslims..... who are steeped in the slavery mentality.
Now Obama is back to square one in Egypt and nothing is certain for the future......
Morsi was a unelected tyrant Just Like Obama.....
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
just as Cindy implied I am amazed that some one able to get paid $8051 in 4 weeks on the computer. did you see this link... http://www.Can99.com
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Point of information:
Harry Truman was elected President in 1952.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
In the light of mastery of subject, efficiency in fact-finding I can settle on the reliable analysis of Prof Barry. May our Almighty grant you daily the grace to cater the world with the truth to which HE consistently guide you. With all good success, and because it is in HIS NAME.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Dear Barry Rubin, this article is yours is just too preachy but we cannot pitch no-hitters every game or have home runs everytime at bat. I want you to know as an avid reader of yours, I appreciate your dedication, your work, and have a gift for you-

http://vimeo.com/34495242#comment
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Greetings:

A bit off topic perhaps, but when I first can across the "teachable moment" concept it seemed to refer to a moment when the student was desirous of some education a mentor could provide. Now it seems to me that the concept has morphed into an occasion when the mentor comes across information he thinks his students should have. The power relationship seems to have shifted, oh, abut 180 degrees.

A subtle change perhaps, and certainly a bit of a peeve of mine, but so goes our language these days.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Someday government's "fair share" will be everything.

No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.
~Mark Twain (1866)

The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist leaves the skin.
~Mark Twain

The government is like a baby's alimentary canal, with a happy appetite at one end and no responsibility at the other.
~Ronald Reagan
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Sorry, wrong place for this comment.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment

Egypt: A Teachable Moment in World History by Barry Rubin
Indeed a teachable moment and check out this ‘Rubinism’ on political correctness.
“The dos and don’ts of political correctness (which means the systematic enthronement of “well-intentioned” lies.”
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Qatar expelling Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and the thoroughly vile Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi is an interesting development.

Likely purely pragmatic moves (if even true) but welcome.

http://frontpagemag.com/2013/dgreenfield/new-qatari-emir-dumps-muslim-brotherhood-banishes-qaradawi-hamas/
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Morsi steals election with the Muslim Brotherhood, Barry is elated and sends even more aid. Egyptians, with the aid of the military, overthrow the budding dictator and Barry threatens to cut off aid. Our president is a traitor and tool of the caliphate. Impeach, convict and execute him as soon as possible.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
Something about a US law requiring aid cut-off in the event of a coup d'état.

Which can be overridden by Presidential order. (It's all rock 'n roll)

You can imagine that Obama is disheartened that his Brotherhood buddy Morsi has been deposed but can't cry in public about that.
41 weeks ago
41 weeks ago Link To Comment
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