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Rubin Reports

The West’s New Syrian War

June 11th, 2013 - 3:18 pm

One day people will ask how the United States and several European countries became involved in mass killings, genocide, corruption, arms smuggling, and the creation of another anti-Western and regionally destabilizing government. Even if a single Western soldier is never sent, the West is on the verge of serious intervention in Syria. The choices are unpalatable and decisions are very tough to make, but it appears to be still another in a long history of Western leaps in the dark, not based on a real consideration of the consequences.

At least people should be more aware of the dangers. As I titled a previous book on Iran (Paved with Good Intentions), the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. People are dying and suffering in Syria. That’s true. But will this make more people or fewer people die and suffer?

So now we are seeing the trial balloons rise. As the Bashar al-Assad regime proves to be holding on—but not recapturing the country or winning the war—the West is panicked into sending aid to the rebels.  In fact, the government is merely holding the northwest area (where the ruling Alawite group lives), the region along the Lebanese border (with Hizballah’s help), Damascus (where the best troops are based and there is a favorable strategic situation in the army holding the high ground), and part of Aleppo. It seems that U.S. decisionmakers are panicking over these relatively small gains. If the Syrian army plus Hizballah tries to advance too far, it will stretch its resources then and face a successful rebel counteroffensive.

Understandably, the opposition is demanding arms. If the opposition did not consist mostly of al-Qaeda, the Salafists, and the Muslim Brotherhood, that would be a good idea perhaps. But since the opposition is overwhelmingly radical—even the official “moderate” opposition politicians are mostly Muslim Brotherhood—this is a tragedy in which the West does not have a great incentive to say “yes.”

President Barack Obama is said to be close to sending weapons to carefully chosen rebel units who are moderates. Now, pay close attention here. The Western options for giving assistance are:

The Syrian Islamic Liberation Front. This is Muslim Brotherhood type people including, most importantly, the Farouk Brigades from the Homs area and Aleppo’s Tawhid Brigade. Around 50-60,000 fighters in total who are autonomous.

Do you want to give arms to them? Weapons that might soon end up in the hands of (other) terrorists? Weapons to be turned against not only Israel, but Jordan, Saudi Arabia, U.S. diplomats, and who knows who else?

Or perhaps you like the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF), an alliance of more hardline Islamist forces, including Ahrar al-Sham from the north.  Ahrar al-Sham is probably around 15,000 fighters; the SIF as a whole probably around 25,000.   These people are Salafists, meaning that the Brotherhood is too moderate for them. They are the kind of people who attack churches in Egypt, who want to wage jihad alongside Hamas, and so on.

Do you want to arm them so they can establish another Sharia state?

How about Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda franchise with around 6,000 fighters and reportedly the fastest growing militia?

Want to give guns to those who committed the September 11, 2001, attacks and the Benghazi attack?

Of course not! You want the Free Syrian Army (FSA), headed by the untested General Salim Idris, whom Senator John McCain met with. Now those are moderates who, after all, are just led by former officers in the repressive, historically anti-American Syrian army. And the FSA is just not a serious factor in military terms.  The West will say it supports the FSA; the FSA will be pushed aside by an Islamist regime if it wins, its Western-supplied weapons seized even during the course of the war. Moderates–even if we define radical Arab nationalists as moderates–don’t have the troops on the ground. It’s too late to organize and train a moderate force now. That should have been done two years ago.

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All Comments   (8)
All Comments   (8)
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The Syrian killing spree didn't happen out of thin air, nor did all the regional explosions which happened under Obama's ring of fire. They had quite a few "hidden hands" and this is not conspiracy talk. More to the point, the Pyromaniac-in-Chief must be exposed for this and that - http://adinakutnicki.com/2013/05/30/war-drums-blaring-the-commander-in-chief-is-awol-russia-in-charge-irans-axis-ascendant-israel-left-dangling-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/

The next few weeks are crucial in my neck of the woods...my northern border is on fire!!


Adina kutnicki, Israel http://adinakutnicki.com/about/
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
This is the logical extension of sending weapons to the Mexican Mafia. Now our overseers want to send weapons to Muslim terrorists. We're nuts.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
"This is a very dangerous, risky, and likely failed policy that is being set in motion here." Yep, yet another potential feather in Obama's cap. (With Obama I'm assuming any failure is deliberate -- the bigger the disaster, the more Syrians who'll land in America. Just another Obama goal to "transform America.")
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
Grim analysis indeed with the added possibility of extending the suicidal immigration policy of Europe to the US. Having post colonial academics actually running major Western counties is a thoroughgoing disaster.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
Why is it that the oil rich states, which are in demand of cheap labor are never willing to take in fellow arab refugees? They are such hypocrites.

Susan Rice and Samantha Power have more than humanitarian motives for wanting the U.S. to take in hundreds of thousands of Arab, Muslim refugees. Of course they will eventually become citizens. And eventually their votes can become important enough to erode domestic support for Israel.

Once Arabs and Muslims become U.S. citizens, they seem to shed their previous national identities and take on the identity of Arab-American and Muslim-American. The only exception, of course, is "Palestinian-American." This designation survives emigration into any country. And not only does it not fade, it enlarges itself in each succeeding generation.
Samantha Power and Susan Rice will use every and any tactic to undermine support for Israel.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
A truly ugly choice, but I could state a preference. I would rather deal with the al-Qaida terrorists than a confederation of Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Taking Hezbollah's supply route away from them and killing a large number of them and denying Russia its port on the Mediterranean Sea would be preferable.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
I'd rather Assad won. A corrupt bloodthirsty fascist dictator is better than than a corrupt bloodthirsty Islamic Republic looking destabilize adjacent countries.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
Oh my, displaced people to be resettled in the US ... it should be or, it sounds good, then, unfavorable in the long run. When that happens, the US will evolve into a new ... actually, though the war is an impetus to disperse populations, it brings with it an unimaginable emergence of a US-Islamic culture ? That's for certain ! And ( we can thank Susan Rice and Party ), if that's the possible case, our kind of peace will really take on an overhaul in meaning and definition. Let's brace ourselves.
45 weeks ago
45 weeks ago Link To Comment
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