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Rubin Reports

When Terrorists Fall Out, You Know Jihad Is Doomed

April 23rd, 2013 - 2:51 pm

One of the reasons why the Middle East situation is less fearsome than it might seem is that the radicals and terrorists are not united at all, but battle among themselves for tactical, doctrinal, ethnic, and ambition-related reasons.

For example: despite their daily bloodthirsty howls for Israel’s destruction, these three groups are otherwise at odds:

– The Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt wants to revolutionize the Middle East, but is putting the priority on entrenching its power in Egypt itself, including by dealing with economic and internal security problems. One of its difficulties is a terrorist insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula. While this includes cross-border attacks on Israel, it also involves assaults on Egyptian soldiers, police stations, and other facilities.

– The Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip wants to revolutionize the Middle East, and puts a high priority on genocide against Israel. But it has to balance backing Salafist and even al-Qaeda groups with controlling the timing of its wars on Israel.

– The Salafist groups in the Gaza Strip and Sinai want to attack and wipe out Israel, but some of them also want to overthrow the Brotherhood and to institute an even more extremist regime in Egypt.

So: what happens when Palestinian Salafist groups, including supporters of al-Qaeda, want to attack Israel through Egyptian territory or to work with Egyptian Salafist groups to attack Egyptian soldiers or policemen?

Answer: Egypt doesn’t like it.

And Egypt blames Hamas: Why are you helping these people? Or why aren’t you suppressing them? We will let people attack Israel from our territory if and when we want to do so. And, yes, our intelligence does have evidence you are helping these anti-Egyptian forces. For example, we saw that you weren’t interfering with the smuggling of material to make phony Egyptian army uniforms. Salafists can use these to attack Israel disguised as Egyptian soldiers, thus getting us into a shooting confrontation with Israel while we are trying to borrow money and to keep the Americans happy. Or they can even pretend to be our men and kill Egyptians. So why should we help you when you are helping those who attack us?

The latest event was the firing of two rockets from Egyptian territory at Eilat on April 17. A global jihad-affiliated network in the Gaza Strip calling itself the Shura Council of the Jihad Fighters of the Environs of Jerusalem claimed responsibility.  Their claimed motive was interesting: to protest two Palestinians killed in Tulkarm in a violent confrontation with Israeli security forces.

In other words, Palestinian Islamists are carrying out their war with Israel using Egyptian territory without permission.

The group’s statement also made the remarkable demand that “the sane members of Hamas” pressure the Hamas government in Gaza to stop trying to arrest its men.

So this is the chain of events:

Hamas must decide whether to allow al-Qaeda affiliated or similar groups to attack Israel from Egyptian soil. Even if it doesn’t mind their attacking Israel from Gaza, it needs to keep the Egyptians happy so that the Egypt-Gaza border is kept open for goods, including weapons.

But some Hamas men want instant all-out jihad against Israel.

Hamas must also decide whether to restrain these same groups from waging an Islamist revolution against the Islamist regime in Cairo. Again, perhaps some Hamas gunmen or officials think the Muslim Brotherhood isn’t going fast enough to turn Egypt into a Sharia state. That’s hard to believe, though. Perhaps more likely these Hamas officials are incompetent, bribed, or blackmailed.

At any rate, even though it was completely avoidable, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood regime is very angry at the Hamas Muslim Brotherhood regime. The relationship has been damaged and the Egyptians’ willingness to back up Hamas has been reduced.

Moreover, Israel has given Egypt permission — required under the peace treaty — to  move troops into the eastern Sinai to combat the terrorists. Let’s stop for a moment and realize that when Israel (which the Muslim Brotherhood wants to wipe off the map) cooperates with a radical Islamist regime in Egypt (run by the Brotherhood) to send soldiers to fight radical Islamist terrorists (who want to wipe out Israel and also attack Egypt), you know you are in the Middle East. And you know that the revolutionary Islamists are making major strategic mistakes.

Parallel situations — albeit based on the very intense Sunni-Shia Islamist battle — are creating splits in Lebanon and increased Sunni Muslim antagonism against Hizballah and Iran generally because the latter back the current regime in Syria. Some time ago, Egypt also arrested a number of alleged Hizballah agents in Cairo, accusing that group of planning attacks on Egypt. (For more on the Sunni-Shia battle among Islamists see here.)

A couple of years ago I wrote an article saying that while the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood hated al-Qaeda and saw it as a competitor, the two groups had a lot of parallel ideas. Of course, they don’t agree on a strategy of direct attacks on the United States. The official Brotherhood website, partly misreading my point, wrote a very polite critique of my article trying to distance itself from al-Qaeda.

The response was restrained back then, since it was on the English-language propaganda site trying to convince the West that the Brotherhood was moderate. But when you are trying to put down the non-Islamist opposition and land an almost $6 billion IMF loan, it’s easy to throw out a few soothing words. Al-Qaeda attacks on Egypt and Israel make that game more difficult.

In Egypt now, there are four Islamist parties: the Brotherhood, Salafists willing to work with the Brotherhood, Salafists critical that the Brotherhood isn’t going fast enough, and “moderate” Islamists. Of course, all of them are pushing in the same direction and will cooperate much of the time. A lot of the debate is simply over how fast to convert Egypt into a radical, repressive Sharia state. But at least it makes their task harder.

All of these maneuvers are important and undercut the Islamist revolutionary movement. With Western policy being so confused, ineffective, and ignorant, the divisions among enemies may be the best thing going.

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Top Rated Comments   
Analysis , analysis, analysis. This name, that name. An endless waste of time. There is only one issue - how to eradicate these monsters. This endless blather only gains the enemy valuable time.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
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All Comments   (37)
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One way to maximize this trend, is to continue to advocate literacy and education, since statistically, the more women are educated the less the children they bear, hence the less future terrorists can be nurtured by the MB. Of course there's a problem with this theory: if the ME is truly in demographic free fall (and the statistics indicate as much), they might like decide to "use or lose it", as Iran seems to be threatening every couple of months. In that inverse world, if they really see their culture as dying, then why not go out in a blaze of glory and take as many with you in the process?

Jihadism is truly the most powerful cult in the world since it continously overrides people's innate desire to live.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
When Stalin was at the height of his power, he organized the purge trials that convicted and executed loyal communists.
When the Spanish Inquisition had eliminated JJewish belief from Spain, it tried Catholics of Jewish descent, and forced them to confess and to accuse other innocents before burning them at the stake.
When Chairman Mao was at the height of his power, he created the Great Leap Forward, in which good communist children denounced their communiist parents for being rightists and counterrevolutionaries.
Radical Islamists are doing what all radical groups do when they have power--or even when they don't. Killing one's own people is a way of expressing one's wrath against one's eemies. Islamists know that their Arab victims hate Jews every bit as much as they do themselves. But if you've got to kill you've got to kill.


50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as a completely naked terrorist suspect, led into a police car with his hands tied behind his back, is never heard from again, even though it was broadcast on national news.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
This is the problem with rebels and mob rule as it was when Pilate was ready to release Jesus but the mob wanted the rebel zealot Barabas. Jesus had the royal blood in his veins. This is what the transfiguration was about
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfiguration_of_Jesus
Elijah and Moses were living. In the hearts of the mob demonic rebellion breeds evil.The Christian was not meant to carry guns but the word of God converting the nations to the ROYAL BLOOD.Not just royal blood but the faithful approved by the Father royal blood.
Islam has the children of Abraham.The coming holy one of Islam of royal blood approved by God would crush rif raf rebellions and who know? Only toothless gunless christians allowed to live in Gaza figure of speech
Islam would stop being in the conversion business and begin to build up the children of Abraham to KISS the SON
it would be such a delight if Obama say anyone who wants to own a gun join the military. And sweep away every gun and bomb and knife from the rebel Barabas rif raf in USA so we can get focus on the worship of the True God and not rif raf demon possessed humans lusting for power
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
footnote
the Holy one of Islam Royal Blood will say : why not have Joel Osteen types live in Gaza. This is example of how God took Texas white Trash and made him into a humble king and they can turn Gaza into a beach front paradise while worshiping the True God.
The Three Abraham faiths then can prepare for the coming enemy that that hates them because he hates God
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as the White House tells the American people a bunch of lies about terrorist attacks -- in the religious tradition of taqiyya.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as a pressure cooker is called a weapon of mass destruction instead of what it really is: A weapon of terrorism.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JiHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as reporters are merely 'repeaters', who repeat what they are told by 'anonymous' sources.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
In the case of anything Islam related, "anonymous" would be the Muslim Brotherhood.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as police in a manhunt don't realize that heat-sensors in a helicopter can track a suspect at night.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
In the case of anything Islam related, "anonymous" would be the Muslim Brotherhood.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as police in a manhunt forget to use dogs to track a suspect.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
JIHAD IS NOT DOOMED ...
as long as an FBI agent, who has interviewed a suspected terrorist, is unable to identify him in an FBI photo.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
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