Who Rules Egypt? The Battle Begins
It is impossible for the moment to say what’s going to happen in Egypt. But there are two basic scenarios:
– The armed forces, which have declared martial law, will continue to control the real power and will use the Muslim Brotherhood leader who has become president, Muhammad al-Mursi, as a figurehead. Evidence for this includes the fact that the military is the current source for legislation in Egypt and controls foreign policy.
– The armed forces will impose a sweet deal on al-Mursi, letting him do pretty much what he wants as long as he doesn’t touch the military’s economic wealth and the army as an institution. The armed forces will determine who becomes defense minister and will set their own budget. Perhaps the generals will also insist al-Mursi doesn’t go too far in threatening Israel or antagonizing the United States (placing U.S. aid to the military in jeopardy).
Events could go either way, and it might take a while to see what’s happening since presumably it will take at least six months to elect a new parliament and another six months to write a constitution. In addition, the precise arrangements will be very important. Is the military only saying “hands-off” towards its economic empire and autonomy, or does it seek far more power? Will it effectively restrain the Muslim Brotherhood from possibly provoking war with Israel?
The other political forces in the country are more openly tipping their hands. The radical Salafists will try to outflank the Brotherhood in militancy, but are likely to cooperate with it on lots of things. Many of the moderate “liberals” are also supporting the Brotherhood.
The radical Salafists will try to prove their militancy compared to the Brotherhood, allowing the Brotherhood — along with Western media and governments — to portray the Brotherhood as moderate. For example, the al-Nour party says it would ban the sale of alcohol, both to Egyptians and tourists, and would close down the beach resorts that cater to Westerners. Almost certainly, al-Mursi will oppose doing anything to hurt Egypt’s tourism industry. He would do it for financial reasons but the West would interpret this as showing that al-Mursi is a pragmatist and moderate.
There are other things that might go unnoticed, yet which are far more important. Will al-Mursi interfere in Egypt’s official religious hierarchy by trying to replace the two highest officials (the qadi and the head of al-Azhar University)? While the relative moderation of establishment figures is often hypocritical and inconsistent, it would nevertheless play some role in limiting the Brotherhood’s extremism.
How long before we have to send humanitarian food relief?
I have an idea for containing the MB. Send them more money. Look how well it’s worked in Pakistan. Bad example, well what about North Korea? Uh, well what about Iraq? Yeah Iraq is a stable moderate islamic . . .oh never mind.
Let’s just let them kill each other. Maybe trade them our muslims for their Christians. That way, our muslims can live under sharia liekthey want, and the Coptic Christians can live under religious freedom without being attacked by the religion of peace.
With the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt, what western company in their right mind would want to do business there, let alone maintain offices there? At any moment that country could turn into another Iran, with westerners being trapped there as they were when Mubarak was being overthrown. Egypt right now is NOT the picture of stability, so I’m not really sure who would invest in it. If they have to rely only on our military aid to stay afloat, then they’re in really big trouble.
The only hope is for the Army to maintain total control of Egypt and keeping the Muslim Brotherhood in their place. If the Army does not do this, they will lose all power to the Muslim Brotherhood and I’m sure the generals know they will never get that power back if that happens. No, the best that we can hope for is another Anwar Sadat from the Army taking over Egypt. Not the best, but a heck of a lot better than any of the alternatives.
I can only hope that somehow the increase or opening of hostilities with Israel is forstalled by some group in Egypt that has a pragmatic understanding of the horrible consequences that an attack would precipitate. From afar things look bleak. If the economy in Egypt continues to worsen (and why would it not) then after the ‘excitement’ of the change in rulership wears off, millions of young men will realize that they still have basically no real future to look forward to. Their disillusionment will turn to despair, and thus the society will be ripe for demagogues to focus all that negativity on a scapegoat, and GUESS WHO that will be. If we get 4 more years of the present administration, its likely the US influence will be of no value in moderating extremism and the confused messages we send may only embolden the radical elements. This just isnt good!
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Who rules Egypt? I think we all know the answer to that question…DEMOCRACY RULES EGYPT!! I am so excited that the Egyptian people have spoken with one voice to select a representative government. I believe that the “Arab Spring” we are witnessing would never have come about without the courage and conviction of Our Very Dearest President Obama. Just His presence in the Oval Office gave traction to the powerless around the Middle East. What we’ll finally see is a renewal of peace and friendship, a scaling back of dependence on foreign oil in favor of “green” renewables, like wind, algae, and hand-picked non-genetic modified organic soy based fuel-type liquids. And maybe, the people who run the global banking system and news print will start to see how freedom has enveloped the land around them, and that they can no longer oppress, repress, and digress without repercussion! That, I believe, will lead to world peace and an ushering in of a new age of Man and His earthly divinity and self-actuated happiness. I love Me!
Wonderful.
This is at the top of short list for MB “To DO” things. The flourishing new democracy of the region will lead them all to a bright new future. All hail…who?
Awesome, that has to be the funniest posting I’ve read in a long time.
I’ll bet actual soldiers and military officers of lower rank are the least enthused about a possible war with Israel. But 1973 was a long time ago. Sometimes it takes a few air strikes in the neighnorhood to remind people war is hell. And then it’s on and too late.
The Muslim Brotherhood must also know that a shooting war with Israel is not likely to go well. Not that Egypt is a pushover. It’s got some advanced military hardware — thanks to decades and billions of US tax dollars. But as Israelis are always fighting to avoid genocide, they’re not likely to give up this time either.
BusinessWeek June 26, 2012
“An Egyptian court suspended the military’s right to arrest civilians, in a win for the Muslim Brotherhood in its power struggle with the ruling generals ahead of an end-June handover of power to the new Islamist president. ”
It looks as though the MB is going after the military’s power a little at a time.
How is this bad news?
Eygpt, in going the way of the Soviet Union, is doomed to the same fate. They are no threat, for a generation or more. This is good news.
I don’t believe for a second that the western “leftists” wanted anything other than another pro-western tin-dict who wasn’t perfect, but supported the the US the west and respected the Treaty with Israel. Getting rid of him and installing another western hating, Jew hating, sharia loving, genicidal maniac islamic republic was always their plan.
Got some starving people? No problem! Just have the imams jin up some Christian hatred and all the remaining (true Egyptians) Christians are slaughtered.
Still got starving people? No problem! Just have the imams point the finger of their misery at the Jews next door and use them for cannon fodder. Don’t worry! The world will make sure the make the Jews stop before they win the war and you won’t lose an inch of territory. But boy howdy! There will now be a lot more food for the remaining population!
Know one thing – if Syria falls, Jordan is next!
PS – There are also stirrings in Kuwait – our dependable Kuwait.
Egypt is almost gone (just think of it as gone – you’ll save yourself anxiety) Syria is fighting for it’s life (Assad is better than what will replace him. I firmly believe it’s the “rebels” who are killing the women and children and calling the media for photo ops. Classic propaganda mastered by the pals) and if they fall Jordan will be next. Who’s left after that? Yemen was always iffy. The United Arab Emerates? Small country and already islamic. The only question will be who prevails – Sunni or Shi’ite? Or maybe that doesn’t matter when there are Jews and Christians and Infidels to kill…..
Islam controls Egypt. Egypt’s poor employed Jeffersonian Democracy to elect imams. It will only get worse. Egypt will regress and be unable to feed itself. The pyramids could be at jeopardy. We have a real mess on our hands.
That the Moslem Brotherhood would take over was highly predictable to anyone who remembered the Iranian revolution which led to Khomeini and the Islamist government. The revolution was led by true liberal democrats, who quickly lost power to the Islamists. Those, like Thomas Friedman, who were oblivious to this likelihood, are now still trying to whitewash the Moslem brotherhood’s commitment to Sharia law, and anti-Israelism. For at least 60 years these have been the center-pieces of the Moslem Brotherhood’s charter and program. Friedman http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/opinion/what-does-morsi-mean-for-israel.html?ref=thomaslfriedman, again, is showing his obliviousness to the reality of the Moslem Brotherhood.
testing
Yep. The big man here is finally tax debt free. What these these Tax attorneys says sounds little hard to understand, but they completely explained how to make the best deal.