NATO believes Russia will renew its offensive into eastern Ukraine within the next two months:
The predictions of a new Russian offensive by analysts have coincided with similar statements by officials such as NATO Supreme Commander, USAF General Philip Breedlove. Gen Breedlove testified to this effect before the US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) on 30 April, stating that the sometimes on-sometimes off ceasefire agreed in February after the second round of Minsk negotiations had been utilised by the Russian forces to “reset and reposition”.
NATO’s assessment, he added, is that the Russian military’s goal is to secure the gains made on territory already taken in the Ukraine Donbass region, as well as to deploy for the launch of a late spring attack. “Many of their [the Russians’] actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive,” he said, adding that Russian forces’ activities were not just exercises but “preparing, training, and equipping to have the capacity again to take an offensive.”
Gen Breedlove’s conclusions were based on two major indicators. One is that Russia’s armed forces do not typically engage in empty sabre-rattling without following through with real military action. “In the past they have not wasted their effort,” he said.
You don’t have to approve of Putin’s actions in order to admire his followthrough. It’s something our leadership has been
sadly dangerously lacking.