Wargaming the Electoral College

We're going to do something a little different today, and examine each campaign's best-case scenario -- and their squeaker scenarios, too. Our betters in the Complicit Media keep telling us that this is a 50/50 nation, so let's take them at their word this once.

Now, after a nine-figure negative ad campaign against Romney managed to move the needle only slightly -- in Romney's favor -- I believe this 50/50 nation stuff is about as accurate as phrenology. Still, it makes for some interesting speculation. And -- who knows? -- the Democrat machine might just turn up enough dead, illegal, and/or Facebook voters to make it seem true just one more time.

Before we get to that, however, let's look at the best cases. And for Obama, this first map is as good as it can possibly get:

Here, Romney peels away IN and NC, and that's it. Keep in mind, Obama lost those two states right around January 20, 2009. The GOP could have raised Hitler from the dead, stuck Zombie Hitler on the top of the ticket, run him on a platform of "BRAAAAAAAAAINS!" and still taken IN and NC away from Obama.

I consider this outcome about as likely as the Brooklyn Dodgers going all the way to the Stanley Cup, barring some kind of unimaginably big (and probably illegal) October Surprise. Honestly though, as ineffective as Team Obama has been thus far, I'd expect their attempt at a Surprise to result in somehow swinging Illinois to Romney.