Soul Surfing the Blue Wave: What Happened, Why It Happened, and What the Hell We Can Do About It

1. The Democrats will overreach. It’s a stone-cold, cross-my-heart, bet-my-life guarantee: The Dems always overreach, but institutional forces will catapult it into overdrive. Between the far-left’s bloodlust for vengeance and the 2028 presidential incentive to traffic in red meat (or in Talarico’s case, tofu), overreach is inevitable. There’ll be hearings, subpoenas, targeting the president’s family, impeachment(s), threats, over-the-top rhetoric, and more. The radical left is emboldened; if you think they’re gonna put away their microphones, you’re crazy. They’ll be loud, bold, and aggressive!
2. President Trump will govern by executive order and Truth Social. Because honestly, he was doing that anyway. No legislation will be passed, and government shutdowns will be commonplace.
3. Tucker Carlson and his cohorts will, of course, blame the Jews. Especially those devious, traitorous backstabbers, (((Mark Levin))) and (((Ben Shapiro))). Because… something-something Israel.

1. Money is overrated. Kamala Harris had a ginormous cash advantage in 2024; she set it on fire. The GOP had a ginormous cash advantage in 2026 and did the same. Money has become one of the most meaningless metrics in American politics, because it’s not at all determinative. Stop expecting it to move the needle.
2. Turnout is king. In The New York Times’ “The Morning” newsletter, turnout was listed as the #1 reason for the blue wave: “High turnout shaped the outcome. In some places, turnout looked more like a presidential election. People likely cast about 10 million votes in Texas, a record for a midterm election there. Black voters and young voters swerved left.” Modern-day politics — particularly in midterm elections — is less about capturing the hearts and minds of undecideds than activating and mobilizing your supporters. The Dems flat-out beat us in the turnout game.
3. Historic trends exist for a reason. Since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats and 3.4 Senate seats in midterm elections. Yesterday’s results are still trickling in, but clearly, the president wasn’t immune to the tides of history. The rebounding pendulum is a bipartisan phenomenon; Republican or Democrat, it’s the rule, not the exception.
4. Candidate quality matters. No, it’s not the only thing that matters, but holy smokes, ask any football coach: Brilliant X’s and O’s won’t save incompetent Willies and Joes. From Texas through South Carolina, we ran too many duds — too many unnecessarily divisive candidates with charisma deficits. Instead of sending our best and brightest, we were lazy and self-indulgent. Meanwhile, the Dems may have nominated radical bomb-throwers, but they were glib and agile. Say what you want about Abdul El-Sayed (and Lord knows I have), but he’s a skillful, passionate, charismatic communicator. His opponent, Mike Rogers, was about as “meh” as it gets. Let’s up the quality of our candidate recruitment.
5. Campaigning is the art of competitive storytelling, and the GOP took its eyes off the ball. Badly. Spencer Pratt, the ex-reality TV star-turned candidate turned-pundit, had one of the most insightful midterm postscripts. It’s well worth your time.

1. Far-left Democrats — especially those with presidential ambitions. Hey, if Annie Andrews can win in South Carolina, James Talarico can win in Texas, and Abdul El-Sayed can win in Michigan, then AOC is absolutely a realistic presidential candidate. Too far left? Ha! It doesn’t exist! The way the Dems see it, it wasn’t the moderates who just won a mandate — it was the radical, DSA-aligned leftists. 
2. Ron DeSantis. Amidst the blue tsunami, Florida was dry land. After Republicans lost key races in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia, Florida is now the only top-ten most-populous state with a Republican governor. It was surprisingly close, but yet again, Florida sent a Republican to the Senate and a Republican to Tallahassee. More than Texas, Kansas, or even South Carolina, Florida has become one of America’s most reliably Republican states. It’s a beacon of hope, a source of partisan pride — and a model that Republicans would love to replicate nationally. Ron DeSantis’ presidential argument just got a helluva lot louder.
3. Donald Trump. It’s paradoxical, but Trump needs a foil. He’s a natural-born counterpuncher and styles make fights: An aggressive, radicalized, overreaching opponent is simply >chef’s kiss< for his fighting style. PR-wise, it’s a golden opportunity for his popularity to rebound — and thus maximize the GOP’s chances for 2028. Bill Clinton’s best PR friend was Newt Gingrich and the Republican Congress; Trump can use a similar playbook.

1. JD Vance. Yesterday, he was the undisputed GOP frontrunner for 2028. Today, not as much. Being the VP gives you a competitive advantage, but it also saddles you with the political fallout — even when it’s not your fault. Trump’s successes are Vance’s successes, but so are his failures. And failure has consequences.
2. Pro-Israel Americans. Turn out the lights, the party’s over. Candidates like El-Sayed clearly aren’t an anomaly; they’re a harbinger of what’s to come. America is abandoning Israel; at this point, our trajectory is undeniable. Between the Tucker Carlson wing of the Republican Party and the Hasan Piker wing of the Democratic Party, support for the Jewish state was strangled in the womb. It still exists — mostly with older voters — but it’s running on fumes.
3. Vivek Ramaswamy, Ken Paxton, Darlene Graham, and a slew of other starry-eyed hopefuls. Nobody loses more than the losing candidates themselves, and last night, a bunch of big, ambitious dreams went up in flames. I can’t back this with data, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramaswamy had the highest negatives of ANYONE in the midterms. He went from a presidential hopeful to a gubernatorial shoo-in to politically finished. And poor Darlene Graham will become shorthand for “dangerously unqualified and unprepared.” Heck, if I were running against JD Vance in 2028 and he flaunted his ties to Trump, I’d counter with, “I like Trump, but we don’t need another Darlene Graham nominee.” I know that sounds mean, but that’s the reality. This is a brutal, tough, and (largely) unfair business, yet that’s how the game is played.

Exclusively for our VIPs: PRedictions, PRojections, PRaise, and Predators: How NOT to Die With Dignity

1. Let the Democrats have their moment. Not much we can do about it anyway, and besides, who cares about winning the PR cycle after Election Day? This is the lull before the storm — the least consequential time on the political calendar. That means it’s the perfect time for the Dems to peak. Instead of fighting them, cede the microphone and encourage ‘em to reveal their true face.
2. Use the Dems as foils. Ladies and gentlemen, Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico will be running their mouths and saying stupid things for the next six years! Longshot presidential hopefuls in the House, like Ro Khanna, will continue to court the far-left base by caterwauling that “DEI is back!” and other fringe issues. And these are the people who now represent the Democratic Party brand! We WANT them to overreach. The crazier they look, the better it is for us.
3. Rebuild from within. The 2026 midterms were important, but they pale in comparison to 2028. That’s the election that will determine everything, from foreign policy to how many justices will serve on the Supreme Court. Let’s learn from yesterday: what worked, what didn’t, and what was a big waste of time and money. Were there institutional breakdowns? Which surrogates were the most effective? What dead weight can be shed? Which issues are our north star? As a movement, would jettisoning our more, ahem, “colorful” media personalities — i.e. Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens — be addition by subtraction, or are they a necessary evil in GOP coalition-building? Different conclusions demand different strategies. Now’s the time to ask these questions — because 2028 will be too late.