Four years ago, Trump’s political career was over. The Democrats had all the momentum, most of the media, and a very real opportunity to close the book on MAGA for good. It was all within their grasp.
But just as Barack Obama warned, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up.”
Instead of permanently closing the MAGA chapter, the Democrats inadvertently reopened it. Instead of capitalizing on their momentum and driving a stake through the heart of Trump’s political future, the missteps, screw-up, and broken promises of the Biden-Harris administration are precisely why, four years later, Trump will be returning to the White House.
Crisis communications — which includes PR, propaganda, and media relations — is a battle of dueling narratives. When the dominant narrative is damaging, you use crisis communications to popularize an alternative narrative that casts your client in a better light. It’s not something you can quantify with a specific scientific formula; you can’t plug in a few numbers and follow an equation. PR is nothing like balancing a spreadsheet.
It’s more like art.
PR pros are storytellers. And more often than not, the most entertaining story will prevail — especially if it has heroes, villains, and plenty of raw emotion.
Audiences don’t want to be bored. They covet drama, excitement, and entertainment.
Initially, the Democrats were successful at framing the January 6 narrative: they saw it as the death knell of the MAGA movement, a shocking overreach by the soon-to-be-ex-president, and the moral justification for the Democrats’ triumphant return to power.
Alas, that’s the danger of political overreach: When your reach exceeds your grasp, everything you have slips through your hands.
Trump tried pointing fingers. It was the Democrats’ fault! It was Pelosi’s fault! It was a set-up by the feds!
But initially, Trump’s excuses fell on deaf ears. The public was tired of him. And he left the White House in 2021 with a record-low approval rating of 34%.
(President Biden’s abysmal current approval rating of 37.3% is actually a few points higher than Trump’s during the final days of his first term.)
Yet here we are on the anniversary of January 6, and the Democrats have lost everything: They lost the debate, they lost the White House, and they lost the public’s support.
So what happened?
It turns out that winning the opening salvo in a propaganda campaign doesn’t translate into winning the argument.
Make no mistake, President Biden had honest-to-God momentum: He began his presidency with a 57% approval rating. Back then, the American people were exhausted by Trump’s antics, overwhelmed by COVID, and legitimately hoped for a return to normalcy. Had Biden delivered, he probably would’ve stayed on the ticket and won reelection (his senility notwithstanding). Remember, it wasn’t just his disastrous debate performance that sunk his candidacy; it was also Biden’s poor public polling.
If his approval rating was still at 57%, not even Pelosi would’ve dared make a move on him.
But in politics, you eventually need to deliver. The Democrats assumed the American people were just as terrified of the Scary Orange Menace as they were — and simply being “not Trump” would be enough. They made the classic PR mistake of marketing to themselves, and not to their audience.
For four long years, the Democrats stubbornly refused to listen to the voters. They ignored immigration. They ignored inflation. They ignored the housing crisis. And instead, they kept on insisting that this was the greatest economy in the history of history.
Meanwhile, Trump offered a counter-narrative: Things suck now, and they were way better four years ago.
The American people listened to both arguments and sided with Trump. After all, it’s not enough just to oppose the other side; we still expect the president to do his damn job.
Competency matters.
The Democrats were on the verge of winning the January 6 propaganda campaign. They really, truly were. But then, they overlooked one small little detail: They forgot to govern.
Let’s hope MAGA doesn’t make the same mistake.
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