A New Majority? PJTV Poll Tracks Tea Party Supporters
Starting today, PJTV -- via its Tea Party TV wing, but we're all PJ Media really -- is sponsoring a weekly tracking poll on the public's attitudes toward the Tea Party Movement (top line results here, video discussion here). Conducted for us by Pulse Opinion Research, these are "likely voter" polls using methods licensed from Rasmussen. One-thousand voters were surveyed on the first go-round with a sampling error of +/- 3%
We would be delighted to know your reactions to these polls as we go forward in the comments sections here or at PJTV. Feel free to suggest questions you would like to see asked and answered. I will be posting my reactions here.
For the first week's results, I found one at least "interesting" and two I would have to categorize, by varying degrees, as "startling."
Interesting: 54 percent supported the Tea Party Movement strongly or somewhat. The two categories of support were equally divided. Only 41% opposed the TPM (28% strongly, 13% somewhat).
Startling: 31 percent of self-identified Democrats support the TPM either strongly or somewhat.
Most Startling: Of the 54 percent who support the TPM, 52 percent do so privately [italics clearly deliberate]. Furthermore, just 9 percent consider themselves members of the movement but an additional 21 percent state they have friends and families who are.
In other words -- despite all those demonstrations and town hall meetings you may have been watching, reading about or participating in -- the Tea Party Movement is still largely sub rosa. Why? Well, a variety of answers suggest themselves (and I am sure you will have more), but, as a Hollywood screenwriter who voted for Bush, I know full well the necessity of keeping your mouth shut. And if we are a nation of people who have been keeping our mouths shut, look out in November.
To be "transparent," however, as the parlance goes, I should point out that not all polls are showing as much favorability to the TPM as ours. Washington Post/ABC News has one showing some significant disapproval. (The WaPo/ABC poll is of "adults," not "likely voters," as ours is.) On the other hand, this poll, conducted by Democratic Party operatives, is perhaps more ominous for the Dems than ours.
As most of you know, much of the devil of polling is in the details and PJTV is making all details of our weekly Tea Party polling available to subscribers. These details will include cross-tabbing and similar specific data-oriented features as well as the ability to read the weekly results earlier than others. This is another inducement for you to join with us and support PJ Media. Subscriptions begin at five dollars per month. You will also find other benefits of membership available here.
Meanwhile, the public part of the poll is on the next page.
Given your current knowledge of the Tea Party Movement and their positions on the issues, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the Tea Party Movement?
27% Strongly support
27% Somewhat support
13% Somewhat oppose
28% Strongly oppose
5% Not sure
Have you publicly shown support for the Tea Party Movement by speaking openly about it or is your support for the Tea Party Movement a private matter?
36% You publicly support the Tea Party Movement
52% You support the Tea Party Movement privately
12% Not sure
Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement or do have any close friends or family members who are part of the Tea Party Movement?
9% You are a Member of Tea Party
21% You are not member of the Tea Party but have friends or family who are
66% You no ties to the Tea Party
4% Not sure
How likely are you to vote for a candidate for Congress who the Tea Party Movement supports?
23% Very likely
25% Somewhat likely
14% Not very likely
25% Not at all likely
13% Not sure
Special questions for this survey only:
How strongly do you agree with the statement “The Tea Party Movement is racist?”
16% Strongly agree
19% Somewhat agree
16% Somewhat disagree
36% Strongly disagree
13% Not sure
When you think about the charges of racism in the Tea Party Movement, do you believe they are based on fact or do you believe they are politically motivated?
21% You believe charges of racism are based on fact
55% You believe charges of racism are politically motivated
24% Not sure