The news coverage of Ukraine's war with Russia has slackened in recent months. While the courageous Ukrainian soldiers were scoring surprising victory after victory, the glowing media coverage made it appear that Kyiv was going to win the wear,
When Ukrainian troops kicked the Russians out of Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city, in May 2022, Western leaders were quick to claim that the war could be over by the end of summer.
Now, two years later, Kharkiv is once again the focal point of the war, only this time, Russia is winning. A ground offensive to take Kharkiv is expected next, with little chance that Ukraine can hold on through what is probably going to be the last summer of the war.
“We know people are flagging and we hear it from regional governors and from the people themselves,” Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s powerful chief of staff, told Politico. Morale-boosting tours with Zelenskyy are only effective when there is hope. There is none, and the signs are all over the country.
The most obvious sign is the lack of volunteers to replace Ukraine's heavy losses. Even with the recent changes in the draft law, including lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 and allowing for more deferments, replacements for exhausted front-line troops are not stepping forward.
Morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield. In cities hundreds of miles away from the front, the crowds of young men who lined up to join the army in the war’s early months have disappeared. Nowadays, eligible would-be recruits dodge the draft and spend their afternoons in nightclubs instead. Many have left the country altogether.
As I discovered while reporting from Ukraine over the past month, the picture that emerged from dozens of interviews with political leaders, military officers, and ordinary citizens was one of a country slipping towards disaster.
Even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine is trying to find a way not to retreat, military officers privately accept that more losses are inevitable this summer. The only question is how bad they will be. Vladimir Putin has arguably never been closer to his goal.
Ukraine's leaders are angry at the West because their overblown rhetoric about sticking with Kyiv and standing with Ukraine until the Russians are defeated does not match the level of material support they've sent to date. This is not just a U.S. problem. Other nations in Europe can't bear to part with their own sophisticated arms, believing that they may have to use them to protect themselves once Ukraine is finished.
The Europeans, as always, politely stand aside and let the U.S. do the heavy lifting when it is countries of Eastern Europe — especially Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania — that are next on Putin's target list.
Without a major step-change in the supply of advanced Western weapons and cash, Ukraine won’t be able to liberate the territories Putin’s forces now hold. That will leave Putin free to gnaw on the wounded country in the months or years ahead. Even if Russia can’t finish Ukraine off, a partial victory will leave Kyiv’s hopes of joining the EU and NATO stuck in limbo.
The ramifications of such an outcome will be serious for the world. Putin will claim victory at home, and, emboldened by exposing Western weaknesses, he may reinvigorate his wider imperial ambitions abroad. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are especially fearful they are next on his hit list. China, already an increasingly reliable partner for Moscow, will see few reasons to alter its stance.
For those who believe that is Ukraine propaganda, I wish you well in the world that Putin and Russia will create. The amazing short-sightedness of many on the right will lead to the premature end of the American century.
The chaos that follows will not be on those who warned about it.
