For the first time since October 7, when the war between Israel and Hamas began, Iran "publicly said it's attacked an Israeli target," Bloomberg reports, although its proxies in Yemen (Houthi rebels) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) have been busy trying to widen the war.
Iran's attack on an Israeli spy base in Erbil, Iraq, killed four people and wounded six, according to Kurdish authorities. The Iraqi government claims that the Iranians hit a civilian house in a residential neighborhood.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani said in an interview in Davos that the strike was “a clear act of aggression against Iraq that targeted a residential area in which the victims were an Iraqi-Kurdish family, including children.”
“This is for sure a dangerous development that undermines the strong relationship between Iraq and Iran,” he said. “The Iraqi government maintains its right to all diplomatic and legal procedures granted to it by its sovereignty.”
Indeed, we're probably not going to hear any stronger denunciation from Iraq; oftentimes it's hard to differentiate whether the country is a nation or an Iranian lap dog.
Iran says it acted “in response to the Israeli assassination of a number of commanders of the IRGC and the resistance front.” Recent Israeli targets have included several Hamas commanders assassinated in Beirut and some Revolutionary Guard commanders killed in Syria.
Adnan Tabatabai, an Iran analyst and the chief executive officer of the Germany-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, says the longer Israel's war with Hamas continues, the more complicated it gets to keep the conflict from spiraling out of control.
“As long as military strategists on all sides read the signals sent between the lines of retaliation and deterrence correctly, we can hope for no further escalation,” he said. “Only an enduring cease-fire in Gaza, for which all actors involved have to play their part, can calm things down meaningfully.”
The Israel-Hamas war has spilled over into Iraq. US bases there — which house around 2,000 American troops — have come under attack several times from Iran-backed militias. The US has struck back at some targets in Iraq, which Baghdad has said violates its sovereignty.
Attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea are also intensifying, with a missile hitting a bulk carrier on Tuesday in the latest suspected strike.
Tehran has launched multiple hits on Iraq’s Kurdistan region since late 2022 to counter what it says are national security threats. Iran has accused separatist Kurdish groups in the region of collaborating with foreign security services against it.
Iran says it also attacked the base of a Sunni militant group, Jaish al-Adl. But that report strangely disappeared from Iranian state-run media after a few hours. The attacks struck the restive Pakistani province of Baluchistan where separatists have been conducting cross-border raids into Iran.
Related: Two Navy SEALs Are Missing After Intercepting Iranian Warheads Bound for Houthi Rebels
The Pakistani foreign ministry issued a strong statement in response.
“Pakistan strongly condemns the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran which resulted in death of two innocent children while injuring three girls,” the statement read. “This violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty is completely unacceptable and can have serious consequences.”
Baluchistan has faced a low-level insurgency by Baluch nationalists for more than two decades. Baluch nationalists initially wanted a share of provincial resources, but later initiated an insurgency for independence.
Iran long has suspected Sunni-majority Pakistan as hosting insurgents, possibly at the behest of its regional archrival Saudi Arabia. However, Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a Chinese-mediated détente last March, easing tensions.
Is it a coincidence that Iran is striking out against its enemies with the Middle East a timebomb and Israel and the U.S. engaged against Hamas?
Iran is pushing the envelope, trying to determine how far they can go without having their knuckles rapped. After the destruction of the Mossad base in Erbil, I doubt whether Israel has much patience with the clerical fascists in Tehran.
