McCarthy Looking to Avoid the First Floor Fight for Speaker Since 1923

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) wants to be the speaker of the House. But as it stands now, there are probably enough Republican votes to deny McCarthy his prize.

McCarthy needs 218 votes to get elected speaker. But the GOP will have a slim majority of perhaps 222 seats when Congress convenes on January 3 and the vote for speaker is held. According to The Hill, there are already at least five GOP members who have announced their opposition to McCarthy.

There are also another seven or eight GOP members who are skeptical of McCarthy’s leadership and may vote no. What all this amounts to is the real possibility that Republicans will have a bloody floor fight trying to get McCarthy or some other more conservative member elected speaker.

McCarthy maintains confidence that he will win the Speakership, but around five House Republicans have already signaled they will not support McCarthy’s Speakership bid on the floor, likely already putting him under 218 and throwing his position into dangerous territory. Several others are withholding support, too, without necessarily saying they will vote against McCarthy on Jan. 3.

McCarthy’s opponents have a big problem; they can obstruct McCarthy, but they don’t have near enough strength to put forward their own candidate who could get 218 votes.

NBC News:

“He doesn’t have the votes,” said Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., a leader of the conservative Freedom Caucus. “Some of the stages of grief include denial, so there will be some denial and then there’ll be the stage of bargaining where people are trying to figure out … will there be some kind of consensus candidate that emerges.”

And one of the stages of insanity is “delusional thinking.” Biggs, who has announced his intention to run against McCarthy for the speakership, can’t seriously believe that a “consensus” will emerge backing him or any other right-winger for the job. McCarthy has several dozen allies who will be with him until the bitter end. They alone would derail any far-right candidate for the speaker’s job.

So the nightmare scenario being advanced is floor vote after floor vote being taken vainly trying to find a candidate who can get to 218 votes.

There have only been 14 instances in the history of Congress where it took more than two ballots for a nominee to get a majority. The first 13 happened before the Civil War. The last time it happened was in 1923 when progressive Republicans blocked the re-election of a speaker because they wanted certain rule changes. Eventually, the non-progressives struck a deal, and the vote was held the next day after six ballots.

The longer it goes on, the more popcorn Democrats can pop to watch the GOP tear itself apart. Hopefully, it won’t come to that. McCarthy may be able to satisfy the conservatives by appointing more of their friends to head committees and sub-committees. All sides recognize the damage that can be done by engaging in a useless floor fight.