Belmont Club

Data point

An interesting thing happened while Barack Obama was on his worldwide “victory lap”. His fortunes began to fall in the Intrade prediction markets and lost momentum over the same period.

The Victory Lap time period It may not have any real long term significance, but it is possible the trades capture short-term information arising from a period of intensive coverage of the candidate’s message, often in adulatory terms. But why didn’t BHO’s fortunes in the prediction markets climb? The latest trades should have incorporated the information from the early part of BHO’s overseas trip. It will be interesting to watch. I don’t think it tells us anything about how the election might go in November, other than that the current betting odds still favor Obama, but there might be a clue or two about what drivers are providing impetus — or not providing impetus — to BHO’s campaign.

Tip Jar.