The strategic island nation of Madagascar sits astride the Mozambique channel in the Indian Ocean. France was once influential over this key piece of geography. “The French established trading posts along the east coast in the late 17th century," notes Wikipedia. "From about 1774 to 1824, Madagascar gained prominence among pirates and European traders, particularly those involved in the trans-Atlantic slave trade.” Now, it is wracked by political upheaval, and its president, Andry Rajoelina, has fled, allegedly driven out by street protests against perceived widespread corruption. Rajoelina is reported to have escaped to Paris on a French military aircraft at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron. The turning point for the embattled ex-president came when his troops refused to crack down on the protesters and apparently menaced him.
Where will this upheaval go? France has been having a run of bad luck in Africa. The European nation was recently forced out of Mali (2022), Burkina Faso (2023), Niger (2023), and Chad (late 2024). French companies, particularly in mining, have faced license revocation. Events in Madagascar can only erode Francophone Africa further.
France’s shoes will not remain vacant long. Russia has already filled the French vacuum in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the Central African Republic (CAR) with its mercenary army called the Africa Corps (spelled with a "c," not the "k"). The Africa Corps was established by the Russian Ministry of Defence after the death of Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, shortly after he opposed Vladimir Putin. Since 2017, Russia has provided military support for several governments in Africa through various mercenary organizations. In return, Russian companies have been given privileged access to gold and diamond mines, while the Russian military has been granted access to airbases and ports.
For Africans leery of consorting with the infidel, Turkey is the "Muslim" alternative to the secular offerings. Those who dislike the Russian can have the Turk. It supplies drones and training via firms like SADAT. The NATO Defense College Foundation reports, "Turkey’s military influence in Africa is rapidly expanding, with approximately 6.000 military personnel deployed in Somalia, Niger, and Libya. This figure is three times the size of France’s regional forces, underscoring the significant scale of Turkey’s operations.”
Even more Muslim than Turkey is the assistance of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Their model emphasizes religious/Islamic education and weapons assistance all rolled in one and avoids the neocolonial baggage of France. “The UAE has been accused of secretly supplying weapons to Sudanese paramilitaries via neighbouring Chad,” reports the Guardian:
The 14-page report – completed last November and sent to the Sudan sanctions committee of the UN Security Council – was written by a panel of five UN experts who “documented a consistent pattern of Ilyushin Il-76TD cargo flights originating from the United Arab Emirates” into Chad, from where they identified at least three overland routes potentially used for transporting weapons into neighbouring Sudan.
For those who haven’t heard of Chad, it is the site of a very bloody civil war. Saudi Arabia’s African involvement is more modest for now. “Burkina Faso has welcomed a partnership with the Riyadh-based Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition to tackle the growing threat of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the Sahel.” The Saudis also offered to build 200 mosques, presumably to counter the doctrines of the jihadists.
Exclusively for our VIPs: Hybrid War
With the former president of Madagascar cooling his heels in Paris, it is probable that any number of Russian, Chinese, Turkish, or Gulf diplomats will be presenting themselves to the new rulers of that island nation. But strategically more ambitious, though quieter than all these motley post-colonial efforts, is China's Belt and Road Initiative. This is really serious stuff, according to Wikipedia:
It aims to invest in over 150 countries and international organizations through six overland economic corridors and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. …
In the maritime silk road, which is already the route for more than half of all containers in the world, deep-water ports are being expanded, logistical hubs are being built, and new traffic routes are being created in the hinterland. The maritime silk road runs with its connections from the Chinese coast to the south, linking Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and Jakarta, then westward linking the Sri Lankan capital city of Colombo, and Malé, capital of the Maldives, and onward to East Africa, and the city of Mombasa, in Kenya. From there the linkage moves northward to Djibouti, through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean, thereby linking Haifa, Istanbul, and Athens, to the Upper Adriatic region to the northern Italian hub of Trieste, with its international free port and its rail connections to Central Europe and the North Sea.
Belt and Road itself is believed to be cover for China's String of Pearls strategy, aimed at establishing a network of commercial and military "pearls" along key maritime routes on the Indian Ocean, extending from the South China Sea to the Horn of Africa. Former French and British possessions make up many of these. All are stepping stones for Beijing.
The regime in Madagascar may have changed, but perhaps the more things appear to change, the more they remain the same. Colonialism in Africa is not dead, but its ID photograph is seriously out of date. The picture of the settler colonialist on file in critical studies departments shows a gap-toothed European wearing a pith helmet and ammunition boots. In today’s reality, he is much more likely to look Slavic, Chinese, or Arab. The day of Rommel’s Afrika Korps is long gone, but the saga of Putin’s Africa Corps has only just begun.
