Fox News chief political analyst Brit Hume raised eyebrows this week when he warned that Republicans could hand Democrats a Texas Senate seat — and he was being serious. His concern centers on Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has surged to the front of the three-way Republican primary, ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
According to a recent University of Houston Hobby School poll of 550 likely GOP primary voters shows Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31%, and Hunt at 17%, with 12% still undecided. Paxton leads across nearly every key demographic — except Latino voters, where Cornyn holds a 7-point edge. The primary is set for March 3, and a potential runoff is on May 26 if no candidate clears a majority.
During a Wednesday segment on Fox News' Special Report, Hume expressed concern about what Paxton nomination could mean in November.
"I think that he [Paxton] is a controversial figure. He's been both indicted and impeached on separate issues," Hume said. "And while he's survived both of those things, his background might be fertile territory for Democrats trying to beat him if he was a general election candidate, so that's a race to really watch."
In 2023, the Texas House impeached Paxton on 20 articles — bribery, dereliction of duty, and obstruction of justice — but the Texas Senate acquitted him, and a related federal investigation fizzled out in the final days of the Biden administration. Still, that's a lot of baggage to haul into a general election.
"The Republicans do have some issues here because John Cornyn, the incumbent, would... be the strongest general election candidate. But at the moment, he is trailing in the polls and has been for some time. And the leading guy, leading the polls, Ken Paxton, is adored by a lot of Trump supporters and the MAGA wing of the Republican Party."
Rep. James Talarico stands as the most formidable contender. "Well, if Talarico wins, he's a very articulate young man. A talented young man. He is a fairly promising candidate, and Democrats have dreamed... that they can somehow turn the state of Texas blue. It could happen, I suppose."
It could happen, I suppose?
That's the political analyst equivalent of "sure, why not?”
Here’s where I have to push back.
Democrats have been chasing the Texas dream for years, and they keep coming up empty. Heck, in 2024, there were polls claiming Kamala Harris was within striking distance, yet Trump won the state by nearly 14 points — more than double his 2020 margin. In fact, he became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Texas by double digits since 2012. This isn’t a competitive state; it’s a statement. Even in 2016, when Trump was still an unknown to many voters, he beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by nine points.
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Yes, Sen. Ted Cruz had a close reelection in 2018 against Beto O’Rourke, but that came two years after Trump’s nine-point victory over Clinton. November’s midterms arrive just two years after Trump crushed Harris by 14 points. The math doesn’t lie: Texas isn’t the swing state Democrats hope it is.
Democrats have poured time, money, and energy into flipping Texas for years. Beto O'Rourke ran statewide twice and lost both times. The party's Texas dream has all the staying power of a campaign promise, but never delivers.
Paxton may carry real political liabilities. Hume isn't wrong about that. But the idea that Texas is suddenly ripe for a Democratic pickup requires ignoring a decade of evidence that says otherwise. I still think Republicans should run the strongest candidate they can. But losing Texas to a Democrat? That's a fantasy that survives only inside Democratic donor calls and cable news segments.
