It’s 2026, and naturally, the big question is what’s going to happen in the midterms. The balance of power could shift and have enormous consequences on the second half of Trump’s second term, but something perhaps even more consequential looms, and it’s not good for the Democrats: the 2030 census.
This week, the Census Bureau dropped its 2025 population estimates, and frankly, they weren’t all that surprising to anyone who’s been paying attention.
Red states, of course, boomed, while blue states bled residents. Florida and Texas led the charge in raw growth numbers. It’s not rocket science; people flee high taxes and sky-high living costs in places such as California and New York. They chase jobs and freedom down south.
Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting and apportionment expert at Carnegie Mellon University, crunched the numbers and sees Florida and Texas each gaining four new House seats after the 2030 Census. California, New York, and Illinois lose eight seats combined. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho pick up one apiece. Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island each drop one.
#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) January 27, 2026
Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University pic.twitter.com/DACPg0Nldf
The Republican American Redistricting Project sees more modest shifts for GOP-leaning states. Texas still nets four seats, but Florida gets two. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho each still gain one, and California loses four. New York, Illinois, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island all lose one as well.
🚨2030 Apportionment Forecast🚨
— The American Redistricting Project (@AmerRedistrict) January 27, 2026
+4: TX
+2: FL
+1: AZ, GA, ID, NC, UT
-4: CA
-1: IL, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI, WI
* Based on the 2025 Census Population Estimates released January 27, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ugZPVCs6zw
Both projections not only hand Republicans more safe seats, but also give Republicans a stronger advantage in the electoral college.
"The Rust Belt states and Sun Belt states will continue to be the battleground,” Adam Kincaid of the National Republican Redistricting Trust told Politico. “The difference is that Republicans will be able to win the White House without a single Rust Belt state, whereas Democrats would have to sweep the Rust Belt and win in the Sun Belt."
Win the Sun Belt? And how are they going to do that? I don’t see it.
The Democrats’ only hope here is that blue state refugees bring their far-left politics with them.
Marina Jenkins of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee believes this is happening, and suggests that these new voters will sway statewide races, just as migration from Massachusetts to New Hampshire made the Granite State a more blue-leaning swing state. But I haven’t seen any evidence that this is happening right now. We’ve been reporting on the blue-to-red state migration for years, yet the two biggest gainers in net migration, Florida and Texas, have only swung more Republican in recent elections.
So there’s no way to sugarcoat this for the Democrats. They are in real trouble after the next census. If the migration trends don’t result in a significant change in how red states vote, the Democrats’ only option to win will be to move back toward the center.
Can you see them doing that?
