Joe Biden knows how important Michigan is to his campaign, The October 7 terrorist attack in Israel by Hamas tanked his poll numbers in the state, and Trump has had a consistent lead in the state in the RealClearPolitics average ever since. Biden can't afford to offend the Muslim community in the state over his previous public support of Israel, so now, in an effort to win the state back, he's essentially thrown Israel under the bus.
But, it looks increasingly likely that Joe Biden has turned the state into a lost cause.
For one thing, despite the fact that he has changed his tune on Israel, the antisemitic wing of the Democratic Party seems to be unmoved. His campaign events remain the target of protests, and the most recent Democratic primaries have had some significant protest votes. In Rhode Island, 14.9% of Democrats voted for "uncommitted." In Connecticut, 11.6% of Democrats voted "uncommitted, while in Wisconsin, 8.3% chose the "uninstructed delegate" option. These are roughly in line with the 13.2% of Democrat voters who voted for "uncommitted" in February's primary in Michigan. In other words, this issue isn't going away for Biden.
Related: Here’s Why Joe Biden Is Abandoning Israel
But Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war isn't the only issue that may have doomed him in Michigan. The other issue is the border crisis.
According to John Yob, the CEO of Strategic National, recent murders in the state of Michigan committed by illegal immigrants may drive voters to support Trump in November.
"Tragedy struck Grand Rapids in West Michigan very hard this week, and the impact on Michigan politics and the national election is undeniable," he wrote. "This tragedy is going to change Michigan’s electoral outlook and quite possibly impact the entire country."
Yob cited one case of an illegal immigrant who was convicted of murder in February, and the more recent murder of 25-year-old Ruby Garcia on March 24 by illegal immigrant Brandon Ortiz-Vite—which has sparked significant national attention and is poised to remain a national story for some time.
“The issue of illegal immigrants murdering people in Grand Rapids is now a national story that will not go away any time soon,” Yob explained. “Suburban families, even as far north as West Michigan, are now finding out that the open southern border is in their backyard — and they don’t like it. They are about to hear about it over and over again in the media.”
According to Yob's analysis, "just a small shift in sentiment from traditional 1990’s style Republicans in West Michigan would move Michigan’s electoral votes back to President Trump. The ripple effect of the media attention will also impact “security moms” in areas of the state such as Oakland County and Traverse City, quite possibly moving Michigan out of reach for President Biden."
Related: Yeah, Biden Has a Michigan Problem
"The immigration issue hitting home in West Michigan is going to fundamentally change the outlook of the 2024 election and put Michigan more firmly in President Trump’s corner," Yob concludes. "Because of Biden’s failed immigration policies, this is likely to play out in other states and across the country - a prime example of which is Georgia, after the murder of nursing student Laken Riley in February."
Biden was already having trouble in Michigan, if Yob is right, the state may very well be a lost cause for him.
