Well before Donald Trump officially entered the 2024 presidential race, there was widespread speculation about who he might pick as his running mate.
There have been lots of names thrown out there, including Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y), Kari Lake (R-Ariz.), Gov. Kristi Noem (R-S.D.), Ben Carson, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (I-Hawaii) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). One certainty was that it wouldn't be Mike Pence... for obvious reasons. There were even reports that Trump was considering Nikki Haley — much to the chagrin of his supporters — though I suspect she destroyed any chance of being picked when she refused to drop out of the race earlier when it was obvious she had no path to victory, and even more so when she neglected to endorse him after she finally did drop out.
Now that Trump has become the presumptive nominee, the question of who he will pick is as hot as ever. And according to a recent report, one issue in particular is shaping his decision-making process: abortion.
According to NBC News, sources close to Trump say he has been "laser-focused on the abortion issue, especially when it comes to his vice presidential pick," and that he sees it as "the one major advantage for Democrats and a vulnerability for Republicans."
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“The president understands it as a treacherous issue — one that you can actually trip up and fall on your face with,” the source said. This person added that it was likely that Trump would not pick “someone with a six-week ban in their discussions or someone without any commitment on the exceptions.”
Another source, speaking on condition of anonymity, disclosed that besides Sen. Tim Scott, Trump has been inquiring about the stance of other potential vice presidential candidates on abortion. Specifically, the source mentioned Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
“He’s concerned it will have a drag on the ticket if they’re seen as holding too staunch a position,” the source said.
Trump has never been shy about his belief that Republicans haven't handled the abortion issue well. Frankly, Democrats are so extreme on the issue Republicans could easily take the upper hand on it, if they took it from a different approach. Polls have consistently shown that while Americans generally believe abortion should be legal, there should be limits on it. Support for abortion drops significantly each trimester. Just 13% of Americans support abortion in the final trimester, and only 30% support abortion in the second trimester. This means that a gestational limit of 12 to 15 weeks is actually mainstream, and abortion anytime without limits, which Democrats support, is way, way out on the fringe.
Since Roe v. Wade has been overturned and it's up to the states to regulate, it's essential to consider where mainstream America is on this issue as a starting point. If Republicans can prove to the public they're the reasonable voice on the abortion issue, then it will be much easier to win them over on more regulation down the road.
I'm not sure who Trump will ultimately pick as his running mate, but, if Trump sees the abortion issue as the key issue to overcome, I think this strongly points to his picking a woman as his running mate.
