Gavin Newsom Is Back on Top of One 2028 List. Does It Mean Anything?

In veteran political reporter Mark Halperin's July rankings of potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominees, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was rising, while Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) was losing momentum. Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) candidates had just achieved huge victories in New York and Colorado primaries the previous month, and Halperin declared that the toughest thing to do in Democratic politics was to stop a socialist from becoming the presidential nominee.

Newsom slipped from first place to second place in August. Now, in Halperin's September rankings, he's back on top. What changed?

Halperin compiles his monthly rankings by asking more than 60 analysts, mostly Democrats, whom they think is most likely to become the party's 2028 nominee. Despite placing Newsom first in July, Halperin believed the governor would ultimately decide not to run because he is the subject of U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigations.

Sanders, who ranked third in July behind Newsom and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.), was one of three candidates in Halperin's top eight that month from what he called the "Mamdani wing of the Democratic Party." Halperin was bullish on the Vermont senator because he believed the Democratic establishment was weaker than ever and that candidates from the establishment wing realized they had to "cater to the progressive wing."

That brings us back to Newsom. Halperin now thinks the governor has figured out how to do just that: appeal to the Democratic Party's socialist wing. He points to a Sept. 7 PBS interview Newsom gave in South Carolina in which he was asked where he stands on the DSA. Newsom answered: "If it's about more money in your pocket, lowering costs ... getting money out of politics and ... about Medicare for all, I think we're pretty aligned." While most Republicans can't listen to a word the hand-gesticulating governor says without thinking "phony," Halperin praised the answer's "sophistication":

I've not heard Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, or any other potential presidentials talk about a big tent with such confidence and clarity as Newsom did in that one answer. And that's a testament not only to the prospect that he can win some of those votes, even if there's a socialist in the race if he runs, and that he can keep the party united the way Hillary Clinton struggled to do in 2016, part of why she didn't beat Donald Trump, but that he has a lot of savvy and a lot of confidence.

And people underrate the ability that he has to think through and speak. It's kind of ironic because one of the biggest raps against him is he's inauthentic. A lot of people say that about him. That's not what I think about him.

What about another potential candidate whom so many find inauthentic: Kamala Harris? Newsom recently told Jake Tapper while the two were fly-fishing that he wouldn't run for president if the former vice president decided to run because it would be "mutual assured destruction." Halperin took that mysterious answer into consideration but ultimately kept Newsom at number one. Although Harris, like Newsom, would be able to raise a lot of money, he agrees with those who believe she won't run. For that reason, she lands at number six on his list.

Gov. Shapiro, who appears poised to cruise to reelection, is another candidate who can raise money. Halperin still has him in the number two position, but last I checked, he's still Jewish, so I think that's way too high for a party with an out-of-control antisemitism problem.

Being gay and short may be less of a problem than being Jewish. Halperin acknowledges that many people write off Pete Buttigieg, number three on the list, because of those two characteristics, but he thinks he's a strong contender for three reasons: He knows how to campaign, win votes, and build coalitions. The big question remains whether he can win over black voters, which he wasn't able to do the last time he ran.

These names make up the so-called "establishment" wing of the Democratic Party, although the establishment and socialist wings are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish. As Victor Davis Hanson notes, "Democratic Socialists became mainstream largely by imitating an increasingly socialist Democratic Party."

      Related: Bernie Rising: Is Sanders Becoming a 2028 Frontrunner?

As for the more unabashedly socialist candidates, Halperin ranks Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y., 14th District) at number four, ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at number seven, although he is not certain that she'll run — despite speculation concerning her decision to freeze her eggs.

And I continue to believe that one of the biggest moments that's coming in the presidential nomination fight for the Democrats is when AOC and Bernie sit down and have conversations, which I suspect they'll do right after the midterms. Which one of them's going to run? And if neither of them's going to run, the Democrats are going to face a problem. But I believe that if she does run, she will be the consensus socialist choice—progressive choice—even though a lot of progressives think, ironically, she's too moderate.

The takeaway from Halperin's admittedly way-too-early horse-race prognostication is that some of the leading contenders might not even enter the race.

One name we can rule out, however, is Zohran Mamdani. If the names on Halperin's list are too depressing for you to contemplate, at least take comfort in the fact that the New York City mayor isn't among them — at least not this cycle.

Editor's Note: The Democrat Party has been infected by socialism, and it's spreading FAST. Democrats are claiming there's nothing to worry about, but we know the truth.

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