Uncertainty Continues Regarding Isaac’s Track, Intensity
[NOTE: check the blog homepage and follow me on Twitter for the latest all weekend.
For an overview of the situation with Tropical Storm Isaac as of tonight, including specifically the significant threat to New Orleans, please see my main Saturday-evening post, "Déjà Vu: Isaac’s Katrina Moment?"]
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The much-anticipated 00Z ECWMF (Euro) model has just come out, and it doesn’t push Tropical Storm Isaac as far west as the GFS, HWRF, and a number of other models. It does show a major westward shift compared to the previous Euro run, from a landfall in Florida’s Big Bend to a landfall near Mobile, Alabama:
But because the GFS and the Euro — the two best-performing computer models — continue to disagree, with the GFS taking Isaac catastrophically into New Orleans while the Euro takes it to Mobile, substantial uncertainty will remain about Isaac’s track. Dr. Ryan Maue predicts the Euro’s projected landfall in Mobile “will prevent NHC from taking track any further west than that” until after another Euro run, which in turn means “it won’t be until [the] 5 pm advisory tomorrow before NHC expresses certainty on Landfall point — after ECMWF 12z at 2:15 PM.” In the mean time, New Orleans will almost certainly come to be in the “cone” by Sunday morning, but likely won’t be on the official track “line” until later, even if the GFS continues to predict a landfall there.
(To be clear: a disastrous strike on New Orleans is only one among many scenarios that could occur. Mobile, Pensacola, Panama City — you are all still in play. Heck, if the GFS’s westward drift continues, it’s conceivable that points in central or western Louisiana could end up being in play too. My focus on New Orleans doesn’t imply that New Orleans is the likeliest landfall spot, but only that it’d be the most catastrophic by far, and thus warrants a great deal of attention.)
This time there will be a double whammy if NO gets hit. One deep impact on the federal response to Katrina was the Labor Day holiday. By the time the Gulf Coast dug out, the regional rescue/assistance had handled the immediate crisis and the extent of the longer term needs were becoming apparent, DC was on holiday most going on leave that Thursday/Friday for a long holiday.
It was just near impossible to get anyone outside the disaster to grasp the extent. It didn’t help the media was going on and on about New Orleans. In any case, by the time Bush issued the call to arms on Thursday the feddies were all on vacation. On Tuesday when they returned to work, they hit the ground in a panic with edicts and demands to those of us in the mud. Real assistance came a couple days later.
This time, there is Labor Day vacation and the Democratic Convention party. If disaster strikes, keep an eye on the missing federal officials and their impact. Of course, it may not happen that way this time but this is the last big vacation before the fall “staff season” in DC and the big party/battle of the election so my bet is on neglect….again
I find it hard to imagine that with an election coming up that the Feds would drop the ball. Nor do I see Bobby Jundal taking his eyes off the ball for a moment. It will interesting to see the press try to make hay out of the storm.
The response time by the feds will be worse but theres a democrat in the white house so the media will ignore the delays.
Whatever happens this time, the media will not in any way blame the President for any of the fed’s failures, real or imagined.