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Just a very quick update as we await the ECWMF model (the “Euro”). The HWRF, a somewhat older model (which, as I recall, has a tendency to overstate intensity at times), just came out with its 00z run. In the words of Dr. Ryan Maue: “Monster Cat 4-5 on a straight line to New Orleans. Unbelievable.”
I don’t really believe the whole Category 4-5 bit, for reasons I just explained in my last post, but the general concept of big-time intensification + track toward New Orleans = really, really bad news, obviously. Add the 00z HWRF to the pile of evidence for that conclusion, and let’s wait and see what the Euro says.