[NOTE: The Houston Chronicle's Eric Berger will be hosting a live chat on Hurricane Ike at 3:00 PM EDT today. His chats are always excellent.
Also, Dr. Jeff Masters has a new post up. His lede sentence: "Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time." Read the whole thing.]
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Ike’s winds strengthened slightly overnight, to 105 mph, and the National Hurricane Center is now once again predicting a “major hurricane” at landfall — minimal Cat. 3 instead of maximal Cat. 2. [UPDATE, 11:00 AM: Or not.] But some folks in the media area are focusing way too much on this distinction. The difference between 110 mph and 115 mph winds is negligible, and the Saffir-Simpson Scale is a poor indicator of storm surge potential.
Even if Ike’s winds were to unexpectedly weaken to Cat. 1 force (or, heck, to tropical storm force), Ike would still be a “major hurricane” in terms of its massive storm surge. The surge, not the category, is the story! This is because of the sheer volume of water Ike is pushing across the Gulf, as I discussed at length yesterday. And that water is already in motion, inexorably bearing down on the gently sloping Texas coast. If coastal residents are taking this storm less seriously than they might because it’s “only” a Category 2, they are making a serious mistake. Eric Berger has an excellent post this morning about the predicted surge, with an updated SLOSH map.
In fact, the storm surge has already begun. In comments, Shreela (who will be live-Twittering the storm from Houston) wrote earlier this morning: “Most coastal people have evac’d already, and now the surge has covered some roads too much to evac from some locations. Since the evac was mandatory, rescue personal is relieved of any liability of those that chose not to eac.” That’s right — almost 18 hours before landfall, and the storm surge is already underway. As AccuWeather’s Jesse Farrell writes:
I’m really worried about the situation in Texas, with the video that I’m seeing on-air this morning. I mean, we’re seeing the water level near the top of the sea-walls and piers being destroyed already, and the storm’s 230 miles away — it’s not even cloudy on the coast yet! It’s an eerie and foreboding situation.
Eerie and foreboding, but perhaps not surprising, since Ike has already caused flooding in such faraway locales as Pensacola. I can’t say it enough: this is going to be a very severe storm surge event!!
[UPDATE, 12:57 PM EDT: Lou Minatti notes that the Galveston Strand is already flooding! You can see for yourself on the Galveston webcam page.]
You can watch the surge’s progress live, via NOAA’s tidal gauges. I find the Texas station map particularly helpful in locating the relevant stations to check. For example, here’s the plot for the Galveston Bay Entrance North Jetty:
Tidal gauge at 9:36 AM EDT. Live data here.
[UPDATE: That tidal link seems not to be working, for some reason. Here's one that is, and here's its live data plot.
(If you've visited this page multiple times, you may need to hit your browser's "Reload" or "Refresh" button to view the latest image below. Note that times are in GMT, which is 4 hours ahead of EDT. So, for example, "16:00" on the chart is 12:00 noon EDT, and 11:00 AM Houston time.)
]
As you can see, the surge began with this morning’s high tide, and is continuing to steadily climb, even as the predicted tide (the blue line) is supposed to be going out somewhat. Today’s bigger “low tide,” this evening, won’t be very “low” at all — water will just keep piling in — and then things will get really bad as the tide begins to come back in, along with the center of the storm, overnight.
Recall what Alan Sullivan wrote about Isabel, another storm with a geographically huge swath of winds and surge:
Isabel caused record flooding in the upper Chesapeake (and it had weakened to tropical storm) because it was big and slow moving enough to pile three successive high tides into the mouth of the bay, and not let them out again. Weather was improving and residents thought the storm was over when the final surge broke all records.
Ike is not expected to linger, so that, at least, is a blessing. But it’s so big that “successive high tides” will still be a problem.
The one major question mark remains Ike’s track, and specifically, whether it will make landfall up the coast, or down the coast, from Galveston Bay. The surge will be significantly lower if the center comes ashore just to Galveston’s northeast, keeping the “right-front quadrant” away from the bay. Residents therefore need to hope for northward, not westward, wobbles in Ike’s track. Unfortunately, the 5am EDT discussion stated: “IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…BUT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.”
The satellite loop shows that Ike has indeed resumed its expected course (click “Trop Fcst Pts” to see the forecast track), but the westward wobble overnight already resulted in a tiny southward “bump” in the expected landfall point, as of the 5am forecast track. It was a very slight change, but it’s still a change in the opposite direction from what folks in the Galveston Bay area want to see. In Berger’s words:
A more northward turn, which might spare . . . Galveston Island a catastrophic storm surge, has not yet happened. And with landfall due to occur in less than 18 hours, time is running out.
P.S. As the SLOSH surge map shows, the Port Arthur area is actually expected to get the worst of Ike’s surge on the current track, even though the center is forecast to hit Galveston Island. This is a consequence of Ike’s strange structure. (As Alan Sullivan says, “The wind maximum remains far removed from the center, and there is no real eye.”)
Don’t get me wrong, the surge will still be catastrophic in Galveston Bay on this track — we’re talking about the difference between 18-22 feet (in Galveston Bay) and 22-24 feet (near Port Arthur), so it’ll be bad in both places — but let’s not neglect the folks in the Port Arthur region (and, for that matter, in low-lying southwestern Louisiana), who will take a severe blow, but are likely to be completely overshadowed by whatever happens in Houston/Galveston.
P.P.S. Sullivan, incidentally, dissents somewhat from the projections:
Extreme surge scenarios are being propounded for this storm. I suspect we will learn that they are excessive. Ike is too broad and weak to follow models based on the tight core structure of a normal hurricane. The danger will arise not so much from the height and speed of surge; but from its duration, and the immense wave heights built in the huge storm. I do not believe any location will be as severely affected as Mobile Bay in Katrina, where surge heights really did exceed twenty feet. But the lesser surge of Ike will be spread along a much greater length of coast. It will be very destructive.
Analogy: The elevation of ocean surface resembles a pimple in a typical hurricane. Ike’s deformation of the sea will resemble a hive — broader and flatter.
P.P.P.S. Houblog is blogging from the Houston area. If you know of other folks with regularly-updated liveblogs, let me know! [UPDATE: Dr. Melissa Clouthier will be liveblogging, and live-Tweeting, too.]
UPDATE: Earlier, in a “programming note,” I mentioned that I was scheduled to appear on George Putnam’s syndicated radio show, “Talk Back,” at 3:20 PM EDT today, to talk about Ike. However, sadly, George Putnam died this morning, and the interview has been canceled. Guest-host Chuck Wilder will be devoting today’s broadcast to a tribute to Mr. Putnam, who was 92. R.I.P., George Putnam.
I just looked at a RGB satellite image, and it looked like the eye is back.
Thanks for all your work in compiling and interpreting this information.
Is there going to be a Galveston left after an 18′ plus surge? And what levels of Surge can the old and the new refinery portions withstand?
I’m quoted, hee hee 8^)
They followed up on those Surfside people refusing to evacuate. There were 6 residences initially refusing, but 3 changed their minds once roads were impassable. One of the groups that changed their mind chose to wade across the road (no reason given, my guess: crazy?)
One of the groups still refusing are husband and wife, and it sounded like their reason for staying was because they had a dog (many shelters are accepting pets supposedly). Finally the police requested they leave identifying marks on their house, as well as on their bodies, in many places…on both!
Did you get the Lou Minatti blog that has a sad picture of the Galveston Strand already with street flooding? No rain yet folks.
If you or anyone you know live in the immediate coastal strip in an area where an evacuation has been mandated or recommended, please get help now. Use of 911 would be completely justifiable. Your egress routes may already be blocked, or, your may find yourself swamped as you try to drive out. I have been hammering this point home and will make it again. Do not think of this as a hurricane. Think of it as a northern “perfect storm” type event. You may or may not be aware of the tragedy which befell Holland during the 1950s, prior to its current generation of sea defenses. Like the Gulf, Holland has a wide continental shelf and a very shall coastal profile. And like a large northern cold core cyclone, this storm has a very wide fetch of moderately strong wind, which as set into motion a force unlike that of a normal hurricane. This is not a sharp peak of surge over a small area. It is a broad bump of surge over a broad area. It may span multiple tidal cycles, and on top of it are guaranteed to be large waves (due to the immense fetch exposed to the moderate winds).
To help wrap your arms around this further, let me give additional analogies. Anyone ever seen footage of big wave surfing at Maverick’s? Or rough seas at the Columbia River Bar? Now, imagine this with your shallow coastal profile and wide continental shelf. (The Pacific profile is a like a cliff and there is almost no continental shelf). The volume of water’s rise can surge substantially, in your case. The force which overtops a San Francisco Bay levee by a few inches will flood entire coastal communities in your case. GET OUT NOW!!!!
Tell the people who stay that the Coast Guard is going to bill people the cost of helicopter fuel for the rescue they’ll have to perform after the storm. That’ll scare them if Ike doesn’t.
Back about 10 years ago I witnessed on a small scale what you are going to incur. I personally fought overtopping levees on SF Bay, due to a massive Gulf of Alaska storm which gave us residuals on the order of 6 feet. See my comments above. A 6 foot residual with cliff like coastal profile, if you get my drift. Your profile is like flat as a board in comparison. This is a tragedy unfolding unless something unlikely happens, such as a freak sudden offshore wind even, pray to the Lord for a miracle.
Florida and Mississippi have been experiencing Ike’s storm surge for two days now. This should give an idea of what Texas is facing. Ike is going away from us and yet we are still having a storm surge.
Hey Brendan,
I’ll be live blogging it later an tweeting it too.
Melissa
This has been an amazing storm on a number of levels and I hope we realize that the wind speed alone should not be the ultimate judge of a hurricane’s impact. This storm is larger than Katrina in terms of actual size and despite having lower wind speed, has producing more kinetic energy than Katrina did at landfall. Not all hurricanes are alike and even the same storm can change size and shape over time.
Galveston better be praying that the center of this storm goes just east of them, for their sake. It’s not going to be pretty in the least along the Texas coast tonight.
Tom, Phillyweather.net
This is the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, probably 300 miles from Ike.
http://blog.nola.com/northshoreview/2008/09/hurricane_ike_storm_surge_floo.html
Quote of the day from SciGuy’s chat:
”
[Comment From Ron]
I am in Dallas, should I leave?
2:16 Eric Berger: Yes. Your county commissioners think a black hole is a racist term. I’m not sure I’d want to be governed by them.
“
Heh.
On a more serious note:
Q: How long will Galveston be closed
A: If the storm comes in west of Galveston Bay, for a long, long time. I do not believe the island will be the same as we have known it unless the storm comes in over Bolivar Peninsula or further east.
I saw that. THAT’S chilling. I hadn’t heard Eric say it that strongly yet – I knew he was chastising the idiots staying on Galveston (YOU’RE ON AN ISLAND! IN THE MIDDLE OF A BAY! WITH ONE ROAD ON AND OFF THAT WILL BE FLOODED! AND A HURRICANE IS HITTING! WHY ARE YOU STILL THERE?! Sorry, had to vent there.), but wasn’t sure what he thought the long term effects would be. I’ve always wondered when Galveston would be hit again – it has always been vulnerable, and it wasn’t a century and a half ago that it was totally DESTROYED by a hurricane.
Also, I’ve gleaned that people in a suburb named “Katy” seem to be really concerned for some reason, when apparantly, they have no need to be.
I’m not surprised that the Strand is under a bit of water, as it’s on the far north side of the island and is only a few feet above sea level. It can flood even in a heavy rain.
They are sending people to Ball High School as the refuge of last resort — I lived three blocks from there for five years and used to walk my dog around the school every morning. The San Luis Hotel, where the city officials are bunkered (and one of my wife’s friend’s husband will be), is on the Seawall but elevated an additional 30 feet more, so it should be fine, though they are in for a long night.
Re: Katy — Heh. Indeed.
Sullivan, in comments: “OK. I’m going to be a bit brutal. If landfall is SW of Galveston, I think the place will be a total loss. But it’s just a little resort town, really. It’s the industry of Houston that I’m worried about. Not only could we be looking at the most expensive hurricane in history, but the destruction of energy infrastructure could put the nation in real difficulty. We have refused to build infrastructure for many years; now we may lose some of what we have.”
Actually, Galveston is more than just a resort town, it has one of the key facilities for biodefense research in the country. The Galveston National Lab was built post 9/11 to do research on diseases that terrorists might use and they just completed the building, which you can watch ride out the storm on the construction webcam: http://www.utmb.edu/webcams/GNLcam.htm
The government has $167 million in this building and it was designed to ride out a storm like this, so it will be interesting to see how it does.
Oh, and UTMB is like the fourth or fifth largest employer in the Houston/Galveston area, so there would be a huge economic impact on the area if Galveston is a total loss.
Excellent blog again Brendan. I’m here safe and cosy in Cardiff, Wales, and I’m utterly gripped by this. Also been following Eric’s site and the Houston video news feeds. I’m amazed more people haven’t gotten out of there. I saw some news footage on the KHOU.com online feed and it was showing a guy nailing boards to the windows of his beachfront property on the west side of Galveston! Incredibly surreal.
Is this 40% not evacuated thing really true? What’s the source? Why do you think people haven’t moved out? There was Rita of course, but I wonder if the ‘squib’ that was Gustav (of course, try telling that to the poor people who lost their shore homes) combined with Nagin’s (sort of justified) ‘get out or die’ comments has caused harumphing.
People really need to get out.
Peter – This *may* be our “January 1953.” The USA’s coastal storm defenses have unfortunately not matched the level of coastal development. None of the disasters to date has been enough to wake people up.
Steve, scary words man, but I fear true. The North Sea flood came during the night too, much like Ike. Details about that one here – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953 – basically a massive storm surge that flooded East Anglia in England and the coast of Holland, killing 2,000 people. It’s known as ‘The Great Storm’ here. Trying to tell people here how bad this is, and I’m getting a lot of surprised faces. I’m not sure how many believe me, but I’ve convinced my housemates enough for them to cuss with surprise. The BBC is more concerned about the non-fatal Channel Tunnel fire. I’ve been passing Brendan’s, Eric’s and Jeff’s comments on to my fave forum BETEO (Be Excellent to Each Other) with my own thoughts and they’re paying notice, but I don’t think they quite believe the figures I’m throwing about.