Just a quick update: Eric Berger writes that the computer models analyzing Hurricane Ike’s future have “clustered” around a track that takes the storm toward South Florida in 5-6 days. (See here.) Intensity estimates vary, but one important model, the HWRF, shows a 140-mph hurricane slamming Miami on Tuesday:
Of course, you can’t trust a five-day consensus forecast, let alone a five-day forecast from an individual computer model, with any degree of precision — and the models often overstate intensity — but, just to be clear, Ike is a real threat. Certainly, he is expected to be a major hurricane (i.e., 115 mph or above) at landfall, if he makes landfall. Ike will weaken tonight and tomorrow, but don’t let that fool you. Re-strengthening is expected.
Alan Sullivan, in Dania Beach, writes: “I just booked a room in Fort Myers. We’re getting out on Monday, if this thing is still on track.”
A bullet was dodged with Gustav. May it be again with this hype worthy storm.
Meanwhile, the NHC cry wolf with Hanna. Shame on them.
There are storms and there are storms.
Focus on the real threats.
Looks like I’ll be going to see my step brother at UCF sooner than I thought. I really really hate living in South Florida.
Has anyone ever ‘ranked’ the various models by accuracy of forecasts?
If it hits SE FL that strong, SW FL won’t be that much of a picnic. And ala Katrina, it might restreghten over the Gulf
Hey, who cut your hair?