The much-feared “rapid intensification” happened overnight, as Gustav exploded into a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It’s expected to get stronger. Meanwhile the expected track continues to target the western two-thirds of Louisiana, though some models anticipate a left turn toward Texas at the tail end of the forecast.
It appears increasingly unlikely that Gustav will be “another Katrina” for New Orleans, let alone something worse (though it’s still not impossible; New Orleans is well within the cone of uncertainty). But “another Besty” remains a live possibility. Evacuation is still appropriate.
I’ll have much more to say shortly after noon, once my eight-month-old daughter goes down for a nap. (Continuous hurricane-blogging is a little more difficult for me now than it was three years ago!)
as a new orleanian, that’s a bittersweet possibility. We’re ready, civil-services are ready, but our infrastructure isn’t done being made ready, so a storm that hits elsewhere is good. Except for them. I hope this inspires speedier work after this is over.
My uncle and his family spent quite a while on their roof after Betsy put 8-9 feet of water into St. Bernard and the lower 9.
My family did without electricity for almost a week.
Betsy did not flood west of the Industrial Canal since the levees held.
This is an very well organized evacuation this time. I am impressed that we are affluent enough to evacuate dogs and cats with tags keyed their owners’ tags.
If the course changes and goes in over Grande Isle like Betsy but on a more northern passage, it could be worse than Betsy.
The FQ is about empty right now. Folks are getting out of Dodge.
The Key West NOAA radar shows the eye very clearly:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BYX&loop=yes
Brendan, you are providing a great service to us weather laypersons. Living in Arizona, my hurricane experience is minimal (unless you count Miami playing in the Fiesta Bowl), so I appreciate your insights. Thanks!