As of 5pm EDT, Hurricane Watches have been issued from just east of Galveston Bay in Texas to the Florida/Alabama border.
More imminently, Cuba is about to get clobbered by a high-end Category 4 hurricane — now up to 150 mph sustained winds, with a pressure of 942 millibars. (Category 5 begins at 156 mph.) Pray for the people in its path; the affected areas will be devastated. Dr. Jeff Masters writes:
This will be a massive disaster for Cuba, as portions of the stretch of coast to the right of where Gustav will make landfall are heavily populated. Furthermore, Gustav’s hurricane-force winds extend out 60 miles from the eye, meaning that the western reaches of the capital city of Havana will receive a formidable blow. Havana’s construction is fairly dilapidated, and Category 1 hurricane winds will do heavy damage. Adding to the catastrophe will be rainfall amounts of up to 25 inches, causing dangerous fresh-water flooding. Gustav is likely to be one of the five most damaging hurricanes in Cuban history.
Here’s a close-up satellite loop of the storm’s approach.
Below, you can see what a slightly broader view looked like at 4:15 PM EDT:
Beyond Cuba, forecasters are getting more confident in Gustav’s track through the Gulf, according to the latest NHC discussion:
THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HWRF…UKMET…AND NOGAPS…WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE…HAVE COME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND ECMWF…RESULTING IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED…HOWEVER…IN A CONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST…ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE [i.e., Monday afternoon instead of Monday night]. WHILE THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS…THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY EXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
Here’s the current forecast track:
Again, for the latest on Louisiana’s preparations, visit the Times-Picayune‘s New Orleans Hurricane Center.
PJ Media appreciates your comments that abide by the following guidelines:
1. Avoid profanities or foul language unless it is contained in a necessary quote or is relevant to the comment.
2. Stay on topic.
3. Disagree, but avoid ad hominem attacks.
4. Threats are treated seriously and reported to law enforcement.
5. Spam and advertising are not permitted in the comments area.
These guidelines are very general and cannot cover every possible situation. Please don't assume that PJ Media management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment. We reserve the right to filter or delete comments or to deny posting privileges entirely at our discretion. Please note that comments are reviewed by the editorial staff and may not be posted immediately. If you feel your comment was filtered inappropriately, please email us at story@pjmedia.com.