Two new areas to watch in the Atlantic

Three days after Invest 98L went down to a watery grave soon after emerging off the African coast, the National Hurricane Center is now keeping an eye on two new tropical waves: Invest 99L (labeled “1” in the map below) and Invest 90L (labeled “2”).

The orange and yellow coloring, respectively, mean that 99L is given a “medium” (20-50%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, while 90L is given a “low” (less than 20%) chance. However, 90L is probably more likely to threaten land at some point — if it ever develops into anything, and that’s a very big if at this point — because of its lower latitude, and because 99L is expected to encounter harsh conditions shortly after the 48-hour window.

Here’s what the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook had to say about these waves:

1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE [i.e., 99L] OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER [i.e., 90L] ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

Computer models are notoriously unreliable at this early stage, but for what it’s worth, here’s what the track models are currently saying about these waves:

As you can see, 90L — if it develops — is seen as more likely to head west toward the Lesser Antilles, which implies a possible eventual threat to the U.S. mainland, whereas 99L is seen as more likely to recurve harmlessly out to sea. Like I said, there is enormous possibility for error in the track models at this stage, before the waves have even formed into anything. But it also makes intuitive sense that 90L would stay further south, since it’s already significantly to the south of 99L.

Anyway, certainly nothing to worry about at this point. But stay tuned, and I’ll let you know if either of these systems amount to anything.