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Your ♡bamaCare!!! Fail of the Day

May 5th, 2014 - 7:28 am

Enrollments — surprise! — aren’t what they need to be. David Hogberg has the numbers:

Sign-ups of the crucial 18-34-year-old cohort jumped from 25% in early March to 28% at the end of the enrollment period. That’s not a surprise given that young people are likely to be disporportionately represented among people who do things at the last minute. But the fact that over half of that age group chose their plan during the last month should worry ObamaCare supporters. People who are flakey enough to wait until the last minute are probably also flakey when it comes to paying premiums. Thus, that 28 percent number will decline and it will, of course, be no where near the 38 percent the Obama Administration says is needed to keep the risk pools stable. (FYI: The Kaiser Family Foundation says the low number of 18-34-year-olds doesn’t matter much. Seth Chandler says they are wrong.)

While the 18-34-year-old cohort has been dubbed the “young and healthy,” a more accurate moniker might be “young and somewhat healthy.” 68 percent of 18-34-year-olds on the federal exchanges chose a silver plan.

Those Silver plan purchases are the telling detail. If you’re young and healthy, you buy a catastrophic plan if you buy insurance at all. If you’re young and not-so-healthy, you pay up front for more comprehensive coverage. So it would seem that the Young Invincibles are still sitting out, and the Young Hacking Coughs are the ones signing up.

Given the generous subsidies and the higher payouts, it looks like the YHC’s might bust the budget and the exchanges.

Comments are closed.

Top Rated Comments   
It's insuring bankruptcy for all of us!
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
My guess is that young people just looked at the plans assumed the silver plan was some kind of happy medium between the bronze and the gold plans without ever considering the specifics. Don't assume it was a rational or informed choice.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Isn't it common sense that the young who sign up will not be a cross-section of the young, but will be concentrated among the sickest young?

I spent most of my 20's uninsured and didn't care in the least. I was also poor. If I were forced to buy something that I saw as useless, I'd buy the cheapest something I could. In the case of Obamacare, that means paying the penalty.

I'll get insurance when I get sick, if I get sick. Because I can.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (18)
All Comments   (18)
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Why would someone under 26 sign up for Obamacare? They can be covered under their parents plans after all.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
There is an additional group of subsidies available to those below 250% of the poverty line. These aren't the same as the premium subsidies. They're additional subsidies for "cost sharing" (your out-of-pocket costs), so if you get these additional subsidies, they lower the deductible for you, and reduce the copays and coinsurance percentages.

(For example, your plan might normally have a $5000 deductible, with $300 copay for an ER visit, and $6250 out-of-pocket limit. With this extra cost-sharing subsidy, your deductible might turn into $500, with a $20 copay for an ER visit and an out-of-pocket limit of $1500.)

The trick is that this extra "cost sharing" subsidy is only available if you get a silver plan, not for the other levels, for some reason. So if your income is under 250% of poverty level, you get considerably more bang for the buck if you get a silver plan. My guess is that if the income distribution and subsidy levels were available, we'd see that the high numbers who chose a silver plan were mostly in that group with the cost-sharing subsidies.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
It might also be that relatively well-off, committed lefties decided to put their money where their mouths are finally.

Doubt it, but until we have more facts, it IS possible.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
We should cheer that the young are not as stupid as Obamacare supporters thought.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Personal Responsibility" is SO 20th century!! In 1973, when I was 21 & landed my first good job that offered "Medical Insurance" (we've REALLY GOT to STOP calling it "Health Insurance"...it's "Medical Insurance" or even more accurately "Sick Care Insurance"), my parents warned me that I was no longer on their policy & therefore FULLY RESPONSIBLE for my own Insurance, both Premiums (payroll deduction) AND co-pays & they would no longer "help me out"!! So I did without "luxury items" (such as a car & cable TV, just like I am doing now, & take the bus & use rabbit ears for TV). I learned a long time ago that "Health Care" is your lifestyle choices. I eat healthy organic foods, work out at the gym, keep my BMI between 20 & 23, meditate & maintain an overall positive attitude & I killed stage 3c ovarian cancer, (with the help of genius Dr's...this can't be done alone). We CANNOT expect to engage in risky behaviors (junk food, drugs, sedentary lifestyle, negative attitude) & expect to be healthy. Neither can we expect REAL proven preventative health solutions (herbals, vitamins, cannabis, gym membership, a juicer, organic food, acupuncture, yoga, etc.) to be covered by our "Medical/Sick Care Insurance"...they aren't really interested in "Health"...that's just a buzzword these days. The REAL difference with Obamacare in play, is the level of care we get when we do get sick is greatly reduced & typically the dollar figure is more than we paid before Obamacare. But as far as having an actual "Health Care Plan" I have NEVER had one, in 40+ years of various "Medical/Sick Care Plans ", NOT ONE has ever been about "Health"...that is what I alone do for myself, because I am SO 20th century with my notions about "Personal Responsibility"!!
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Not gonna lie, when there is a factual dispute between the Kaiser Family Foundation and some dude with a blog called (no joke) "acadeathspiral.com";, I'm gonna side with Kaiser.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
And the reason for that would be.... your utter ignorance of the Kaiser Family Foundation, and their long association with getting the government in involved in healthcare?

25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Heh. For once I had the nicer response.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
You might want to reconsider. Kaiser has been in the tank for ♡bamaCare!!! since the beginning, and some of their analysis has proven... rosy.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Stephen, this is really important. How do you do the heart shape in place of the H? Thanks!
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
What analysis of theirs has proven rosy? I am curious, as it seems like the admin is hitting their numbers in year 1 according to Gallup/RAND. Was Kaiser predicting even bigger things?
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
What numbers are they hitting? Enrollment is not the same as payment. Strangely, the administration is reluctant to release any payment figures. I wonder why that is. Don't you. Price increases and plan changes won't come out until October. Predictions don't look so good. Then there are the risk corridors. They are looking to be higher than predicted. Then, too, since Obama has negated a number of the revenue portions (employer mandate, nursing home, Medicare Advantage cuts), how much will this catastrophe cost. A higher deficit will not be considered "hitting their numbers"? Is a disapproval rate of over 51% for ObamaCare "hitting their numbers"?

Finally, the Kaiser paper on youth enrollments assumes that if there are 50% under enrollment (as in California), the enrollees would reflect the health of that population and not skew toward the sicker portions. That is, indeed, "rosy".
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
So that's the point of trillions in disruption?
So cronies could hit the numbers made up by cronies?
Theatre. Theatre of the Absurd.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
My guess is that young people just looked at the plans assumed the silver plan was some kind of happy medium between the bronze and the gold plans without ever considering the specifics. Don't assume it was a rational or informed choice.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
I was paying $50 a month for my invincible son's catastrophic plan. When that was cancelled he signed up for a subsidized bronze plan, I still pay about $50. It's bankruptcy insurance for me.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
It's insuring bankruptcy for all of us!
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Do you mean "ensuring"?
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
Isn't it common sense that the young who sign up will not be a cross-section of the young, but will be concentrated among the sickest young?

I spent most of my 20's uninsured and didn't care in the least. I was also poor. If I were forced to buy something that I saw as useless, I'd buy the cheapest something I could. In the case of Obamacare, that means paying the penalty.

I'll get insurance when I get sick, if I get sick. Because I can.
25 weeks ago
25 weeks ago Link To Comment
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