How Close are China and Japan to War?
Not a question you expect to see, in an age when major powers don’t fight one another directly anymore. Bad form, or some such. And surely the last time we all did that, the going was pretty grim. And yet that’s the question asked today by NRO’s Michael Auslin. Here’s the rub:
Especially raising tensions in the region is a passel of territorial disputes over islets that has pitted China against countries in southeast and northeast Asia and put Japan at odds with all its major neighbors. But the one key disagreement is between Japan and China in the East China Sea. There, an archipelago called the Senkaku Islands is claimed by Japan, Taiwan, and China. The islands sit near rich undersea oil and gas deposits, but, being situated just northeast of Taiwan, they also are in a crucial strategic location. They form the southernmost link in a chain of islands (including Okinawa and others) held by Japan that separate the East China Sea from the Pacific. The chain that ends with the Senkakus thus acts as a defensive barrier that conceivably could be used to prevent Chinese naval vessels from entering the wider Pacific.
Thus, Japan’s control of the islands presents a problem for Beijing. The history is murky, but Japanese control really didn’t start until the late 19th century. In 1945, the U.S. took over the Senkakus, and it returned them (along with Okinawa) to Tokyo’s administrative control in 1972. In recent years, however, basically since oil and gas were discovered nearby, China has reasserted a historical claim to the islands. Since the possibility of extractable energy reserves was discovered a decade ago, both Japan and China have tussled over whose islands (and resources) they really are.
One thing this Administration has gotten right is refocusing our force structure away from the Atlantic and into the Pacific. One thing Obama hasn’t gotten wrong, is allowing the smaller PacRim powers to flock towards us as China flexes its growing muscles. (To be fair, it would take a clusterfudge of colossal proportions to get that one wrong, as it mostly involves letting diplomatic nature take its course. We’re the outside power without territorial ambitions, and China is the scary-looking neighbor peeing on all the fences.)
Here’s another case where doing very little, other than reaffirming our historical and legal commitments to Japan, should be quite enough.
“To be fair, it would take a clusterfudge of colossal proportions to get that one wrong, ”
Dear Liar might view that as a challenge.
I’d rather have war break out in the Korean Peninsula than one between China & Japan. That would be real messy. And a huge hit to the world economy. And we’d be dragged into it.
The Japanese naval forces are more numerous and better equipped than a lot of people realize. It is a netcentric Aegis force. It has a force of very stealth air independent submarines. Missiles include Block 3 SAM’s, Tomahawks, Harpoons, and assorted close in air defense missiles. They have the equivalent of J-Star and C3 satellites tying it all together with land based F-15′s for fighter cover. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if they had naval mine laying capacity.
China’s got a big air force, but if they wanted to crack open the Senkaku Islands it would take a massive and sustained force to do so, against the force structure and technology that Toadold mentions. And China would be the aggressor in such a conflict, and there’s no way that they can do a “surgical strike” against the JSDF (SPECOPS just won’t cut it).
It would be too messy, and would essentially invite a much larger conflict that would require striking directly at Japan itself (which would result in massive civilian casualties). And a Japanese retaliatory strike (and possibly a South Korean one, as well) would definitely be in the works (no plan survives contact with the enemy), and I don’t know if China wants to risk it’s geo-political position on the hopes that they could take a resource rich but a politically insignificant series of islands on the cheap. Even President Obama would have to honor treaty obligations with Japan (or else face impeachment) if such a conflict arose.
Plus, if I was Obama (or the next president), I’d use the reckless actions of a rogue Chinese state to literally cancel all loan obligations that the US has with China. THAT would cripple China faster than anything else.
Japan may have the superior navy, but China has 10X the population and nukes. We might be able to stop China from nuking Japan, but we can’t stop them from overrunning Japan.
On the other side of the ledger is the fact that most of China’s neighbors are hostile. The best deterrent may be the real fear on the part of Chinese leadership that any sizable war would lead to an insurrection and opportunistic invasion on every side.
Minus the ability to neutralize the Japanese Self-Defense Maritime Force and to ground their air force as well, China has no hope of “overrunning” Japan.
The parallels to Germany and Britain in 1940 are striking.
The parallel I had in mind was Germany and Russia and the comment by Colonel Von Kielst. When an elephant goes to war with an army of ants, the elephant has lots of early success and will kill lots of ants, but eventually they will overwhelm him with numbers. China has more to throw against the Japanese Navy than just an inadequate navy and airforce. And the Japanese navy can’t be everywhere.
The problem with that comparison is that Germany and Russia share a land link. Japan is an island nation. Last time I checked China had enough sealift for approximately one division, and in a shooting war it wouldn’t have that for long (if the JMSDF can’t effect a 50% attrition each way they’re being paid too much). It’s not an elephant versus an army of ants, it’s an elephant against 500 ants followed by 200 ants followed by no ants.
The JMSDF doesn’t have to be everywhere, they just need to be in a position to oppose the Chinese amphib fleet, at least until that fleet is destroyed, then they can roam inside the first island chain interrupting shipping. The only way China doesn’t lose a war with Japan (or the US) is to use nukes. Nobody wins a nuclear war.
In the case of a war between China and Japan, the Chinese Military will be at a severe disadvantage in terms of leadership and technology. They could fall back on their manpower advantage, but that’s thin gruel for a Machine War. And if you have to use nukes to gain an *offensive* edge, you’ve lost the war, and invited complete annihilation of your own country.
China also knows full well that the vast majority of their population lives on their Eastern Seaboard, and their cities could easily be targeted for retaliation…….and they likely don’t have the air defense system to take on US/Japan/ROK/Australia/India’s missile launch systems (or air raids by F-22s and the JSF).
Given the proximity of the Senkaku Islands to Taiwan I wonder if this threat of war against Japan is really a cover for a play against Taiwan. I can’t see Teh One abandoning Japan but seeing him bail from Taiwan is not exactly a big mental stretch, and I doubt Japan would interfere (MacArthur’s Constitution be damned) in a straight China-Taiwan fight.
Obama can’t play “I vote present!!!” on any conflict along the Pacific Rim between China, Japan and/or Taiwan, considering that it would likely be a massive Chinese attack on either country would be well beyond a local event.
If he tried to fiddle with diplomatic pressure while Tokyo or Taipei burns, he’d be excoriated, and probably find himself impeached (on the grounds of incompetency and/or mental idiocity). Truman hated being the President that “lost” China, and Eisenhower (and JFK) hated being the President that “lost” Cuba. Obama at least understands this paradigm.
Excoriated in what media? The one that’s done everything imaginable for decades to appease Chinese sentiment regarding “its province?”
They wouldn’t just give him a pass on letting Taiwan go; they would cheer them on.
So, you think that the Asian (and European) media covering a Chinese takeover of Taiwan will go over smoothly? Hell, I can’t see Fox News or CNN covering it in any way to make Obama look good.
Especially with the mass casualties and war crimes that will happen (especially in the age of flip cameras/youtube/twitter)?
If Obama tried to pull some sort of “peace in our time” bullshit after such an event, he’d officially be “President Dickless.”