Here We Go Again, South Atlantic Edition
January 3rd, 2013 - 6:58 am
In an emotional open letter to the British prime minister, Cristina Kirchner, Argentina’s president, has called on him to honour a United Nations resolution dating from 1965 and start negotiations about handing over the islands.
Or else what? Britain has no cause to even read the letter, much less go about negotiating away the homes and lives of two-century British nationals. So if Kirchner is serious and not just playing up some jingoism for the home crowd, she must have an “or else” somewhere.
I know history repeats itself, but in the case of the Falklands, the first time was farce. What’s it going to be this time?
Dear Mrs Kirchner,
Nice Aircraft Carrier you have there, be a shame if something were to happen to it.
Yours Truly,
United Kingdom Submarine Command.
Located just 10 miles off your shores.
Argentine Navy learned that lesson w/ the Belgrano; their fleet would not leave port in a second round of hostilities.
Dear Mrs Kirchner,
A quick check of “The Google” reveals that your country no longer enjoys the service of an aircraft carrier since you scrapped your one remaining carrier back in the year 2000. It also appears that the bulk of your air force is still made up of A-4 Skyhawks, which as you will remember, were museum pieces during the last bit of unpleasantness +30 years ago.
We have the very latest Typhoon fighters as well as completely upgraded the Harriers in our inventory and a whole passel of new missile thingys.
Sadly, we also don’t have an aircraft carrier at the moment so that means that since you have telegraphed your intentions and we enjoy the services of spy satellites, we will have to move a contingent to Stanley directly. You see, “The Falklands” as we call them, are a sort of unsinkable aircraft carrier.
Not to worry though, we will still be here resting at periscope depth right outside of your lovely coastline enjoying some lovely tea.
Hugs and Kisses,
United Kingdom Submarine Command
Located just 10 miles off your shores.
Dear UK Submarine Command,
I assume you’ve heard of the Monroe Doctrine, yes? I doubt Britain will establish a naval blockade in the Western Hemisphere without at least tacit approval from my good friend in the Presidency of your former colonies. My good friend who has taken to referring to our future territories as “the Malvinas”. Well OK, he called them the “Maldives”, but we both know what he means, right?
Enjoy your tea.
Her Excellency,
Cristina Kirchner
Dear Mrs. Kirchner,
It appears we have something in common, that being a love for the constant stream of high quality comedic output that comes from of the man who currently occupies the office of President of the United States. Trust me, any man who sends an Ipod filled with his speeches to the Queen is right up there with Ricky Gervais and Benny Hill.
He says a lot of silly things, most of it while looking into a mirror. We try not to take too much meaning of it one way or the other, no one else does. Maldives, Malvinas, six of one, half dozen of another, right?
Look, we both know how this will end. There’s a referendum coming in Falklands and we both know that in the end, the inhabitants will vote to remain as they are and have always been – British. Why sully your departure from office with a messy “cant-win” war that will put you in the same category as the late General Galtieri?
Remember, it isn’t us you have to worry about, its your next door neighbor and long time adversary Brazil who has discovered free market economics as well as a whole boatload of exportable oil.
Oil? Oh now I’ve gone and spoiled it all by saying something stupid like “Offshore hydrocarbons” haven’t I.
United Kingdom Submarine Command
Located just 10 miles off your shores.
Quite right about the oil, quite right about any Naval confrontation . . . but Cameron is for damn sure no Thatcher.
but Britain no longer has Thatcher and we no longer have Reagan.
As was noted before, no-one has carriers anymore. Yeah, the Brits could deploy a squadron of Typhoons to Stanley. But those things require a lot of ground support. It would be very expensive to do that and impossible to keep them there for any length of time. Sure the Argentinians are in horrible shape. But they’re only a couple hours away. If they’re gonna take the islands, they need to do it now while the Brits can only bring 5 Daring class destroyers and one or two aging Trafalgar SSNs to the fight
Once the new Queen Elizabeth CVN is commissioned at the end of the decade, the Arggies won’t have a prayer.
Just the mention that any Brit SSN has been deployed to the South Atlantic will keep the entire Argentine fleet (such as it is) firmly moored in port.
That’s the funny thing about wars. They never move in a straight line. All battles and wars start when someone gets a not-so-wise idea to go do something to solve some perceived national slight but what they and no one ever really knows is how and where the war will end. You always think its going to be one thing and that it all remains known and under control, but just like a crack in a plate of glass, war always tends to shatter the world into all sorts of unexpected directions.
I dont worry about Argentina doing something to get back the Falklands. This is just a bit of poorly played kabuki theatre between Mrs. Kirchner and her constituents and the United Kingdom is playing a supporting role. What Mrs. Kirchner is doing is bargaining for rights to the newly discovered oil off the coast of the Falklands. Even by Argentine standards, she is also doing it badly of course, but you knew that already…
What I do worry about is that this sort of thing becomes the accepted standard of behavior between nations. Once that happens, once we find ourselves dealing with a hundred grievances around the globe being settled in the “old way”, then look out. Right now a very similar bit of theatre is being played out over the Spratly islands and a few other territorial disputes in the East China Seas. China is looking to get even with Japan, as well as remind the rest of Asia who is the new dominate power in that part of the world. If Argentina were to forcibly take back the Falklands and in the court of public opinion that were seen to be ok, it will invite others to do the same.
I humbly suggest that if that were to occur, we would have a very large problem on our hands. Its at this time I would like to gently remind all of you that roughly 98 years ago a small country in Europe tried to resolve its historical territorial differences with another small country in Europe and before it was over, millions of people died far beyond the borders of these two rather insignificant ethic national players and yet, the original dispute goes on unresolved to this day. When little Gavirl Pricip stood and shot Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo, he could have no idea that the war in Europe that he ignited with a single revolver would go on killing people until 1989.
More importantly, neither could Europe.
Can the UK defend the Falklands from Argentina? Let us hope that remains an academic question.
“I know history repeats itself, but in the case of the Falklands, the first time was farce. What’s it going to be this time?”
In light of Frank Martin’s commentary above I am going to answer “black comedy”.
Maybe Sean Hayes could follow his Three Stooges with a Marx Brothers-like remake of Duck Soup.
I rather like this response, courtesy of my colleagues on the other side of the Big Blue Pond:
http://www.fleetstreetfox.com/2013/01/dear-argentina.html?m=1