Did Windows Just Collapse?
If your smartphone or tablet is a real computer, then Microsoft’s share of computer sales has plummeted from 96% to just 35%. Here’s the chart from Cult of Android.
The problem is with how you define a computer — and I think that comes down to usage.
A ten-inch tablet is probably a perfectly good laptop (or even desktop) replacement for most people. The only things it doesn’t do well is store a metric crapload of files, or rip video. I also find that if I’m writing something longer than 300 words or so, I prefer to use a bluetooth keyboard instead of the screen. But essays, DVD rips, and terabytes of home-ripped DVD aren’t something a whole lot of people do.
A seven-inch tablet is mostly a “media consumption device,” as critics labeled the original 10-inch iPad. Held in portrait, the keys are too close together for touch typing. Held in landscape, and you can’t see enough of the screen. For reading, watching TV, or playing Angry Birds, a Nexus 7 or iPad mini is all you need. It’s still a laptop replacement for a certain market sector, but a smaller one.
And your smartphone? Fuggidaboudit. It’s a phone. It also does some great things (Star Wars Angry Birds comes to mind), but it’s just too small to replace anything. What it does is take a formerly single-purpose device (your phone) and turn it into an electronic Swiss Army knife of fun. I wouldn’t part with iPhone, but it can’t make me part with any other device, either.
That’s where the comparison falls apart. People don’t buy phones to replace their computers, so it’s silly to include them in a chart of computer marketshare. Tablets are a threat, but only a limited one — for the time being, that is.
So, no, Microsoft Windows hasn’t dropped to 35% of computer sales. It is still the king of desktop and laptop computing. But that doesn’t mean MS has nothing to worry about. They’ve failed to gain any penetration into mobile computing. Windows Phone 8 is a solid performer, but Android and iOS have already carved out the top and bottom of the cellular marketplace, leaving Microsoft’s late bloomer nowhere to squeeze in. And Surface… well, it’s headed towards a bargain bin near you.
Assuming there’s a Best Buy near you, which is becoming increasingly less likely.
Microsoft has missed out on the only growth market in computing today. It’s doubtful anything can knock Windows of its desktop/laptop roost in the medium term, but that’s no longer where the big money is.
I’m really sorry to split hairs here, but I found this annoying.
Microsoft does not make computers.
You are splitting hairs. Want me to split one? MS does make computers: The Surface RT and Pro.
Don’t forget about the Xbox.
Great post, I don’t have any prognostication but an observation that others have echoed: most people are content consumers not creators so the content delivery tools will continue to grow.
I made the mistake of predicting Apple’s shrinking influence on the PC except among the creative in 2006 and missed the whole tablet dynamic because tablets had been done before even if badly. While Apple did have a shrinking presence on the desktop and has fallen off in updating their PC lineup it exploded with the combination of the iPad, iPhone and mature distribution and monetization infrastructure. I think Microsoft with the unified Windows 8 product line (desktop, Tablet and Phone) is moving into overdrive in both tablet and cloud based services but I have no idea how it is going to end but it will be a great time to live.
Well, except that Apple still does a decent job on the high margin portable PC, where people are willing to spend high dollars on gaining a little bit better styling and a more convenience from thinness and low weight. (Don’t look at Stephen or he’ll know we are talking about him …)
Yup, no argument from this quarter. I have always been immune to the low weight advantage finding substantial laptops are small price for my peace of mind (mine).
I had high hopes for what Windows 8 could be — the idea had potential, I thought. Its execution has left me cold and I’ve decided as a result not to buy a tablet at all* unless my needs change radically.
(*I rooted my Kindle a couple of times, but while it was more useful when rooted it still wasn’t useful enough to be worth the extra trouble; the last time Amazon updated the OS and broke root, I decided not to bother a third time.)