Michigan Mittmentum?
The Electoral College redshift keeps expanding. Here’s Dan Blatt putting it all together:
Earlier today, the National Review’s Robert Costa referred to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennyslvania as “maybe states,” three “blue” states which could turn “red”.
Perhaps had he written later in the day, he might have added another state to that pile. His colleague Jim Geraghty reports “that the Obama campaign is buying a week’s worth of television ads in the Detroit market.“:
This is an ad purchase aimed at securing Michigan; it is not aimed at crossing into Ohio or any other state. Detroit’s radio market runs into Monroe County which borders the Buckeye State, but it does not cross over, as some metropolitan media markets do.
This is the eleventh-largest media market in the United States and one of the more expensive ones, particularly compared to the smaller cities that make up most key swing state markets.
With such a pricey ad market, as Ace puts it, “You don’t play there for fun.” Reporting on this news, Allahpundit speculates that “Team Mitt may be eyeing not only Oregon but even Washington state(!) as having turned more purplish than anticipated.”
It wasn’t all that long ago that Team Obama was boasting about making a play for Arizona. Set the Wayback Machine for April, right around the time Romney was securing the GOP nomination:
Obama strategists are simply following the same techniques they used in 2008 when putting states like North Carolina and Indiana into play. Then, too, there was much initial skepticism, though both states ended up going for Mr. Obama.
There was even talk from David Axelrod — even if ever-so-briefly — about Texas having some kind of future as a purple state. That talks seem a long time ago. Today he was on one of the cable networks doing the Flop Sweat Tango. By most accounts, he made Nathan Thurm look like Derek Flint.
Today? Obama is spending the very last Wednesday before the election touring New Jersey’s storm damage. No, I’m not saying New Jersey is in play — far from it. In fact, what Obama is doing is politically quite smart: He’s looking presidential. And that’s a feat he’s had difficulty pulling off these last four weeks.
But it also speaks to his weakness. Obama should be out campaigning hard in the swing states, raising money for relief like some other candidate I could mention.. Instead, Obama is doing what he can to nurture some health back into his enfeebled image.
And if Romney is feeling strong enough to push into Michigan (as I’ve been arguing for weeks he needs to), then image-bolstering photo ops is probably the best Obama can do.
I’m going to play Eeyore until Obama-hopefully- concedes next Tuesday. This election has me really unsettled.
A Detroit News Poll puts it at 45% Mitt to 47% Obama in Michigan.
That this state, the ne plus ultra of blue state model suck and failure could be in play at this time is fantastic.
It doesn’t help Obama that the Unions here are pulling out all the stops to expand their power with Prop 2 and Prop 4 and the state residents are finally figuring out what that will mean for their wallets.
If that poll is correct, there’s 8% undecided/other. Figure 1% other. Figure the challenger picks up 2/3 of the remaining 7%, or 4.67%, while the incumbent picks up 2.33%. That’s 49.67% for Romney and 49.33% for Obama. Any tie in a Democrat state goes to the Democrat, so Obama is still winning Michigan.
But it’s awfully close…
MI has a Republican Governor, State Legislature, and Sec of State. So in terms of ability to get away with vote fraud, it’s not a “Democrat” state.
Yesterday I was sure Sandy killed Romney’s momentum with “gettable” voters. But with Leno making Benghazi jokes, I’m not so sure. At any rate, I think we can count on the Obama campaign to eventually overplay their hand on the storm. If “he’ll eliminate FEMA” is really the best they can do, maybe they’ve jumped the shark after just one day.
“In fact, what Obama is doing is politically quite smart: He’s looking presidential. And that’s a feat he’s had difficulty pulling off these last four weeks.”
Don’t you mean years, not weeks?
I’m in Toledo, so it’s hard for me to gauge the rest of Ohio, but the GOP did sweep statewide elections two years ago. And about the only reason Strickland won his one term as governor six years ago was that Taft wasn’t very good and had a minor scandal, dinging the Republican brand.
Saw the following tweet from Phillip Klein:”One of two things now seem possible: 1) Massive, widespread error by state pollsters. or 2) Obama gets reelected.”
I would say that systematic fraud in the polls is more likely, but that’s just me.
For months now, the internals on most polls — almost every single one — have been at odds with the headline numbers.
There are assumptions about Democrat turnout and voter ID that just don’t mesh with reality.
If you assume that Democrats will turn out at a higher rate than they did in 2008, you’re certain to predict that Obama will win this year. If, on the other hand, you assume somewhat less of a turnout (i.e., reality), you’re not necessarily going to get that result.
You what I’ll love best if Romney wins? Besides Obama losing? It will be watching all of the people claiming that the polls = actual votes swallow their collective tongues. Nate Silver, I’m looking at you and your special sauce.
Derek Flint?
Wow, outta left field, that one.
It’s interesting that the Civil War is being repeated, with switched roles.
The South has become largely Republican, favoring less servitude to government, while the North has become largely Democrat, favoring servitude to government.
Who won the Civil War? I’m no longer certain.
Not to open *that* can of worms — but you can make the case that the Confederacy was more libertarian and more conservative than the Union. (It’s not a perfect case.)
Meanwhile back at the ranch R/R gets endorsed by a Salem Oregon newspaper…Huh?
Cue Peter Venkman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0&feature=youtu.be&t=17s