Assume for argument’s sake that Obama carries Ohio putting him at 255 electoral votes, and leaving Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin in play.
The RCP Average in all three states is within the margin of error, and my numbers actually have all three under one point for Obama as of today. Polling shows there are 3% to 4% of persuadables in each of those states so there is enough room for Romney to outsprint Obama to the finish in any or all of them.
Averaging the last dozen national poll results Romney is +18% with white voters, -27% with Hispanics and +13% with seniors. Leveraging these current leads and looking at the demographics of the individual states it is very possible that Iowa and Wisconsin could fall to Romney.
From there, other dominoes begin to fall.
The real kicker might prove to be NV. I’m getting conflicting reports on exactly what’s going on there. Well, maybe not conflicting — but certainly confusing. Upstate, everyone tells me the enthusiasm for Romney is off the chart. In Clark County, however, I hear that Harry Reid has turned the Dirty Tricks Engine up to Ludicrous Speed.
I’m sure we’d all like to think that throngs of plucky happy country voters can overcome the corrupt big city political machine. But let’s give Reid credit where it’s due. He is capable of any dirty trick LBJ was ever able to get away with in Texas, only without the charm, concern for the welfare of others, or human soul.
And lucky Harry, he has throngs of idiot California migrants to work with. The locusts are finished with CA after decades of eating the life out of the Golden State, and it looks like they’ll destroy NV in record time. Lucky, lucky Harry.