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Wargaming the Electoral College

October 24th, 2012 - 10:25 am

Before we get to the latest map, let’s haul out the battleground chart. States in blue are ones Obama won in 2008, and red means McCain won it that year. Little old Missouri is looking a little lonesome there.

Also looking lonesome is the “Safe Obama” column. All of the movement has been rightward. Part of this is no surprise — a natural rebound to the GOP following Obama’s big wave election. Although if the last four years hadn’t been full entirely of Fail and Suck, we wouldn’t be talking about any kind of GOP rebound. Instead, we’d be talking about “the permanent Democratic majority,” and without giggling.

If AFP, American Crossroads, and Romney-Ryan choose to, they could easily add MN and WI to the list of battlegrounds. I’ve been arguing this for weeks. It’s now or never. And it would be a big disappointment if Romney is happy to play small ball when there’s a big-ass mandate to be won, and Senate races still hanging in the balance.

On the other hand, Romney — the most moderate of the GOP candidates — was able to secure the nomination from a Tea-fueled electorate, and won all three debates in three different ways, so there’s a chance maybe he knows more than I do.

Anyway. It’s gut-check time, so let’s haul out the map.

Mitt has the big Mo, which is why I expect IA and OH both to break his way. And NV? Word on the streets of Las Vegas is that Harry Reid’s machine has been bussing people in from who-knows-where to do you-know-what. I don’t expect upstate Mormon enthusiasm to be able to overcome dirty politics and dirty unions. The fix is in, big-time, in the Silver State.

There’s word, too, of rigged voting machines in NC, but I don’t expect even the Democrats to be able to achieve a big enough margin of cheating to overcome Romney’s advantage there.

So there you have it. As of now, it looks like a squeaker for Mitt. If he’d get more aggressive, he could pluck off a blue state or two, and really hammer this corrupt and inept administration right into the ground.

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