The Telling Detail
Rasmussen has President Obama up 51% – 43% in Connecticut, with 3% undecided and the remaining 3% for various third party candidates. So, let’s face it: Mitt Romney is not going to take Connecticut.
Of course, Romney was never-ever going to take CT. Not in a million election years. It’s one of the most reliably Democrat states in the Union.
What’s interesting is, Obama won the state last time around with nearly 61% of the vote. He’s down ten points from 2008 in, as I just said, “one of the most reliably Democrat states.” And it isn’t like Obama has a big ton of undecideds to win back from the middle. Connecticut voters have pretty much made up their minds: They still like Obama, but they’re out of love with Obama.
So how do voters in purple states like Colorado or Ohio really feel?
Do you think Maine could go 3-1? They did before.
More shockers: Romney concedes California without a fight. Obama wins Illinois by a wide margin.
Romney will take both Connecticut and Oregon. I predict that the election night results will be essentially complete ( for a big Romney win) before it moves out of the eastern time zone.
In other news, in California, The Brown Tax Initiative will go down in defeat and Proposition 32 will also pass.
Connecticut County by County results for 2010:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=9&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3
Linda Mcmahon(R) is currently leading her Democratic opponent.
Oregon County by County results for 2010( A reminder, Oregon is an entirely vote-by-mail state:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=41&year=2010&f=0&off=5&elect=0
Romney’s starting from a base of a seriously depressed Repub turnout for McCain. He ain’t gonna lose any of those people and they’re all going to show up to vote.
Obama start’s w/ a hyper-motivated Dem base and an enthralled undecided vote.
Throw in a craptacular economy, unpopular Obama-care, “you didn’t build that”, Arab spring, and on, and on…
One of these guys is going to have to work a lot harder than the other just to tread water.
IL might not be as wide this time, it’ll go redder.
Sampling error is 4.5%. Given that and the fact that some number of 2008 Obama voters might not show up (and some GOP voters who stayed home in 2008 might come out this time to rectify their mistake) there is a chance the state could turn red.
I don’t want to appear cocky but I would not be surprised at a complete meltdown of Obama support by election day. I think he will seriously underperform what will even then be poor polling for Obama.
I think that Obama will set a record in modern history for Presidential turnaround to the bad. Jimmy Carter will be hopping up and down in joy for being bumped off last place.
Purely anecdotal, but I recently found out that a co-worker (here in SW Ohio) was an Obama supporter. No big deal for me, as we have always gotten along. I generally avoid politics at work unless I know a person’s positions real good. It’s not worth the hassle.
What I did find interesting is hearing her talk about how Obama gutted the work requirements enacted by Clinton’s welfare reform. Not happy.
In fact, she sounded quite disappointed.
One wonders what else has disappointed her.
P.S. Have received only one call so far (voicemail), and that was from the Ohio GOP.